Mid-to-late January generally means two things to cinema buffs (well, this cinema buff, anyway): the anniversary of Heath Ledger's death and Oscar nomination Thursday. Both happen to fall on the same day this year: January 22nd. As we approach that mournful, yet celebratory, day, many of the major categories feel fairly settled, with maybe only a spot or two truly up for grabs. We also have a clear overall frontrunner, with One Battle After Another feeling inevitable in several of the major categories (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress). But there are always some surprises come nomination morning. Let's see if I can suss them out, or at least match last year's 38/45 correct guesses. Let's start with the screenplay categories, with nominees listed in order of likely nomination, as usual.
* = haven't seen it
^ = early winner prediction
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another^
Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell – Hamnet
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Train Dreams*
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
Will Tracey – Bugonia*
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Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Don McKellar, and Lee Ja-hye – No Other Choice
Rian Johnson – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
James Vanderbilt – Nuremberg*
The field seems to have coalesced around these five nominees, making for a rather underwhelming category. That's rather typical for this one—I doubt it but I'd wonder if AMPAS would ever consider going the Golden Globes route and including only one screenplay category. (Even my annual Fake Oscars did this years ago.) At this point, OBAA looks to be a shoo-in win. Hamnet has its fans, but I found it rather one-note and not particularly affecting. Haven't seen Train Dreams or Bugonia but hear good things. I'm a bit baffled by Frankenstein—it was a perfectly serviceable adaptation that didn't really add much new to an oft-told tale. If that or Bugonia were to miss out, Park and the No Other Choice team or Johnson for his latest Knives Out entries would be worthy nominees.
Wishful thinking: Alex Garland – 28 Years Later, JT Mollner – The Long Walk
Ryan Coogler – Sinners^
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt – Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein – Marty Supreme
Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby*
Other contenders:
Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent*
Zach Cregger – Weapons
As always, this is looking like a much stronger field. Starting at the top, Sinners is looking like the frontrunner as the most likely place to award a very well-liked film that could get shut out in the rest of the major categories. The two international films seem like safe bets—Trier is a previous nominee and Pahani's film won the Palme d'Or. The same goes for the surging Marty Supreme, which is nearly as panic-inducing as Uncut Gems at times. That leaves one slot open for a host of potential nominees, none of which I have seen besides Weapons, which I'm so pleased to see as a potential Oscar nominee. (I'll be rooting for Cregger for sure.) But I *think* this'll come down to Sorry, Baby versus The Secret Agent. Sometimes you have to play the demographics game with the Academy, so I'll predict the (female-presenting) nonbinary Victor over a third international nominee. But nothing would surprise me.
Wishful thinking: Ari Aster – Eddington, Andrew DeYoung – Friendship
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another^
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Odessa A’Zion – Marty Supreme
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Other contenders:
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good*
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
I'm quite nervous about this category for a couple reasons, which could possibly be interrelated toward the bottom of the list. But let's start at the top, where the first three names seem quite safe. Like Zoe Saldaña last year and Da'Vine Joy Randolph the year prior, the phenomenal Taylor has this race all but won even before the nominees are announced. Madigan and Lilleaas have been just behind her all awards season and are basically locks for nominations. (Both are excellent in VERY different ways, haha.) Next, I truly hope Mosaku doesn't get overlooked for what I think could very well be the best performance by any female actor in any movie last year. She *seems* to be relatively safe, but she doesn't exactly feel like a true lock either. Behind her, the next three names all seem on about the same ground. Marty Supreme has a ton of momentum right now, which could catapult A'Zion to a nomination. Wicked: For Good, thankfully, has faded significantly but there seems to still be support for Grande. (I'm really hoping that one misses out on any major category noms so I don't have to suffer through it. Did NOT like the first one at all.) Finally, similar to A'Zion, Fanning can ride her film's momentum to a (somewhat surprising) nom. This category is probably the one I'll be paying the closest attention to in the morning.
Wishful thinking: Jodie Comer – 28 Years Later, Diane Kruger – The Shrouds
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value^
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
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Other contenders:
Miles Caton – Sinners
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Okay, there shouldn't really be any drama in this field—these five names are almost certainly your nominees. Skarsgård and del Toro have been racking up most of the precursor awards, and Penn and Elordi have been right behind them. All are varying degrees of excellent and are very worthy nominees. Mescal is quite good in a film I didn't particularly care for and is coming off of nominations at the Golden Globes and SAGs (now apparently called the "Actor Awards") and seems very safe. Caton received a SAG nomination himself (he's incredible in Sinners), but that was seemingly only because Skarsgård somehow wasn't nominated. I don't think he—or the also outstanding—Lindo have much of a shot of breaking through, but I'd be happy if they did. I found the hype around Sandler's performance to be a bit overblown. While I'm a big fan of his dramatic work, he's good in Kelly but hardly great.
Wishful thinking: Josh O'Connor – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Paul Rudd – Friendship
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet^
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You*
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia*
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue*
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Other contenders:
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee*
This one feels a bit like Supporting Actress where the top three seem like locks, the fourth name seems fairly secure, and then there's three names with a relatively equal shot at the final nomination. At the top, are we potentially headed toward another dramatic Best Actress showdown? Last year, we had Demi Moore versus eventual winner Mikey Madison (I still think the Academy got that one wrong!). This year, we have Buckley, the current favorite, versus her Golden Globes co-winner Byrne. I'll weigh in on this race more after I've seen Legs (but for now I'll say Buckley was perfunctorily good, but not much more.) Behind them, Reinsve is a relative lock after missing out for (Fake Oscar–winning!) The Worst Person in the World, while Stone looks pretty safe to earn another nomination for her latest collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos. That leaves one spot for Hudson, Infiniti, or Seyfried. Infiniti seems to be the betting favorite, and she'd be quite worthy. But it's not 100% clear that she's actually a lead actress, and I wonder if she might be too new of a name when compared to Hudson and Seyfried. I have a feeling one of them sneaks in there, but I'd be happy to be wrong (as I'm not particularly interested in seeing either of their films). Let's go with the well-liked Hudson as the spoiler.
Wishful thinking: Julia Garner – Weapons, Julia Roberts – After the Hunt
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent*
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon*
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Other contenders:
Jesse Plemons – Bugonia*
Stop me if you've heard this one before—the first four names seem secure with three contenders for the final slot. The race at the top of the field will be fascinating—I was somewhat surprised by Chalamet's Globes win over DiCaprio, especially given OBAA's domination elsewhere. I wonder if the Oscars this year could be viewed as a "crowning" for the young Chalamet at the expense of Leo's (to me, superior) performance. Worse things have happened at the Oscars. Moving on, Jordan (maybe better than both in his dual role) and the Globe-winning Moura (looking forward to his film) seem safe, if also-rans to the top two. That leaves one spot for Hawke, Plemons, or Edgerton. I'm seeing a lot of predictions in Plemons's favor in the old "blogosphere," but Bugonia, to me, doesn't feel like a film with a ton of broad support. While on the other hand, you have a respected veteran (Hawke) playing a Broadway legend in a Richard Linklater movie. Yeah, I could see that doing well in voting, so I'm going with him. (Haven't seen Edgerton's movie but I'm a fan and would be tickled to see Hugo Croop himself get an Oscar nom.)
Wishful thinking: David Jonsson – The Long Walk, Joaquin Phoenix – Eddington
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another^
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident*
Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
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Other contenders:
Joaquim Trier – Sentimental Value
Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent*
As usual, this is one of—if not the—toughest categories to predict. I don't feel especially confident in anyone aside from frontrunner PTA and Coogler (who'd probably get my vote). From there, you've got a trio of international nominees (Panahi, Trier, and Mendonça), two previous winners (Zhao and del Toro), and and up-and-comer with a couple of near-classics to his name in Safdie. So let's try to narrow it down from there. I just think Panahi's backstory (from imprisonment to the Palme d'Or) is too good for the Academy to pass up, so I think he makes the field. Then I think Zhao is a good bet, fresh off her Golden Globes win and DGA nomination. That leaves Safdie (also DGA-nominated), Trier, del Toro (also DGA-nominated), and Mendonça. I just don't know if I see broad enough support for del Toro's and Mendonça's films, so the final slot could come down to Safdie and Trier. This is really too close to call, but I'll give the final slot to Safdie with the DGA nomination being the tiebreaker. But, again, outside of PTA and Coogler, no combination of the other six names—or even someone heretofore unmentioned—would surprise me much. Director's branch gonna director's branch.
Wishful thinking: Ari Aster – Eddington, Joseph Kosinski – F1
One Battle After Another^
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
It Was Just an Accident*
The Secret Agent*
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Other contenders:
F1
Wicked: For Good*
Weapons
Avatar: Fire and Ash
I'm not expecting a ton of drama here in our final category. If you look at the projected nominees above (at least 80% accurate or your money back!), they are dominated by the 10 films listed here. OBAA and Sinners both have the potential to tie or even break the all-time nominations record of 14 (All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land). Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value have possible or even likely winners in major categories. They're all stone cold locks. Then you have Frankenstein, which figures to have a ton of support from the technical branches, Accident's Palme d'Or and incredible backstory, and Bugonia's Lanthimos/Stone magic. Those feel safe-ish. Now, could a blockbuster like F1 or the Wicked/Avatar sequels sneak in over a smaller movie like Agent or Dreams? Sure. I'll be rooting for F1, which I loved. The same goes for Weapons and No Other Choice, which would be more than worthy nominees. But this category feels strangely settled. I guess we'll find out in the morning if I was off-base!
Wishful thinking: Eddington, Warfare
Hey, I got this done pretty early! It's Wednesday afternoon here in Arizona. I'm usually cranking this out late in the night, or even after midnight. Ah, the benefits of a slow workweek. In the morning, I'll be rooting for F1, Weapons, and No Other Choice to pick up unexpected nominations, Wunmi Mosaku to break through in Supporting Actress, and the Wicked sequel to miss out in the major categories. Anything for Eddington, one of my favorites and one I think will be remembered as one of the most important movies of the year, would be awesome. Other than that, just looking forward to seeing what I have to catch up with before 3/15. I gripe sometimes, but this is truly one of my favorite times of the year. Adios until my predictions and Fake Oscars in mid-March!
