After my (somewhat limited) research for this post, one thing became clear about this year's slate of Oscar hopefuls: there's nary a turd to be found in this punch bowl. Most Best Picture fields have at least one shrugworthy piece of awards bait (see: Darkest Hour and the like), a formulaic biopic or two (Bohemian Rhapsody et al.), a movie no one has or will ever talk about again (Lion), and/or an overrated crowd-pleaser like CODA... which *checks notes* actually won last year. This year seems to be largely free of those awards-season archetypes. And thankfully there's nothing like Jojo Rabbit (the worst movie to be nominated for Best Picture since Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close) or Green Book (the worst Best Picture winner since Crash). The closest thing, for me, would be The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg's very well-received semi-autobiographical drama. It's... fine. While it didn't do it for me personally, I wouldn't complain too much if it won any of the major categories. So it seems like the ever-diversifying Academy has done a pretty good job this year. There is usually a handful of movies like the ones mentioned above that I hope don't get nominated so I don't have to watch them... but that doesn't seem to be the case this year. (Although keep in mind there are a few bigger movies like Elvis and The Whale that I have yet to see. There may yet turn out to be a turd or two after all.) Anyway, here's what I'm expecting tomorrow morning, with the nominees, as always, listed in presumed order of likelihood.
^ = early winner prediction
* = haven't seen it
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Sarah Polley – Women Talking^*
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living*
Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale*
Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, and Lesley Paterson – All Quiet on the Western Front*
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Other contenders:
Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said*
Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren – Top Gun: Maverick
Guillermo del Toro and Patrick McHale – Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio*
So yeah... I've only seen two of these projected top eight. Making this category even tougher to predict is that the WGA nominations aren't announced until the day after the Oscar nominees are announced. (Not sure I remember that happening in recent years.) All of which is to say this is mostly hearsay. I'm fairly confident in the top four: Polley seems to be the frontrunner at the moment, Ishiguro is very well regarded, The Whale is divisive but will certainly have its supporters, Johnson seems to be well liked and a repeat nomination for the Knives Out sequel seems like a good bet in a relatively weak year. That leaves the next four films vying for the final nomination. She Said is very topical and could be a way for the Academy to pat itself on the back, Maverick made a fuckton of money and snagged a BAFTA nom, and del Toro is a previous winner (albeit for Original Screenplay). But I'm going with the WWI movie, which seems to be trending toward several big nominations after leading the BAFTA field with 14 overall nominations. But nothing would surprise me tomorrow morning, and the eventual winner looks like one of the toughest calls of all the major categories right now.
Wishful thinking: Chris Fedak – Ambulance, James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silver – Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once^
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Todd Field – Tár
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness*
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Other contenders:
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun
This category is way more my speed. Adaptations generally don't do it for me (unless they're wildly inventive like, well, Adaptation). This looks to be a small field of contenders, and I've seen them all except Triangle of Sadness, which I plan on watching as soon as it's easily available for home viewing. (Missed it in theaters during a busy stretch of work.) Other than the aforementioned Fabelmans, all of the other potential nominees here are in my 2022 top 10. So this is a great field. Although it will likely just miss the field here, Wells's Aftersun knocked my socks off—just incredibly powerful. So, too, is Tár—Field's psychological epic might even be my favorite film of the year. But I think this category will come down to EEAAO and Banshees—two of the funniest, most touching films of the year. McDonagh is a two-time nominee here (for the phenomenal In Bruges and the not-so-much Three Billboards...), and Banshees would be a worthy winner. It has his trademark acerbic wit but is easily his most affecting work yet. But this award seems to be the Daniels' to lose at this point. I never would have thought it would be an awards frontrunner when I walked out of the theater after seeing it, but I'm so glad it is. It might be a feel-good crowd-pleaser, but it's my kind of feel-good crowd-pleaser (e.g., it has characters with hot dog fingers). Anyway, if there's one category I'm the most confident in the top five, it's this one. But if you want a true dark horse, let's go with The Menu (which I liked but didn't love).
Wishful thinking: Jordan Peele – Nope, Steven Soderbergh – Kimi
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever^
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau – The Whale*
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Other contenders:
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness*
Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The list of five nominees here is the exact same as the SAG field, and I'm not too confident that's what we'll be seeing here tomorrow morning. There have been several other names that have popped up in various precursor fields—De Leon at the Globes and BAFTAs, Carey Mulligan also at the BAFTAs, Monae at the Critics Choice—and it is sounding like many are seeing Williams's preferred category of Best Actress as category fraud. (It is, and, moreover, she's not actually that good in Fabelmans.) So there's a lot of uncertainty here. But that's mostly at the bottom of the list—the top three here seem pretty secure. Bassett has been racking up precursors, and Condon and, especially, Curtis are respected veterans due for their first nominations. That leaves—and I super don't love the optics here—the ebullient Hsu and the I-haven't-seen-her-movie Chau as the last two in the field. Williams—or De Leon, or Monae, or someone else—taking one of their spots wouldn't shock me in the slightest. The SAG field is what I'm predicting—and hoping for—though.
Wishful thinking: Eiza Gonzalez – Ambulance, Keke Palmer – Nope
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once^
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
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Other contenders:
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse*
This category can also be known as the "Please don't make me see an Eddie Redmayne movie" category. I didn't think much of The Fabelmans, obviously, but Dano was very good and Hirsch had a memorable scene it in (and that's literally it). I'll be hoping they're both nominated over Redmayne, whom I usually can't stand. But it looks like those three battling for the final two slots here. The top three seem secure—none moreso than Quan, who looks to be the closest thing to a major category lock we have right now. He's sensational in EEAAO and will be a more than worthy winner. His closest competition figures to be Gleeson, who is all but sure to be a first-time(!) nominee for his incredible work in Banshees. The unnervingly talented Keoghan seems a strong bet to round out a hopefully Redmayne-less field.
Wishful thinking: Steven Yeun – Nope, Brandon Perea – Nope
BEST ACTRESS
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once^
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Danielle Deadwyler – Till*
Viola Davis – The Woman King*
Ana de Armas – Blonde*
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Other contenders:
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie*
Am I just going with the SAG nominees again in this category? I... guess so? This is a tough field to prognosticate and I'm not at all confident. Outside of the top two, that is. This race will come down to Yeoh and Blanchett for two superlative performances. Yeoh seems to be the favorite as of now (perhaps partially due to voter fatigue for Blanchett?), but this figures to be an interesting race over the next few weeks. Beyond those two, I'm not sure what to expect, mostly because I haven't seen—or even heard much about—any of the other films. I've heard nothing about Till or To Leslie, and very mixed things about Blonde (although only good things about de Armas's performance). I *have* heard great things about The Woman King, but, like the other non-Fabelmans movies we're talking about, it might not be nominated in any other category, so it's difficult to gauge support. Speaking of The Fabelmans, I could easily see Michelle Williams winding up without a nomination because of the confusion surrounding her category placement. Could some kind of vote-splitting leave her without a nomination? Potentially, so I'm leaving her out for that reason and going with the rest of the SAG field. Watch out for Risenborough as a last-second wildcard, though.
Wishful thinking: Zoë Kravitz – Kimi, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave
BEST ACTOR
Brendan Fraser – The Whale^*
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler – Elvis*
Bill Nighy – Living*
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
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Other contenders:
Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
This is the SAG field minus one nominee—Adam Sandler for Hustle. He's great in a movie I quite liked, but he doesn't seem to be a serious contender for the Oscar. (But a nomination is coming at some point, to be sure.) I can't comment much further as I have only seen one of the SAG nominees—Farrell, who's just outstanding in a career-best performance. I haven't seen The Whale yet, but I reflexively resist performances that are heavily makeup-enhanced (put actually not intended). I'll try to keep an open mind when I see the movie. I'm not exactly looking forward to seeing Elvis (the trailer was godawful) but I've heard... interesting things about it and nothing but raves for Butler, so I'm mildly intrigued. I honestly don't even know what Living is, but I do love me some Nighy. As for the fifth nominee here, there's a very good chance it's relative newcomer Mescal and his jaw-dropping work in Aftersun. (It's going to be an incredibly close call between him and Farrell in my Fake Oscars.) Cruise is more than a dark horse here, though—he's one of the biggest movie stars of all time, his movie was universally praised, and he's very good in it. But not Oscar good, methinks. But if he does wind up making the field, I hope it's at the expense of Butler or Nighy. (If you want a true dark horse here, Sandler or even Tom Hanks could surprise.)
Wishful thinking: N. T. Rama Rao Jr. – RRR, Mark Rylance – The Outfit
BEST DIRECTOR
Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once^
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Todd Field – Tár
Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front*
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Other contenders:
James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
S.S.Rajamouli – RRR
In recent years, Best Director has been one of the toughest categories to predict, with names like Thomas Vinterberg, Paweł Pawlikowski, and something called a Benh Zeitlin coming out of seemingly nowhere to snag a nomination on Oscar Tuesday. Could this year's version be Rajamouli, who helmed the astounding Indian period-action epic RRR? I know people have been campaigning for it, and this category always surprises. His inclusion here will be one of the things I'm rooting for most in the morning. But I don't think it happens, as Berger fits the bill a bit more neatly as a veteran Euro director à la Vinterberg and Pawlikowski. We did have a South Korean director, Bong Joon-ho, break through a few years ago with Parasite, but I'm not sure the Academy is ready to embrace a Telugu director just yet. Other than that fifth slot, the rest of the field seems pretty secure—frontrunners the Daniels and their closest competition, the decorated Spielberg, plus McDonagh and Field for their very well-regarded films. Cameron looks to be on the outside looking in (although The Way of Water is amazing), and the fifth DGA nominee, Joseph Kosinski for Maverick, doesn't seem like a real threat here. But if there's any complete out-of-left-field surprise in the morning, it'll be in this category.
Wishful thinking: Michael Bay – Ambulance, Charlotte Wells – Aftersun
BEST PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All at Once^
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis*
All Quiet on the Western Front*
The Whale*
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
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Other contenders:
Babylon
Women Talking*
Triangle of Sadness*
The Woman King*
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
RRR
Aftersun
We get a full 10 nominees until the Academy decides to change the rules again, and things get pretty hazy toward the end here, hence all the "other contenders." The top seven feel pretty safe: EEAOO, Fabelmans, Banshees, and Tár have been ever-present at the major precursors; Maverick and Avatar are well-liked blockbusters the Academy won't ignore; and Elvis was a relatively big hit that should have support in the tech/craft categories. From there, I feel like Quiet gets in after such a strong showing at the BAFTAs, suggesting broad support. (I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong about that one, though.) The Whale seems like a good bet with the Best Actor frontrunner and a good bet at landing Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress nominations. So... one spot to go. I wouldn't be surprised at a groundswell of tech/craft support for the gonzo misfire Babylon, Women Talking could very well have a small base of fervent supporters, and the others listed all have a bona fide or two (pretty sure that's not how that term is used, but oh well). But I'm going with another blockbuster in Wakanda Forever, which has the Supporting Actress frontrunner as well as likely several tech/craft nominations forthcoming. But I'm expecting a surprise or two or three in this field—which is why Oscar Tuesday is one of my favorite days of the year.
Wishful thinking: Ambulance, Nope
Got it in just under the wire! (It's almost midnight here in AZ.) I got a not-great 37/45 last year, which I hope I can top by 1-2 this year. The things I'll be most rooting for include any nominations for Aftersun and RRR, minimal nominations for The Fabelmans, and no Eddie fucking Redmayne. Looking forward to filling in the gaps in these eight main categories for yet another year. Thanks for reading!
