As if this last year hasn't been strange enough, now we get the Oscar nominations in March. That means I get to make my nomination predictions and fill out my March Madness bracket in the same week... what a time to be alive. That also means it's been over a year since Parasite's upset win at last year's Oscars—perhaps the last truly good thing to happen in the world before COVID hit. The intervening year (-plus) in cinema has been an interesting one, with almost no one seeing movies in theaters (I saw Tenet twice over the summer and just a couple things so far this year) and everyone mostly watching films from their couch. No one really knows what kind of effect, if any, that will have on this year's Oscar field. So my annual predictions on the eve of nomination morning are even more poorly informed than usual. I did pretty well last year—38/44—but I don't think I'll come close to that this year. Let's start, as usual, with the screenplay categories and go from there. (Nominees are listed in approximate order of likelihood.)
^ = early winner prediction
* = haven't seen it
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland^
Ruben Santiago-Hudson – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Kemp Powers – One Night in Miami...
Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton – The Father*
Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern & Nina Pedrad – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
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Other contenders:
Jonathan Raymond and Kelly Reichardt – First Cow
M.B. Traven, Rory Haines, and Sohrab Noshirvani – The Mauritanian*
Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies – News of the World*
There are always surprises on nomination morning, but I'm not expecting anything crazy here. The biggest surprise I can think of would be Borat missing out... but would that really be that shocking? Zhao, Santiago-Hudson, and Powers are all sure things, and Zeller and Hampton seem very likely as well for a film I haven't yet seen (and, honestly, would only watch if it were nominated). Borat seems solid for the fifth slot, especially with Cohen also likely to be nominated in Supporting Actor for a different film. But if voters elect to pass on it, it could be any of the other three (or something really cool that I don't even know about). First Cow was a critical darling, Maritanian is super topical, and News of the World is a Tom Hanks western, so all are strong contenders.
Wishful thinking: Leigh Whannell – The Invisible Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7^
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari*
Jack Fincher – Mank
Will Berson and Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah
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Other contenders:
Pete Docter, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers – Soul
Darius Marder and Abraham Marder – Sound of Metal
Andy Siara – Palm Springs
This category almost always has a surprise or two, and I'm expecting chaos here in the morning. I *think* the first three are locks, and I have a hard time seeing the Academy—changing although it is—skipping over a film like Mank, written by David Fincher's deceased father. And Judas seems to be coming on incredibly strong here late in this delayed Oscar season, so I think it sneaks in as the fifth nominee. But Pixar can never be counted out in this category, and Sound of Metal is very well regarded (for a reason: it's very good). I almost wouldn't care about the rest of the nominees if Palm Springs, one of my favorites of last year, got nominated, but I'm not holding my breath.
Wishful thinking:
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Kitty Green – The Assistant, Quentin Dupieux – Deerskin, Thomas Vinterberg and Tobias Lindholm – Another Round
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Olivia Colman – The Father*^
Youn Yuh-jung – Minari*
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian*
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy*
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Other contenders:
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Helena Zengel – News of the World*
This is the toughest category of them all to predict—and I've seen almost none of the contenders. I think—let's make that another *think*—Colman and Youn are locks, but after that, who knows. Foster seems to be coming on strong after a surprise Golden Globes win, so she seems like a safe bet. At one point or another in the race, Seyfried, Close, and Bakalova could all have been considered the frontrunner, but now it wouldn't surprise if any of the three missed out. I think it'll be Bakalova, whose Globes loss might have been a foreboding sign. Close—whose movie I have absolutely no interest in watching—is a sentimental favorite and could even win this thing, and Seyfried would be a deserving first-time nominee for a film I liked but didn't love. But watch out for Zengel—child actresses always do well in this category
Wishful thinking: Elizabeth Debicki – Tenet
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah^
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami...
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Alan Kim – Minari*
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Other contenders:
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
Jared Leto – The Little Things
I'm not expecting a ton of craziness here. Kaluuya is the presumed frontrunner after his Globes win, Cohen is his potential foil, and Odom playing Sam Cooke on the heels of Hamilton are the easy top three. Boseman seems a good bet for two posthumous nominations, and he might wind up being the only major nom for Bloods (his role was too small for my tastes and wouldn't get my vote, though). The final nomination is totally up for grabs, however. Raci's performance is well regarded (although too subdued for my tastes), and Jared Leto somehow keeps getting nominated for things, so he wouldn't be a surprise. But Minari seems to have a ton of momentum, so I think the final slot will go to its child star. (I'll be seeing the film this week, which I'm really looking forward to.)
Wishful thinking: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Michael Stuhlbarg – Shirley
BEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman^
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman*
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday*
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Other contenders:
Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy*
Rosamund Pike – I Care A Lot*
I don't see much room for any drama here. Mulligan, McDormand, and Davis are all locked in as the three main contenders. Mulligan is solidly the frontrunner right now, and I think McDormand more than Davis looms as the top threat. (She would be a supporting performance on my non-existent ballot.) Kirby seems likely to be in the field for a film I'm looking forward to watching, and Day's Globes upset seems to have put her in the driver's seat for the final nomination. Pike was another surprising Globes winner, but I don't see her cracking this field. Ditto Adams for a movie that wasn't well reviewed, although she's always a threat and has as ton of goodwill built up for not having won a statue yet. (She'll get there sooner rather than later, though.)
Wishful thinking: Julia Garner – The Assistant, Elisabeth Moss – The Invisible Man/Shirley
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom^
Anthony Hopkins – The Father*
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun – Minari*
Gary Oldman – Mank
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Other contenders:
Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian*
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
This is another field that seems pretty set. Boseman is practically a sure thing for a posthumous win—the only major category that seems to have its winner set at this early stage. Hopkins basically can't be *not* nominated, so he'll be in the field for Still Alice 2.0 (he says, without having seen the film). I don't see Riz Ahmed missing out for a sensational performance as a deaf metal drummer, and Yuen seems to have a solid hold on a nomination for Minari. And then there's recent winner Oldman for playing Mank in Mank. But the buzz has died down considerably for the film as a whole, so if anyone were to miss out among the top contenders, it might be him (or Yeun, honestly). There was a time when Lindo seemed like a surefire nominee, and I'm really hoping against hope that he sneaks in. But if he's not the party crasher, it seems like it will be Rahim.
Wishful thinking: Jean Dujardin – Deerskin, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami..., Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland^
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lee Isaac Chung– Minari*
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
David Fincher – Mank
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Other contenders:
Regina King – One Night in Miami…
Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah
There seems to be six major contenders for five slots. (I don't have Shaka King as a major contender, although he could certainly make the field.) Zhao and Sorkin are 100% in, and I think Zhao will be the eventual (and incredibly deserving) winner. I might be predicting slightly too much love for Minari overall, but I don't think I'm going out on a limb here with predicting Chung to make the field. So it will come down to Fennell, Fincher, and Regina King for the final two spots. As I mentioned above, the Academy membership is very much changing, but is three female nominees (and two women of color) asking too much? I cynically think it might be, so I have Regina King missing out in favor of Fennell or Fincher. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though, especially if Fincher—actually one of my favorite directors, but I found Mank to be rather inert—surprisingly misses the cut.
Wishful thinking: Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Kitty Green – The Assistant
BEST PICTURE
Nomadland^
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Minari*
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami…
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
The Father*
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Other contenders:
Sound of Metal
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Da 5 Bloods
News of the World*
The Best Picture field was expanded from 5 to up to 10 in 2009. The full 10 films were nominated the first two years in 2009 and 2010; since then, either 8 or 9 films have been nominated each year. There have been 6 years when 9 films were nominated, so the safe bet is to expect the same this year—and that seems to fit the list of nominees. I'm pretty positive we'll see the first 8 garner noms, with The Father taking the last one on the back of its likely acting noms. But any of the other four could sneak in: Metal is the requisite indie darling, Borat is incredibly topical, Bloods was once a frontrunner here, and News might have made it on box office returns in a normal year. Not expecting a ton of wildness here, but you never know.
Wishful thinking: Tenet, Palm Springs, Soul, The Assistant
All right... banged this out just under the wire. I'm going to sleep off these beers and see how I did later in the morning—no waking up early on a cold January morning for me. Very much looking forward to the ceremony, as there doesn't seem to be a true turd in the punch bowl (e.g. Green Book, Jojo Rabbit) this year, to me. Thanks for reading, if you read this!
