Masterpiece vs. Meh-sterpiece: 2019 Oscars Predictions

Was it only a year ago that we were debating The Shape of Water versus Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri? It seems like it's been longer than that, mostly because those two films have almost completely been forgotten already—Get Out has, rightly, cemented its claim as *the* movie of 2017, Best Picture win or not. That gets me wondering what will be remembered as *the* movie of 2018. It certainly won't be would-be Best Picture contenders Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody. Even with a (very undeserved) win, they would fall to the cinematic wayside like previous Best Picture winners Crash and Chicago. Not even frontrunner Roma seems destined to be the 2018 film everyone is talking about 5 or 10 or 20 years from now—too underseen, too personal, not connected enough to the zeitgeist. No, I suspect that two other Best Picture contenders—and two who just might be able to pull off the upset—will be the ones audiences and critics alike will remember long after the lights are dimmed in Hollywood on Sunday night: Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman. Well-made, timely, and entertaining as all hell—that's how you get remembered. But only one of these films can win Best Picture. Which one do I think it will be? Read on to find out. Once again, I've seen all the nominees in the major categories, and I'll be hoping for a repeat of last year when I went 8-for-8 in my predictions. Let's see if I can do it again, starting, as they generally do in the ceremony itself, with the supporting categories.

Gold = predicted winner

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Vice
Marina de Tavira – Roma
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

I suppose there is a chance for an upset here—Weisz? Adams?—given that Regina King wasn't nominated by her peers (who comprise the largest Oscar voting body) for the SAG, but it doesn't seem likely. She gives a powerhouse performance in a film that likely came up just short of a Best Picture nomination—and this might be the only category to reward Barry Jenkins's follow-up to Moonlight. If not King, Academy voters might decide that Adams is overdue (she is, but not for Vice) or that Weisz gave the best supporting performance of the year (she did). Stone and de Tavira are (deserving enough) also-rans.

My Non-Existent Vote: Weisz

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Green Book

Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell – Vice

Barring a monumental upset, Mahershala Ali will win his second Oscar in three years for his affecting, empathetic performance in a film that is neither of those things. He was better in Moonlight, and at least two of the nominees here give better performances (Elliott and Grant), but he'll make a fine winner. I'd prefer Elliott, or, especially, Grant, but A Star Is Born's star has faded to a dull glow over the past few months, and Can You Ever Forgive Me? was always destined to be a "nominated but doesn't win" film. I'm not an Adam Driver guy, but he was admittedly good in BlacKkKlansman, but he'll have to wait for his first Oscar (it's coming). Rockwell already got his last year and will be relegated to clapping for the winner on Sunday, just happy to be there for his entirely undeserved nomination.

My Non-Existent Vote: Grant

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Glenn Close – The Wife

Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

For a film awards show, there sure will be a lack of drama in the acting categories (for a second year in a row), as Glenn Close will win her first career Oscar (in seven tries). She was nominated five times between 1982 and 1988, then again in 2011 for all-time great movie title Albert Nobbs, and will get her first statue for playing the wife in The Wife, a thoroughly ho-hum literary drama in which she gives a largely reserved performance. In other words, this is the Denzel Washington Training Day or Julianne Moore Still Alice treatment. Still, it'll bring the house down when she wins. I'd prefer Colman or even Gaga, but it's hard to disparage a legend finally getting hers. It wouldn't at all surprise me to see McCarthy back in the field at some point, which I can't say about Aparicio.

My Non-Existent Vote: Colman

Best Actor

Christian Bale – Vice

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe – At Eternity's Gate

Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

This is a truly sorry group. I actually consider myself a Christian Bale fan, but other than The Fighter (for which he won), not a one of his other nominations was deserved (American Hustle, The Big Short, and, now, Vice). Mortensen, as usual, approached his character with an almost zealotous dedication... but it wasn't a very good character to begin with, and the movie around him is even worse (although it's not *quite* the total dumpster fire many would have you believe). Likely winner Rami Malek was... fine in a biopic that had the production values of a VH1 movie (but one that will have a ton of rewatch value on cable). The fake chompers did him no favors though, and he's destined to be more of a trivia question answer than a screen legend. Cooper was actually pretty good, but I suspect he got in more on star power and the fact that he wrote and directed the film. Dafoe was quite good, but I don't think he'd even be nominated most years. Let's hope for a better field next year.

My Non-Existent Vote: Cooper

Best Adapted Screenplay

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk

Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters – A Star Is Born

I didn't believe it even after I'd looked it up: Until this year, Spike Lee didn't have a single dramatic Oscar nomination to his name since Do the Right Thing, which he didn't even win for (losing to fucking Dead Poets Society). Not Malcolm X, not Summer of Sam, not 25th Hour, not even Inside Man. The Academy did throw him an honorary Oscar bone in 2015, but not even one nomination in almost 30 years is embarrassing (although he did get a nomination for his 4 Little Girls documentary in 1998). They'll rectify their error on Sunday with a much deserved win for BlacKkKlansman, which is as funny as it is powerful. I honestly don't see any potential spoilers here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Wachtel, Rabinowitz, Willmott, and Lee

Best Original Screenplay

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara – The Favourite

Paul Schrader – First Reformed

Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly – Green Book

Alfonso Cuarón – Roma

Adam McKay – Vice

This is the toughest to call of the major categories. All five nominees seem to have a chance, although, unfortunately, the best of them—Schrader—seems to have the least chance (too complex, too dark, too... weird). I could see the Academy going with previous winner McKay for his Vice script that's as liberal as it is overwritten, Farrelly et al. for its didactic and glad-handed message, or Cuarón as a nod to the Best Picture frontrunner. But The Favourite is tied with Roma for the most nominations with 10, and this is the best chance it has in a major category, so that puts Davis and McNamara over the top for me. Their script is masterfully structured and bitingly funny, even if it's not the most substantive.

My Non-Existent Vote: Schrader

Best Director

Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón – Roma

Adam McKay – Vice

It's tough to see anyone upsetting Alfonso Cuarón's bid for a second Oscar here. Kind of crazy to think his two Oscars will be for the CGI space epic Gravity and the ultra-personal, black-and-white drama Roma—and both are equally deserved. If anyone could play spoiler, it'd be Lee, but I think voters will be content to give him the screenplay award and leave it at that. Europeans Lanthimos and Pawlikowski are in the "nomination is their win" category, and McKay's nomination is a testament to the still formidable Old White Guard of the Academy (I think... hard to tell given the liberal slant of the movie). Maybe do another Ferrell/Reilly movie before your next Very Important Movie, eh?

My Non-Existent Vote: Cuarón

Best Picture

A Star Is Born

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

Vice

The five I mentioned at the beginning seem to be the only real contenders here, so that means sorry A Star Is Born (my how its star has fallen), The Favourite (too niche), and Vice (just not very good). I don't think "BoRap" has much of a chance either, despite its Golden Globe win—sorry not sorry, Brian Singer. I still think there's a slight possibility of Black Panther or BlacKkKlansman (in that order) pulling the upset, but I think it comes down to Roma and Green Book. This race feels a lot like 2017, when it was Moonlight versus La La Land. Unlike last year, it felt like something was at stake that year—the aforementioned Old White Guard versus the new and vital and more inclusive Academy membership. It's that same dynamic this year, although the stakes feel heightened, as Roma, while not as important a film as Moonlight, is even more obviously superior to Green Book than Moonlight was to La La Land. Green Book seems like a relic of the '80s—its approach is that ham-handed and its messaging is that obvious. It's a movie that, frankly, doesn't have a reason to exist in 2018 other than for white people to pat themselves on the back. Roma, on the other hand, is a profound personal drama that touches on some of the same race/class/power issues but is infinitely more technically impressive. I was prepared for La La Land to win in 2017 despite its pat-ness because it was also technically impressive—it was nominated for and won several technical awards that year, including Best Cinematography. Green Book only has a Best Editing nomination, and that probably isn't even deserved. All of which is to say that it would just feel like a gut punch were it to win, just two years after Moonlight achieved the impossible. Even worse, it would feel like a step backward given the ever-diversifying Academy membership. That's why I think Roma will win—it feels like the Academy is done with back-patting, with mediocrity, with looking backward. I think Roma will take the award and then go quietly into the Hollywood night, making way for the next moving, challenging, skillful masterwork rather than the next crowd-pleasing meh-sterpiece. I'm prepared to be wrong, but I don't think I will be.

My Non-Existent Vote: Roma

Rant out of the way, let's do the rest of the categories lightning-round style.

Best Foreign Language Film

Roma – Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón

Duh—if you're the only foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture, you're gonna win this category. One of the easier calls of the night.

My Non-Existent Vote: Roma

Best Animated Film 

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, and Christopher Miller

This is also another fairly easy call—the superlative Spiderverse has taken almost every single precursor. And rightly so—it's a stunning feat of animation, and a heartfelt story to boot.

My Non-Existent Vote: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Feature

Free Solo – Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, and Shannon Dill

This category is always a guess for me because I'm a Bad White Person who doesn't like documentaries. It's either this or RBG, and this one seems like it would be more memorable to me.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Short

Black Sheep – Ed Perkins and Jonathan Chinn

Another complete guess. You would have to pay me so much money to sit through not one but five documentaries.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Animated Short

Bao – Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb

Although they didn't win last year, it's usually a good idea to bet on Pixar. That said, Weekends was head and shoulders above the rest of the nominees—and not just because it featured the Dire Straits.

My Non-Existent Vote: Weekends – Trevor Jimenez

Best Live Action Short

Marguerite – Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset

It wasn't the best of the nominees (see below), but I'll go with it because it was so vastly different than the other four nominees. Note that Detainment and, especially, Skin are utter pieces of shit.

My Non-Existent Vote: Mother – Rodrigo Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado

Best Score

Terence Blanchard – BlacKkKlansman

This is my favorite of the nominees, and it's the only Best Picture nominee along with Black Panther so it's my pick. Watch for Nicholas Britell's If Only Beale Street Could Talk score though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Blanchard

Best Original Song

"Shallow" – Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt (from A Star Is Born)

This is the single easiest call on the board—not only is it a damn good song, but it's integral to the film's story as well. Lady Gaga gets halfway to the EGOT.

My Non-Existent Vote: "Shallow"

Best Cinematography

Alfonso Cuarón – Roma

Cold War was also impressive as a black-and-white nominee, but this figures to go to Cuarón and Roma. And it's a damn good-looking movie too—especially the mid-film New Year's sequence.

My Non-Existent Vote: Cuarón

Best Editing

Barry Alexander Brown – BlacKkKlansman

This will probably be ACE Eddie award winner John Ottman, but I can't in good conscience predict it because it is actually very poorly edited. This is actually an uninspiring field, but Brown was best.

My Non-Existent Vote: Brown

Best Production Design

Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton – The Favourite

Watch for Black Panther here, but the opulent period (uh, phrasing?) sets of The Favourite are the kind of thing Oscar voters usually go for in this category.

My Non-Existent Vote: Crombie and Felton

Best Costume Design

Sandy Powell – The Favourite

Powell has an astounding 15 Oscar nominations, but only 3 wins. She'll make it four wins for her work on The Favourite, as AMPAS eats this shit up even more so than it does for Production Design.

My Non-Existent Vote: Powell

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, and Patricia Dehaney – Vice

It's honestly fucking embarrassing that Suspiria wasn't nominated. The makeup/hairstyling in Vice paled in comparison, but it will almost assuredly win.

My Non-Existent Vote: Cannom, Biscoe, and Dehaney

Best Sound Mixing

Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, and John Casali – Bohemian Rhapsody

These two are always a crapshoot. Is there a war movie? A musical? Do I vote for the same one for both? The latter is usually a good strategy, so I'll combine it with the musical biopic and call it a day.

My Non-Existent Vote: Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, and Mary H. Ellis – First Man

Best Sound Editing

John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone – Bohemian Rhapsody

Again, going with "BoRap" for both and hoping to get at least one right. But Black Panther and First Man are contenders in both categories.

My Non-Existent Vote: Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan – First Man

Best Visual Effects

Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, and J. D. Schwalm – First Man

This one, counterintuitively, almost never goes to CGI-heavy blockbusters—and Black Panther isn't even nominated here. I expect First Man to do well in the techs, so I'll give it this one.

My Non-Existent Vote: Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick – Avengers: Infinity War

This feels like another 18/24 year—which might be enough for an Oscar pool win. As usual, it'll come down to the shorts, which are almost impossible to predict. But best of luck to everyone in their pools, and may Roma take the big prize!