Last year, I did just okay, with 37/44 correct predictions. I'm hoping to beat that number this year, but it could be tough given the ever-growing and -changing AMPAS voting body. But, as every year, I'll give it my best. As usual, all nominees are listed in order of perceived likelihood.
^ = early winner prediction
* = haven't seen it
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott – BlacKkKlansman^
Nicole Holofcener – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth – A Star Is Born
Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole – Black Panther
---
Next in line:
Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini – Leave No Trace
Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury and David Schneider – The Death of Stalin
Josh Singer – First Man
This is usually one of my least favorite categories, as it's generally rife with boring historical dramas and biopics. Not this year, with an eclectic group for AMPAS to choose from—and one that perfectly showcases the diversity of screenwriting talent out there. It's also a quite difficult category to project. I think the first two—Lee's alternately raucous and sobering agitprop and Holofcener's charming study of honor among misanthropes—are locks, but there are four incredibly deserving candidates for only three remaining spots. Jenkins likely still has a lot of leftover goodwill from Moonlight—and Beale Street is wonderfully written to boot, while A Star Is Born seems like Oscar catnip, so it could very well snag a nomination here despite the writing being somewhat of a weakness. I think that leaves the understated indie Leave No Trace to square off against box office titan Black Panther. I think Black Panther will follow in the footsteps of last year's Logan and snag a writing nomination—the first for an MCU movie. Still, it wouldn't shock me if Leave No Trace beat it out—or even Beale Street or Star—in the morning.
Wishful thinking: Oh Jung-mi and Lee Chang-dong – Burning, Phil Lord and Rodney Rothman – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma^
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly – Green Book
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara – The Favourite
Adam McKay – Vice
Paul Schrader – First Reformed
---
Next in line:
Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade
Paweł Pawlikowski, Janusz Głowacki, Piotr Borkowski – Cold War*
Anthony McCarten, Peter Morgan – Bohemian Rhapsody
You can count on the first three—Cuarón's masterpiece, Green Book's triteness, and The Favourite's delightful acerbity. Similar to Adapted above, that leaves three contenders for two spots. McKay's script for Vice, to me, didn't come close to duplicating the success of The Big Short, but it's the kind of thing the Academy usually gobbles up—plus it's smug as fuck. It gets the fart-smelling vote. (Which might make Green Book shart-smelling? Shart-snorting??) I think the final spot comes down to two polar opposites—Shrader's evocative and inscrutable First Reformed and Burnham's tender and affirming Eighth Grade. I think they both should be nominated—especially over Green Book and Vice—but the Academy will likely go with the familiar name in Schrader for the last spot. That said, there's generally a surprise here. Hopefully it's a good one (First Reformed *and* Eighth Grade over Vice) and not a bad one (Rhapsody over either).
Wishful thinking: Ari Aster – Hereditary, Rafael Casal and Daveed Diggs – Blindspotting, Boots Riley – Sorry to Bother You
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk^
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Amy Adams – Vice
Claire Foy – First Man
---
Next in line:
Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots*
Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place
Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased*
This category is a little more clear—King, Weisz, Stone, and Adams are almost assuredly in. King and Weisz were both fantastic in their films, giving two of the best performances in any film in 2018. I was a bit less enamored with Stone, although she was quite good, and, especially, Adams, who is usually one of my favorites. Maybe it was the hair? Or that I saw Vice not long after watching her vastly superior performance on Sharp Objects? Either way, she'll be there and will continue her Oscar-less streak for at least another year. The final spot is seemingly between Foy and Robbie. I haven't seen Robbie's movie, but Foy was outstanding in First Man and she's been fairly buzzy lately, so the timing seems right for a nomination (rather than another one for Robbie). Not expecting much of a surprise here, but we shall see.
Wishful thinking: Tilda Swinton – Suspiria, Andrea Riseborough – Mandy, Elizabeth Debicki – Widows, Cynthia Erivo – Bad Times at the El Royale, Haley Lu Richardson – Support the Girls
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Green Book^
Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
---
Next in line:
Sam Rockwell – Vice
Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
This is the one category where Green Book would be a deserving nominee—Ali is affecting and regal (although it's basically a lead performance). Wunderkind Chalamet is somewhat showy in the Oscar-baity Beautiful Boy, but it's still a good performance. Even better is Grant (my personal favorite of the bunch) as a drunken gay swindler in a movie I liked but didn't quite love. I don't think anyone watched BlacKkKlansman and thought, "Man, Adam Driver really made that movie," but he has a ton of momentum and seems to be in as of now, like the three names above him. That means this category mirrors Supporting Actress with two names left for one spot—beloved veteran Elliott and Rockwell, last year's winner in this category. While I think AMPAS probably likes Vice more than filmgoers or critics, I think sentimentality wins out and Elliott takes the last spot over the recently crowned Rockwell. The only potential spoiler seems to be Jordan. He's been close a few times—is this finally his year?
Wishful thinking: Gabriel Byrne – Hereditary, Alex Wolff – Hereditary, Steven Yeun – Burning
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close – The Wife^*
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
---
Next in line:
Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns^
Joanna Kulig – Cold War^
Viola Davis – Widows
I'm sensing a theme here—there are four locks (Close, Colman, Gaga, and McCarthy) and two names vying for the last spot (Aparicio and Blunt). I haven't seen Close's film, but I will—and there's a very good chance it's the only major-category nominee I haven't seen come tomorrow morning. The other three locks are all very deserving—Colman's prickly pathos, Gaga's raw emotive-ness, and McCarthy's wounded pride. (Colman is my favorite of the potential nominees, for what it's worth.) That leaves newcomer Aparicio, who manages to carry a Best Picture contender, and Blunt, who shockingly has never been nominated (even though she's only 36). I think AMPAS will pass over Blunt, who will almost definitely be back someday, for Aparicio, who likely will not—and who (I assume, not having seen Poppins) had the stronger performance. I'm prepared to be wrong on this one though.
Wishful thinking: Toni Collette – Hereditary, Thomasin McKenzie – Leave No Trace, Regina Hall – Support the Girls, Helena Howard – Madeline's Madeline
BEST ACTOR
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody^
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman
---
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity's Gate*
If the five I have listed above wind up being the nominees, it won't be a very impressive field. Malek and Bale do convincing (and prosthetic-aided) impressions in their movies, but those type of performances almost never sway me. (Gary Oldman's winning performance in this category definitely would not have gotten my vote.) Mortensen is certainly committed in Green Book, almost admirably so, but it's a problematic role in a schlocky movie. Cooper is... well, Cooper is pretty good and would probably get my vote of these five, but it's not a particularly memorable performance. Ditto Washington—he's a capable lead and has charisma to spare, but he doesn't quite have the same dramatic chops as his old man. (At least not yet.) But of all the films/performances I will be most hoping to see nominated tomorrow, number one is Ethan Hawke in First Reformed. His performance is several degrees of magnitude better than the other five—hell, it's probably one of the best of the decade. Him making the field would make up for a lot of other potential questionable nominations. And I haven't seen Dafoe's movie, but things are always better when he's involved.
Wishful thinking: Nicolas Cage – Mandy, Ben Foster – Leave No Trace
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma^
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Peter Farrelly – Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
---
Next in line:
Adam McKay – Vice
Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War*
Ryan Coogler – Black Panther
I really think these are the five nominees—which automatically makes me think there will be a surprise come morning. There have been several here in recent years—Martin McDonagh missing here last year, Lenny Abrahamson sneaking in for Room a few years ago, Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, whoever the Beasts of the Southern Wild guy was over Affleck for Argo... you get the idea. Who could it be this year? McKay, a previous winner wouldn't exactly count as a surprise, but Pawlikowski (respected European director) and Coogler (young box office sensation) fit the profile, but for very different reasons. If any of these three were to make it, they'd likely knock out Lanthimos, although he seems due to me, and I have a feeling his movie will do quite well tomorrow morning. The rest seem safe, even grossout comedy veteran Farrelly for his ham-handed work on Green Book. Cuarón and Lee are both masters, and Cooper knocked his debut out of the park. I have Cuarón in front for now, but I'm keeping my eye on a Lee upset—which would be his first Oscar, unbelievably.
Wishful thinking: Ari Aster – Hereditary, Luca Guadagnino – Susperia, Panos Cosmatos – Mandy, Lee Chang-dong – Burning, Paul Schrader – First Reformed
BEST PICTURE
Roma^
Green Book
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
---
First Man
A Quiet Place
Eighth Grade
Cold War*
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I'm pretty confident about the top seven here. Roma might not be the frontrunner right now (that's Green Book, unfortunately), but I think it's the eventual winner. Star and Klansman are the only other realistic contenders and probably shouldn't be dismissed just yet in case of a Spotlight-like upset. Favourite, Vice, and Rhapsody will all snag nominations in other major categories but will be also-rans for Picture. After those seven... man, I have no idea. If an MCU movie was ever going to get a Best Picture nomination, it would be Black Panther. It seems to have a lot of support, so it could very well be on the list in the morning. I think Beale Street will be on there as well given Moonlight's earlier success and the rave reviews. But I could also see First Man sneaking its way onto the ballot behind a lot of support from the technical categories despite its lack of impact in the major categories. There could also—and probably will be—a shocker. Horror hit A Quiet Place? Indie darling Eighth Grade? Foreign flick Cold War? Something really cool I don't even know about? But whatever surprise AMPAS has in store for us tomorrow, it won't be a contender. Whatever happens, let's just hope that Roma can overtake Green Book over the next month or so.
Wishful thinking: Hereditary, Suspiria, Mandy, Burning, First Reformed
As usual, I'm done with only hours to spare. So I'd better get some shuteye before one of my favorite mornings of the year. (Granted, I'm not a morning person, so there aren't that many good mornings, but you know what I mean.) Happy Oscar morning, y'all! Thanks for reading.
