Wednesday, January 21, 2026

2026 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Mid-to-late January generally means two things to cinema buffs (well, this cinema buff, anyway): the anniversary of Heath Ledger's death and Oscar nomination Thursday. Both happen to fall on the same day this year: January 22nd. As we approach that mournful, yet celebratory, day, many of the major categories feel fairly settled, with maybe only a spot or two truly up for grabs. We also have a clear overall frontrunner, with One Battle After Another feeling inevitable in several of the major categories (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress). But there are always some surprises come nomination morning. Let's see if I can suss them out, or at least match last year's 38/45 correct guesses. Let's start with the screenplay categories, with nominees listed in order of likely nomination, as usual.

* = haven't seen it

^ = early winner prediction

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another^
Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell – Hamnet
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Train Dreams*
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
Will Tracey – Bugonia*
---
Other contenders:
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Don McKellar, and Lee Ja-hye – No Other Choice
Rian Johnson – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
James Vanderbilt – Nuremberg*

The field seems to have coalesced around these five nominees, making for a rather underwhelming category. That's rather typical for this one—I doubt it but I'd wonder if AMPAS would ever consider going the Golden Globes route and including only one screenplay category. (Even my annual Fake Oscars did this years ago.) At this point, OBAA looks to be a shoo-in win. Hamnet has its fans, but I found it rather one-note and not particularly affecting. Haven't seen Train Dreams or Bugonia but hear good things. I'm a bit baffled by Frankenstein—it was a perfectly serviceable adaptation that didn't really add much new to an oft-told tale. If that or Bugonia were to miss out, Park and the No Other Choice team or Johnson for his latest Knives Out entries would be worthy nominees.

Wishful thinking:  Alex Garland – 28 Years Later, JT Mollner – The Long Walk

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Ryan Coogler – Sinners^
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt – Sentimental Value
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident*
Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein – Marty Supreme
Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby*
---
Other contenders:
Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent*
Robert Kaplow – Blue Moon*
Zach Cregger – Weapons

As always, this is looking like a much stronger field. Starting at the top, Sinners is looking like the frontrunner as the most likely place to award a very well-liked film that could get shut out in the rest of the major categories. The two international films seem like safe bets—Trier is a previous nominee and Pahani's film won the Palme d'Or. The same goes for the surging Marty Supreme, which is nearly as panic-inducing as Uncut Gems at times. That leaves one slot open for a host of potential nominees, none of which I have seen besides Weapons, which I'm so pleased to see as a potential Oscar nominee. (I'll be rooting for Cregger for sure.) But I *think* this'll come down to Sorry, Baby versus The Secret Agent. Sometimes you have to play the demographics game with the Academy, so I'll predict the (female-presenting) nonbinary Victor over a third international nominee. But nothing would surprise me.

Wishful thinking: Ari Aster – Eddington, Andrew DeYoung – Friendship

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another^
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Odessa A’Zion – Marty Supreme
---
Other contenders:
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good*
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

I'm quite nervous about this category for a couple reasons, which could possibly be interrelated toward the bottom of the list. But let's start at the top, where the first three names seem quite safe. Like Zoe Saldaña last year and Da'Vine Joy Randolph the year prior, the phenomenal Taylor has this race all but won even before the nominees are announced. Madigan and Lilleaas have been just behind her all awards season and are basically locks for nominations. (Both are excellent in VERY different ways, haha.) Next, I truly hope Mosaku doesn't get overlooked for what I think could very well be the best performance by any female actor in any movie last year. She *seems* to be relatively safe, but she doesn't exactly feel like a true lock either. Behind her, the next three names all seem on about the same ground. Marty Supreme has a ton of momentum right now, which could catapult A'Zion to a nomination. Wicked: For Good, thankfully, has faded significantly but there seems to still be support for Grande. (I'm really hoping that one misses out on any major category noms so I don't have to suffer through it. Did NOT like the first one at all.) Finally, similar to A'Zion, Fanning can ride her film's momentum to a (somewhat surprising) nom. This category is probably the one I'll be paying the closest attention to in the morning.

Wishful thinking: Jodie Comer – 28 Years Later, Diane Kruger – The Shrouds

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value^
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Paul Mescal – Hamnet
---
Other contenders:
Miles Caton – Sinners
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly

Okay, there shouldn't really be any drama in this field—these five names are almost certainly your nominees. Skarsgård and del Toro have been racking up most of the precursor awards, and Penn and Elordi have been right behind them. All are varying degrees of excellent and are very worthy nominees. Mescal is quite good in a film I didn't particularly care for and is coming off of nominations at the Golden Globes and SAGs (now apparently called the "Actor Awards") and seems very safe. Caton received a SAG nomination himself (he's incredible in Sinners), but that was seemingly only because Skarsgård somehow wasn't nominated. I don't think he—or the also outstanding—Lindo have much of a shot of breaking through, but I'd be happy if they did. I found the hype around Sandler's performance to be a bit overblown. While I'm a big fan of his dramatic work, he's good in Kelly but hardly great.

Wishful thinking: Josh O'Connor – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Paul Rudd – Friendship

BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet^
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You*
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia*
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue*
---
Other contenders:
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee*

This one feels a bit like Supporting Actress where the top three seem like locks, the fourth name seems fairly secure, and then there's three names with a relatively equal shot at the final nomination. At the top, are we potentially headed toward another dramatic Best Actress showdown? Last year, we had Demi Moore versus eventual winner Mikey Madison (I still think the Academy got that one wrong!). This year, we have Buckley, the current favorite, versus her Golden Globes co-winner Byrne. I'll weigh in on this race more after I've seen Legs (but for now I'll say Buckley was perfunctorily good, but not much more.) Behind them, Reinsve is a relative lock after missing out for (Fake Oscar–winning!) The Worst Person in the World, while Stone looks pretty safe to earn another nomination for her latest collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos. That leaves one spot for Hudson, Infiniti, or Seyfried. Infiniti seems to be the betting favorite, and she'd be quite worthy. But it's not 100% clear that she's actually a lead actress, and I wonder if she might be too new of a name when compared to Hudson and Seyfried. I have a feeling one of them sneaks in there, but I'd be happy to be wrong (as I'm not particularly interested in seeing either of their films). Let's go with the well-liked Hudson as the spoiler.

Wishful thinking: Julia Garner – Weapons, Julia Roberts – After the Hunt

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme^
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent*
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon*
---
Other contenders:
Jesse Plemons – Bugonia*
Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams*

Stop me if you've heard this one before—the first four names seem secure with three contenders for the final slot. The race at the top of the field will be fascinating—I was somewhat surprised by Chalamet's Globes win over DiCaprio, especially given OBAA's domination elsewhere. I wonder if the Oscars this year could be viewed as a "crowning" for the young Chalamet at the expense of Leo's (to me, superior) performance. Worse things have happened at the Oscars. Moving on, Jordan (maybe better than both in his dual role) and the Globe-winning Moura (looking forward to his film) seem safe, if also-rans to the top two. That leaves one spot for Hawke, Plemons, or Edgerton. I'm seeing a lot of predictions in Plemons's favor in the old "blogosphere," but Bugonia, to me, doesn't feel like a film with a ton of broad support. While on the other hand, you have a respected veteran (Hawke) playing a Broadway legend in a Richard Linklater movie. Yeah, I could see that doing well in voting, so I'm going with him. (Haven't seen Edgerton's movie but I'm a fan and would be tickled to see Hugo Croop himself get an Oscar nom.)

Wishful thinking: David Jonsson – The Long Walk, Joaquin Phoenix – Eddington

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another^
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident*
Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
---
Other contenders:
Joaquim Trier – Sentimental Value
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent*

As usual, this is one of—if not the—toughest categories to predict. I don't feel especially confident in anyone aside from frontrunner PTA and Coogler (who'd probably get my vote). From there, you've got a trio of international nominees (Panahi, Trier, and Mendonça), two previous winners (Zhao and del Toro), and and up-and-comer with a couple of near-classics to his name in Safdie. So let's try to narrow it down from there. I just think Panahi's backstory (from imprisonment to the Palme d'Or) is too good for the Academy to pass up, so I think he makes the field. Then I think Zhao is a good bet, fresh off her Golden Globes win and DGA nomination. That leaves Safdie (also DGA-nominated), Trier, del Toro (also DGA-nominated), and Mendonça. I just don't know if I see broad enough support for del Toro's and Mendonça's films, so the final slot could come down to Safdie and Trier. This is really too close to call, but I'll give the final slot to Safdie with the DGA nomination being the tiebreaker. But, again, outside of PTA and Coogler, no combination of the other six names—or even someone heretofore unmentioned—would surprise me much. Director's branch gonna director's branch.

Wishful thinking: Ari Aster – Eddington, Joseph Kosinski – F1

BEST PICTURE
One Battle After Another^
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
It Was Just an Accident*
Bugonia*
The Secret Agent*
Train Dreams*
---
Other contenders:
F1
Wicked: For Good
*
Weapons
Avatar: Fire and Ash
No Other Choice

I'm not expecting a ton of drama here in our final category. If you look at the projected nominees above (at least 80% accurate or your money back!), they are dominated by the 10 films listed here. OBAA and Sinners both have the potential to tie or even break the all-time nominations record of 14 (All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land). Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value have possible or even likely winners in major categories. They're all stone cold locks. Then you have Frankenstein, which figures to have a ton of support from the technical branches, Accident's Palme d'Or and incredible backstory, and Bugonia's Lanthimos/Stone magic. Those feel safe-ish. Now, could a blockbuster like F1 or the Wicked/Avatar sequels sneak in over a smaller movie like Agent or Dreams? Sure. I'll be rooting for F1, which I loved. The same goes for Weapons and No Other Choice, which would be more than worthy nominees. But this category feels strangely settled. I guess we'll find out in the morning if I was off-base!

Wishful thinking: Eddington, Warfare

Hey, I got this done pretty early! It's Wednesday afternoon here in Arizona. I'm usually cranking this out late in the night, or even after midnight. Ah, the benefits of a slow workweek. In the morning, I'll be rooting for F1, Weapons, and No Other Choice to pick up unexpected nominations, Wunmi Mosaku to break through in Supporting Actress, and the Wicked sequel to miss out in the major categories. Anything for Eddington, one of my favorites and one I think will be remembered as one of the most important movies of the year, would be awesome. Other than that, just looking forward to seeing what I have to catch up with before 3/15. I gripe sometimes, but this is truly one of my favorite times of the year. Adios until my predictions and Fake Oscars in mid-March!

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Halfway Through the 2020s: My Favorite 2025 Music

By my math, 2025 puts us halfway through the 2020s. It's been, almost uniformly, the worst decade of my existence: COVID, Trump, wars and war crimes in Europe and the Middle East, soaring cost of living, the rise of AI, etc., etc. And things don't seem like they'll be getting better anytime soon. That said, at least one good thing happened this decade (I got married this year!) and, hey, it's been a pretty decent decade for music. If I had to put together a quick top 10 of my favorite albums of the decade so far (I didn't have to, but it helped me procrastinate writing this for another 30 minutes), it might look like this, roughly in order:

Waxahatchee – Saint Cloud (2020)
Cory Branan – When I Go I Ghost (2022)
Kendrick Lamar – GNX (2024)
Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit – Weathervanes (2023)
James McMurtry – The Horses and the Hounds (2021)
Olivia Rodrigo – GUTS (2023)
Sincere Engineer – Bless My Psyche (2021)
The Beths – Jump Rope Gazers (2020)
Bethany Cosentino – Natural Disaster (2023)
Hot Mulligan – Why Would I Watch (2023)

The first couple things I notice when looking at this list is that it's going to be real tough for anything to crack that top two, and 2023 was a banger of a year, with four albums in the list. Then the next thing I notice is that no 2025 album managed to crack the list. There are a couple of easy possible explanations for that: 1) I haven't yet had enough time to sit with most of these albums (less than a year, again by my math), and/or 2) this year just wasn't a super-strong one, music-wise.

That happens sometimes—I've called out 2019 and 2021 for just that in this space before. I stand by it with 2019—nothing from that year made my list of top 25 albums from the 2010s list, and I don't think anything would make it if I redid that list five years later. I might've judged 2021 too early, though, as it has a couple albums on the above list. Sincere Engineer has been one of my favorite new bands of this decade, and I hadn't yet discovered McMurtry (and that incredible album) before I wrote that blog post.

So we'll see how 2025 looks when I make my 2020s list in another five years. (Assuming we haven't been embroiled in another world war or that bullshit AI technology hasn't used up all our water or drained our electrical grids.) As a bit of a caveat to this blog post, there's a lot of very good music that came out this year, but I'm not sure there's been much that's truly *great*.

As I ponder the songs and albums that came out this year, I honestly don't know if any of them will gain entry into my permanent rotation, my personal canon, the way that, for example, the Waxahatchee and Cory Branan albums did almost immediately upon first hearing them. Maybe there's something I initially underrated like GNX, or something I haven't yet discovered like the McMurtry album. It'll be very interesting to look back on this year on the eve of the 2030s. For now, let's see where things stand here, music-wise, at the end of 2025, again in the faux-Grammys format.

* = saw live this year

Best New Artist
Blondshell – If You Asked for a Picture
Jade Bird – Who Wants to Talk About Love?
Molly Tuttle – So Long Little Miss Sunshine
Momma – Welcome to My Blue Sky
Winona Fighter* – My Apologies To The Chef
---
Honorable mentions: Anxious – Bambi, Pool Kids – Easier Said Than Done, Snocaps – Snocaps, The Speaker Wars – The Speaker Wars, Wolf Alice – The Clearing

This would be more aptly titled "Best New(ish) to Me Artist," since most of these acts have been around for at least a few years. Although I had a passing familiarity with most of the nominees (and HMs), none of their previous releases made enough of an impression to land a nom or HM in any previous blog post (my arbitrary criterion for this category). I mentioned possibly doing a category like this last year, when I struggled to connect with many truly new-to-me artists. That wasn't the case in 2025, obviously. So let's check out this group of (mostly female) artists who broke through for me this year, roughly in order.

  • Jade Bird was the last artist to make the cut here, narrowly beating out Anxious (an emo act with great riffs and melodies reminiscent of Oso Oso), Pool Kids (honestly a pretty similar sound to Blondshell), Snocaps (the Crutchfield sisters with an anonymous MJ Lenderman on guitar), The Speaker Wars (a heartland rock Cact with Stan Lynch of the Heartbreakers—a recommendation from my parents), and Wolf Alice (Big Thief meets CHVRCHES is the closest thing I can come up with on the fly). Bird does some strummy indie rock that verges into alt-country—I was shocked to find out she's English and not from, like, Colorado or Indiana. She gets the nod because I probably listened to her most, as she's an act my wife also likes. The anthemic "Save Your Tears" is the highlight.
  • Of all the nominees, Blondshell was the only one I wasn't really familiar with before this year. I don't recall ever listening to her 2023 self-titled debut, but I did listen to a single called "Docket" last year that featured Bully (who appeared in my 2023 blog post) but I honestly think I thought it was an actual Bully song. Anyway, Blondshell is another moody female-fronted indie rock act with a cynical streak and some powerful choruses. "T&A" is the standout, a sad and soaring power ballad about a FWB situation going wrong, but "What's Fair," "Event of a Fire," and "Change" are among the other bangers on the album.
  • I like the Blondshell and Jade Bird records, but the next three are on another level—AOTY contenders for sure. Continuing through the list alphabetically, that brings us to Molly Tuttle. She had been on my radar since 2019, when "Light Came In (Power Went Out)" actually made my best of the year playlist that year. I don't recall listening to the album as a whole much, and it looks like there are at least three albums since I didn't listen to much or at all. But from the bluegrass-infused opener "Everything Burns" to the Sheryl Crow–esque "The Highway Knows" to slick country-pop production of "That's Gonna Leave a Mark" to the honky-tonkin' "Old Me (New Wig)," Tuttle's oustanding latest ensured she won't be falling back off my radar anytime soon.
  • We're really running the gamut of female vocal artists here, from Tuttle's country-pop to Bird's folk/Americana to Blondshell's cool-girl indie to, now Momma's '90s alt-rock throwback jams. They first came on my radar with "Speeding '72" from their 2022 debut, but I didn't hear it until at least a year or two later. Then "Ohio All the Time" knocked my socks off last year and made Blue Sky one of my more anticipated 2025 releases. It didn't disappoint. If you're still reading music criticism in 2025, you've heard the comparisons to '90s Hole-adjacent alternative chick-rock bands like Veruca Salt and The Breeders, which are certainly apt, but this New York-by-way-of-Brooklyn act also reminds me a bit of a couple of my favorite 2020s Chicago acts, Sincere Engineer and Ratboys. The standouts here are "I Want You (Fever)," which wouldn't miss a beat on MTV2 at 2:00 a.m. in 1997, the sunny "Stay All Summer," and swooning album closer "My Old Street."
  • Okay, I'm cheating a little bit with runaway category winner Winona Fighter, as I included their "Swear to God That I'm (FINE)" as an HM for Song of the Year last year. I should've just waited until this year, but the song was just too damn good to not mention at the time. These guys are a totally badass pop-punk act out of Nashville fronted by the powerhouse that is Coco Kinnon. I was instantly hooked the first time I heard them. Think New Found Glory's riffs, Brodie Dalle's swagger, and a decidedly Millennial perspective. They're an absolute blast, from the positively electric opener "JUMPERCABLES" to the ferocious "ATTENTION" to the bouncy "FINE." This is definitely the album I had the most fun with in 2025—and they rule live, too. Can't wait to watch this band grow and (hopefully) find the larger audience they deserve.

Best Old Artist
Beach Bunny – Tunnel Vision
Craig Finn* – Always Been
James McMurtry – The Black Dog and the Wandering Boy
The Beaches* – No Hard Feelings
The Beths* – Straight Line Was a Lie
---
Honorable mentions: Ben Nichols* – In the Heart of the Mountain, Hot Mulligan – The Sound a Body Makes When It's Still, Hayley Williams – Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party, Sunflower Bean – Mortal Primetime, Wet Leg* – Moisturizer

If I'm going to do Best New Artist, might as well do Best Old Artist! All the nominees and HMs here are artists are ones I'm quite familiar with, from the frontmen of two of my all-time favorite bands to a couple other male acts I've only semi-recently become familiar with to, you guessed it, female vocal artists of all stripes. I don't know if I'll use these categories again, but it seemed like a better breakdown than genres (almost everything in this entry is guitar-based) or male/female (since female acts would just dominate; see below). For now, let's break down these "old hat" acts.

  • This was an easier field to narrow down that Best New Artist. Of the HMs, the only one I really considered for a nomination was Wet Leg, who's raucous yet polished second album got a lot of airplay this year (although it suffered a bit from some skippable tracks). Of the others, Nichols's latest solo effort sounds not dissimilar to a late Lucero released; it needs further exploring but I dig it a lot. The Hot Mulligan and Williams albums are great but a bit overlong, and the Sunflower Bean record has a nice Metric sound going on but not enough true bangers. So Beach Bunny pretty easily made the field as the final nominee for their third album (a second-straight nomination after 2022's Emotional Creature). It's reminiscent of a more rockin' Soccer Mommy—confessional lyrics, ear-wormy choruses, a strong writerly touch. The "Tunnel Vision/"Clueless" back-to-back at 4/5 is a true high point, and both are SOTY contenders for sure.
  • Next up are The Beaches, who also make it two nominations in a row for their follow up to 2023's Blame My Ex. No Hard Feelings is another collection of bops and ballads from these queer, badass Canadian lasses. That said, I wouldn't have been surprised if Blame My Ex was a one-off, especially if they tried to recapture the viral sensation of "Blame Brett." Not that they don't still know how to have fun—"Last Girls at the Party" might be THE banger of the year—but songs like "Did I Say Too Much" and "Takes One to Know One" belies a much more fully developed, mature sound that hints at even more exciting things to come. Oh, and they absolutely ROCK live!
  • Our next nominee, The Beths, make it three strong showings in a row after 2020's #2 overall album, Jump Rope Gazers, and a category win for 2022's Expert in a Dying Field. These New Zealander indie rockers seem to have taken up permanent residence in my aesthetic wheelhouse. (I hope the accommodations are nice!) What's the secret to their success? I think it's the harmonies. One think I know about my musical taste is I'm an absolute sucker for vocal harmonies. I've been to countless concerts where a band doesn't do the album harmonies live and I always miss them. Not so with the Beths—the harmonies from all four band members are such a central part of their sound, and they don't skimp on them live unlike a lot of bands. Their latest is another in the exact same vein as their first two, with maybe some of their most fully realized, heartfelt indie rock ballads yet, with "Mother, Pray for Me" and "Til My Heart Stops" even better live back to back than they are on the album.
  • Just like the category below, it was incredibly tough choosing between the top two. If we were ranking only by the best songs on each album, the latest from The Hold Steady frontman Craig Finn might very well have been #1 here—and the year itself. The high points of Always Been, Finn's first-ever solo nomination here, are just that good. For my money, the urgent, tender, and heartbreaking "Luke & Leanna" is one of the best songs Finn has ever written—and he's written some of my favorite songs of all time. "She says it's just nothing / It's something at work" is absolutely devastating in context. On a much more downbeat, yet somewhat hopeful, note is "Fletcher's," a 5+ minute spoken word story-song about a young urban everyman struggling with his station in life. (Okay, that describes plenty of Hold Steady songs.) But Finn imbues it with hyper-specific details ("Found my shoes in the foyer in a jumble of sneakers and one silver high heel") and an almost unbearable sadness that gives way to a sublime ray of hope at the end ("It was pretty good right here"). I'll have more to say about the rest of the novel-like album below (spoilers).
  • It was a tough decision in an incredibly tight race in this category, but I'm going with the relatively unheralded James McMurtry as the winner here. Is this partially trying to make up for not discovering his previous album (2021's excellent The Horses and the Hounds) in time for my blog post that year? Possibly. But other than perhaps the Craig Finn album, The Black Dog and the Wandering Boy is a showcase for the best songwriting that I've heard this year. If the Finn record is a plaintive novel, this is an rollicking short story collection, with tales about drug deals gone bad ("Laredo (Small Dark Something"), an aging cop left behind by modern times ("South Texas Lawman," a true highlight), and autobiographical tour life musings ("Sailing Away"). McMurtry name checks Jason Isbell on that last one, and like Isbell's recent albums with The 400 Unit, Black Dog is a very political record, ruminating on post-9/11 and our current Trump-poisoned America ("Annie," "Sons of the Second Sons"). This is unadorned musicianship and plainspoken poetry at its finest.

Song of the Year
"Last Girls at the Party" – The Beaches*
"Luke & Leanna" – Craig Finn*
"South Texas Lawman" – James McMurtry
"Swear To God That I'm (FINE)" – Winona Fighter*
"T&A" – Blondshell
---
Honorable mentions: "Clueless" – Beach Bunny, "I Want You (Fever)" – Momma, "mangetout" – Wet Leg*, "The Highway Knows" – Molly Tuttle, "Til My Heart Stops" – The Beths*

There are two kinds of songs that make up the nominees and HMs here: emotive story-songs that get you in the feels and straight-up bops/bangers. Okay, there's definitely some crossover, but I think you can divide this list of 10 songs fairly down the middle. Of the HMs, they're mostly in the bop/banger category: "I Want You" and "mangetout" are earworms through and through, and while "Clueless" and "Highway" clearly have emotion behind them, they're more riff/chorus first than lyrics-first. Is this arbitrary? 100%. But let's see on which side of the divide the actual nominees land.

  • I didn't really have too much trouble narrowing this field down. Blondshell's "T&A" was comfortably the last name in the field, but it's also in a kind of mini-tier all its own a bit below the other nominees. It definitely falls into the story-song category. Lyrically, it's kind of Jenny Lewis–esque in its sexual frankness—"We were really friends / Didn't think about anything else / I liked having someone to call / But I started taking my shirt off / And facing the wall." Musically, it's fairly downtempo with a simple riff that lets songwriter/vocalist Sabrina Mae Teitelbaum's voice take center stage. The chorus is one of my favorite of the year, sorrowful and resigned: "Letting him in, why don't the good ones love me? / Watching him fall, watching him go right in front of me." It feels like you're listening to something you shouldn't be hearing in the best way possible.
  • The other four nominees were all very real contenders here, and I probably had them all in the top spot at some point during the writing process. (I truly didn't know which song would win until I sat down and thought/wrote about them all.) Our next nominee, "Swear To God That I'm (FINE)," Winona Fighter's buoyant, baleful pop-punk mosher, was slotted into the #1 spot for most of the year (especially since it came out late last year). It's an addictive admixture of early Paramore and later NFG with a chugging bassline, crunchy riffs, shout-along chorus, and the requisite breakdown. It's the second-biggest banger of the year...
  • ...after the absolutely terrific "Last Girls at the Party" by The Beaches. Serving as the album capper—as well as the opening *and* closing number of their live show—it's a jubilant ode to looking hot, taking shots, being queer, and staying up late. (Hey, I can relate to one of those!) With guitars and bass reminiscent of The Cure, gang vocals, and the catchiest chorus of the year, what's not to love? And did I mention that it SLAYS live? Like I mentioned, the band opened with it and then did a reprise version to close the show out at one of my favorite concerts of the year. This one absolutely almost won this category but will have to settle for merely Banger of the Year. I don't think they'd mind.
  • The final two nominees are definitely in the story-song category and are two of the finest pieces of songwriting this year. It was an agonizing choice, but barely coming in second is James McMurtry's "South Texas Lawman," a contemplative, mournful vignette about a lawman from, well, South Texas, who "cheats on both his wives" and "reckons after Vietnam, we musta all gone soft." It might sounds like McMurtry flirts with CNN-style, Joe the Plumber both-sides-ism, but aside from being a well-sketched character study, "South Texas Lawman" is—like many songs on the recent McMurtry albums I've listened to—a rumination on aging. "I can't stand getting old / it don't fit me," sighs the lawman in the chorus. While the lawman winds up "Naked in the moonlight / sidearm in his hand," McMurtry wields his weariness like Hemingway wielded his typewriter before he... well, anyway. Moving on!
  • The winner here—and the song I truly think I'll remember most from 2025—is Craig Finn's happy-sad masterpiece "Luke & Leanna." The titular Midwest couple, who "moved to the city / to have an adventure," face a crisis of faith after "ten years together" when Leanna, a nurse, has an affair with a doctor at work. Finn tells their tale matter-of-factly over "Walk of Life"–esque keys courtesy of producer Adam Granduciel of The War on Drugs, slowly building their lives through seemingly mundane details ("On weeknights, they stay in / Takeout and watch TV"), mostly from Leanna's perspective, before she comes home crying. Luke asks her what happened, and "She said it's just nothing / It's something at work" hits you like an emotional elbow drop from the top rope. Just a beautiful song and songwriting. And note that this category could just have easily been won by the above-mentioned "Fletcher's." Two of the best songs of the year on the same album.
As usual, here are links to Spotify playlists for my favorite songs of the year:

Album of the Year
Craig Finn* – Always Been
James McMurtry – The Black Dog and the Wandering Boy
Molly Tuttle – So Long Little Miss Sunshine
The Beths* – Straight Line Was a Lie
Winona Fighter* – My Apologies To The Chef
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Honorable mentions: Beach Bunny – Tunnel Vision, Blondshell – If You Asked for a Picture, Momma – Welcome to My Blue Sky, The Beaches* – No Hard Feelings, Wet Leg* – Moisturizer

I think it's pretty clear that society has shifted from valuing individual songs over whole albums. Yet music writers and the Grammys themselves persist in holding Album of the Year in higher esteem than Song of the Year. I think that's still the case for me—I still largely mark years by albums, not songs—but I'm not sure for how much longer. I'll be much more likely in future years to listen to my (forthcoming) playlist of favorite 2025 songs than I'll be to listen to most/many of the albums I'll discuss below. But since Song of the Year is still the top category, let's see which one—if any—will enter my personal cannon and perhaps make that best of the decade list in five years.

  • The last name in this field was Molly Tuttle, who had to fend off Momma and The Beaches (in that order, I think). I don't think any of these albums (or the rest of the HMs) will be ones I'll revisit a ton. I'm sure I'll come back to The Beaches if only for "Last Girls at the Party," while Momma could either be a one-hit wonder or a band that could look too low here in a few years depending on what they do next. I like the Tuttle album the best out of all of these, and it reminds me a bit of Maggie Rogers's excellent album from last year... which I didn't go back to a ton in 2025, if I'm being honest. Tuttle's record seems like it'll be in the same boat. Very much enjoyed it this year but not an all-timer.
  • I know I'll be revisiting the rest of the albums in this category, starting with The Beths, who as mentioned above are one of my favorite discoveries of the 2020s. This album really clicked for me when I saw them live last month—just watching the interplay between the band members and how the harmonies come together was revelatory and one of my favorite concert experiences of the year. Again, I know they're a band I'll revisit over the years, but I'm not sure this album really stands out from the rest of their discography in such a way as to make it especially more memorable than the others. I kind of put The Beths in a similar category as Charly Bliss, who very nearly won AOTY last year—and who I only occasionally revisited in 2025. Very much like, but canonical? I'm not so sure.
  • There's no doubt that Craig Finn has real estate staked out in my personal canon, but it's with The Hold Steady and not necessarily as a solo artist. While I've generally enjoyed his previous solo efforts—especially the first one, Clear Hearts Full Eyes—as mentioned above, this is his first solo record to make a real appearance in this space. And it's really an exceptional album, albeit not one that I've been keen to listen to all the way through often, which is kind of a major criterion for this category. It's a lot of 3:30+ mid-tempo numbers, which is fine but not necessarily conducive to how I listen to music anymore. That said, I nearly talked my self into going with it in this category due to Finn's incredible lyrics and Granduciel's note-perfect production. I could see this record being one I look back on and ranked too low here. But for now it's a solid #3.
  • So this category definitely came down to Finn and the final two nominees. I very much had a tough time picking between probably the most artistically accomplished album (Finn), the most listenable (Winona Fighter), and the best combination of the two (McMurtry). Eventually, I settled on James McMurtry here at #2. Like I mentioned earlier, I don't think the high points are quite as high as the Finn record, but it also feels like a more cohesive album that's just flows from track to track. I know I listened to it all the way through more than Finn's record... although not quite as much as #1 below. I guess what I'm saying is that I slightly prefer McMurtry's short story stylings to Finn's more novelistic approach. But both albums are excellent entries into the dad rock genre—and I actually got my dad The Horses and the Hounds for Christmas this year. Early reviews are positive. I don't think he's quite ready for Finn, but maybe next year.
  • So that means that the prestigious AOTY goes to none other than Winona Fighter. This year feels almost exactly like 2021 when Sincere Engineer—a young, female-fronted, punk-adjacent band—took the top prize over a strong late-career effort from a veteran dad rock–adjacent band in Lucero. Like that year, the tiebreaker eventually was simply "Which album did I listen to most?" This year, the (documentable) answer to that question was unquestionably the brash badasses from Nashville. Now, they do have the advantage of their album coming out much earlier in the year than Finn or McMurtry, but Winona Fighter were on constant rotation and their album was the most purely joyful musical experience I had this year. I very much look forward to seeing where they go from here—and maybe, like Sincere Engineer, their next album will be another AOTY contender. Regardless, I know this is an album I'll be enjoying for years to come.

Bonus Category: Concert of the Year
I've got enough time before I need to get ready for New Year's festivities that I can drop a list of my favorite concerts of the year (with minimal commentary). Here we go!

The Format @ Veterans Memorial Coliseum (September)
The Beths @ The Van Buren (November) 
Craig Finn/Patterson Hood @ The Musical Instrument Museum (November) 
The Offspring/Jimmy Eat World/New Found Glory @ Talking Stick Resort Amphitheatre (August)
The Beaches @ The Van Buren (October)
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Rilo Kiley @ The Van Buren (May), The Academy Is... @ The Observatory (December), Dreamy Draw Festival @ Scottsdale Civic Center (November), Menzingers/Lucero @ The Nile (May), Winona Fighter @ Valley Bar (June)

Fall was a great season for concerts! The best of the bunch was The Format at the AZ State Fair. I never got to see them back in the day, as I think I was living in L.A. during most of their initial run. Then they canceled not once but twice during COVID. But I managed to scoop up a couple tickets for their reunion show this year and it was just as good as I could have hoped—better even! So, so good. Immensely excited for their new album in 2026... as well as whatever else the year holds, music-wise. Whether it's the new Format album or something else entirely, I can't wait to see what else might enter my personal musical canon next year.

As always, thanks for reading! Happy New Year. =)

Sunday, March 2, 2025

An Unpredictable Night: My 2024 Oscars Predictions

All right, y'all, let's get down to it. I've been writing about the films of 2024 basically the entire weekend, so it's time to bang out my usual Oscar predix. I'm not expecting to do very well, as this is probably the toughest year to predict in recent memory. I think there's really only a couple true locks in all the major categories and while there are certainly favorites in the rest, most of them are true toss-ups. So this should be wild. Let's get it on.

Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

This *should* be a lock—my predicted winner Zoe Saldaña has won just about every precursor imaginable. However, her co-star Karla Sofía Gascón's recently unearthed racist tweets have doomed Emilia Pérez in pretty much every other category, and it wouldn't shock me to see Saldaña ultimately lose as well. But she has such a huge lead that she's likely safe. If an upset were to occur, Grande would likely benefit, with Rossellini as a darkhorse (even though she's in the movie for like five minutes and only has one memorable scene). I don't think anyone but Saldaña will win, but you never know with this particular ceremony. (P.S. This is a very weak year in this category.)

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Barbaro, 2) Jones, 3) Saldaña, 4) Grande, 5) Rossellini

Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

The one guarantee tonight is that Kieran Culkin will win this category—he's won even more precursors than Saldaña (probably; I haven't actually done the research on that). He's a very deserving winner even though he's won countless awards for playing basically the same character in Succession. (No knock, though—Roman Roy is an incredible TV character.) This is a very strong field and I wouldn't be mad if any of the other nominees won. It's great to see Strong (Culkin's Succession co-star) nominated for his maniacally dedicated work, and Norton and Pearce are longtime favorites getting recognized for really great work. Borisov was new to me but Anora doesn't work without him.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Pearce, 2) Culkin, 3) Norton, 4) Strong, 5) Borisov

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Okay, well, now I'm not enjoying this now that I have to make an actually difficult decision. This will come down to Madison and Moore, and I absolutely adore both performances. Both have won their share of precursors, but Demi Moore has won more of the ones that matter, and she has the stronger narrative with this being her first Oscar nomination in a 40+ year film career (versus Madison's still-nascent career). I'll be firmly rooting for Moore, although I'd be happy for Madison were she to win. Or darkhorse Torres, who was excellent as well. There are no scenarios where Erivo or Gascón win.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Moore, 2) Madison, 3) Torres, 4) Erivo, 5) Gascón

Best Actor
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

There's a growing contingent of prognosticators predicting Chalamet to win this, and I must confess I don't really get it. Yes, he is able to uncannily replicate Dylan's voice and guitar during the (many) musical numbers, but when he has to actually act as Dylan, the man, it's merely passable cosplay. And I recognize that there is some sort of AI controversy surrounding The Brutalist's Hungarian dialogue, but... come the fuck on. I'm about as anti-AI as you can get but I just can't be bothered by that shit. Adrien Brody is absolutely phenomenal in The Brutalist and is completely deserving of a second Oscar. But this is a heart-over-head pick and I'm more than prepared to be wrong here.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Brody, 2) Fiennes, 3) Domingo, 4) Stan, 5) Chalamet

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
James Mangold and Jay Cocks – A Complete Unknown
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys
Peter Straughan – Conclave

This is the only other real lock of the major categories after Culkin—Peter Straughan should win this in a possible precursor for a Conclave Best Picture upset. Although none are particularly likely, there are probably more scenarios for Straughan losing than Culkin. If tonight is, for some reason, an A Complete Unknown night, Mangold and Cocks (elite law firm/porn star duo name) would benefit. And Nickel Boys likely has more passionate advocates than Conclave and could potentially emerge as the Benitez of the night's proceedings. (Inside Conclave joke, zing!) The Perez and Sing Sing scripts have no shot.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Straughan, 2) Bentley and Kwedar, 3) Ross and Barnes, 4) Mangold and Cocks, 5) Audiard

Best Original Screenplay
Sean Baker – Anora
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David – September 5
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Although I wouldn't say it's a true lock, I fully expect Sean Baker to win his first Oscar—but maybe not his last tonight—for his Anora script. Although it won the Palme d'Or, Anora nevertheless entered Oscar season as somewhat as an afterthought before really coming on in the last month or so. And Baker has by all accounts impressed voters and audiences at each subsequent award he and his film have won. He's a personal favorite and I'll be heartily rooting for him tonight. If there's a spoiler it would likely be Eisenberg (another personal favorite). I'd absolutely love a Fargeat win but it seems like a (very) longshot along with Corbet and Fastvold. The September 5 team has no shot—although the film was very well written. Do note that a Baker loss here could be a disastrous signal for Anora's Best Picture chances.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Baker, 2) Fargeat, 3) Eisenberg, 4) Binder, Fehlbaum, and David, 5) Corbet and Fastvold

Best Director
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

There are only two real contenders here: Baker and Corbet. Corbet has the Globe and the BAFTA while Baker has the all-important DGA (plus, implicitly, the PGA and WGA). Corbet had the early momentum but recent developments have made this Sean Baker's award to lose. I don't think he will. I've been a huge fan since The Florida Project (one of my favorite films of the past decade) and am glad to see him finally getting recognition from major awards bodies. That said, The Brutalist is incredible and I'll be quite happy for Corbet were he to pull off the "upset." (And he'd actually get my vote!) Don't see this category going down any other way, but a Fargeat win would be absolutely epic (and deserving). Again, as mentioned above, a Baker loss here bodes very poorly for Anora in Best Picture.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Corbet, 2) Fargeat, 3) Baker, 4) Mangold, 5) Audiard

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Not all that long ago, I was sure that tonight would be The Brutalist's night. It won a trio of major categories at the Golden Globes (Actor, Director, and Motion Picture – Drama) and just had that air of prestige that often does well with the Academy. (Is that coding for "post-Holocaust epic"? Perhaps.) But other than those Globes wins, The Brutalist has mostly fallen by the wayside as two new contenders emerged: Anora and Conclave.

Clear frontrunner Anora has really come on strong of late, winning the big DGA, PGA, and WGA prizes in recent weeks. However, the one guild award it didn't win was the SAG, which Conclave picked up in a mild upset, complicating the Best Picture race. But I think the SAG win, impressive as it was, might've been too little, too late for a film most seem to like rather than love. I think more voters loved Anora, which helps a lot in the Academy's preferential ballot system. So I think Anora takes the big prize of the night—which would be no surprise at all if Baker were to win both Original Screenplay and Director.

At this point, I usually like to wax a bit poetic about the "big picture" and "what's at stake," ask "What would an Anora (or Conclave) win mean?" I'll give it my best shot, but this year seems similar to, say, 2021 or 2022 in that there's not a ton at stake. As great as Anora is (ditto The Brutalist) and as very good as Conclave is, I wouldn't see a win by either as anything truly notable or as presaging some new direction or trend in US cinema. Films that won the Palme d'Or like Anora did rarely win the Oscar—but Parasite did just that five years ago. It's also an independent film, which rarely win Best Picture—but Nomadland and CODA also did in the two years linked above. And Conclave? Conclave would be like every other good but not great prestige drama to win this category (for any number of recent examples, look at the Best Picture winners of the 2010s).

So, yeah, I like both movies and wouldn't get too bent out of shape were either to win (although I do definitely prefer Anora). At least there's a good amount of drama/unpredictability in the major categories, which isn't always the case. (See: last year.) And nothing that would really piss me off, thankfully. (Emilia Pérez sweep incoming!) Tonight should be an enjoyable, if ultimately not too consequential, ceremony. I'm just fine with that.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) The Substance, 2) Anora, 3) The Brutalist, 4) Dune: Part Two, 5) I'm Still Here, 6) Conclave, 7) Nickel Boys, 8) A Complete Unknown, 9) Wicked, 10) Emilia Pérez

As usual, we'll go LIGHTNING ROUND for the remaining categories.

Best International Feature Film
I'm Still Here (Brazil) – directed by Walter Salles
This has long been Emilia Pérez's award to lose, but I think the Gascón controversy—along with the fact that this is a very bad movie!—allows a surging, and excellent, I'm Not Here to swoop in.
My Non-Existent Vote: I'm Still Here

Best Animated Feature Film
The Wild Robot  – directed by Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
Flow has a real shot here (it's also nominated for Best International Feature) and it would not surprise me at all if it wins here. But I'm going with the favorite.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Feature
No Other Land – directed by Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, and Yuval Abraham
This one seems to be between No Other Land and Porcelain War, which are both about very timely topics (Israel/Palestine, Ukrainian War). Going with the favorite here as well.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Cinematography
Lol Crawley – The Brutalist
Crawley is a big favorite and deservingly so for creating some of the most memorable images of the year (we've all seen the upside-down Statue of Liberty). Nosferatu and Dune are deserving longshots.
My Non-Existent Vote: Crawley

Best Editing
Nick Emerson – Conclave
For some reason the ACE Eddie awards aren't for another couple weeks, which makes this category tougher to predict. Emerson seems to be the favorite for the well-put-together Conclave.
My Non-Existent Vote: Dávid Jancsó – The Brutalist

Best Original Score
Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Blumberg is a sizeable favorite for his excellent Brutalist score, but I wonder if there's a "more is better" thing going on here, as Bertelmann's work is superior.
My Non-Existent Vote: Volker Bertelmann – Conclave

Best Original Song
"El Mal" – Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard (from Emilia Pérez)
The Emilia Pérez songs are mostly awful but this one is at least tolerable. But there is a very realistic possibility that Pérez misses out here due to Gascón and Diane fucking Warren wins her first Oscar.
My Non-Existent Vote: "Like a Bird" – Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada (from Sing Sing)

Best Sound
Tod Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, David Giammarco – A Complete Unknown
Dune seems to be the favorite, but the first one won this category and Unknown and Wicked are very well regarded. Dune won the sound editors guild award, while Unknown one the sound mixing award.
My Non-Existent Vote: Maitland, Sylvester, Caplan, Massey, and Giammarco

Best Visual Effects
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer – Dune: Part Two
Dune is a huge favorite here, and deservingly so—it's in another class entirely than the other nominees (although Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' effects were quite good). Wicked looked like total shit.
My Non-Existent Vote: Lambert, James, Salcombe, and Nefzer

Best Production Design
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales – Wicked
I did not at all like Wicked but will concede that the set designs were pretty good. (Unlike the visual effects!) The other nominees were also strong, especially Nosferatu.
My Non-Existent Vote: Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerová – Nosferatu

Best Costume Design
Paul Tazewell – Wicked
This might be the lock of the night. Wicked certainly has the "most" costumes, which is probably doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Not a super strong field overall (no Anora, Brutalist, Furiosa?).
My Non-Existent Vote: Linda Muir – Nosferatu

Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli – The Substance
Okay, the one thing that might piss me off is if The Substance lost here—the work of this team is just so integral to the movie. The rest of the nominees are all solid, but this has to be The Substance.
My Non-Existent Vote: Persin, Guillon, and Scarselli

Best Live Action Short
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek
This was a really strong crop of live action shorts this year, but I was a bit surprised to see Silent as the favorite per prognosticators and oddsmakers. It was the least impactful to me. A Lien also has a shot.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Last Ranger – Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw

Best Animated Short
Wander to Wonder – Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
Conversely, the animated shorts were quite disappointing this year. They were mostly trite, boring, or weird. Wander (weird) is at least different enough to distinguish itself from the rest.
My Non-Existent Vote: Wander to Wonder

Best Documentary Short
I Am Ready, Warden – Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
*Checks internet.* Okay then, going with this one. As always, you'd have to pay me a significant sum of money to sit through these.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

This is a strange year in the Oscar predicting game. I actually feel more confident in most of the down-ballot categories than the major ones. Last year, I got 17/23 with just one major category miss. I don't feel at all confident that I can beat or even tie that number this year. As far as what I'll be rooting for, Demi Moore and Sean Baker are at the top of my list, as well as an I'm Still Here upset over Emilia Pérez in International Feature. Oh, and an out-of-nowhere win for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for the Challengers score. (How was that not nominated??) Happy Oscar night, y'all!

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Bee-Keeping It Real in a Down Year: My 2024 Fake Oscars

I'll begin my usual preamble with some bad news: 2024 was a weaker year in cinema than 2023 in just about every respect. For starters, after three straight years of growth following the pandemic-stricken 2020, the domestic box office was down compared to the previous year.

And when you look at the highest-grossing movies, it makes sense. In the top 10, you've got a whopping 9(!) sequels, many of which no one asked for or needed. That includes #1 Inside Out 2, which I didn't even bother seeing even though I'd heard mostly good things—the first one did exactly what it needed and a sequel just seemed entirely unnecessary. (This exact same thing goes for Moana 2.) Then you've got a couple fourth entries in kids' franchises, two legacyquels that were actually fairly decent, a third and ever-more-irritating Deadpool movie, a fun but frivolous Godzilla franchise entry, and the second Dune flick. The lone non-sequel was Wicked, which is only based on one of the most, ahem, popular Broadway musicals of all time. This crop of blockbusters pales in comparison to 2023's, which was led by the Barbenheimer juggernaut.

I'd also say 2024's slate of Oscar nominees is weaker than 2023's. For one, there isn't even a no-doubt frontrunner as I write this about two weeks before the ceremony. (Update: This is still true the night before the ceremony.) It seems like Anora is the Best Picture favorite right now, but that's only a recent development in what has been a very uncertain race thus far. It'd make a fine winner (I'm a big fan!) but would likely be forgotten in a couple years like, well, like just about every Best Picture winner besides Oppenheimer, Parasite, and Moonlight in the past 15 or so years. Films like The Brutalist and The Substance might've held their own in last year's field, but I think that's about it. And this year's field also has once-frontrunner Emilia Pérez, which is one of the worst Best Picture nominees of the century.

So, yeah, 2024 was somewhat of a down year in cinema. But there's hope! This palpable downturn in quality films is likely just fallout from the 2023 WGA strike, which hampered and/or delayed countless promising projects. With that well in the rearview now, hopefully 2025 will be a big bounce-back year, both for the box office and Oscars slate. Fingers crossed.

But down year or not, there's still plenty worth celebrating from 2024 in the world of cinema. As usual, I'm here to share my favorite movies and performances with you. Below, you'll find a few of the bigger hits of the year—but even more outstanding popcorn flicks that didn't quite bring in the beaucoup bucks for whatever reason. You'll also see a few Oscar nominees—but also some prestige pictures that didn't resonate as much with awards bodies. As always, my favorites feature both popcorn and prestige, but are generally box-office and awards-show agnostic. I like what I like; sometimes it lines up with the masses and the critics, sometimes it doesn't.

But enough preamble (man, they keep getting longer over the years)—let's get to the awards. We'll start like the real Oscars usually do, with the supporting categories. All nominees are listed in alphabetical order until we get to Best Picture.

Gold = winner
^ = Oscar nominee

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Instigators
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain^
Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Edward Norton  – A Complete Unknown^
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist^
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Honorable mentions: Austin Amelio – Hit Man, Yura Borisov – Anora^, William Dafoe – Nosferatu, Adam Pearson – A Different Man, Sean San Jose – Sing Sing

Oscar voters did a pretty good job here, likely category fraud aside (more below). Three nominees made my field, another was an HM, and Strong made my longlist (very good but I'm generally tougher on performances based on real people). Lots of other good stuff in the HMs—Amelio might've been my favorite performance in Hit Man, Pearson stole the show every time he was on screen in Different, and San Jose more than held his own against Colman Domingo in Sing Sing. Dafoe was the closest to making my field—as soon as he showed up in Nosferatu I basically did the Leo in OUATIH meme. Let's start my field with a name that was nowhere near any Oscar shortlists.

  • That's right, Casey Affleck in the just-fine Apple TV streamer The Instigators snagged a nom here. He gave maybe the funniest performance of the year with absolute expert timing and delivery—especially impressive given his joke-a-minute pace. But there's also a strong element of pathos, of world-weariness, in his performance. Manchester by the Sea this is not, but he might actually out-Masshole his brother here. He and Hong Chau really elevate an otherwise middling streamer into something very much worth watching.
  • The category fraud comment above was clearly in reference to Kieran Culkin, who is basically a co-lead in Pain with writer/director Jesse Eisenberg. But I'm slotting him here because 1) the Oscars did, and 2) the story is very clearly told from Eisenberg's POV. Controversy aside, his performance is incredible—hilarious and nervy and poignant—even if it's somewhat a remix of his work on Succession. That's no slight—Roman Roy is one of the great TV characters of this century. Culkin has the Oscar sewn up and is a definite contender here.
  • Furiosa didn't seem to click much at all with audiences, and it was definitely received much more coldly by critics than its predecessor. That's a shame, because it's still a pretty great movie even if it's (as expected) a notch or two below Fury Road. It's at least worth watching for Chris Hemsworth as Dementus, maybe the best villain in the whole Mad Max saga. He's a great example of the "villain is the hero of their own story" paradigm and shows surprising dramatic depth amidst all the bellowing and pillaging. His death scene is one of my favorite scenes of the year—he's incredible in it. "Do you have it in you to make it epic?"
  • Edward Norton was the last name to make my field (it was so close between him and Dafoe) for his tender, wounded, unshowy work as Pete Seeger in Unknown. His Seeger is a man who doesn't know his time has passed him by but he still keeps fighting for his values. It's the best performance in a movie that featured a little too much playacting for my liking. He's long been one of my favorite screen presences (shoutout to Kingdom of Heaven director's cut!) and I hope this role gets him back in Hollywood's good graces.
  • Speaking of veteran's getting their due, somehow this is Guy Pearce's first Oscar nomination. He's had at least a half-dozen awards-worthy performances since L.A. Confidential (The Rover is a personal favorite) but his performance as a metaphorical hammer of capitalism in the epic The Brutalist finally put him over the top. His role demands that he dominates the screen every time he's on it and he does so with magnetic ferocity and a twisted empathy. It's stellar work and, again, hopefully just the start of more Oscar-recognized roles.

While Culkin will almost certainly take home the statue on Oscar Sunday, he has to cede the spotlight here to Dementus himself, Chris Hemsworth. I think part of the reason he takes the win here is the unexpected greatness of the performance. While greatness can be expected from the other four nominees (a former Oscar winner, an about-to-be Oscar winner, and two vets with now five Oscar noms between them), Hemsworth had only shown flashes of greatness thus far in his career—he's come a long way from the first Thor movie. And the role of Dementus could have been capably filled by, say, Kevin Durand (no shade!)—and yet Hemsworth had it in him to make it epic and take the fake statue here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adria Arjona – Hit Man
Hong Chau – The Instigators
Katy O'Brian – Love Lies Bleeding
Brigette Lundy-Paine* – I Saw the TV Glow
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
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Honorable mentions: Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown^, Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown, Felicity Jones – The Brutalist^, AnnaSophia Robb – Rebel Ridge, Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez^

I seem to have a tough time filling this category just about every year. But I think the reasons for that are fairly clear. One is institutionalized sexism in the acting industry—there are simply more male character actors than female, and there are more, and meatier, supporting roles for men than women. But the other reason is that I just tend to see more male-skewing movies, making it less likely that I'd see that many great female supporting performances. That's one reason the Oscars actually *are* important—see the three nominees in my HMs. (Just didn't see it with Rossellini and her 5 minutes of screentime, and Wicked was decidedly Not For Me.) That said, the actual Oscar nominees were all beat out by performances from less-heralded movies, including a couple from streamers.

  • I was passingly familiar with Adria Arjona prior to Hit Man, mostly from the rather underappreciated Michael Bay Net Flick 6 Underground. But she hadn't been given a ton to do in many of her previous roles aside from "be hot." Don't get me wrong—she absolutely does that *very well* in Hit Man. But she's also able to take the "abused wife" stock character and subvert the stereotype and make it her own. She also more than holds her own against Glen Powell's nuclear-grade movie star charisma—they have some absolutely incendiary scenes together, especially the Notes app scene, which is easily one of the best scenes of the year.
  • Like Casey Affleck above, Hong Chau rose above the material around her in The Instigators. Her no-nonsense psychiatrist to Matt Damon's character is a great comedic foil to Affleck's character (they have some absolutely hilarious interactions) and somewhat grounds the movie. If not for a very lackadaisical script and straight-to-streamer mindset, this could've been one of the best comedies of the year. Like Arjona above, she's here in large part due to a single scene, the one in which she's both operating on and therapizing Matt Damon. She takes no bullshit from either Damon or Affleck and dishes as much as she takes. Really fun performance.
  • Katy O'Brian was the final name to make my field here, narrowly beating out Barbaro, Jones, and Robb, who all at various points were in the field. Barbaro's Joan Baez was riveting and one of the best parts of Unknown, while Jones delivered some very good Capital A Acting, which typically doesn't do all that well in this space. I quite liked Robb's perky yet pained southern lawyer, but O'Brian's criminal lesbian bodybuilder was just too undeniable—and in basically her feature debut, no less. Come for her scenes with Kristen Stewart, stay for her mid-competition freakout. This was a star-making performance, and we'll be hearing more from O'Brian soon.
  • I'm still wrapping my head around I Saw the TV Glow as a whole, but one thing that's clear is that Brigette Lundy-Paine's performance is absolutely massive. Her transformation from a fairly normal (a little weird but well meaning) teenager to unhinged and haunted adult is as fascinating as it is impressive. Her mid-movie monologue is one of the most captivating and memorable scenes of the year, one that stuck with me long past the final credits. I'm still not sure if Glow "works" (or whether that matters) but I know the whole thing would fall apart without a performance of the caliber of Lundy-Paine's. (*Note: I found out during research that Lundy-Paine now goes by Jack Maven and uses they/them pronouns. But the performance was as Lundy-Paine so that's how I've referred to them here.)
  • That leaves us with the actress that was easily closest to earning an actual Oscar nomination, Margaret Qualley. She very well could have finished sixth in the actual voting for nominees. But she easily made my field here, as The Substance (one of my favorites of the year) flat-out doesn't work without her vacuous yet vital work opposite Demi Moore. She has kind of an un-acting thing going on—she's largely expressionless in many scenes but is still able to communicate a fervent hunger for pleasure, for success, for life. It's also a very fearlessly physical performance—Fargeat demanded a lot from her actresses. I'm more than impressed that the Academy actually nominated Moore, but Qualley deserved a nomination alongside her.

If this was a somewhat tough field to put together, it was also tough to call, especially with such a wide range of femininity represented among the nominees. Arjona, Lundy-Paine, and Qualley all merited serious consideration. It came down to Qualley and Lundy-Paine, two nominees that represent vastly different definitions of femininity. Ultimately, Brigette Lundy-Paine took the fake statue it in a nailbiter. That monologue, my god—absolutely vital, thrilling work. Sometimes one scene is all it takes, which just about every nominee here can attest to.

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist^
Daniel Craig – Queer
David Dastmalchian – Late Night with the Devil
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave^
Josh O’Connor – Challengers
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Honorable mentions: Timothée Chalamet – Dune: Part Two, Colman Domingo – Sing Sing^, Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain, Aaron Pierre – Rebel Ridge, Sebastian Stan – A Different Man

Between my nominees and HMs, we've got all five Oscar nominees represented. Brody, Fiennes, and Chalamet all have a shot to win the statue, although Chalamet was absolutely nominated for the wrong performance, if I may say so. His Dylan vocals are absolutely incredible, but his non-musical performance is mostly just Dylan cosplay. I did find Stan's Trump to be a strong performance, but it's nowhere near as good as his work in A Different Man. Eisenberg was nominated for his A Real Pain script, but he was also worthy as an actor—there's a group dinner scene that might very well be the best-acted scene of the year. (He just didn't ask himself to do much more than that, though.) And Pierre was a knockout in Ridge and could easily wind up back here as a nominee very soon. But on to the five that made my field.

  • Adrien Brody is the odds-on Oscar favorite, and for good reason—he's an absolute marvel as the center of the 3+ hour postwar American epic that is The Brutalist. He'd mostly been slumming in DTV projects the past several years, having seemingly falling out of favor in Hollywood years after becoming the youngest-ever Best Actor winner for The Pianist (which I still haven't seen) in 2002. But the role of László Tóth feels like only a role he could have played, and one that seems primed to win him a second Oscar. His Tóth is a creation of pure pain, ego, and willpower, as fully realized a character as Cate Blanchett's Lydia Tárr to where you leave the theater not quite sure if they were a movie character or historical figure. There is almost no higher compliment you can give to an acting performance than that.
  • Next up is Daniel Craig, who did play a historical figure—or at least a fictionalized version of one. In Queer, Luca Guadagnino's second absolute banger of 2024 after Challengers, Craig plays William Lee (aka William S. Burroughs), a bisexual, drug-addicted, likely wife murderer bumming around 1950s Mexico City. It's about as far removed from James Bond as possible (but not so far removed from Benoit Blanc). Craig easily disappears into the role, utterly magnetic as he stalks his next lover, gets violently drunk, fully blows a dude, and hallucinates on jungle plants. It's a bold performance, and one that I hope sets the stage for a fascinating post-Bond career.
  • There are always some surprise names in my Fake Oscars, but I think David Dastmalchian might be one of the biggest surprises in the history of these blog posts. He's a career character actor who finally got a leading role in a Shudder exclusive in which he plays fictitious late-night host Jack Delroy, who may or may not have helped summon the devil on live TV... and it's easily one of the best performances of the year. He's in just about every frame and expertly balances his on-camera persona with the "real" Jack Delroy backstage. He's funny, charming, tormented, and then unhinged—a performance that signals this man is ready for more leading roles.
  • And then there's Ralph Fiennes, who may actually be my favorite working actor today—he elevates everything he's in and is just so versatile. He actually won this category back in 2016 (the second-ever Fake Oscars!) for playing a character who couldn't be much different than Conclave's Cardinal Lawrence. His Harry Hawkes in A Bigger Splash is all cocaine and (mostly) false bravado, a horny, sun-baked rolling stone—and he's just marvelous. But his Cardinal Lawrence might be just as impressive, even if it's much more intensely internal work—Fiennes is a master of subtle facial tics and body language. (Note that he was also very good in The Return last year and, oh yeah, hangs full dong.)
  • The final name in my field was Josh O'Connor, a new-to-me name who barely fought off strong, ahem, challenges from Domingo, Pierre, and Stan. (His co-star, Mike Faist, made my longlist.) But his perfectly named (for a tennis player) Patrick Zweig was one of my favorite parts of one of my favorite movies of the year, Challengers. (You *will* be hearing more about this movie.) Zweig is an irresistible and not-quite-irredeemable dirtbag who's only slightly better at manipulating people than he is at tennis. O'Conner has an obvious swagger and smoldering charisma who brings out the best in his co-stars, Faist and an absolutely scintillating Zendaya (more on her later for sure). I'm eager to see more from this intriguing talent.

Craig, Dastmalchian, and O'Connor were all very good but a cut below Brody and Fiennes—looks like the Oscar cream rises to the top. And as much as I love Fiennes and dug his work in Conclave, he won't earn his second Fake Oscar this year as Adrien Brody's work is just too transcendent in The Brutalist. It's great to see one of Hollywood's most obvious top talents get back to the top of the mountain. Hopefully he stays there this time.

BEST ACTRESS
Willa Fitzgerald – Strange Darling
Mikey Madison – Anora^
Demi Moore – The Substance^
Fernanda Torres – I'm Still Here^
Zendeya – Challengers
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Honorable mentions: Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders, Lily-Rose Depp – Nosferatu, Kirsten Dunst – Civil War, Naomi Scott – Smile 2, Kristen Stewart – Love Lies Bleeding

Like Best Supporting Actor, we have three nominees in common with the real thing. Missing are Erivo and Gascón, neither of whom even made my longlist as I greatly disliked both of their movies. (Erivo was better than Gascón, although neither were the problem with their movies.) But we do have what seems to be the top three contenders (could see any of them winning the statue), as well as a slew of nominees from horror movies in both the nominees and the HMs. I've long championed horror flicks in this space, especially their actresses (shoutout to Toni Colette in 2018!), while the Oscars are finally catching up this year by nominating Moore. Also in the HMs are some great earlier-year performances from Comer, Dunst, and Stewart. This is a pretty strong field overall. Let's dive in.

  • The heretofore-unknown-to-me Willa Fitzgerald was the final inclusion in the field, just making it over fellow scream queens Depp and Scott. They both give wrenching, physical performances and were very close to making the field, but Fitzgerald's versatility won me over. What you think you know about her character changes from sequence to sequence (Darling is broken up into five parts that unfold non-chronologically) and Fitzgerald effortlessly slides from one facet of her personality to another like a cinematic chameleon. Moore's surprise nomination was a great start, but I hope we see more horror actresses like Fitzgerald, Depp, and Scott nominated in the future.
  • I think—think—Best Actress will come down to Madison and Moore, but I absolutely know (spoilers!) they they are my top two contenders here. A performer from each of Sean Baker's previous two movies has won a Fake Oscar: Willem Dafoe won Best Supporting Actor for The Florida Project back in 2017, and Simon Rex won Best Actor for Red Rocket in 2021Mikey Madison could absolutely continue that streak this year for her fiery, aching, indelible Ani in Anora. In a very similar way to Bria Vinaite in Florida, Madison simply melts into the role of a Brighton Beach stripper who gets tangled up in love and fortune with the son of a Russian oligarch. She's won a ton of precursors and could very well win the Oscar—and the Fake Oscar, something that hasn't actually happened yet.
  • Madison's main competition is, unbelievably if you've seen the movie, Hollywood legend Demi Moore for her physically and emotionally baring work in The Substance. That's right, the goopiest, most bonkers body horror movie of the year is nominated for not one but several major Oscars. I knew Moore would be in this field the moment I walked out of the theater (completely stunned, it must be said), but I didn't think she had much of a shot at a real Oscar nom. So very happy to be proven wrong! She's absolutely deserving—she takes every comment about her looks or body over the years and channels them into a fearless, cathartic performance as Elisabeth. She's nothing short of a revelation and her win would bring the house down on Oscar Sunday.
  • The other real-life Oscar nominee to make my field was Fernanda Torres. She was also the final acting nominee I needed to see, only having watched I'm Still Here the Thursday before the Oscars. (A five-day bachelor party in Nashville takes away a lot of movie-watching time.) But she was an easy, if late, inclusion here for her unadorned, finely calibrated turn as a Brazilian activist, wife, and victim who must stay strong for her family after her husband is kidnapped and murdered by agents of the military-controlled government. What could easily have been a histrionic, Oscar-baity performance was instead quiet, studied—but still heart-breaking—work. She's a darkhorse contender for the Oscar for sure.
  • I'll be honest—I didn't really get Zendaya before Challengers. I'd never heard any of her music, never seen Euphoria. Thought she was fun as MJ in the Tom Holland Spider-Mans and decent as Chani in the Dune movies. But then I saw her as Tashi Duncan and I *got it*. And how! She positively emanates unbridled sex appeal—which is, by the way, completely necessary for the role. But more than that, for every smoldering look she gives, she serves up (zing!) just as many of disappointment, disdain, loathing as she navigates her broken career and marriage. It's the most full-fledged performance I've yet seen from her—and, hopefully, a beacon of what is still to come.

Of all the categories in this post, this one was by far the toughest to decide. I love all the scream queens, and after I walked out of Challengers I was sure Zendaya would win this. But Madison and Moore were a definite cut above the rest, both of whom are more than deserving and give better performances than some past winners here. It was agonizing, but Baker's streak has come to an end: Demi Moore was just too raw, too genuine, too iconic to lose here. I'll be happy for either leading lady at the Oscars, but I'll be pulling for Moore just a bit, well, more.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Sean Baker – Anora^
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain^
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance^
Justin Kuritzkes – Challengers
Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow
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Honorable mentions: Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist^, Justin Kuritzkes – Queer, Richard Linklater and Glen Powell – Hit Man, JT Mollner – Strange Darling, Jeremy Saulnier – Rebel Ridge

As is tradition, just the one screenplay category this year—and it might as well be called Best Original Screenplay since the only one that is even kind of an adaptation is Queer. We've got 4/5 Best Original Screenplay nominees in my field/HMs, and September5 made my longlist. The only Best Adapted nominee that made my longlist was Conclave. A Complete Unknown was a disappointingly standard biopic, the strength of Sing Sing wasn't the script, Emilia Pérez is an actively bad script, and I haven't yet seen Nickel Boys, but it does not seem like the kind of film that would crack this list. (Update: It did not. Very good but not because of writing.) Elsewhere in the HMs you've got a couple excellent streamers (Rebel Ridge and Hit Man) plus the clever Strange Darling. But let's get to the actual nominees.

  • Sean Baker earned screenplay nominations for both The Florida Project and Red Rocket but didn't win either (losing to Jordan Peele for Get Out and Mike Mills for C'mon C'mon). He's obviously an incredible screenwriter, but his films often have an improvised feel that makes them feel less "written." There are large stretches of Anora that have that improvised quality, but it's much more structured than Florida or Rocket and, thus, feels more "written." Baker creates some amazing characters and situations (that kidnapping scene especially) and is the favorite for the Oscar right now—and he's a big contender here as well.
  • A Real Pain was a bit of a revelation for me. Not because it's one of the best or my favorite films of the year (it's not, although it is very good), but because it showed just how talented Jesse Eisenberg really is. I've always enjoyed his screen presence, even if he largely plays variations on the same character, whether in legitimately great films like Adventureland and The Social Network or popcorn fare like Zombieland and Now You See Me. He plays a very similar character in Pain, but his writing allows him to unlock parts of himself as a performer that I've rarely seen (that group dinner scene) and paved the way for Culkin to win an Oscar. Eisenberg himself won't win an Oscar on Sunday, but he almost certainly will someday, whether as a performer or writer.
  • Speaking of revelations, then there's Coralie Fargeat. I had seen and quite liked her previous feature, 2017's Revenge, but The Substance—another visceral, female-centered horror-adjacent trip—was a massive step up in just about every conceivable way. Starting with her script, which creates a not-quite-real world very similar to ours and populates it with vividly drawn caricatures that mostly don't feel like real people with the obvious exception of Moore's Elisabeth. The script is as smart and layered as it is unsubtle and darkly hilarious. It might just get my real Oscar vote if I had one just for its sheer audacity.
  • But that's just because the next two writers weren't even nominated. Justin Kuritzkes seemed to have been hanging on the fringes of a nomination but wound up missing out. Which is a shame, as Challengers is one of the best scripts of the year and one of the best feature debuts in recent memory. It's sexy, it's thorny, it's smart, and it's a helluva lot of fun. Who would have thought that a love triangle set in the world of competitive tennis would also be an insightful rumination on—hold up, let me quote my Letterboxd review—"the fires that burn inside each of us. The fires that move us, compel us, and sometimes burn us—in competition, in the bedroom, in life." All that *plus* the dude wrote Queer for Luca as well. What a year for them both.
  • When I first walked out of Jane Schoenbrun's I Saw the TV Glow, I wasn't sure whether I "got" it. Whether it "worked," plot-wise, character-wise. Then I watched it again recently and realized whether you "get" it or whether it "works" doesn't matter at all. I don't necessarily—but kind of do?—mean to compare it to Mulholland Drive, but Glow is more about vibes, ideas, feelings, who cares whether the events of the movie make logical sense. It's designed to slip into those deep, dark crevasses of your brain and fuck with what it finds there. But it's also warmly humanistic and shows great affection for its influences (everything from Buffy and Pete & Pete to '90s indie rock and, yes, Twin Peaks). It's remarkable work and I'm beyond intrigued to see what they have in store next.

These are all really excellent scripts, but this category was the easiest call so far—game, set, match Justin Kuritzkes. He's now the second writer to win a screenplay award for a Luca film here, after James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name in 2017 (in Adapted Screenplay back when I did two separate categories). Baker is now 0-3 in this category (he'll have to settle for the Director/Picture wins for Florida) but will almost certainly be back. I could also see the other three nominees returning someday as well. Really strong group overall!

BEST DIRECTOR
Mike Cheslik – Hundreds of Beavers
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist^
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance^
Luca Guadagnino – Challengers
Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow
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Honorable mentions: Sean Baker – Anora^, Luca Guadagnino – Queer, George Miller – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys, Walter Salles – I'm Still Here

Like most categories, there's a decent crossover with the actual Oscar nominees—two in the field and one in the HMs (it really hurt to leave Baker out). If you've been paying attention, it should be no surprise that Audiard and Mangold missed out. Besides Baker in the HMs, you've got a second Luca sighting (again: what a year), a more-than-worthy follow-up to Fury Road from Miller, and the directors of two critical darlings who I'm surprised didn't get more Oscar buzz. But on to my nominees, starting with easily the most unexpected name in the field.

  • If you haven't seen Hundreds of Beavers, do yourself a favor and check it out right away. (It's on Amazon Prime and Tubi.) Not only is it, by far, the funniest movie of the year—it's a screwball blend of The Revenant, Looney Tunes–esque slapstick comedy, and Super Mario games—but it is, and I'm only slightly exaggerating here, a cinematic achievement on par with the Avatar movies. Made with a budget of only about $150,000, it's endlessly inventive, a true showcase of the magic of moviemaking—just see it to see what I mean. Massive respect to director Mike Cheslik, who kicked Baker, a personal favorite, to the HMs. I obviously can't wait to see what he does next, even if I strangely hope he doesn't get a bigger budget.
  • What Brady Corbet accomplished with The Brutalist is actually a similarly impressive achievement, albeit on a slightly higher scale. His budget was about $9.6M—while that's nowhere near $150k, it's still absolutely miniscule for most wide releases, much less a 3+ hour epic like The Brutalist. And it was shot in just one month! Just absolute mastery of his craft. I saw and liked his previous feature, 2018's Vox Lux, but like Fargeat, this was an incredible evolution for Corbet. He seems to have fallen slightly behind Baker in the Best Director race, but no one would be surprised if it was Corbet's name that's called out tomorrow night.
  • I covered Coralie Fargeat as a writer above, but now let's talk about her direction. Like her script, it's often remarkably unsubtle—that Dennis Quaid shrimp scene immediately comes to mind here—but that's kind of the point. The world—and Hollywood specifically—is remarkably unsubtle about how it treats women, so Fargeat takes the same approach in her movie. That approach allows her to be as outré or gauche as she wants—which is never more apparent than in the Monstro Elisasue segment in the third act, truly one of the most brazen and bonkers set pieces in any movie ever, much less a Best Picture nominee. It makes me giddy to no end that The Substance got as many nominations as it did.
  • Luca Guadagnino has only one Oscar nomination, but it's not even for Best Director (it's a Best Picture nom for Call Me by Your Name). There's no such injustice in this space: he now has three nominations for CMBYN, Suspiria, and, now Challengers. (And it should probably be four—it took me a second viewing to really come around on A Bigger Splash.) Between Challengers and Queer, I just don't think there's another director working on the same level as Luca right now—he gets the most out of his outstanding casts, he freely takes filmmaking risks (e.g., the tennis editing), and always—always—has sensational music in his films. (Reznor/Ross would be a shoo-in for Best Score if I still did that category.) There's just no one doing it like Luca right now.
  • Like Fargeat above, Jane Schoenbrun also gets the double nod for Screenplay and Director. And like Fargeat they also create their own slightly off-kilter cinematic world—the setting is identifiable as "the suburbs," but the details are just... off somehow. And like Guadagnino, Schoenbrun is really firing on all cylinders here—getting *that* performance out of Lundy-Paine, putting together *that* soundtrack, and creating several unforgettable images (the burning TV, Smith sticking head into his TV, *that* shot in the bathroom at the end). Impressive, impressive stuff, and I'm eager to delve both backward and forward into their work.

This is another really strong field (duh, I put it together) but the final choice was actually pretty easy for me: this is (spoilers) the year of Challengers, so Luca Guadagnino his first-ever Fake Oscar after losses to Baker in 2017 and Ari Aster in 2018. It probably won't be his last—his aesthetic is just that much in my cinematic wheelhouse. He could be a contender as soon as this year, as his next project—an academia-set thriller starring Julia Roberts, Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, and, of course, Michael Stuhlbarg—sounds entirely up my alley.

BEST PICTURE
1. Challengers | Letterboxd Reviews
2. The Beekeeper | Letterboxd Reviews
3. The Substance^ | Letterboxd Review
4. I Saw the TV Glow | Letterboxd Reviews
5. Anora^ | Letterboxd Review
6. Queer Letterboxd Review
7. The Brutalist^ | Letterboxd Review
8. Hundreds of Beavers | Letterboxd Review
9. Late Night with the Devil | Letterboxd Review
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | Letterboxd Review
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Honorable mentions (in order): The Shadow StraysBad Boys: Ride or DieRebel RidgeThe Fall GuyDune: Part Two^

Just three actual Oscar nominees this year (plus Dune in the HMs)—way down from a combined eight last year. That was an unusually strong year, though—as I mentioned way back at the beginning, this was definitely a weaker movie year overall. Not that it's a bad year for movies—I don't think there's such a thing—it's just not an all-timer like last year.

But as you can tell from my #2 above (and the HMs), there's one area where 2024 was a great year: action movies. Yep, you read that right: The Beekeeper is my second-favorite movie of the year. In fact, it spent almost the entire year in the #1 spot (it came out in January) before a recent second viewing of Challengers finally knocked it off its perch.

While it may not be my Best Picture, it *is* the most purely entertaining movie I've seen in a long time, a perfect 5-star rating right out of the gate. I've always been a fan of Statham (Wrath of Man was my Best Picture in 2021), but even then I wasn't quite ready for The Beekeeper. The premise sounds typical of a post-awards January dump: there's a secret group of government operatives called the Beekeepers, and Statham is a former agent gone rogue. But it walks an absolutely perfect line between self-seriousness and parody—even after two viewings I can't tell whether they knew what kind of movie they were making.

But I don't care because the result is absolutely amazing. I saw a Saturday matinee with a few friends and we were just GUFFAWING almost the entire runtime, from the ludicrous suicide that kicks things off to the cop calling someone a "dog fucker" to all the glorious fights and kills to the insane reveal of who the antagonist actually is to, yes, all the bee puns. There have been very few movies I've straight up enjoyed more than The Beekeeper in recent years. As you can probably ascertain, I've positively *turgid* at the recent news that Timo fucking Tjahjanto (he made my Best Director longlist for The Shadow Strays) will be directing the sequel. Best Picture 2025 (or 2026)?

And with that I'll call it a wrap. This is somehow almost as long as last year, when I had a few bonus categories at the end. If you're interested, here's a link to my full, (loosely) ranked list of every 2024 film I've seen. (Add me if you're on there!) Next up is my usual Oscar predix. This is as tough a year to predict as I can remember, so wish me luck! Thank you, as always, for reading.