Is it that time of the year already? Evidently it is—tomorrow is Oscar nomination morning, which I just remembered/found out about when I logged onto my computer this morning. And while I always monitor the various Oscar races throughout the year, I haven't done quite as much actual research as I'd have liked. What are you gonna do? What little research I have done will have to be #Kenough. (See what I did there?) But from what I have seen from that research and the last 8-10 months of movie watching, the overall crop of Oscar nominees is looking pretty solid (much like last year). The year of Barbenheimer was a dang good one for the movies, with the former the year's box office champ and the latter the current frontrunner for the big prize and a whole slew of others. Neither would be my personal pick for Best Picture, but they're also both due for a rewatch (perhaps back-to-back in theaters for the true experience). For now, let's try to guess what will be nominated alongside Barbenheimer in the morning. As always, the nominees are listed in presumed order of likelihood.
* = haven't seen it
^ = early winner prediction
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach – Barbie^
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Tony McNamara – Poor Things
Cord Jefferson – American Fiction
Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
---
Other contenders:
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest*
Andrew Haigh – All of Us Strangers*
Marcus Gardley – The Color Purple*
One category in and there's already controversy: by almost any definition, Barbie is an original screenplay. The "characters" existed previously, sure, inasmuch as dolls can be characters. But I said "almost" any definition because the Academy has ruled Barbie an adapted screenplay due to those preexisting characters, so it will likely win this slightly less prestigious category. The other half of Barbenheimer, Nolan's oddly structured, Sorkin-esque Oppenheimer, is another surefire nominee and may have been the winner here before Barbie's inclusion. I feel fairly confident about the other three—Jefferson's debut is hilarious and well regarded, Poor Things seems to have broad support and McNamara is a previous nominee, and many regard Killers as a masterpiece and Roth and Scorsese both have a slew of nominations—but this category has had some surprises in recent years and non-US movies have had good representation of late. So the inclusion of Glazer or Haigh wouldn't shock. But over whom? Perhaps Jefferson (not established) or Roth/Scorsese (runtime, POV questions)? I'm not predicting an "upset," but acknowledge the possibility.
Wishful thinking: Dave Callaham, Phil Lord, and Christopher Miller – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Takashi Yamazaki – Godzilla Minus One
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari – Anatomy of a Fall*^
David Hemingson – The Holdovers
Celine Song – Past Lives*
Samy Burch – May December
Emerald Fennell – Saltburn
---
Other contenders:
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer – Maestro
Alex Convery – Air
This one is a little trickier, with (I think) only Hemingson, Song, and Triet/Harari safe. Hemingson would make a worthy winner with Holdovers's richly drawn characters (even if the story itself is a little warmed over). He'll be a contender along with Song and Triet/Harari, whom I can't really comment on as I haven't seen their films. (Soon.) That leaves two spots. May December seems to be loved more by Film Twitter than awards show voting bodies thus far, while the opposite seems to be true of Saltburn. I liked both films even if neither really has a coherent central thesis (but I think May December thinks it does more than Saltburn, which is why I slightly prefer the latter. But both are better directed than written). I think Burch is slightly safer than previous winner Fennell, but it wouldn't surprise me if one or both missed out. If that were to happen, Cooper/Singer's mostly formulaic biopic or Convery's just-fine crowdpleaser would stand to benefit. But I suspect the race will come down to Holdovers and Anatomy.
Wishful thinking: Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw, Wes Anderson – Asteroid City, Danny Philippou and Bill Hinzman – Talk To Me
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers^
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
Jodie Foster – Nyad*
Julianne Moore – May December
---
Other contenders:
America Ferrera – Barbie
Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest*
Penelope Cruz – Ferrari
Presumptive winner Randolph (she's phenomenal—funny, heartbreaking, understated) and Blunt (one of my favorite actresses, but she's just fine except for the exceptional deposition scene) are locks, with (from what I understand) Brooks and Foster not far behind. I'm not over the moon about seeing either of their films (I don't like musicals and Nyad just kinda seems boring), but maybe one of them will surprise me. That leaves one spot and at least four contenders. A lot of folks are slotting Ferrera here due to her zeitgeist-capturing monologue and spendy campaign, but... I don't think her performance was anything special. It truly bewildered me to see her listed as an Oscar contender. But she very well could be nominated over the likes of two previous winners (Moore and Cruz) and the very buzzy Hüller (who could also be nominated for Best Actress for Anatomy). I prefer Moore's very actorly work in May December over the remaining possibilities, and I think many voters will as well. It's a very studied performance with some incredible line deliveries and a kind of floating lisp, but a fiery Cruz should never be underestimated (although I was a little let down by Ferrari, truth be told). I'm going to predict Moore as the fifth nominee for now and let the nominations fall as they may.
Wishful thinking: Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Cara Jade Myers – Killers of the Flower Moon, Scarlett Johansson – Asteroid City
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer^
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
---
Other contenders:
Willem Dafoe – Poor Things
Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers
Charles Melton – May December
Man oh man this is a LOADED category—and the presumptive winner is probably my least favorite performance of the bunch. RDJ is good, but his likely Oscar more feels like a career achievement award combined with being part of the Oppenheimer bandwagon. But he's a lock here along with Gosling (one of the best comedic performances of all time) and De Niro (just a chilling portrait of evil). I think someone from Poor Things will get nominated, and both Ruffalo and Dafoe would be worthy. Ruffalo has more screentime and less prosthetics, so I'll go with him. Then the fifth spot is just completely wide open. Brown, relative newcomer Melton, and actual newcomer Sessa give three of the best supporting performances of the year, and it's a shame they won't all be nominated. There seems to be a lot of support for The Holdovers, which could carry the sensational Sessa (wounded, angry, self-aware) to a nomination, and if there's more support than expected for May December, Melton could get nominated as the emotional core of the faux Mary Kay Letourneau retelling. But I'm thinking and hoping that the powerful (and powerfully funny) Brown will get his first nomination. There will be disappointment no matter what the result, but hopefully I can make up for that with my forthcoming Fake Oscars.
Wishful thinking: Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw, Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw, Jacob Elordi – Saltburn
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon^
Emma Stone – Poor Things
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Margot Robbie – Barbie
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
---
Other contenders:
Greta Lee – Past Lives*
Annette Bening – Nyad*
Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple*
This should be the field. Gladstone has been racking up precursors and just about everyone seems to be awaiting her Oscar speech for her emotive, empathetic, and fierce performance in Killers. In another year, Stone might've won for her audacious, unhinged work in Poor Things, and in another universe (where comedic performances are rightly recognized), Robbie would be a strong contender for turning a doll into a full-fledged and complex character, but they will both be nominated and bear their likely loss with grace. Stone already has a statue, which obviously doesn't hurt, and it's pretty clear that Robbie will before too long. Ditto Mulligan, who is at Amy Adams levels of "She's due"; her performance mostly did nothing for me in Maestro, but she's sure to be nominated. The only possible surprise would be Hüller, who's largely unfamiliar to America audiences, missing out. If that were to happen, Lee (at one point widely projected to be nominated) could sneak in, or else Bening (the Mulligan to Glenn Close's Adams) or even Barrino. But this is the category I feel most confident in right now.
Wishful thinking: Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Thomas McKenzie – Eileen
BEST ACTOR
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers^
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
---
Other contenders:
Colman Domingo – Rustin*
Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers*
This field looks like it could be pretty chalky, but I'm very primed for an upset here. The two (by far) frontrunners are safe: Giamatti, who looks primed for his first Oscar win in just his second nomination(!), and Murphy, who might look back and wonder what could have been if he should miss out on the statue after being the frontrunner for so long. But I think one of the three big names that come next could miss out. Wright is another long-respected actor looking for his first nomination (he's absolutely wonderful in Fiction), Cooper really threw himself into his role as Leonard Bernstein (he reportedly spent six years learning to conduct), and Leo... well, Leo is Leo. His performance isn't my favorite part of Killers, and he might be the most vulnerable of the presumed nominees. I've seen a ton of folks predicting a nomination for Domingo, so he'd be the most likely beneficiary should Leo (or Wright, or Cooper) miss out. I obviously haven't seen Rustin but reflexively dislike most biopics, while I'm actually very looking forward to Strangers, one I'll watch at some point even if it misses out on any major nominations.
Wishful thinking: Zac Efron – The Iron Claw, Jason Schwartzman – Asteroid City, Joaquin Phoenix – Beau Is Afraid/Napoleon
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer^
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest*
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers
---
Greta Gerwig – Barbie
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall*
This has become probably the toughest major category to pick. The director's branch operates on its own wavelength and that often results in some true curveballs here: think Ruben Östlund last year, Thomas Vinterberg in 2020, Paweł Pawlikowski in 2018, and the immortal Benh Zeitlin in 2012. I don't know if I see anything quite that unexpected happening this year, but I think only Nolan and (probably) Marty are truly safe. Lanthimos always does well here and should be a lock as well for the idiosyncratic and memorable Poor Things. After that... who the fuck knows. Glazer seems like the kind of pick the director's branch would go for, but I wonder if there are so many people predicting that precisely because of that. Barbie seems to big to fail with its billion dollar box office, but popcorn movies don't tend to do well here. Triet is absolutely a possibility, but I tend to think that voters will think a screenplay nomination is sufficient. Unless she's the curveball? But after Glazer, I'm going with the somewhat safe pick of Payne, whose film seems to have broad support and goodwill. Know one thing, though: there is a 0% chance I correctly picked all five nominees here. Maybe someone like Celine Song or Bradley Cooper swoops in out of nowhere?
Wishful thinking: Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw, Takashi Yamazaki – Godzilla Minus One
BEST PICTURE
Oppenheimer^
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Poor Things
Barbie
Maestro
American Fiction
Past Lives*
Anatomy of a Fall*
The Zone of Interest*
---
Other contenders:
The Color Purple
Saltburn
All of Us Strangers
These could be famous last words, but I'm not expecting many surprises in this category. Think 1-8 are pretty well set, with perhaps a bit of overlap potentially dooming one of either Anatomy or Zone—but both seem very well regarded. I could see The Color Purple sneaking in at the expense of one of those two, but that's the only mild upset I can really see. Saltburn seems too divisive and Strangers seems too small to make it into the field, but they're the only other fringe contenders I am really keeping my eye on. (*Maybe* Nyad or May December? But either seems like a stretch.) Other than that, this field seems fairly set with a good combination of critical successes (Killers, Holdovers, Poor Things, Fiction, Lives, Anatomy, Zone), critical AND box office successes (Oppenheimer, Barbie), and also Maestro. At the moment, my personal vote would go to Killers (the most powerful and best made of all the potential nominees), but I'm definitely going to rewatch Barbenheimer before I make a final judgment. That said, if trends hold and Oppenheimer takes the big prize, there will be absolutely no complaints from me.
Wishful thinking: The Iron Claw, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Godzilla Minus One
All right, it's just after midnight, so I'm calling it a night. Last year I went 38/45 (an improvement of one over the previous year), and I'm expecting a similar number this year. As usual, there will be at least one nomination that no one saw coming—I'd love it if The Iron Claw (easily my #1 of the year) got nominated for something big, but I don't think it'll happen. My main rooting interest is for me to have to watch as few musicals and biopics as possible. But looking forward to seeing what homework I have to do this year. Thanks for reading!
