So are we getting the Oscars in late March every year now? If so, that's fine with me—gives me more time to get caught up with the awards contenders, many of which don't come to Phoenix until after the New Year anyway. That said, the number of awards contenders on streaming platforms is ever increasing, and I haven't gotten around to seeing several of them because, well, because they're just not that high on my personal list. I'm never in a rush to see awards-baity fare like King Richard and Being the Ricardos (even though I generally love Will Smith and Aaron Sorkin), nor Sundace-y indies like CODA. Unless they're nominated for an Oscar, that is. I might get around to them otherwise eventually, but they're never at the top of my list. Then there are the musicals like West Side Story and Tick, Tick... Boom!, which I'd prefer to avoid altogether. I always have a shortlist of films I hope don't get nominated that I celebrate almost as much as the films I actually do like getting nominated. (I'm probably screwed on both of those films this year, though.) Anyway, here's my crack at predicting the nominees for this year's field, the year after last year's kind of ho-hum Nomadland win. Nominees are listed in assumed order of likelihood.
^ = early winner prediction
* = haven't seen it
* = haven't seen it
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog^
Sian Heder – CODA*
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth, and Jon Spaihts – Dune
Ryusuke Hamaguchi and and Takamasa Oe – Drive My Car*
---
Other contenders:
Tony Kushner – West Side Story*
Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan – Nightmare Alley
One category in, and it's a toughie. Campion and Heder seem incredibly safe, but the next four seem very tightly packed. I can see any of them missing out—this is Gyllenhaal's first written feature, blockbusters like Dune don't always do well in artistic categories, Drive My Car is a three-hour Japanese film, and West Side Story didn't do well at the box office. (I haven't seen Drive My Car yet myself, but I'm a huge Murakami fan so it's high on my list.) It's easiest to imagine Drive My Car missing out, but I think it might sneak in this year given the Academy's ever-diversifying voting body. I have the underperforming and -seen West Side Story barely missing the field—although it making it over Dune wouldn't shock me. If there were a true surprise, it would most likely come from Coen or del Toro/Morgan—not exactly surprising names, though.
Wishful thinking: Guy Ritchie, Marn Davies, and Ivan Atkinson – Wrath of Man, Chris McKenna and Erik Sommers – Spider-Man: No Way Home
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast^
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Zach Baylin – King Richard*
Adam McKay and David Sirota – Don’t Look Up
Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos*
---
Other contenders:
Pedro Almodóvar – Parallel Mothers*
Mike Mills – C'mon, C'mon
Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
I'm hoping for some chaos here—this isn't a strong group of potential nominees. Belfast is charming but trite, Licorice Pizza doesn't really work for me (easily PTA's weakest script), and Don't Look Up's flaws are well documented. King Richard seems like a typical biopic, and even as a Sorkin fan I can't imagine Ricardos is his finest work. I could easily imagine either McKay/Sirota or Sorkin missing out (many seem to be tiring of them in general), but I don't know if I really see Almodóvar or Mills having the votes to secure a nomination. (I'm an avowed fan of both and would be thrilled. C'mon, C'mon is wonderful and I can't wait to see Mothers.) I think the WGA field sans Dispatch (meh—I'm also getting tired of Wes Anderson) in favor of the WGA-ineligible Belfast is the safest call. But I really think/hope Almodóvar or Mills sneaks in.
Wishful thinking: Sean Baker – Red Rocket, Anders Thomas Jensen – Riders of Justice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story^*
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Caitriona Balfe – Belfast
Ruth Negga – Passing*
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard*
---
Other contenders:
Ann Dowd – Mass*
Judi Dench – Belfast
Marlee Matlin – CODA*
Rita Moreno – West Side Story*
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Have to cover a lot of bases here just because I have yet to see so many of these films. There seems to be a lot of consensus around the top five here, which is the WGA field minus Blanchett plus Ellis. But I'm seeing enough mentions of everyone in the "other contenders" area that I'm sure there will be a surprise. But it'll be at the expense of Negga or Ellis—the top three seem pretty safe. Having not seen the majority of these films, I can't add much, but Balfe would get my vote of the nominees I've seen. Dunst was quite good and is deserving of a nomination, as would be the tastefully named Buckley. I liked Nightmare Alley a good deal and Blanchett was good in it, but I'm not sure I saw it as awards-worthy. The WGA disagreed, but the Academy seems likely to deny her her eighth nomination. I'm thinking I'll hit 4/5 here.
Wishful thinking: Gaby Hoffmann – C'mon, C'mon, Rebecca Ferguson – Dune
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog^
Troy Kotsur – CODA*
Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
Jared Leto – House of Gucci*
---
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Mike Faist – West Side Story*
Jamie Dornan – Belfast
I'm the most confident in this field of five of the categories thus far. Don't see room for much in the way of surprises here. Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds seem like locks, and Cooper and Leto aren't too far behind. That said, I just don't see it with Cooper here—he's in the movie for like 10 minutes and is utterly inconsequential. He's not even the most memorable cameo! Gimme Sean Penn or, especially, Tom Waits over Cooper if we're nominating bit players from Licorice Pizza. I haven't seen Gucci, but I'm not a Leto fan, so I can't say I'd be disappointed to see him passed over. Plemons has been better, but he'd be a worthy enough replacement. Dornan was... fine. Haven't seen the musical. This is another mediocre group of nominees, but Smit-McPhee had a definite magnetism in Campion's film and I would have no complaints were he to win.
Wishful thinking: Ed Harris – The Lost Daughter, Luke Kirby – No Man of God
BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter^
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci*
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos*
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye*
Jennifer Hudson – Respect*
---
Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers*
Kristen Stewart – Spencer*
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
So I've seen basically none of these films. I've seen Colman's film and she's more than deserving of a second Oscar. I'd be fine with a nomination for Haim, even though I don't *love* her movie. As for the rest... fuck it, I'm just going with the SAG nominees. That's a pretty impressive group of resumes. Kidman is one of the greatest actresses of all time, Hudson is a former winner, and Gaga and Chastain are former nominees. Cruz—another former winner—could surprise, likely at the expense of Chastain or Hudson. (Please let it be Hudson—no desire to watch another biopic.) There was a time when Stewart might have been considered the frontrunner here, but thus far in her career she hasn't been able to turn critical praise into awards nominations. I can't say I'd be looking forward to watching her film, though—Jackie left me quite cold, and Spencer seems like more of the same. I'm generally a big fan of hers, though. Anyway, I don't expect much drama here. Cruz over Hudson wouldn't even really be a surprise.
Wishful thinking: Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Kate
BEST ACTOR
Will Smith – King Richard^*
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick... Boom!*
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos*
---
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage – Cyrano*
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Yep, going with the SAG nominees again. Just don't see any of the other nominees as having an especially strong case. Don't Look Up was FAR from Leo's best work, and I don't think many people have even seen Cyrano. I actually quite liked Cooper in Nightmare Alley, but I'm not sensing a big support base for that movie. As-is, the field looks fairly unimpressive—but of course, I haven't seen three of the top five. But none of them seem like my fare, especially since all three are performances based on real people, my least favorite kind of acting. Give me Denzel of this prospective field, I suppose, although his Macbeth is only perfunctorily very good—nothing transcendent. Would love a surprise nomination for Daniel Craig for his final turn as Bond, but momentum for that seems to have faded. Another yawner of a field.
Wishful thinking: Daniel Craig – No Time to Die, Joaquin Phoenix – C'mon, C'mon, Simon Rex – Red Rocket
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog^
Denis Villeneuve – Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car*
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
---
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story*
This is a notoriously tough field to predict—even in a year like this where there are six clear contenders for five spots. I think the only one that's a lock is Campion—I could see any of the others missing out. But I suspect the final spot comes down to one of Branagh, Hamaguchi, and Spielberg. You could easily go chalk here and copy the DGA nominees, which would leave Hamaguchi out, but he is the exact kind of seemingly left-field nominee the director's branch has nominated in recent years. So I think he makes it in over... Spielberg, I guess? There just doesn't seem to be much fervor for his West Side Story remake, although I hear it is powerfully directed. Branagh missing out wouldn't be a shock either. I'll be most curious to see this field on Tuesday morning. (Also, I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone not on this list winds up being nominated. Just no idea who.)
Wishful thinking: Guy Ritchie – Wrath of Man, Sean Baker – Red Rocket
BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog^
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
King Richard*
CODA*
West Side Story*
Don’t Look Up
Tick, Tick... Boom!*
---
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Being the Ricardos*
Drive My Car*
House of Gucci*
Nightmare Alley
History tells us there will either be eight or nine nominees—we haven't seen the full 10 since 2010. I'm pretty confident in the top seven, and there's a glut of films I haven't seen right around that point, so there's a lot of guesswork going on here. But Richard, CODA, and Story are all the kinds of usual suspects here, and then Look is topical and Boom is industry-friendly. But then Coen/Shakespeare is a formidable combo, as is the Sorkin/Kidman/Bardem trio. Those are definite possibilities. And Parasite won only two years ago, so you can't count out a film like Drive. Don't feel too confident in the chances of Gucci or Alley, but I could see them having broad support, so you can't eliminate them. But this is looking like a showdown between The Power of the Dog and Belfast on Oscar night, which... yawn. Wouldn't be mad about either, but neither seems likely to go down in history—a Spotlight/Shape of Water type winner, if you will. Meh. Give me a ballsy, brainy, swing-for-the-fences blockbuster like Dune over those two humdrum prestige pictures any day—but especially on Oscar Sunday.
Wishful thinking: Wrath of Man, Spider-Man: No Way Home, No Time to Die
Finished a day early this year! (This was mostly written on Sunday night.) This past year wasn't exactly a powerhouse year for cinema, but I look forward to watching all the films nominated for these eight major categories once again, which is something I've done for a decade now. I think the last major category Oscar nominee I haven't seen is Mike Leigh's Another Year (nominated for Best Original Screenplay in 2011). We'll see if I can top last year's 37/44. Excited for tomorrow morning!
