No Wrong Choice: My 2025 Oscars Predictions

Now that I've written up my annual Fake Oscars, I can turn my attention toward the real thing. As I start writing this on Thursday, there's still a very real two-horse race between One Battle After Another and Sinners, which are actually my top two movies of the year. OBAA is the presumptive favorite, but my personal #1, Sinners, is only the most-nominated film in Oscars history and is riding a ton of momentum and goodwill at the moment. These two films are facing off in no less than five out of the eight major categories. So let's start my usual predix with a category where neither of them figures to win.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan – Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners

Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

After the Golden Globes, I was sure Teyana Taylor would win this award—and she still might. If the Academy likes OBAA even more than we thought—and they already like it a lot—that tide could lift Taylor to an Oscar. The same logic applies to Mosaku, my personal favorite performance of the nominees. The Sentimental Value ladies (Lilleaas is excellent; Fanning is merely good) are also-rans here. All that said, odds and prognostications seem to have crystalized around Amy Madigan for her wonderfully demented work as Aunt Gladys in Weapons. She certainly wouldn't get my vote, but I'm all for more horror representation at the most prestigious awards show of them all, so I won't be mad at all if she hoists the trophy on Sunday. I'm also not entirely ruling out an upset for Taylor or Mosaku.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Mosaku, 2) Taylor, 3) Lilleaas, 4) Madigan, 5) Fanning

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo – Sinners

Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

This race seems a little more wide open, as just about everyone has won a major precursor: del Toro won the NBR, Elordi won the Critics Choice, Penn won the SAG and BAFTA, and Skarsgård won the Golden Globe. Only Lindo doesn't have a major precursor to his name—yet he's still alive as a spoiler, a well-respected veteran who could benefit from a Sinners night. He has more of a chance than del Toro (who has been overtaken by Penn) and Elordi (who just feels like an also-ran). But this figures to come down to Penn and Skarsgård, another respected vet up for his first-ever Oscar. It seems that Penn didn't really campaign much for what would be his third Oscar, potentially opening the door for someone else. But that hasn't stopped him from winning yet, including two of the more important precursors. So I'm going with Sean Penn for his slimy, scheming Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Lindo, 2) Penn, 3) Skarsgård, 4) del Toro, 5) Elordi

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

Emma Stone – Bugonia

This is the first of three major categories that feel all but sewn up at this point. The tastefully named Jessie Buckley will almost certainly win for her performance as Agnes Shakespeare in the torporous Hamnet. I'm not sure why voters have flocked to this overwrought performance all awards season long when rangier, more layered performances from Byrne and Reinsve were right there. Oh well. Buckley is verifiably a talented actress, so it's not the worst thing in the world that she'll have an Oscar on her mantel. Of the rest, I liked Stone's Bugonia performance, but she's been better. Hudson was also quite good but her nomination was more of a feat of Hollywood campaigning (a la Andrea Riseborough a few years back) than on the merits of her just-fine-in-an-inspirational-movie performance.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Byrne, 2) Reinsve, 3) Stone, 4) Buckley, 5) Hudson

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

This is the only major category where nothing would really surprise me. Now, Hawke and Moura winning would be monumental upsets, but I wouldn't be completely shocked. I do think this comes down to one of Chalamet, DiCaprio, and Jordan, though—all of whom have been frontrunners at one point. Leo's time in the sun was shortest-lived, really for maybe only a few weeks after OBAA came out. For much of awards season, Chalamet has seemingly been in front, but his chances have faded a bit of late due to off-screen him constantly putting his foot in his mouth on the awards circuit and off-screen controversy around the Safdies. It's really only been of late that Michael B. Jordan has gained frontrunner status, fresh off his monumental SAG win. If Sinners winds up missing out on the top prizes, this could be a great chance for the Academy to award the film in a big way.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Jordan, 2) DiCaprio, 3) Chalamet, 4) Hawke, 5) Moura

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Tracy – Bugonia

Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein

Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell – Hamnet

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Train Dreams

Both writing categories seem pretty much locked at this point. Paul Thomas Anderson should easily win his first Oscar (ever, but also of the night?) for OBAA. He's won just about every precursor imaginable and his film is the Best Picture frontrunner, so this is one of the easiest calls of the night. Of the rest, only Tracy's Onion-article-came-to-life script for Bugonia impressed me. Hamnet and Train Dreams are typical awards bait and I honestly don't know why del Toro's very faithful Frankenstein adaptation was nominated here.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Anderson, 2) Tracy, 3) Bentley and Kwedar, 4) del Toro, 5) Zhao and O'Farrell

Best Original Screenplay

Robert Kaplow – Blue Moon

Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident

Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Ryan Coogler – Sinners

Like I said above, this category is all but decided: Ryan Coogler will win his first Oscar (of the night?) for Sinners. Like Anderson, he has won basically all the major precursors and his film is firmly in the top two in the Best Picture race. He's gonna win here. Overall, this is a much stronger category than Adapted—which is always the case. It'll never happen, but I'd like to see just one writing award like the Golden Globes. Anyway, Vogt and Trier's script is my second-favorite of the nominees, but there's no real weak link. Bronstein and Safdie do Uncut Gems, but Different; Panahi crafted a compelling thriller out of little more than a prosthetic leg, a van, and a wedding dress; and even Blue Moon was eminently watchable even though there are few things I care about on this earth less than Broadway musicals.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Coogler, 2) Vogt and Trier, 3) Bronstein and Safdie, 4) TBD, 5) TBD

Best Director

Chloé Zhao – Hamnet

Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Ryan Coogler – Sinners

Yep, we've got another, ahem, battle between OBAA and Sinners. Zhao is a previous winner and is probably #3 on the most ballots, while Trier is a first-time nominee here (after original screenplay and international film nominations for The Worst Person in the World in 2022) and Safdie nabbed his first-ever Oscar nom. But none of them have chance as this will come down to Anderson and Coogler. While I think Coogler's work is slightly superior, consensus seems to be that Paul Thomas Anderson will win his first Best Director Oscar in four attempts. His film is timely, moving, funny, and, obviously impeccably crafted—I just think Sinners is just a generational achievement. But I'll be happy for PTA.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Coogler, 2) Anderson, 3) Safdie, 4) Trier, 5) Zhao

Best Picture

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

I usually go on a bit of a "bigger picture" tangent for this category, trying to figure out what a win for certain films will mean for the Academy, for the filmmaking industry, for pop culture at large. You know, "What's at stake?" I'd love to do so this year, but I'm unfortunately running out of time—the ceremony starts in just over an hour and we have to pick up booze and snacks on our way to our usual small Oscar gathering.

So I'll just say this for now. (Note that I may come back and add in my tangent after the fact.) When choosing between OBAA and Sinners, there's no wrong choice. They're two of the best films of this decade and would both be more than deserving winners. I personally prefer Sinners—the year's only true masterpiece, I think—but would be very happy for PTA and OBAA should they prevail. (I do think Director/Picture will be a package deal, but a split wouldn't *totally* shock me.)

So I don't really think much is at stake this year. The two contenders are both outstanding efforts, personal films from two of the most talented writer-directors working today. When you look at the numbers, it's kind of hard to deny One Battle After Another. It's just won so many of the big, important precursors. Sinners does seem to have momentum and "vibes" on its side, so an mini-upset here wouldn't really surprise me. But I think it'll be OBAA up on stage when all is said and done.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Sinners, 2) One Battle After Another, 3) Bugonia, 4) Sentimental Value, 5) F1, 6) Marty Supreme, 7) The Secret Agent, 8) Frankenstein, 9) Train Dreams, 10) Hamnet

As usual, we'll go LIGHTNING ROUND for the remaining categories.

Best International Feature Film
Sentimental Value (Norway) – directed by Joachim Trier
I'm not going to look this up, but I assume that every film in this category that has also been nominated for Best Picture has won. So The Secret Agent could also win, but this is the clear frontrunner.
My Non-Existent Vote: Sentimental Value

Best Animated Feature Film
KPop Demon Hunters  – directed by Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans
Zootopia 2 had huge box office numbers, so you can't discount it here. But KPop Demon Hunters is far and away the year's most talked-about animated movie and is the definite frontrunner here.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Feature
The Perfect Neighbor – directed by Geeta Gandbhir
This seems to be between Neighbor and Mr Nobody Against Putin. Both are timely but I'm guessing the more US-centric one will prevail. I can't even remember the last time I saw a nominee here.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Cinematography
Michael Bauman – One Battle After Another
Like many categories, this one seems to be between Sinners and OBAA. I personally prefer Autumn Durald Arkapaw's work for Sinners, but it's hard to argue with American Society of Cinematographers. 
My Non-Existent Vote: Autumn Durald Arkapaw – Sinners

Best Editing
Andy Jurgensen – One Battle After Another
Both Sinners and OBAA won ACE Eddies in their genres, so this is a fascinating showdown. Whoever wins Best Picture will likely win this category, and the odds seem to favor OBAA right now.
My Non-Existent Vote: Michael P. Shawver – Sinners

Best Casting
Francine Maisler – Sinners
Hey, a new category! (The first of two—there will be an Oscar for stunts starting next year.) Maisler seems to be the deserved frontrunner for assembling Sinners's fantastic—and diverse—cast.
My Non-Existent Vote: Maisler

Best Original Score
Ludwig Göransson – Sinners
This is one of the easiest calls of the night—Göransson should win his third Oscar for his incredible Sinners score, which is maybe the best score since The Social Network.
My Non-Existent Vote: Göransson

Best Original Song
"Golden" – Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park (from KPop Demon Hunters )
Another easy call—nothing stands a chance against KPop Demon Hunters. I like but don't love the song from Sinners. I'd personally go with Nick Cave's end credits song for Train Dreams.
My Non-Existent Vote: "Train Dreams" – Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner (from Train Dreams)

Best Sound
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta – F1
Blockbusters typically do well here—see Dune: Part 2 last year and Top Gun: Maverick two years ago. The latter was directed by Joseph Kosinski, who also directed F1. OBAA or Sinners could be spoilers.
My Non-Existent Vote: Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker – Sinners

Best Production Design

Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau – Frankenstein
Frankenstein's very impressive sets should make it two monster movies in a row in this category after Nosferatu's win last year. OBAA and Sinners were also impressive, albeit less flashy.
My Non-Existent Vote: Deverell and Vieau

Best Costume Design
Kate Hawley – Frankenstein
This one usually goes to a period piece or a fantasy movie, and Frankenstein is both. The costumes were indeed very good but I'd love it if this category didn't always go to the "fanciest" costumes.
My Non-Existent Vote: Ruth E. Carter – Sinners

Best Visual Effects
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett – Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Avatar movies should be three for three in this category after tonight. And deservingly so—none of the other nominees is even close to Fire and Ash.
My Non-Existent Vote: Letteri, Baneham, Saindon, and Barrett

Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey – Frankenstein
This category often gets coupled with the winner of Best Costume Design—again, especially if it's a period piece or fantasy movie. That figures to be the case once again this year with Frankenstein.
My Non-Existent Vote: Hill, Samuel, and Furey

Best Live Action Short
The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
My favorite of the bunch, Two People Exchanging Saliva, seems to be the frontrunner, but I wonder if it's a bit too... odd for Oscar voters. Plus Netflix already has two wins in this category this decade.
My Non-Existent Vote: Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Best Animated Short
Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
Like last year, the animated shorts were underwhelming. Butterfly has the weightiest subject matter (the Holocaust) and painterly animation, which could set it up to win. But, again, none were impressive.
My Non-Existent Vote: Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman

Best Documentary Short
All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
I never have and will never sit through all the nominees. As usual, I just checked a few prediction articles and odds sites. This seems to be the favorite.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

I feel a bit more confident this year than last year, when I got only 17/23. Providing OBAA prevails, I should be able to top that this year. But I'll be rooting to be wrong and for a big Sinners night. But, again, there is no wrong choice here.

2026 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Mid-to-late January generally means two things to cinema buffs (well, this cinema buff, anyway): the anniversary of Heath Ledger's death and Oscar nomination Thursday. Both happen to fall on the same day this year: January 22nd. As we approach that mournful, yet celebratory, day, many of the major categories feel fairly settled, with maybe only a spot or two truly up for grabs. We also have a clear overall frontrunner, with One Battle After Another feeling inevitable in several of the major categories (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress). But there are always some surprises come nomination morning. Let's see if I can suss them out, or at least match last year's 38/45 correct guesses. Let's start with the screenplay categories, with nominees listed in order of likely nomination, as usual.

* = haven't seen it

^ = early winner prediction

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another^
Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell – Hamnet
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Train Dreams*
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
Will Tracey – Bugonia*
---

Other contenders:
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Don McKellar, and Lee Ja-hye – No Other Choice
Rian Johnson – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
James Vanderbilt – Nuremberg*

The field seems to have coalesced around these five nominees, making for a rather underwhelming category. That's rather typical for this one—I doubt it but I'd wonder if AMPAS would ever consider going the Golden Globes route and including only one screenplay category. (Even my annual Fake Oscars did this years ago.) At this point, OBAA looks to be a shoo-in win. Hamnet has its fans, but I found it rather one-note and not particularly affecting. Haven't seen Train Dreams or Bugonia but hear good things. I'm a bit baffled by Frankenstein—it was a perfectly serviceable adaptation that didn't really add much new to an oft-told tale. If that or Bugonia were to miss out, Park and the No Other Choice team or Johnson for his latest Knives Out entries would be worthy nominees.

Wishful thinking:  Alex Garland – 28 Years Later, JT Mollner – The Long Walk

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Ryan Coogler – Sinners^
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt – Sentimental Value

Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident*
Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein – Marty Supreme
Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby*

---
Other contenders:
Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent*

Robert Kaplow – Blue Moon*
Zach Cregger – Weapons

As always, this is looking like a much stronger field. Starting at the top, Sinners is looking like the frontrunner as the most likely place to award a very well-liked film that could get shut out in the rest of the major categories. The two international films seem like safe bets—Trier is a previous nominee and Pahani's film won the Palme d'Or. The same goes for the surging Marty Supreme, which is nearly as panic-inducing as Uncut Gems at times. That leaves one slot open for a host of potential nominees, none of which I have seen besides Weapons, which I'm so pleased to see as a potential Oscar nominee. (I'll be rooting for Cregger for sure.) But I *think* this'll come down to Sorry, Baby versus The Secret Agent. Sometimes you have to play the demographics game with the Academy, so I'll predict the (female-presenting) nonbinary Victor over a third international nominee. But nothing would surprise me.

Wishful thinking: Ari Aster – Eddington, Andrew DeYoung – Friendship

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another^
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Odessa A’Zion – Marty Supreme
---
Other contenders:
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good*
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

I'm quite nervous about this category for a couple reasons, which could possibly be interrelated toward the bottom of the list. But let's start at the top, where the first three names seem quite safe. Like Zoe Saldaña last year and Da'Vine Joy Randolph the year prior, the phenomenal Taylor has this race all but won even before the nominees are announced. Madigan and Lilleaas have been just behind her all awards season and are basically locks for nominations. (Both are excellent in VERY different ways, haha.) Next, I truly hope Mosaku doesn't get overlooked for what I think could very well be the best performance by any female actor in any movie last year. She *seems* to be relatively safe, but she doesn't exactly feel like a true lock either. Behind her, the next three names all seem on about the same ground. Marty Supreme has a ton of momentum right now, which could catapult A'Zion to a nomination. Wicked: For Good, thankfully, has faded significantly but there seems to still be support for Grande. (I'm really hoping that one misses out on any major category noms so I don't have to suffer through it. Did NOT like the first one at all.) Finally, similar to A'Zion, Fanning can ride her film's momentum to a (somewhat surprising) nom. This category is probably the one I'll be paying the closest attention to in the morning.

Wishful thinking: Jodie Comer – 28 Years Later, Diane Kruger – The Shrouds

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value^
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein

Paul Mescal – Hamnet
---
Other contenders:
Miles Caton – Sinners
Delroy Lindo – Sinners

Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly

Okay, there shouldn't really be any drama in this field—these five names are almost certainly your nominees. Skarsgård and del Toro have been racking up most of the precursor awards, and Penn and Elordi have been right behind them. All are varying degrees of excellent and are very worthy nominees. Mescal is quite good in a film I didn't particularly care for and is coming off of nominations at the Golden Globes and SAGs (now apparently called the "Actor Awards") and seems very safe. Caton received a SAG nomination himself (he's incredible in Sinners), but that was seemingly only because Skarsgård somehow wasn't nominated. I don't think he—or the also outstanding—Lindo have much of a shot of breaking through, but I'd be happy if they did. I found the hype around Sandler's performance to be a bit overblown. While I'm a big fan of his dramatic work, he's good in Kelly but hardly great.

Wishful thinking: Josh O'Connor – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Paul Rudd – Friendship

BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet^
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You*
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia*
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue*
---
Other contenders:
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee*

This one feels a bit like Supporting Actress where the top three seem like locks, the fourth name seems fairly secure, and then there's three names with a relatively equal shot at the final nomination. At the top, are we potentially headed toward another dramatic Best Actress showdown? Last year, we had Demi Moore versus eventual winner Mikey Madison (I still think the Academy got that one wrong!). This year, we have Buckley, the current favorite, versus her Golden Globes co-winner Byrne. I'll weigh in on this race more after I've seen Legs (but for now I'll say Buckley was perfunctorily good, but not much more.) Behind them, Reinsve is a relative lock after missing out for (Fake Oscar–winning!) The Worst Person in the World, while Stone looks pretty safe to earn another nomination for her latest collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos. That leaves one spot for Hudson, Infiniti, or Seyfried. Infiniti seems to be the betting favorite, and she'd be quite worthy. But it's not 100% clear that she's actually a lead actress, and I wonder if she might be too new of a name when compared to Hudson and Seyfried. I have a feeling one of them sneaks in there, but I'd be happy to be wrong (as I'm not particularly interested in seeing either of their films). Let's go with the well-liked Hudson as the spoiler.

Wishful thinking: Julia Garner – Weapons, Julia Roberts – After the Hunt

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme^
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent*
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon*
---
Other contenders:
Jesse Plemons – Bugonia*

Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams*

Stop me if you've heard this one before—the first four names seem secure with three contenders for the final slot. The race at the top of the field will be fascinating—I was somewhat surprised by Chalamet's Globes win over DiCaprio, especially given OBAA's domination elsewhere. I wonder if the Oscars this year could be viewed as a "crowning" for the young Chalamet at the expense of Leo's (to me, superior) performance. Worse things have happened at the Oscars. Moving on, Jordan (maybe better than both in his dual role) and the Globe-winning Moura (looking forward to his film) seem safe, if also-rans to the top two. That leaves one spot for Hawke, Plemons, or Edgerton. I'm seeing a lot of predictions in Plemons's favor in the old "blogosphere," but Bugonia, to me, doesn't feel like a film with a ton of broad support. While on the other hand, you have a respected veteran (Hawke) playing a Broadway legend in a Richard Linklater movie. Yeah, I could see that doing well in voting, so I'm going with him. (Haven't seen Edgerton's movie but I'm a fan and would be tickled to see Hugo Croop himself get an Oscar nom.)

Wishful thinking: David Jonsson – The Long Walk, Joaquin Phoenix – Eddington

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another^
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident*
Chloe Zhao – Hamnet

Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
---
Other contenders:
Joaquim Trier – Sentimental Value

Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent*

As usual, this is one of—if not the—toughest categories to predict. I don't feel especially confident in anyone aside from frontrunner PTA and Coogler (who'd probably get my vote). From there, you've got a trio of international nominees (Panahi, Trier, and Mendonça), two previous winners (Zhao and del Toro), and and up-and-comer with a couple of near-classics to his name in Safdie. So let's try to narrow it down from there. I just think Panahi's backstory (from imprisonment to the Palme d'Or) is too good for the Academy to pass up, so I think he makes the field. Then I think Zhao is a good bet, fresh off her Golden Globes win and DGA nomination. That leaves Safdie (also DGA-nominated), Trier, del Toro (also DGA-nominated), and Mendonça. I just don't know if I see broad enough support for del Toro's and Mendonça's films, so the final slot could come down to Safdie and Trier. This is really too close to call, but I'll give the final slot to Safdie with the DGA nomination being the tiebreaker. But, again, outside of PTA and Coogler, no combination of the other six names—or even someone heretofore unmentioned—would surprise me much. Director's branch gonna director's branch.

Wishful thinking: Ari Aster – Eddington, Joseph Kosinski – F1

BEST PICTURE
One Battle After Another^
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
It Was Just an Accident*

Bugonia*
The Secret Agent*

Train Dreams*
---
Other contenders:
F1
Wicked: For Good*
Weapons
Avatar: Fire and Ash

No Other Choice

I'm not expecting a ton of drama here in our final category. If you look at the projected nominees above (at least 80% accurate or your money back!), they are dominated by the 10 films listed here. OBAA and Sinners both have the potential to tie or even break the all-time nominations record of 14 (All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land). Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value have possible or even likely winners in major categories. They're all stone cold locks. Then you have Frankenstein, which figures to have a ton of support from the technical branches, Accident's Palme d'Or and incredible backstory, and Bugonia's Lanthimos/Stone magic. Those feel safe-ish. Now, could a blockbuster like F1 or the Wicked/Avatar sequels sneak in over a smaller movie like Agent or Dreams? Sure. I'll be rooting for F1, which I loved. The same goes for Weapons and No Other Choice, which would be more than worthy nominees. But this category feels strangely settled. I guess we'll find out in the morning if I was off-base!

Wishful thinking: Eddington, Warfare

Hey, I got this done pretty early! It's Wednesday afternoon here in Arizona. I'm usually cranking this out late in the night, or even after midnight. Ah, the benefits of a slow workweek. In the morning, I'll be rooting for F1, Weapons, and No Other Choice to pick up unexpected nominations, Wunmi Mosaku to break through in Supporting Actress, and the Wicked sequel to miss out in the major categories. Anything for Eddington, one of my favorites and one I think will be remembered as one of the most important movies of the year, would be awesome. Other than that, just looking forward to seeing what I have to catch up with before 3/15. I gripe sometimes, but this is truly one of my favorite times of the year. Adios until my predictions and Fake Oscars in mid-March!

An Unpredictable Night: My 2024 Oscars Predictions

All right, y'all, let's get down to it. I've been writing about the films of 2024 basically the entire weekend, so it's time to bang out my usual Oscar predix. I'm not expecting to do very well, as this is probably the toughest year to predict in recent memory. I think there's really only a couple true locks in all the major categories and while there are certainly favorites in the rest, most of them are true toss-ups. So this should be wild. Let's get it on.

Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

This *should* be a lock—my predicted winner Zoe Saldaña has won just about every precursor imaginable. However, her co-star Karla Sofía Gascón's recently unearthed racist tweets have doomed Emilia Pérez in pretty much every other category, and it wouldn't shock me to see Saldaña ultimately lose as well. But she has such a huge lead that she's likely safe. If an upset were to occur, Grande would likely benefit, with Rossellini as a darkhorse (even though she's in the movie for like five minutes and only has one memorable scene). I don't think anyone but Saldaña will win, but you never know with this particular ceremony. (P.S. This is a very weak year in this category.)

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Barbaro, 2) Jones, 3) Saldaña, 4) Grande, 5) Rossellini

Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

The one guarantee tonight is that Kieran Culkin will win this category—he's won even more precursors than Saldaña (probably; I haven't actually done the research on that). He's a very deserving winner even though he's won countless awards for playing basically the same character in Succession. (No knock, though—Roman Roy is an incredible TV character.) This is a very strong field and I wouldn't be mad if any of the other nominees won. It's great to see Strong (Culkin's Succession co-star) nominated for his maniacally dedicated work, and Norton and Pearce are longtime favorites getting recognized for really great work. Borisov was new to me but Anora doesn't work without him.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Pearce, 2) Culkin, 3) Norton, 4) Strong, 5) Borisov

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison – Anora

Demi Moore – The Substance

Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Okay, well, now I'm not enjoying this now that I have to make an actually difficult decision. This will come down to Madison and Moore, and I absolutely adore both performances. Both have won their share of precursors, but Demi Moore has won more of the ones that matter, and she has the stronger narrative with this being her first Oscar nomination in a 40+ year film career (versus Madison's still-nascent career). I'll be firmly rooting for Moore, although I'd be happy for Madison were she to win. Or darkhorse Torres, who was excellent as well. There are no scenarios where Erivo or Gascón win.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Moore, 2) Madison, 3) Torres, 4) Erivo, 5) Gascón

Best Actor

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

There's a growing contingent of prognosticators predicting Chalamet to win this, and I must confess I don't really get it. Yes, he is able to uncannily replicate Dylan's voice and guitar during the (many) musical numbers, but when he has to actually act as Dylan, the man, it's merely passable cosplay. And I recognize that there is some sort of AI controversy surrounding The Brutalist's Hungarian dialogue, but... come the fuck on. I'm about as anti-AI as you can get but I just can't be bothered by that shit. Adrien Brody is absolutely phenomenal in The Brutalist and is completely deserving of a second Oscar. But this is a heart-over-head pick and I'm more than prepared to be wrong here.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Brody, 2) Fiennes, 3) Domingo, 4) Stan, 5) Chalamet

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez

Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing

James Mangold and Jay Cocks – A Complete Unknown

RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys

Peter Straughan – Conclave

This is the only other real lock of the major categories after Culkin—Peter Straughan should win this in a possible precursor for a Conclave Best Picture upset. Although none are particularly likely, there are probably more scenarios for Straughan losing than Culkin. If tonight is, for some reason, an A Complete Unknown night, Mangold and Cocks (elite law firm/porn star duo name) would benefit. And Nickel Boys likely has more passionate advocates than Conclave and could potentially emerge as the Benitez of the night's proceedings. (Inside Conclave joke, zing!) The Perez and Sing Sing scripts have no shot.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Straughan, 2) Bentley and Kwedar, 3) Ross and Barnes, 4) Mangold and Cocks, 5) Audiard

Best Original Screenplay

Sean Baker – Anora

Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David – September 5

Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist

Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Although I wouldn't say it's a true lock, I fully expect Sean Baker to win his first Oscar—but maybe not his last tonight—for his Anora script. Although it won the Palme d'Or, Anora nevertheless entered Oscar season as somewhat as an afterthought before really coming on in the last month or so. And Baker has by all accounts impressed voters and audiences at each subsequent award he and his film have won. He's a personal favorite and I'll be heartily rooting for him tonight. If there's a spoiler it would likely be Eisenberg (another personal favorite). I'd absolutely love a Fargeat win but it seems like a (very) longshot along with Corbet and Fastvold. The September 5 team has no shot—although the film was very well written. Do note that a Baker loss here could be a disastrous signal for Anora's Best Picture chances.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Baker, 2) Fargeat, 3) Eisenberg, 4) Binder, Fehlbaum, and David, 5) Corbet and Fastvold

Best Director

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker – Anora

Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

There are only two real contenders here: Baker and Corbet. Corbet has the Globe and the BAFTA while Baker has the all-important DGA (plus, implicitly, the PGA and WGA). Corbet had the early momentum but recent developments have made this Sean Baker's award to lose. I don't think he will. I've been a huge fan since The Florida Project (one of my favorite films of the past decade) and am glad to see him finally getting recognition from major awards bodies. That said, The Brutalist is incredible and I'll be quite happy for Corbet were he to pull off the "upset." (And he'd actually get my vote!) Don't see this category going down any other way, but a Fargeat win would be absolutely epic (and deserving). Again, as mentioned above, a Baker loss here bodes very poorly for Anora in Best Picture.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Corbet, 2) Fargeat, 3) Baker, 4) Mangold, 5) Audiard

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

Not all that long ago, I was sure that tonight would be The Brutalist's night. It won a trio of major categories at the Golden Globes (Actor, Director, and Motion Picture – Drama) and just had that air of prestige that often does well with the Academy. (Is that coding for "post-Holocaust epic"? Perhaps.) But other than those Globes wins, The Brutalist has mostly fallen by the wayside as two new contenders emerged: Anora and Conclave.

Clear frontrunner Anora has really come on strong of late, winning the big DGA, PGA, and WGA prizes in recent weeks. However, the one guild award it didn't win was the SAG, which Conclave picked up in a mild upset, complicating the Best Picture race. But I think the SAG win, impressive as it was, might've been too little, too late for a film most seem to like rather than love. I think more voters loved Anora, which helps a lot in the Academy's preferential ballot system. So I think Anora takes the big prize of the night—which would be no surprise at all if Baker were to win both Original Screenplay and Director.

At this point, I usually like to wax a bit poetic about the "big picture" and "what's at stake," ask "What would an Anora (or Conclave) win mean?" I'll give it my best shot, but this year seems similar to, say, 2021 or 2022 in that there's not a ton at stake. As great as Anora is (ditto The Brutalist) and as very good as Conclave is, I wouldn't see a win by either as anything truly notable or as presaging some new direction or trend in US cinema. Films that won the Palme d'Or like Anora did rarely win the Oscar—but Parasite did just that five years ago. It's also an independent film, which rarely win Best Picture—but Nomadland and CODA also did in the two years linked above. And Conclave? Conclave would be like every other good but not great prestige drama to win this category (for any number of recent examples, look at the Best Picture winners of the 2010s).

So, yeah, I like both movies and wouldn't get too bent out of shape were either to win (although I do definitely prefer Anora). At least there's a good amount of drama/unpredictability in the major categories, which isn't always the case. (See: last year.) And nothing that would really piss me off, thankfully. (Emilia Pérez sweep incoming!) Tonight should be an enjoyable, if ultimately not too consequential, ceremony. I'm just fine with that.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) The Substance, 2) Anora, 3) The Brutalist, 4) Dune: Part Two, 5) I'm Still Here, 6) Conclave, 7) Nickel Boys, 8) A Complete Unknown, 9) Wicked, 10) Emilia Pérez

As usual, we'll go LIGHTNING ROUND for the remaining categories.

Best International Feature Film
I'm Still Here (Brazil) – directed by Walter Salles
This has long been Emilia Pérez's award to lose, but I think the Gascón controversy—along with the fact that this is a very bad movie!—allows a surging, and excellent, I'm Not Here to swoop in.
My Non-Existent Vote: I'm Still Here

Best Animated Feature Film
The Wild Robot  – directed by Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
Flow has a real shot here (it's also nominated for Best International Feature) and it would not surprise me at all if it wins here. But I'm going with the favorite.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Feature
No Other Land – directed by Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, and Yuval Abraham
This one seems to be between No Other Land and Porcelain War, which are both about very timely topics (Israel/Palestine, Ukrainian War). Going with the favorite here as well.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Cinematography
Lol Crawley – The Brutalist
Crawley is a big favorite and deservingly so for creating some of the most memorable images of the year (we've all seen the upside-down Statue of Liberty). Nosferatu and Dune are deserving longshots.
My Non-Existent Vote: Crawley

Best Editing
Nick Emerson – Conclave
For some reason the ACE Eddie awards aren't for another couple weeks, which makes this category tougher to predict. Emerson seems to be the favorite for the well-put-together Conclave.
My Non-Existent Vote: Dávid Jancsó – The Brutalist

Best Original Score
Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Blumberg is a sizeable favorite for his excellent Brutalist score, but I wonder if there's a "more is better" thing going on here, as Bertelmann's work is superior.
My Non-Existent Vote: Volker Bertelmann – Conclave

Best Original Song
"El Mal" – Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard (from Emilia Pérez)
The Emilia Pérez songs are mostly awful but this one is at least tolerable. But there is a very realistic possibility that Pérez misses out here due to Gascón and Diane fucking Warren wins her first Oscar.
My Non-Existent Vote: "Like a Bird" – Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada (from Sing Sing)

Best Sound
Tod Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, David Giammarco – A Complete Unknown
Dune seems to be the favorite, but the first one won this category and Unknown and Wicked are very well regarded. Dune won the sound editors guild award, while Unknown one the sound mixing award.
My Non-Existent Vote: Maitland, Sylvester, Caplan, Massey, and Giammarco

Best Visual Effects
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer – Dune: Part Two
Dune is a huge favorite here, and deservingly so—it's in another class entirely than the other nominees (although Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' effects were quite good). Wicked looked like total shit.
My Non-Existent Vote: Lambert, James, Salcombe, and Nefzer

Best Production Design
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales – Wicked
I did not at all like Wicked but will concede that the set designs were pretty good. (Unlike the visual effects!) The other nominees were also strong, especially Nosferatu.
My Non-Existent Vote: Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerová – Nosferatu

Best Costume Design
Paul Tazewell – Wicked
This might be the lock of the night. Wicked certainly has the "most" costumes, which is probably doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Not a super strong field overall (no Anora, Brutalist, Furiosa?).
My Non-Existent Vote: Linda Muir – Nosferatu

Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli – The Substance
Okay, the one thing that might piss me off is if The Substance lost here—the work of this team is just so integral to the movie. The rest of the nominees are all solid, but this has to be The Substance.
My Non-Existent Vote: Persin, Guillon, and Scarselli

Best Live Action Short
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek
This was a really strong crop of live action shorts this year, but I was a bit surprised to see Silent as the favorite per prognosticators and oddsmakers. It was the least impactful to me. A Lien also has a shot.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Last Ranger – Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw

Best Animated Short
Wander to Wonder – Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
Conversely, the animated shorts were quite disappointing this year. They were mostly trite, boring, or weird. Wander (weird) is at least different enough to distinguish itself from the rest.
My Non-Existent Vote: Wander to Wonder

Best Documentary Short
I Am Ready, Warden – Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
*Checks internet.* Okay then, going with this one. As always, you'd have to pay me a significant sum of money to sit through these.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

This is a strange year in the Oscar predicting game. I actually feel more confident in most of the down-ballot categories than the major ones. Last year, I got 17/23 with just one major category miss. I don't feel at all confident that I can beat or even tie that number this year. As far as what I'll be rooting for, Demi Moore and Sean Baker are at the top of my list, as well as an I'm Still Here upset over Emilia Pérez in International Feature. Oh, and an out-of-nowhere win for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for the Challengers score. (How was that not nominated??) Happy Oscar night, y'all!

2025 Oscar Nominations Predictions

It's a little later than expected, as the nominations announcement was delayed by a week due to the L.A. wildfires, but Oscar nominations morning is finally almost here. At least the delay gave him time to do a bit more research, as I was able to catch up with The Brutalist, which seems to be the Best Picture frontrunner at the moment, as well as next year's Best Picture winner, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera. (Only half-kidding.) The Brutalist is definitely a different—and not as strong—frontrunner than Oppenheimer was at this time last year, and may of the top categories seem more unsettled in what seems to be seen as a much weaker year for cinema than 2023 was. I'm not sure I agree with that sentiment, but I will say that the Best Picture slate probably won't be as strong as last year's group. With that in mind, let's try to piece together what the top eight categories might look like in the morning, with the nominees listed in presumed order of likelihood. I think I got 40/45 last year, which I can't imagine equaling this year, much less topping, but let's give it a whirl!

* = haven't seen it
^ = early winner prediction

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Peter Straughan – Conclave^
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez*
James Mangold and Jay Cocks – A Complete Unknown
Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox – Wicked

RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys*
---
Other contenders:

Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing*
Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega – I’m Still Here*
Jon Spaihts – Dune: Part Two

To me, it looks like the top three are locks, with the next three fighting for the final two spots. Conclave and, apparently, Emilia Perez figure to be among the most-nominated films, with A Complete Unknown not too far behind. They seem like pretty safe bets, which means another movie likely to be nominated, Wicked, will be duking it out with several smaller films. As Academy membership continues to grow and diversify, their voting tendencies get harder and harder to predict, with seemingly more room for indies like Nickel Boys and Sing Sing (and potentially I'm Still Here), while nominations for box office smashes like Wicked can no longer be seen as a sure thing. (And, I mean, it's an adaptation of half a musical that was itself adapted from a book.) But the box office still drives Hollywood, so I think only one of the smaller films breaks through. Let's go with Nickel Boys, which seems to have more momentum, for now, but I wouldn't be surprised by any combination of those three films, or even I'm Still Here sneaking in.

Wishful thinking: Justin Kuritzkes – Queer, Nico Lathouris and George Miller – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist^

Sean Baker – Anora

Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Justin Kuritzkes – Challengers

---
Other contenders: 

Mike Leigh – Hard Truths*

Tim Fehlbaum and Moritz S. Binder – September 5*

Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine Is Light*

If this is the actual field, I'd be incredibly happy—these are all among my favorite movies of the year. I've long been a fan of Sean Baker, who should finally get his first nomination (still can't believe he wasn't nominated for *anything* for The Florida Project). Faraget wasn't new to me—I quite liked Revenge, but The Substance was a massive level up. I'm obviously more familiar with Eisenberg's work as an actor, but A Real Pain is excellent and he has a promising career ahead of him as a writer/director. The Brutalist is a massive achievement, but comparatively less due to its script, although it would make a fine winner. Those four seem like locks, and the fifth nominee could be any of the other four listed (or something cool I don't even know about). I'm going more with my heart than my head in Challengers (probably the best movie of 2024 of those I've seen so far), but it has a real shot and I just don't know which of the other contenders has the best shot, having not seen any of them. Preparing to be minorly disappointed if Challengers misses out, but I'm sure the others are all great.

Wishful thinking: Jeremy Saulnier – Rebel Ridge, Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez*^

Ariana Grande – Wicked

Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl*

---

Other contenders: 

Margaret Qualley – The Substance

Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown

Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez*

If you read the tea leaves (i.e., follow the precursor awards and read Oscar blogs), you can usually predict 4/5 nominees in these major categories pretty reliably. That's why I'm always saying something like "Pretty confident in the top four" or "The top four seem like locks." I say this now because, yeah, the top four seem like very likely nominees. Saldana basically already has this award won, Grande has been nominated for just about every precursor you could think of, Rossellini and is a beloved veteran "due" for her first nomination (even though she's in the movie for about 5 minutes total), and Jones is a previous nominee in the Best Picture frontrunner. If my logic is right (it may not be!), that leaves one nomination left between what is looking more and more like Curtis and Qualley. Curtis is probably one of the worst recent acting award winners but she's very well liked, while Qualley is a rising star whose movie seems to be surging of late. I'll be rooting for Qualley but I have a feeling it'll be Curtis snagging the nom instead.

Wishful thinking: Brigette Lundy-Paine – I Saw the TV Glow, Adria Arjona – Hit Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain^

Yura Borisov – Anora

Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown

Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice*

---

Other contenders: 

Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing*

Stanley Tucci – Conclave

Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

Of all the categories so far, I feel most confident in this one. Like Saldaña, Culkin has this category all but in the bag for his first major role after Succession. (He's fantastic.) The relatively unknown Borisov is a key cog in what makes Anora work and should snag a nom. Pearce delivers a perhaps career-best performance in The Brutalist and should secure his first-ever nomination. Norton was my favorite part of the just-okay Unknown and should pick up his fourth-ever nom. Joining those four should be Strong, like Culkin for his first major post-Succession role, although his Trump-centric film might be a tough sell as he does his best to burn our country down here in 2025. If anyone were to play spoiler, it would likely be Maclin, who was partially the real-life inspiration for his film. Tucci and Washington both once seemed like surefire nominees but seem more like also-rans now.

Wishful thinking: Chris Hemsworth - Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Casey Affleck – The Instigators

BEST ACTRESS

Demi Moore – The Substance^

Mikey Madison – Anora

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pérez*

Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths*

---

Other contenders: 

Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here*

Angelina Jolie – Maria*

Nicole Kidman – Babygirl*

Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl*

Say it with me: four "locks" and a "who knows?" The statue appears to be Moore's to lose at this point after her showstopping acceptance speech at the Golden Globes—which is just insane given that she's in one of the gnarliest horror movies of the year. (She'd be totally deserving.) Once upon a time Madison was anointed as the future winner, but she'd be a worthy runner up—and someone who may return someday. Erivo is deserving of a nomination even if I didn't care for her movie (decidedly NOT a musical fan). I also don't hear good things about Emilia Pérez, but it's looking like I'll get to find out for myself. Joy. The final nomination is seemingly coming down to Jean-Baptiste or Torres, as megastars Jolie and Kidman have fallen by the wayside. This is a true coinflip, but I'm going with Jean-Baptiste, whose performance is supposedly a knockout in a movie that is likely more widely seen.

Wishful thinking: Zendeya – Challengers, Willa Fitzgerald – Strange Darling

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist^

Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing*

Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice*

---

Other contenders: 

Daniel Craig – Queer

Hugh Grant – Heretic*

Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

This category is remarkably similar to Best Actress—clear frontrunner, three other near-locks, tough call for the fifth spot, some big names as also-rans. Here, we have Brody looking like a good bet for his second Oscar—and first nomination since that win in 2003. Chalamet's Bob Dylan impression (he's much better as a singer than an actor in the role) will be battling with Fiennes scheming cardinal (he's great) and Colman's acclaimed turn for second place. That would seem to leave one spot for either Stan or Craig (it would be great to see Grant nominated for another horror movie and Eisenberg is quite good, but neither seem to have much of a shot). I've only seen Craig's film, and he's excellent in it, but neither he nor the film seem to have much buzz, whereas I've been hearing a lot about Stan and his movie (for probably obvious reasons). So I'll go with him over Craig for that final spot—and he's more than deserving, from what I hear. I may have to see for myself soon.

Wishful thinking: David Dastmalchian – Late Night with the Devil, Aaron Pierre – Rebel Ridge

BEST DIRECTOR

Brady Corbet – The Brutalist^

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez*

Sean Baker – Anora

Edward Berger – Conclave

Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

---

Other contenders: 

James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light*

Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two

Jon M. Chu – Wicked

This has become the toughest major category to predict, as the director's branch has a penchant for going a bit wild card, especially with international nominees. I've got three of them in the field—Audiard, who is almost assured a nomination; Berger, who seems safe for his next project after the well-regarded All Quiet on the Western Front remake; and Fargeat, who figures to be in a battle with Mangold for the fifth slot. Two other Americans, frontrunner Corbet and Baker, seem like locks. (Corbet would get my vote here, but I'd vote for Baker over him in Original Screenplay.) Fargeat vs. Mangold almost seems like a referendum of new Academy vs. old Academy. I have Fargeat and new Academy winning that battle, but the old Academy still surprises me sometimes (Curtis's Best Supporting Actress win a couple years ago comes to mind.) That said, true out-of-left-field nominees are always possible here, so keep an eye on Kapadia.

Wishful thinking: Luca Guadagnino – Challengers/Queer, Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow

BEST PICTURE

The Brutalist^

Conclave

Emilia Pérez*

Anora

Wicked

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

The Substance

A Real Pain

Sing Sing*

---

Other contenders: 

Nickel Boys*

All We Imagine as Light*

September 5*

Last year I actually got all 10 predicted nominees correct. I'm not expecting to repeat that, but I feel pretty good about the first nine here, with everything through Dune more or less a lock, and The Substance and A Real Pain are looking really good, too. Those would make a decent field, although like I said above not quite as strong as last year's, which had really only Maestro as a quasi–weak link. Frontrunner Brutalist, Anora, Substance, and Dune are all varying degrees of great, while Conclave and Pain are both very good themselves. Unknown was merely fine. I did not care for Wicked and am not holding out any hope I'll like Pérez. Fairly solid overall; there have definitely been worse Best Picture slates (I'm looking at you, 2021). Oh, and I haven't forgotten about the tenth nominee, which seems to be between Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. I obviously haven't seen either (hear good things!) and it seems to be a true toss-up. Going with Sing Sing due to seeing it on more predictions lists. I'm sure I'll wind up seeing both to be able to say which is actually more deserving.

Wishful thinking: Challengers, Queer, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Rebel Ridge

It's just after 10:00 p.m. here in Arizona, which is quite early for this post—it's usually not done until after midnight. Progress! Tomorrow morning, I'll mainly be rooting for Challengers to get nominated for anything (it seems to have a great shot in Best Score). My true #1 of last year, The Beekeeper, will obviously be rudely shut out. I'll write more about those two and more in my annual Fake Oscars in the next few weeks. For now, my number to beat from last year is 40/45, which I doubt happens. I'll be happy with 38/45 or so. We'll find out in eight hours or so! Thanks for reading in the meantime.

Can You Oppenheimer? (Sung to the Tune of Creed's "Higher"): My 2023 Oscars Predictions

It's that time once again: time to crack a brewski beer or two or three the night before the Oscars and crank out my usual predix. (Ed. Four brewski beers. It wound up being four brewski beers.) This is something like my 15th year writing up my Oscar predictions. I started on this blog in 2010, and I know I did them for at least a year before that in the form of a Facebook note (which I think have disappeared into the ether). I usually do fairly well, but I don't think I've gotten much better at these predictions over the years. I still usually go with my heart over my head for a pick or two, which invariably costs me if I'm in an Oscar pool. I'm pretty sure Kerry Condon and My Year of Dicks were those picks last year.

Speaking of last year, there wasn't a ton of, ahem, drama, as Everything Everywhere All at Once was the big winner, as widely predicted. Its haul included the only real surprise of the major categories, Jamie Lee Curtis for Best Supporting Actress. I thought and still think she was the clear-cut worst choice of the nominees, but a year later I can't say I'm still terribly mad about it. (Which isn't always the case. I'm still SUPER salty about The King's Speech over The Social Network, and Tom Hooper over David Fincher, in 2011.) Overall, I went 18/23 with just the one major category miss and a few random down-ballot ones.

I'm hoping to equal or better that this year, in what looks to be another ceremony devoid of major drama. Six of the eight major categories seem all but sewn up, with a whiff of uncertainly around Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Actress being a bit more uncertain than that. This year's EEAAO looks to be Oppenheimer, which should win several of the top prizes and even more in the technical categories. So let's see just how "higher" Oppenheimer will go, shall we?

Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Let's start with the easiest category to handicap, bar none. Da'Vine Joy Randolph has won just about every precursor you could think of, and she will win her first Oscar for her wonderful performance in The Holdovers. I can't even imagine who would be her closest competition—maybe Blunt or Brooks? Both are good but definitely not Oscar worthy. Ditto Ferrera; I still can't fathom why she was nominated. She delivered the big Barbie monologue, sure, but there's nothing technically meritorious about her acting in the least. My second-favorite performance of the bunch behind Randolph is probably Foster, who's tender and witty opposite Annette Bening in the better-than-expected (to me) Nyad.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Randolph, 2) Foster, 3) Blunt, 4) Brooks, 5) Ferrera

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

Here's another basically completely locked-in category: Robert Downey Jr. will win his first Oscar in his third attempt. He's... good in Oppenheimer, don't get me wrong, but I suspect this win is more of a tip of the cap to his career (including and especially the bajillion dollars he made for the industry as Iron Man, the first MCU superhero). He'd be near the bottom of my ranking of these five—Gosling had one of the best comedic performances of the decade, Brown just *owns* the screen whenever he's on it, and De Niro delivers his (easily) best late-career performance. I thought Ruffalo was also good but his performance (character, really) lacks range; I would have preferred that Willem Dafoe got the Poor Things nomination.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Gosling, 2) Brown, 3) De Niro, 4) Downey Jr., 5) Ruffalo

Best Actress
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things

If anything interesting/unexpected/memorable were to happen in one of the major categories, it would be here. If anyone is considered the frontrunner, it's Lily Gladstone—who I am also predicting as the winner, to be clear. She won the two precursors that matter most (Golden Globes – Drama and the SAG, plus numerous others) and has captivated audiences with her speeches where she's won. But you can't count out Stone (a previous winner who captured the Golden Globes – Comedy, BAFTA, and Critic's Choice) and Hüller, who seems to be the dark horse in the race. (Bening and Mulligan are also-rans both seeking their first Oscar.) I think Stone's previous win actually hurts her here a bit, and I doubt the Academy really goes for Hüller (who I thought had the best performance; although I'd still vote for Gladstone), so I'm sticking with Gladstone, who would seem to be the easy choice both on merit and for narrative reasons (first-ever Native winner here).

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Gladstone, 2) Hüller, 3) Stone, 4) Bening, 5) Mulligan

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

That makes three out of four of the acting categories with overwhelming favorites: Cillian Murphy should take this one with ease. He'd be another first-time winner and very deservingly so—he's incredible as Robert J. Oppenheimer. You can't *quite* write off Giamatti yet—at one point he looked like the frontrunner and is incredibly well-liked and respected. Same with Wright, who will hopefully be back at some point since he has no shot this year. Cooper is another past nominee and a likely future winner, while respected Broadway actor Domingo is just happy to be here. Both were Just Fine in awards-baity biopics.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Murphy, 2) Giamatti, 3) Wright, 4) Cooper, 5) Domingo

Best Adapted Screenplay
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach – Barbie
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Cord Jefferson – American Fiction
Tony McNamara – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

I'm not quite sure how predicted winner Cord Jefferson became the frontrunner for American Fiction, but here we are. I don't think any of these are flawless scripts, but I don't see Fiction's as appreciably better than Barbie's (still probably the best of the bunch) or Oppenheimer's (the only major category it doesn't figure to win where it's nominated). Don't get me wrong, it's a good script—very funny with some touching moments, even if the satire isn't always razor sharp and it struggles to juggle the two main plotlines from time to time—but I wouldn't at all count out an "upset" from the more established Nolan or, especially, Gerwig/Baumbach (the one I'll be rooting for). McNamara would make a worthy winner for the beguiling Poor Things, while I'm not sure I see Glazer's script as nomination-worthy (the strengths of Zone are almost overwhelmingly technical).

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Gerwig and Baumbach, 2) McNamara, 3) Nolan, 4) Jefferson, 5) Glazer

Best Original Screenplay
Samy Burch – May December
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer – Maestro
David Hemingson – The Holdovers
Celine Song – Past Lives
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari – Anatomy of a Fall

The frontrunner and predicted winner here makes more sense to me—Justine Triet and Arthur Harari should be taking home the Oscar for the sensational writing of Anatomy of a Fall. I think it's the best script of any kind this past year, one that I haven't been able to stop thinking about since I saw the film a couple weeks ago. Their closest competition here is likely Hemingson (recent plagiarism mini-controversy notwithstanding) or Song, who is probably my second choice here. (I also have been thinking about Past Lives a bunch since watching it.) As far as the other two nominees go, I actually thought Todd Haynes's direction elevated a vexing script from Burch, and Cooper sure can do it all, including (co-)writing a fairly formulaic biopic script.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Triet and Harari, 2) Song, 3) Hemingson, 4) Burch, 5) Cooper and Singer

Best Director
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall

It took the Academy long enough to figure it out (he's been Oscar-worthy as a director as far back as 2006's The Prestige), but Christopher Nolan will take home his first Oscar as well for the monumental Oppenheimer. An upset isn't going to happen, but it if did, Lanthimos is the most likely culprit—he's very well regarded and it seems only a matter of time before he picks up his first statue. For whatever reason, Killers just didn't seem to resonate with awards voters outside of Gladstone's performance—which is a shame, because Marty Scores delivered another late-career near-masterpiece. Both Glazer and Triet are more than nomination-worthy—especially Glazer, who continues to be one of the most singular and innovative arthouse auteurs working these days. Read up on the making of Zone if you haven't. This is a super strong field, although I do wish they had found room for Greta Gerwig.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Nolan, 2) Scorsese, 3) Glazer, 4) Lanthimos, 5) Triet

Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

To answer the question posited in this blog post's amazing title, yes, you can definitely Oppenheimer. You can take Oppenheimer to a place with golden statues. This is the easiest-to-predict Best Picture race since... well, since last year. It's absolutely deserving of the Academy's top award—a critical and commercial juggernaut with an absolute buffet of a cast and technical merits up the wazoo. (I been drinkin', okay?) It's not hard to see how the Academy has coalesced around this as their top choice. Personally, I slightly prefer Killers of the Flower Moon, but I will absolutely be fine with a Best Picture win for ol' Oppy.

When writing up this category, I usually wax poetic a bit about What It Means for a movie to win Best Picture. In the most interesting years, there is usually something At Stake in this race. Some stakes are bigger than others, of course—Parasite over 1917/Jojo Rabbit and Green Book over Roma were major stakes (one for the good guys, one for the bad guys), while EEAAO over the field last year was much smaller stakes (a big win for genre fans and representation).

But some years don't really have any stakes. Neither 2020 (Nomadland) or 2021 (CODA) really had much at stake. This year feels a lot like those years—Oppenheimer taking the top prize wouldn't seem to signify anything of especial import in The Discourse. It's a well-made, well-liked movie that has a lot of across-the-board support behind it. But I do think it will be remembered better than the likes of Nomadland or CODA—and not only because it made over 20x the box office of those two combined. It's the rare film that resonated strongly with critics, the filmmaking industry at large, and the general moviegoing populace. (Along with Barbie, of course, Oppy's partner in the year of Barbenheimer.)

And I think this year's Best Picture crop will go down as one of the best of the past 10-15 years—it's up there with 2019 (Parasite) and 2016 (Moonlight), and maybe better top to bottom. As former A.V. Club (R.I.P.) chief film critic A.A. Dowd said, "Every single one of the Best Picture contenders feels like it belongs." It has everything from box office titans to midbudget adult comedies and dramas to major works from auteurs to the kind of prestige fare you'd expect in any given Best Picture field. It finally feels like the ever-growing and -diversifying Academy is starting to better reflect the trends and movies that capture the zeitgeist in real time, instead of the several-year delay they sometimes seem to be on. I'm sure AMPAS will prove me wrong next year, but for now, I'll choose to believe the Academy is finally on the right track for good, that's we're finally in a place where blind men see. (Gotta carry through the Creed theme!)

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Killers of the Flower Moon, 2) Oppenheimer, 3) Anatomy of a Fall, 4) Poor Things, 5) Barbie, 6) Past Lives, 7) The Holdovers, 8) American Fiction, 9) The Zone of Interest, 10) Maestro

Now it's time for LIGHTNING ROUND for the rest of the categories.

Best International Feature Film
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) – directed by Jonathan Glazer
There are very few certainties when it comes to the Oscars, but one is absolutely that the only film nominated for Best Picture in the international/foreign category will win the latter.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Zone of Interest (the only nominee I have seen)

Best Animated Feature Film
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse  – directed by Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and David Callaham
Don't discount The Boy and the Heron (which I sadly wasn't able to see before Oscar Sunday), but the second Spider-Verse installment was just as thrilling and visually marvelous as the first one.
My Non-Existent Vote: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (the only nominee I have seen)

Best Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol – directed by Mstyslav Chernov
So says the internets; as usual, I haven't seen any of the nominated film because I'm a bad White Person. But this one seems pretty timely, so let's go with it.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Cinematography
Hoyte van Hoytema – Oppenheimer
Strap in: It's Oppenheimer country from here on out. This'll be the first Oscar for the rapidly ascending van Hoytema, who has worked with with the likes of Peele, Gray, and Jonze in addition to Nolan.
My Non-Existent Vote: Rodrigo Prieto – Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Editing
Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer
Another surefire Oppy win. Anytime you beat the GOAT (Thelma Schoonmaker), it's an extraordinary achievement. This is a helluva strong field, too, so this'll be well deserved.
My Non-Existent Vote: Lame

Best Original Score
Ludwig Göransson – Oppenheimer
The man who produced Camp will win his second Oscar (after Black Panther). Ain't nothing wrong with that, even though Robbie Robertson's work was far superior. (R.I.P.)
My Non-Existent Vote: Robbie Robertson – Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song
"What Was I Made For?" – Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell (from Barbie)
Right movie, wrong song. I find this ballad a little boring (but nothing Eilish and her brother have ever done has resonated much with me). "I'm Just Ken" should be #Kenough. Also, poor Diane Warren.
My Non-Existent Vote: "I'm Just Ken"

Best Sound
Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, and Kevin O'Connell – Oppenheimer
O'Connell was once 0-20 in Oscar nominations; with a win, he would be 2-0 in his last two ceremonies after winning for (apparently) Hacksaw Ridge in 2016. But watch out for The Zone of Interest.
My Non-Existent Vote: Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn – The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects
Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima – Godzilla Minus One
Consensus seems to have shifted from The Creator (very good but perhaps too... polished to win here?) to Godzilla, which gets no complaints from me. The best Godzilla movie ever?
My Non-Existent Vote: Yamazaki, Shibuya, Takahashi, and Nojima

Best Production Design
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer – Barbie
Predicting a minor upset here for Barbie over Poor Things. Both would be worthy, but Barbie was the bigger movie and Greenwood is overdue for her first statue.
My Non-Existent Vote: Greenwood and Spencer

Best Costume Design
Holly Waddington – Poor Things
Often, this category is more like "Most" costume design, especially in a year without a no-doubt historical drama nominee (which is not Napoleon). It'll be this or Barbie for sure (also very worthy).
My Non-Existent Vote: Waddington

Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell – Maestro
Poor Things is absolutely a contender here, but AMPAS isn't really gonna let Maestro go 0-for-7, is it? It's a prestige biopic with several characters aging and, honestly, the nose plays.
My Non-Existent Vote: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston – Poor Things

Best Live Action Short
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar – directed by Wes Anderson
The shorts are notoriously tough to predict and you can make a case for either The After or Red, White and Blue, but this would be Wes Anderson's first Oscar, so it feels like the right call.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best Animated Short
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko – directed by Dave Mullins
This is utterly trite but that's NEVER stopped a short from winning here before. The impressionistic post-Holocaust Letter to a Pig is a possibility, but the death row short Ninety-Five Senses is the best.
My Non-Existent Vote: Ninety-Five Senses – directed by Jared and Jerusha Hess

Best Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning – directed by Sheila Nevins, Trish Adlesic, and Nazenet Habtezghi
It seems to be between this and The Last Repair shop. I'll sadly never know which one is better because no one has paid me the hundreds of dollars it would take for me to actually watch these.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Wow, that got boozy toward the end. Just like when watching the Oscars telecast itself. I'm looking forward to watching tonight with several good friends dressed up in our Sunday best. I'll be hoping Lily Gladstone pulls through in Best Actress and rooting for upsets in Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. But mostly I'm just glad to be able to watch a great crop of films get rewarded. Not really many bad choices possible tonight! And Oppenheimer sweep and, say, 18 or 19 out of 23 and I'll be golden.