Honestly, I don't know what to make of the Oscars after last year's travesty of a Green Book win. I thought the ever-diversifying Academy was well beyond that kind of reductive bullshit, especially after the Moonlight over La La Land triumph in 2017. Evidently not, and I have a harrowing feeling it's going to happen again with this year's turd in the punch bowl, Jojo Rabbit. The schlocky, too-cutesy Hitler Youth pseudo-satire has been racking up prestigious guild nominations left and right and has positioned itself as a legitimate Best Picture contender. Fortunately, there are a number of other outstanding contenders—the Best Picture race is wide open at this point. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite—two of my favorite films of the year—could easily snag the big prize, and The Irishman (like but not quite love for me) also has a good shot. Those four are probably the main contenders right now, but 1917 can't be counted out after its Golden Globes win. It should be an interesting next month before the ceremony on February 9th. For now, let's try to sort through the field for the major eight awards and see what is likely to be nominated on Oscar morning (tomorrow!).
Last year, I was correct on 37/44 predictions, and I'm not counting on doing much better this year, as several of the races are murkier than ever after the frontrunners. There could be more big surprises this year than usual—especially if some of the branches of the Academy try to make up for last year. As usual, all nominees below are listed in order of perceived likelihood.
^ = early winner prediction
* = haven't seen it
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig – Little Women^
Steven Zaillian – The Irishman
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver – Joker
Anthony McCarten – The Two Popes*
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Next in line:
Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Mario Correa and Matthew Michael Carnahan – Dark Waters
The first three are almost assured to be nominated, as they should be in the Best Picture field. Gerwig and Zaillian—a past nominee and winner, respectively—are quite deserving, while I did not at all care for Waititi's movie (obviously). Perhaps it was an improvement on the source material; I have no idea and am not particularly interested in finding out. Joker should also be among the Best Picture nominees, but comic book movies tend to not do well in the writing categories—and, indeed, the script is among the movie's weaknesses. But if it snags a Best Picture nom as seems likely, it's a safe bet to be nominated here as well. That leaves (likely) two nominees for the final spot (Dark Waters is a true, ahem, dark horse). I haven't seen Popes, and I found Neighborhood more trite than most seem to have. It's a true toss-up, but McCarten has multiple previous nominations, so let's go with him.
Wishful thinking: Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely – Avengers: Endgame (only half-serious; it was a weak year for adapted screenplays)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story^
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Rian Johnson – Knives Out
Lulu Wang – The Farewell*
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Next in line:
Pedro Almodóvar – Pain and Glory
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns – 1917*
Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, Katie Silberman – Booksmart
My thoughts here mirror the Adapted category above—confident about the first three, then three contenders for the final two spots. Baumbach's, Tarantino's, and Bong's scripts are all masterpieces in their own way. Parasite is my favorite script of the year (and probably in several years), but Baumbach and QT would be deserving winners as well. Johnson has somehow never been nominated for an Oscar. Although Knives Out was another "like didn't quite love" movie for me, I'm rooting for a nomination for his script—and it'd be well deserved. That leaves, seemingly, Wang vs. Almodóvar for the final nomination. I haven't seen The Farewell, but I've heard nothing but good things. Pain and Glory is one of my favorite films of the year, and Almodóvar is a past winner in this category. It's a tough call, but I have a feeling the Academy will go with new blood here. I'd be thrilled with a longshot Booksmart nomination, though.
Wishful thinking: Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, and Benny Safdie – Uncut Gems, Alex Ross Perry – Her Smell, Shia LeBeouf – Honey Boy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – Marriage Story^
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
Margot Robbie – Bombshell
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
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Next in line:
Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell*
Annette Bening – The Report
Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
I feel fairly confident this will be the field. At the very least, the first three are stone-cold locks. There was a time when Lopez was the presumed frontrunner, but that honor now goes to Dern, who is very likely the eventual winner. She's great, of course, but her role (not her performance, mind you) lacked impact for me. I'd much prefer Lopez or, especially, Pugh here. Lopez owned every second she was on the screen, and Pugh's arc in Little Women was marvelous. Robbie gave it her all with a very poorly written part (WTF was that lesbian subplot?!), and the less said about Johansson's role, the better. (And I honestly prefer her performance in Endgame.) I don't think there will be any surprises here, but Zhao seems to have the best shot at crashing the party. I can't really say more since I haven't seen the film. (I do intend to watch it though, even if it comes up empty-handed tomorrow morning.)
Wishful thinking: Cho Yeo-jeong – Parasite, Chang Yyae-jin – Parasite, Cecilia Roth – Pain and Glory
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Song Kang Ho – Parasite
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Next in line:
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes*
Alan Alda – Marriage Story
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse
I think—*think*—the top four are locks. Like Dern above, Pitt seems likely to win his first acting Oscar (he does have a statue for acting as a producer on 12 Years a Slave). There will be no complaints from me—he's fantastic in QT's latest. Scorsese regular Pesci and (somehow) first-time Scorsese collaborator Pacino should be shoo-ins for The Irishman. I prefer Pacino's performance over Pesci's, but in the unlikely event one of them misses out, it'll probably be Pacino. I can't think of a single scenario where Tom fucking Hanks playing Mister fucking Rogers doesn't get nominated for an Oscar, but Hanks hasn't been nominated since Cast Away—which includes an egregious snub for Captain Phillips—so who knows. I think—again, *think*—the final nomination will come down to Song and Hopkins. Hopkins is probably the smarter bet—he's Anthony fucking Hopkins playing, evidently, one pope—but Parasite is insanely buzzy right now, and Song Kang-ho is phenomenal in it. Here's hoping one of South Korea's—and the world's—finest actors is rightfully rewarded.
Wishful thinking: Asier Exteandia – Pain and Glory, Shia LeBeouf – Honey Boy, Bill Hader – It: Chapter 2
BEST ACTRESS
Renée Zellweger – Judy*^
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet*
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Next in line:
Awkwafina – The Farewell*
Lupita Nyong'o – Us
I'm a bit hazy on this category, having not seen several of the major contenders. One thing is all but certain, though—Zellweger will be taking home her second Oscar next month (and first in the Lead category). I'll have more to say when I see her film. Theron—whom I typically love but didn't really care for in Bombshell—and Johansson—who I'm generally ambivalent about but quite liked in Marriage Story—are her closest competition. It'll be their third and first nominations, respectively. It seems like it should be more for each, right? Ronan—who has very quickly built up an impressive resume—should snag her fourth nomination for a film I liked a lot more than I thought I would. That likely leaves Erivo, Awkwafina, and Nyong'o as contenders for the final slot. (Gee, three women of color...) Not having seen Harriet or The Farewell makes it somewhat difficult to forecast. I have seen Us, and Nyong'o is fantastic in it, but the buzz for it seems to have died down. I think an ascendant newcomer playing a revered historical figure is a safe bet, so I'll go with Erivo, but either of the other two leapfrogging her wouldn't surprise me at all.
Wishful thinking: Elizabeth Moss – Her Smell, Florence Pugh – Midsommar, Aisling Franciose – The Nightingale
BEST ACTOR
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker^
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Taron Egerton – Rocketman
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Next in line:
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes*
Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name
Robert De Niro – The Irishman
Like basically every other category, the first three should all be in. But it's a bloodbath for the final two spots here, with at least six possible contenders for the final spots. The other categories all have only 2-3 possibilities. Taking a bird's eye view of this field—unusually strong for Best Actor of late—we'll start with the obvious: Phoenix will win his first Oscar next month, becoming the second actor to win a statue for playing the Joker (R.I.P., Heath!). Driver will join the multi-nominations club and DiCaprio will pad his resume as well. Both are incredibly deserving—Driver is a powerhouse and Leo has a couple of my favorite scenes of the year. After those three... it's anyone's guess. Although, since this is my blog, I guess it's my guess? Crap. Let's eliminate a couple names first. De Niro seems to be lagging behind his costars, and for good reason—his is a steady performance, and it lacks the highlight reel scenes. Murphy could certainly snag a surprise nomination, but his buzz seems to have died down, and he does have a previous nomination, so his narrative is weakened. Perennial favorite Bale seems to have a good shot, but perhaps his perennial status will work against him? (He's very good but not Oscar good in a movie I really liked.) No idea what to say about Pryce since I haven't seen his movie, but the veteran has never been nominated and would seem to have a very good chance. But I'm going with Banderas—who has also never been nominated and is superlative in Almodóvar's film—and Egerton, who gets the standard biopic nomination. (He's fine in the movie.) I'm expecting chaos here, though.
Wishful thinking: Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems, Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse/High Life
BEST DIRECTOR
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Sam Mendes – 1917*
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
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Next in line:
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
Greta Gerwig – Little Women
Todd Phillips – Joker
Pedro Almodóvar – Pain and Glory
Like Supporting Actor, I feel pretty confident in the first four here. QT, Scorsese, and Mendes are all familiar names to varying degrees (although Mendes only has one previous nomination—surprising). They'll probably be duking it out for the statue at the ceremony. (Hopefully not literally.). Bong seems locked in as well, given the groundswell of love Parasite has been getting industry-wide. That leaves at least five contenders for that last nomination (another bloodbath here). Almodóvar is probably least likely, but, I mean, his movie is *about* a director, so he could be a vanity pick. (And his movie is sensational as well, which doesn't hurt.) It's tough to count out Phillips with a couple solid precursors (Globe and BAFTA), but voters might decide that a likely screenplay nod is enough. Gerwig is the lone female contender in what has been widely regarded as a strong year for female-helmed films. I hate the tokenism angle, but it's potentially valid even though she'd be an absolutely deserving nominee. Waititi has the important DGA nomination, but DGA and AMPAS rarely match 5-for-5. His inclusion or not here will go a long way toward deciding the Best Picture race, I feel. (Ugh.) But I think Baumbach—a previous writing nominee but never for directing—will be the "surprise" here in the morning. Marriage Story is a very directorly film—the staging is impeccable and there are a couple memorable long takes. I can see that branch having enough support for the film to nab Baumbach a nom. (Say that five times fast.) I'll be hoping for Gerwig or Almodóvar (although I'd be fine with Baumbach, honestly).
Wishful thinking: Josh and Bennie Safdie – Uncut Gems, James Gray – Ad Astra, Ari Aster – Midsommar
BEST PICTURE
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
1917
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Joker
Little Women
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Next in line:
Ford v Ferrari
The Farewell
Knives Out
The Two Popes
Bombshell
Uncut Gems
This is always the toughest category to predict, as the number of nominees isn't set. That said, I'd be pretty shocked if any of the top eight listed here miss out on a nomination. Little Women is period-piece Oscar catnip (although it's much more than that), Joaquin Phoenix will carry Joker to a nomination on his back, and Driver and ScarJo will do the same for Marriage Story. AMPAS isn't going to *not* nominate Scorsese's pensive gangster retrospective, nor Mendes's (purportedly) technically magnificent WWI epic. Parasite is thankfully primed to become South Korea's first Best Picture nominee, and Jojo Rabbit gets the requisite Holocaust film nomination. (*vomits*) And, at this juncture, OUATIH is happily the favorite. Let's all look back on this moment fondly when Imaginary Hitler and the Dead Mom ruin my Sunday night. Of the rest, I don't know if I see enough across-the-board support to get to a ninth or tenth nominee. Ford and Farewell would seem to have the best chances given the former's box office receipts and the latter's possible nominations in other major categories. Knives Out also has box office and critical pedigree, and a nomination wouldn't be a shock. Popes and Bombshell have a certain pedigree but a decided lack of buzz. Uncut Gems definitely has buzz in its favor, but was it released too late for most voters to see? As things stand right now, I'll go with a smaller field instead of going out on a limb. The top eight just seem right. Let's just hope that Jojo Rabbit doesn't gain any more momentum in the next month.
Wishful thinking: Avengers: Endgame, Ad Astra, Us
I'm actually finished relatively early for me—it's not even midnight, AZ time. Time to finish this beer and get some sleep—I've got a work meeting in the morning. But you know I'll be poring over the field before then. The films I'll be rooting for that seem to need it most are Parasite and Pain and Glory. Hoping for plenty of international nominations in these major categories in the morning!
