From New Zealand to Memphis: Best Music of 2022

I've been doing a yearly music recap on this blog since 2009. Most years, it takes the form of a simple top 10 albums list. It's easy, it's tidy, it's standard. There have only been a few times I've deviated from that format: in 2013 and 2014 I used a Grammys-style format; then in 2018 I did a playlist/top 20 songs format. Why the change in those years? Simple: I just couldn't come up with a top-10 albums list I was satisfied with. Some music years are stronger than others, album-wise. And, as I discussed last year, I find myself drifting further and further away from the album as my main mode of music consumption—which likely has a lot to do with why I struggled with the usual top-10 list. (I even struggled with a top-5 list, as you'll find out below.) Will this change be permanent? Who knows. Maybe 2023 will be the year the album is revived for me (again). Or maybe it'll be another playlist year. Regardless, it was actually easy to put these categories together this year: there are only four. Perhaps my listening habits are becoming more siloed, coalescing around the four genres (and, really, it's probably only three actual genres) you'll see below. But back in 2014, I had six such genres—absent here are rap and electronic music, neither of which I really listened to much this past year. Oh well. It was still a pretty solid year for music. Preamble out of the way, here's the music I dug most in 2022.

* = saw live this year

Best Emo/Punk Album

Frank Turner – FTHC
Mom Jeans. – Sweet Tooth
Oso Oso – sore thumb*
Riverby – Absolution
The Wonder Years – The Hum Goes on Forever
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Honorable mentions: Coheed and Cambria – Vaxis – Act II: A Window of the Waking Mind, Hot Water Music – Feel the Void, Pinegrove – 11:11, Viagra Boys – Cave World

Of the four genre categories here, this one probably represents the smallest percentage of my music listening in 2022—at least as far as new releases go. I listened to a ton of New Found Glory, Jimmy Eat World, The Menzingers, and last year's #1, Sincere Engineer, in 2022, but gave comparably fewer spins to new emo/punk releases. I'm sure there's much more great stuff out there, but I don't think I'm as tapped in to this genre as I used to be for whatever reason. Perhaps I'll try to find more of an "in" in 2023.

In the meantime, this is still a pretty solid group of records. PA punk vets The Wonder Years have always been a "like not love" band for me. Their new one didn't change that—it largely failed to live up to the excellent "Wyatt's Song (Your Name)" single—but it did move the needle in the right direction. Mom Jeans. had been on the periphery of my genre knowledge, but this Jeff Rosenstock–influenced release—buoyant but only to hide the sadness—firmly grabbed my attention. The new Oso Oso didn't seem to live up to 2019's basking in the glow at first blush—the songwriting and album construction aren't quite as tight—but it's been growing on me. Seeing him play several of the songs live when they opened for The Menzingers helped. The relatively unknown Riverby—who play like a more emo-leaning Sincere Engineer but out of Philly instead of Chicago—were a great discovery courtesy of baseball writer Keith Law's newsletter/blog. It's a short but sweet collection of bangers and ballads both.

But the best of the bunch is the latest from British folk-punk (although punk-folk might be more accurate) stalwart Frank Turner. My brother got me into Turner several years ago (in the Tape Deck Heart era), and his brand of brash vulnerability is right in my aesthetic wheelhouse. Like most Turner albums, much of FTHC is autobiographical. He lets us into his anxiety-ridden mind in "Haven't Been Doing So Well" and pens a pair of songs about his once-absentee and now-transitioning father ("Fatherless" and "Miranda"). But the highlight—and one of the best songs of the year—is the stunning, heartfelt tribute to Scott Hutchison of Frightened Rabbit, "A Wave Across a Bay." It's a beautiful song and a true showcase for Turner's abilities as a lyricist, vocalist, and arranger—he's one of the most underrated songwriters around.

Best Pop Artist

Carly Rae Jepsen — The Loneliest Time
Let's Eat Grandma – Two Ribbons
The Regrettes – Further Joy
Sammy Rae & The Friends*
Taylor Swift – Midnights
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Honorable mentions: Hatchie – Giving the World Away, Maggie Rogers – Surrender, Mitski – Laurel Hell, Soccer Mommy – Sometimes, Forever

It was a tough choice for the fifth nominee in this field. The Chvrches-esque Hatchie was a good discovery this year, and this was the first Mitski album I've been able to get into. (There's just been something missing for me in her previous releases.) Surrender was a solid sophomore record for Rogers, but I need to spend more time with it. I like both of the last two Soccer Mommy albums, but we're seeing mild diminishing returns from Sophia Allison now with three albums in four years. So I went with the cheekily named Let's Eat Grandma for the fifth slot. I haven't listened to the album as a whole a ton, but "Happy New Year" and the title track are both among my most-listened of the year—pristine, mineralized synth-pop gems.

You can quibble about The Regrettes' placement here—they started as a pop-punk band but Further Joy pretty much takes the "-punk" out of the equation, and they pull off the shift to pop with aplomb. They were an easy fourth inclusion here. So were, obviously, Swift and Jepsen. But what might surprise some is that I rank the latter ahead of the former here. Midnights feels like a step backward to Swift's Reputation era for me. That's easily my least favorite mature Swift album—it's full of tryhard bad girl pretensions that I just don't buy. There are some bops here to be sure, like "Karma," but stinkers like "Vigilante Shit" just have me rolling my eyes. But Loneliest is all bangers all the time—"Surrender My Heart" is one of the best singles of the year, and on "Beach House," Jepsen delivers lines like "I got a beach house in Malibu and I'm probably gonna hurt your feelings" with a wink Swift could never hope to pull off.

But all of these nominees finish behind an act that didn't even release an album in 2022—and in fact don't have a full-length release to their name—hence the name of the category. I'm talking about Sammy Rae & The Friends, an absolutely delightful pop/indie/disco/ska/reggae/jazz collective out of Brooklyn (duh) that defies simple genre categorization. (But I'm nevertheless slotting them here.) I was introduced to them earlier this year (or maybe last year?) by my lovely girlfriend. They remind me of an East Coast MisterWives, an American Lily Allen, No Doubt if they decided not to suck. They released several singles this year (most recently a cover of Cher's "Believe") but none better than "For the Time Being," a sweet, strummy singalong complete with flute, saxaphone, and a call-and-response chorus. It was a blast live at one of my favorite concerts of the year.

Best Indie Rock Album

beabadoobee – Beatopia
Beach Bunny – Emotional Creature
The Beths – Expert in a Dying Field
Metric – Formentera*
Wet Leg – Wet Leg
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Honorable mentions: Death Cab for Cutie – Asphalt Meadows, Eve 6 – hyper relevisation, Spoon – Lucifer on the Sofa, Stars – From Capelton Hill

No offense to veterans like Death Cab, Spoon, and, especially, Eve 6 (one of the best Twitter follows of the year as well), but the ladies owned indie rock in 2022. (Shoutout to Amy Millan of the always-fun Stars.) I thought about slotting beabadoobee in the category above, but unlike most of the women there, she actually plays (the hell out of) guitar, and Beatopia is a dreamy, dramatic, sometimes dingy trek through your early 20s, of a piece with Soccer Mommy (exploring similar thematic terrain with a bit different sonic sensibility). Wet Leg was a late-year discovery for me—they kept appearing in all those "Best of 2022" lists for a reason, as I discovered. The term "earworm" is perhaps overused, but it applies to these two Wight chicks (excuse the pun) and their album full of wry rompers like the inescapable "Chaise Longue." Beach Bunny wasn't a new discovery for me—I quite liked the 2020 non-album single "Good Girls (Don't Get Used)"—but their new album would have made my top-10 list had I made one. Emotional Creature is a fantastic sophomore album—"Somebody's gonna figure me out" Lili Trifilio laments on opener "Entropy," but it sounds like she's already figured her band's sound out: sprightly riffs, winsome melodies, catchy af choruses. Keep it coming, please!

Let me stop here to address the elephant in the room (blog post): a Metric album not winning in this category. On of my all-time favorite bands, they have three albums that are my #1 of the year they came out—2009's Fantasies, 2012's Synthetica, and 2018's Art of Doubt (ignore the low placing of Fantasies in the link at the beginning; I'd just discovered the band then). There's only one Metric album since 2009 that wasn't my favorite of the year it was released—2015's Pagans in Vegas, an album that Formentera very much feels like a companion piece to. Like Pagans, Formentera is a bit underwritten and overcooked at the same time, full of roughly hewn, chunky midtempo numbers. It's kicked off by the meandering, sometimes gorgeous "Doomscroller," which is followed by two solid singles that actually feel more like Synthetica sequels ("All Comes Crashing" and "What Feels Like Eternity"). The middle of the album sags a bit before the lovely closer "Paths in the Sky," but the album as a whole has yet to really grab me. Pagans eventually grew on me a bit, but I still don't know if I'd put it much higher than #9 of 2015. Formentera already seems resigned to a similar "good, not great" fate. Hey, they can't all be winners, kid.

That leaves us with only one album left in this category, which is the clear winner: The Beths' stellar third album, Expert in a Dying Field. Future Me Hates Me put them on my radar in 2018, but 2020's Jump Rope Gazers totally blew me away—it was my #2 album of that year. And that's exactly what happened here in 2022—(spoiler alert) Expert is also my second-favorite album of the year. I was enormously excited for this one, especially after hearing the first couple lead singles ("Silence Is Golden" and the title track). But the single I dug the most was "A Real Thing," a Song of the Year contender that strangely wasn't included on the album. Ah, well. The songs that did make it easily make up for that curious omission, especially "Knees Deep," "When You Know You Know," and personal favorite "Best Left," a shimmering, slow-building ballad with phenomenal guitar work that must be incredible live. (Although I just found out I'll be out of town when these guys come to PHX—d'oh!) No one is making music quite like this charming New Zealand quartet right now, so hopefully they keep up this album-every-two-years pace.

Best (Rootsy/Americana/Alternative?) Rock Album

The Afghan Whigs – How Do You Burn?
Cory Branan – When I Go I Ghost
Eddie Vedder – Earthling
Gregor Barnett – Don't Go Throwing Roses in My Grave*
Zach Bryan – American Heartbreak
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Honorable mentions: Carson McHone – Still Life, Delta Spirit – One Is One, The Drive-By Truckers – Welcome 2 Club XIII, The Mountain Goats – Bleed Out

Forgive the clumsy category title—these artists mostly fit under the same umbrella and "indie rock" was taken. There's a southern/country flair to most of these acts that clearly distinguishes them from the ones in the category above. Interesting how terms like "alternative" and "indie" don't really mean anything anymore since mainstream rock isn't really a thing anymore. But as you can see here and above, there's still lots of great rock music being made.

So much so that I had a hard time narrowing this to five nominees—this category probably made up the biggest slice of my listening pie this year. I spent a long time debating between DBTs (another solid release) and Delta Saint (Matthew Logan Vasquez's band) as the final inclusion until I heard Zach Bryan (another late-year "Best of" list find) only a week or two ago. The quality of his songwriting was immediately apparent, to say nothing of the sheer quantity (34 tracks!). This is back porch/backroads music of the highest caliber—plainspoken and sometimes plaintive, reminiscent of early Lucero, Dustin Kensrue's solo stuff, kin to Chris Stapelton and Sturgill Simpson (albeit not nearly as bombastic guitar-wise). I look forward to delving further into these tracks in 2023. 

Next up is a band I'd long heard of but never really heard: The Afghan Whigs. I knew they were grunge or grunge-adjacent in the '90s, but grunge was never really my scene. They wouldn't normally be on my radar, but Spotify evidently thought otherwise, and I was immediately intrigued by "I'll Make You See God" when the algorithm put it in front of me. It's got a driving, QOTSA-esque riff, ferocious rhythm section, and fiery guitar solo, all overlaid with Greg Dulli's weathered, haunting vocals. The rest of the album is similar, but with plenty of moments of quiet beauty as well. It doesn't exactly fit with the rest of the nominees, but placing it here made the most sense.

We also have another '90s alternative frontman solo release here, with Eddie Vedder's impeccably crafted Earthling. Pearl Jam is probably my "favorite" of the big grunge bands, but I more respect them than actively listen to them. But I've always liked Vedder's solo stuff (especially his music for films like Into the Wild), and he enlisted an all-star supporting cast for this one (Chad Smith, Josh Klinghoffer, Benmont mother fucking Tench, even Stevie Wonder, Ringo Starr, and Elton John). My favorite is the Tom Petty homage "Long Way." Slightly less accomplished than Vedder is Gregor Barnett of The Menzingers fame, and his solo debut is an assured amalgamation of his Rust Belt punk sensibilities and a Southern Gothic sound. Some of the songs are a bit same-y, but I'd absolutely take another album of this.

Like I said above, this is the "genre" I listened to the most in 2022, and the artist I listened to the most was the easy winner here: Cory Branan. In fact, if you look at my Last.fm (yep, I still keep up with mine almost 20 years on) you'll see that I listened to Branan almost twice as much this year as the artist that came in second (The Beths, obviously). When I Go I Ghost is that damn good—it's this year's pantheon album, an all-timer you know you'll still be listening to two, three, five, ten years down the line. Not every year has one—I don't think last year did, and neither did 2016 or 2019—but I knew this year would almost as soon as I heard "When In Rome, When In Memphis," one of the best singles I've heard in a long, long time. It was so good I was almost afraid the rest of the album wouldn't live up to it. But it more than did with sensational tracks like the soul-influened "That Look I Lost," backalley stomper "When I Leave Here," wistful shredder "Room 101," and the gorgeous duet with Garrison Starr "On the Waterfront." There's not a weak track on the album—and believe me, I'd know with how much I've listened to it. I can't wait to keep doing so in the years to come—and to see him perform some of the songs live in March.

Song of the Year

Carly Rae Jepsen – "Surrender My Heart"
Cory Branan – "When In Rome, When In Memphis"
Frank Turner – "A Wave Across a Bay"
Jimmy Eat World – "Something Loud"*
Sammy Rae & The Friends – "For the Time Being"*
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Honorable mentions: The Beths – "A Real Thing", Eddie Vedder – "Long Way", Metric – "All Comes Crashing"*, Sincere Engineer – "Bottle Lightning Twice"*, The Wonder Years – "Wyatt's Song (Your Name)"

I had an easy enough time with the top four here, but the fifth spot gave me a bit of trouble. For most of the year, I had The Beths' powerpop masterpiece "A Real Thing" in my top 5. It's a summery toetapper with an insistent riff, incredible bridge, and a short-but-scintillating guitar solo. But just like it didn't wind up making The Beths' album, it just missed out here, overtaken late in the year by the pop confection perfection of "Surrender My Heart," Carly Rae's best song since the inimitable "Call Me Maybe." Her vocals are absolutely flawless, as is the production, and the chorus is an absolute MONSTER. It's quite simply addicting, so it gets the nod over the plucky Beths track.

Speaking of incredible vocals, we have Sammy Rae, who can flat-out fucking SING. She's got a shy sweetness like Carly Rae, but also a powerful set of pipes with plenty of range. Her talents are on full display on "Time," which has a beautiful, slow build that crescendos to a stunning finale. It's not a dissimilar structure to Turner's "Wave," perhaps the most heartrending song of the year, as mentioned above. It starts off almost conversational, with Turner plainly addressing the suicide of his friend, eventually addressing him directly—"God damn, I miss you, man." But when the chorus hits, he gets more metaphorical, and the emotion swells in his voice—"You were a wave across the bay never breaking." Powerful stuff, just like Jimmy Eat World's non-album single "Something Loud"—albeit in a more universal, less personal way. Jim Adkins and Co. manage to perfectly capture that feeling you had in your teens or 20s that a song could change your life—and they manage to prove that maybe it still could. It's vintage stuff from another of my all-time favorite bands. Here's hoping their next album taps into this same vein.

These are all GREAT songs, but the clear, easy winner here is Cory Branan's "When In Rome, When In Memphis", which seared itself into my soul from the very first time I heard the striking opening chord. I've long been a Cory Branan fan since he was name-checked in one of my favorite Lucero songs, "Tears Don't Matter Much": "Cory Branan's got an evil streak / And a way with words that'll bring you to your knees." They were, of course, right—just listen to "Survivor Blues." So I'm always excited when new Cory Branan music comes into my life. But I wasn't prepared for how much this song—and album—would resonate with me right away. To put it into perspective, I've been on Last.fm since 2005, keeping track of every song I've ever listed to on my iPod/iTunes/Spotify. "When In Rome, When In Memphis" is currently my third most-played song of all time, with 100+ plays... and it came out in September. I must've listed to it at least 15+ times that first day alone, transfixed by the scorching guitar work, the phenomenal lyrics ("She strikes up the heart of me, my arteries spark"), the backing vox courtesy (and indelibly) of Jason Isbell, the spellbinding chorus. It's crazy to find a song you immediately know will become one of your all-time favorites, and I'm positively giddy to get to see him perform it in March.

Artist of the Year

The Beths
Cory Branan
Kendrick Lamar
James McMurtry
Sammy Rae & The Friends*

I've said enough about The Beths, Sammy Rae, and easy winner Cory Branan enough above. But for the record, Branan was my #1 album of the year, followed by The Beths at #2. I don't know what #3 would have been if I tried to make a top-5 or -10, honestly. So allow me to cheat a little bit with this category as a way to shoehorn in a couple artists who didn't fit into the categories above but were nevertheless important this year: Kendrick Lamar and James McMurtry.

I didn't have a Best Rap category this year because I didn't listen to much rap. I gave cursory listens to releases by Vince Staples, Kevin Gates, Logic, and Kid Cudi, but that's about it—other than Kendrick. But I didn't actually listen to Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers a ton. Don't get me wrong—I've listened to it several times through and really dig it. But there's a LOT of material here—duh, it's a double album—and some of it is quite heavy, like "We Cry Together," which is basically a domestic dispute in song form. It's intense. So I can't really say I listened to it enough to make any kind of declaration about it. (I don't think it's as good as Good Kid or Pimp, though.) But I did want to acknowledge it—mostly as a reminder to explore it in more detail in 2023. (And more rap in general.)

Finally, I wanted to give a shoutout to James McMurtry, the singer-songwriter son of novelist Larry McMurtry. He released an excellent album last year called The Horses and the Hounds that might very well have been my #1 album of 2022... if I had discovered it in time. I had heard and enjoyed a song or two courtesy of Spotify's algorithm, but it wasn't until sometime in March that I gave the album a whirl. I was hooked by his unadorned vocals, country fair band sound, and, most of all, his story-song stylings. The best example is the first song of his I heard, "Canola Fields," a wistful acoustic number with knockout lines like this: "In a way-back corner of a cross-town bus / We were hiding out under my hat / Cashin' in on a thirty-year crush /You can't be young and do that." The whole album is full of everyday poetry like that—not to mention consummate musicianship. I just wish I'd discovered it earlier.

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And that's a wrap on my annual music writeup. Nearly 4,000 words in about 3 days... not too shabby. I look forward to seeing what 2023 brings—and there will almost certainly be a 2022 album, like James McMurtry, that I missed. I'm sure I'll look back on this blog post (and I always do) in a year or two or more and chuckle at what I'd missed or over/underrated. That's really why I write these: for myself. But, if you're someone who's not me and is reading this, I give you my thanks. And a Happy New Year!

High Drama, Low Stakes: My 2022 Oscars Predictions

 

In my predictions last year, I wrote about how there didn't figure to be much drama at the ceremony. Nomadland won Best Picture and Best Director, as predicted, but Frances McDormand was a somewhat surprise winner for Best Actress, while Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor in a ceremony-ending shocker over the late Chadwick Boseman. (Still can't believe they didn't end with Best Picture.) So, yeah, definitely some drama.

I'm expecting even more this year. While several main categories seem like foregone conclusions, two massive ones are anybody's guess at this point: Best Actress and Best Picture itself. Plus many of the smaller/technical categories seem less settled than usual. This is as tough a ceremony to predict as I can remember. I don't typically fare well in my Oscar pool among friends, but I'm expecting to do even worse than usual. But at least the ceremony should be more exciting than last year's! Let's dive in to my predictions, starting with the supporting categories that don't actually seem to have much room for drama.

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

Judi Dench – Belfast

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

There was a brief moment in time right after The Power of the Dog was first released when it seemed like Kirsten Dunst could win here, but then the Ariana DeBose train got rolling and it never really stopped. She won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and SAG awards and will almost certainly take home the Oscar tonight. She's quite good, but I must admit I don't understand why she's so far ahead of the other nominees. Nostalgia factor for the original film adaptation plays a big part, I'm sure. The tastefully named Buckley and Ellis are worthy nominees (as is Dunst), but Dench over her castmate Caitriona Balfe is just a baffling, egregious decision. Buckley might have had the best performance here, but I'd give my vote to Dunst if I had one.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Dunst, 2) Buckley, 3) Ellis, 4) DeBose, 5) Dench

Best Supporting Actor

Ciarán Hinds – Belfast

Troy Kotsur – CODA

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

In both of these categories, the one-time frontrunner from TPOTD was overtaken by a now-prohibitive favorite from a different film. This time, it's CODA's Troy Kotsur who seems primed to win the statue that once seemed like Kodi Smit-McPhee's to lose. No complaints here—I do think Kotsur gives the best performance of this group. Hinds is a great character actor who I'm happy to see recognized (even if the actual performance isn't exactly anything amazing), and Plemons is worthy enough of a nominee. Simmons is like Dench in the category above—no idea what he's doing here, he's just coasting on likability and past plaudits.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Kotsur, 2) Smit-McPhee, 3) Hinds, 4) Plemons, 5) Simmons

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Ugh, this category is kind of maddening. Up until very recently, there was no clear frontrunner, with the various critic's societies and minor industry awards going several different direction. Kidman did win the Golden Globe, but that wasn't seen as especially predictive. Then Jessica Chastain won the Critics' Choice and SAG within the last month or so, and the race seems to have coalesced around her at this point. Two things about that: 1) I REALLY did not care for her performance in Eyes—it's basically cosplay/dressup, and 2) I don't actually think she's going to win tonight. But I have no idea who would win instead. Cruz seems to have gained a little momentum, and Colman shouldn't be counted out. And neither Kidman nor Stewart would truly shock me. But I'm just hedging my bet here and going with the favorite while hoping she doesn't actually win (even though I'm generally a fan! Just not this time).

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Cruz, 2) Colman, 3) Stewart, 4) Kidman, 5) Chastain

Best Actor

Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick... Boom!

Will Smith – King Richard

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

All right, back to chalk. No one but Will Smith is winning this award. I know, I know—that's what everyone said about Boseman last year. But there's no Anthony Hopkins in this year's field. Cumberbatch lurks as the likeliest spoiler, but he's still a big longshot. Smith will go home with his first Oscar for a performance I wasn't all that enamored with. (But I generally don't go for biopics.) I thought Cumberbatch and, especially, Garfield and Washington were superior. Bardem is in the same boat as Dench and Simmons—he doesn't belong here. (Although his inclusion isn't as big a head-scratcher as the other two.)

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Garfield, 2) Washington, 3) Cumberbatch, 4) Smith, 5) Bardem

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter

Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe – Drive My Car

Sian Heder – CODA

Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth – Dune

This is between CODA and TPOTD. In what could be a preview of the Best Picture finale, I expect CODA's Sian Heder to win here for her charming but lightweight crowd-pleaser. Campion has a shot, but with overall support for her film flagging a bit, it's tough to imagine her winning here as well as Best Director, which she should win handily. The rest of the nominees are all solid—this is a strong category for a change. (It's usually stuffy period pieces and literary adaptations.) Drive My Car or Dune are my favorites, but Maggie Gyllenhaal's first feature as a writer was excellent as well.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Dune, 2) Drive My Car, 3) The Lost Daughter, 4) The Power of the Dog, 5) CODA

Best Original Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

Zach Baylin – King Richard

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

Adam McKay and David Sirota – Don't Look Up

Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World

Here's another tough one to predict. Belfast won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice, Licorice Pizza actually beat Belfast for the BAFTA, and Don't Look Up somehow won the SAG in spite of its decidedly mixed reception. I don't think it's a real contender here—nor King Richard or the outstanding Worst Person—so this figures to come down to two nominees with 0 wins in now 19 nominations between them. I suspect Paul Thomas Anderson will just edge out Kenneth Branagh, but I wouldn't bat an eye should the latter win. Neither would get my vote—both films fall firmly in the "good, not great" category for me—but I'm fine with either of them winning. 

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) The Worst Person in the World, 2) Licorice Pizza, 3) Belfast, 4) King Richard, 5) Don't Look Up

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Jane Campion winning here might be the biggest lock of the night. Oddsmakers have her as -3500 to win in this category, tied with Dune in Best Visual Effects for the biggest favorite of the night. To put that into perspective, none of the big favorites in the acting categories have better odds than -1600 (DuBose). So mark Campion down on your ballot as a more than worthy winner—TPOTD was certainly, er, powerful, even if a bit (okay, more than a bit) slow. My vote would easily go to Hamaguchi for successfully—and sensationally—adapting Haruki Murakami to the big screen. Both Anderson's and Branagh's movies were better written than directed, and although I didn't care for West Side Story (avowed musical hater here), Spielberg did direct the hell out of it.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Hamaguchi, 2) Campion, 3) Spielberg, 4) Anderson, 5) Branagh

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

This is being set up as CODA versus The Power of the Dog, as one-time contender Belfast has faded into also-ran status. West Side Story and Dune, respectively are the only other nominees with even a whiff of possibility. WSS is beloved by critics and industry insiders, but it was a box office disappointment, while Dune doesn't figure to be the first sci-fi movie to win Best Picture in spite of what is sure to be a bevy of technical awards tonight. The rest are just happy to be here, especially Nightmare Alley, the only Best Picture nominee without a nomination in another major category. I have no real issues with this field overall—they're all solid at worst. But this year probably won't be remembered as an especially great year in cinema, regardless of who wins.

A close race between two films like this should be exciting, but I just can't get that fired up about either film, honestly. TPOTD seems like the clearly greater artistic achievement—which is what we're supposed to be awarding, right? It's artfully made, intellectually stimulating, and emotionally complex. CODA is heartwarming, yes (something TPOTD is decidedly not), and it offers a perspective not often seen in movies like this, but it's also fairly shallow, incredibly predictable, and stylistically rather generic. I honestly can't fathom how it has suddenly become the favorite over the past few weeks. But I did like it! And I honestly can't say that I "liked" TPOTD—again, it's often very slow and although it is emotionally complex, it's also not emotionally resonant like CODA is. CODA just got me in the feels more, even though I knew exactly what it was doing and where it was going. All that said, I gave both of these movies the exact same score when I rated them on Letterboxd: four stars. So I honestly won't really care too much either way when one of them beats the other tonight—even though TPOTD seems more like the "right" winner to me.

But this is no Roma versus Green Book. No, this is more like The Artist versus The Descendants in 2011—two perfectly fine motion pictures that will be almost promptly forgotten after the ceremony. Or if you think CODA and TPOTD have a bit more staying power, then you can look to the next year when Argo beat out Lincoln. I'll even give you The Shape of Water versus Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri in 2017. All of which is to say there's not really much at stake here, unlike Moonlight versus La La Land in 2016 or even Parasite versus 1917 in 2019.

But I do have to make a prediction here, I suppose. As it usually is, it's between head (TPOTD) and heart (CODA)—although you could easily flip head and heart there. But you know what I mean. I think. Okay, I'm stalling here. Probably incorrectly, I'm going to go with my head and saying that The Power of the Dog withstands the late charge from CODA and wins here. CODA has ZERO nominations outside of the major categories, while TPOTD has five. That has to mean something, right? Right? I'm more than prepared to be wrong here, though. I'll be a little annoyed, but that will pass—just like CODA from people's heads in a month or two.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Dune, 2) Drive My Car, 3) Nightmare Alley, 4) The Tragedy of Macbeth, 5) Licorice Pizza, 6) The Power of the Dog, 7) CODA, 8) Belfast, 9) King Richard, 10) West Side Story

Now, it's time for the LIGHTNING ROUND for the rest of the categories, including several that, inexplicably, won't be part of the main telecast. Just a horrendous decision that I fervently hope is reversed next year.

Best International Feature Film

Drive My Car (Japan) – directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi

I've only seen this and The Worst Person in the World, but both are excellent. The Academy can't go wrong with either choice. That said, this is the clear betting favorite.

My Non-Existent Vote: Drive My Car

Best Animated Film

Encanto – directed by Jared Bush and Byron Howard

I've only seen this and Raya and the Last Dragon (which I didn't love), although I did want to see the rest. This is also the betting favorite, although The Mitchells vs. The Machines wouldn't shock me.

My Non-Existent Vote: Soul

Best Documentary Feature

Summer of Soul – directed by Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson

I think I've only seen like five films nominated in this category this century—and two of them were by Michael Moore. So, yeah, not a documentary guy. Let's go with the betting favorite again here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Short

The Queen of Basketball – directed by Ben Proudfoot

Obviously, I didn't see any of these either. There doesn't seem to be a real consensus among pundits here, but this, Audible, and Lead Me Home seem to be in contention. Let's go betting favorite again.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Animated Short

Robin Robin – directed by Dan Ojari and Mikey Please

The animated shorts were SO. BAD. this year. Just awful. This nothingburger about cutesy animals seems to be the frontrunner. The only one I liked was The Windshield Wiper so, uh, go that one.

My Non-Existent Vote: The Windshield Wiper

Best Live Action Short

The Long Goodbye – directed Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed

These were better than the animated ones, but not nearly as good as last years' nominees. This extended music video was just okay, but it seems to be the frontrunner. I liked Ala Kachuu or Please Hold more.

My Non-Existent Vote: Ala Kachuu

Best Original Score

Hans Zimmer – Dune

This is between Zimmer's Dune score and Jonny Greenwood's TPOTD score. I actually like Greenwood's score better, but Zimmer should take home his first Oscar since 1994 (The Lion King!).

My Non-Existent Vote: Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song

"No Time to Die" – Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell (from No Time to Die) 

This might've been Lin-Manuel Miranda's EGOT, but they nominated the wrong song! No, not "Bruno," but ""Surface Pressure," the true jam from Encanto. Instead, look for a Bond win.

My Non-Existent Vote: "No Time to Die"

Best Cinematography

Greig Fraser – Dune

Although Fraser won the ASC award, I think Ari Wegner has a real shot for TPOTD. She'd be the first female winner, which is a helluva narrative. She'd also get my vote—TPOTD is a *gorgeous* film.

My Non-Existent Vote: Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog

Best Editing

Joe Walker – Dune

Okay, Dune likely isn't winning *all* of the technical awards as widely projected. This could be one where it falls short, as Pamela Martin beat Walker out for the ACE. Sticking with Dune, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum – tick, tick... BOOM!

Best Production Design

Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune

Another technical category where Dune is the frontrunner. The most likely spoiler is Nightmare Alley, which seems to be its only real shot at an award. That wouldn't surprise me, but going with Dune again.

My Non-Existent Vote: Vermette and Sipos

Best Costume Design

Jenny Beavan – Cruella

Okay, here is a technical category where Dune isn't favored. Hmmm, I wonder if the movie that takes place in the fashion world will win the award for Best Costume Design?

My Non-Existent Vote: Beavan

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Well, it certainly had the most makeup and hairstyling. I actually thought all the hair/makeup was pretty distracting—and I know that Bakker was known for her hair and makeup. This should be an easy win.

My Non-Existent Vote: Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon – Cruella

Best Sound

Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett – Dune

Maaaybe No Time to Die or West Side Story have an outside shot here, but this should be another technical award Dune takes home. It's especially worthy here—the shields! the battles! the worms!

My Non-Existent Vote: Ruth, Mangini, Green, Hemphill, and Bartlett

Best Visual Effects

Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer – Dune

Like I mentioned above, Dune is a -3500 favorite here. It's also easily the most impressive of the nominees, although both Marvel movies are very good, too. But Dune's SFX were just incredible.

My Non-Existent Vote: Lambert, Myles, Connor, and Nefzer

I did just okay last year, going 17/23, with 6/8 in the major categories (missing both Actor and Actress). I'd be happy with a repeat performance this year. I have truly no clue what will happen in Actress and Picture, and I'm sure Dune won't win as many technical categories as I'm predicting. There will also be at least 1-2 shockers that I didn't even consider. Should be an interesting performance, to say the least. Looking forward to it, even if I'm not super invested in the outcome of most races. Another awards season almost in the books!

A Good Year for Popcorn: My 2021 Fake Oscars

At this time last year, I wrote extensively about the impact of the pandemic on my own movie watching habits, as well as its impact on the film industry in general. Since then, one thing hasn't changed, but one thing very much has. We're still in the middle of a pandemic, but... the movies are back, baby! Look no further than the nearly $2B box office for Spider-Man: No Way Home, somehow the sixth-highest grossing film of all time even given the pandemic. The rousing reaction it garnered from a packed house on opening night is one of the best moviegoing experiences I can remember in a long time. But still... we're in the middle of a pandemic. So there are mixed feelings for sure. I'm glad movie theaters seem to have survived the worst of the pandemic (for now... streaming platforms are still a major threat), but those packed houses are probably a small part of why it is still ongoing. But that's a bigger conversation than I'm trying to have right now.

Instead, it's time to hand out some fake awards with the real Oscars nearly upon us. I'll be honest: 2021 was one of the weaker years for movies in quite some time. In fact, it might be the weakest year since I started tracking every movie I watch on Letterboxd in 2015. (Last year is probably the runner-up.) And the actual Oscar slate is incredibly blah. (More on that soon.) There is usually a good bit of crossover between the actual field and mine; this year, there is only maybe one or two nominees in common in most categories. So this should be interesting—I really went outside the usual awards-fare-type box this year and embraced popcorn movies even more than I normally do in this space. But enough preamble, let's get into to! We'll start, as always, with the supporting categories. (Be forewarned: Probable spoilers incoming.)

Gold = winner

^ = nominated for a real Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Anders Danielsen Lie – The Worst Person in the World

Toby Huss – Copshop

Luke Kirby – No Man of God

Troy Kotsur – CODA^

Jeffrey Wright – The French Dispatch

Only one actual Oscar nominee made my field here: presumed frontrunner Kotsur. Other than J.K. Simmons, I don't have any major issues with the other three actual nominees: Jesse Plemons, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Ciarán Hinds. Plemons and one-time frontrunner Smit-McPhee both delivered strong performances in The Power of the Dog, but I can't say I found myself continuing to think about their performances like the ones who made my field. Hinds was immensely likeable in Belfast and he's long been a favorite character actor of mine, but his role was rather small and his performance was rather one-note. (He played that note very well, though.) As for Simmons... I just don't understand why he was nominated. Just an unforgettable performance by an actor everyone likes (which probably explains the nom). But on to my field. (Going to go through each category alphabetically, which I haven't usually done in the past.)

• After watching the outstanding The Worst Person in the World, I was shocked that Anders Danielsen Lie hadn't got more awards buzz. He did win the National Society of Film Critics Award for Best Supporting Actor, but got bupkis from other critical or industry awards bodies. It's a shame, because he's incredible in this—eliciting both loathing and empathy from other characters and the audience alike, often within the same scene. He's apparently in several other films that have been on my list for a while (including the other two in the Oslo trilogy), and I'm excited to see more of his work.
• I mentioned Hinds as a favorite character actor above, and that also applies to Toby Huss, who I've been a fan of since Pete & Pete when I was a kid (even if I obviously didn't know who he was back then). Huss can play any role needed, and makes everything he's in better—from kid's movies/shows to ridiculous comedies to serious dramas. He's also the best part of the underrated Copshop as a loquacious, completely batshit hitman (duh, it's a Joe Carnahan movie). He's just so gleefully committed and I haven't been able to stop thinking about his performance since I first saw it. Not exactly real Oscar fare, but he gets a nom in these fake ones.
• The same goes for Luke Kirby in No Man of God, but for entirely different reasons. Whereas Huss creates a wholly original cinematic character, Kirby plays one of the most famous serial killers of all time, Ted Bundy. Performances based on real-life people usually don't do it for me, but Kirby is operating on another level here, undeniably magnetic and rising above the rest of the talented cast (including Elijah Wood). He captures Bundy's vileness, yes, but also the charisma ever batting heads with his banality, and even his vulnerability. It's a singular performance by an actor I wasn't at all familiar with before I watched the movie. Like Danielson Lie above, I can't wait to see more from him.
• I'll be honest: I almost left Troy Kotsur out of this field. (In favor of Willem Dafoe in No Way Home, if you can believe it. He's excellent, though.) But the more I thought about it, the more I just couldn't ignore the likely Oscar winner's performance. His Frank Rossi is confident, goofy, constantly horny, angry, scared for his family—all communicated in his facial expressions and mannerisms. You don't even need the subtitles for his signing to get this character. His win might get the biggest applause of the night on Oscar Sunday.
• I didn't love The French Dispatch overall—safe to say Wes Anderson's aesthetic has began to wear thin for me. And I still prefer "The Concrete Masterpiece" overall to the Jeffrey Wright-led "The Private Dining Room of the Police Commissioner," but damn it if Wright isn't sensational in it as famed writer Roebuck Wright. (Say that five times fast.) Wright is another guy who improves everything he's in, from Wes Anderson to Bond to Batman. And that's just in the last year. His wry narration and amused bemusement are the true highlight of the movie. I was a bit hard on his segment on Letterboxd, but Wright's performance stuck with me well after the fact.

Huss and Kotsur were the final two names in the field, while Danielsen Lie and Wright were both legitimate contenders who came on late (I only saw their films in the past couple months). But as I suspected when I first saw No Man of God, Luke Kirby was the easy choice for the winner here. I practically bolted upright on my couch when he was first introduced, and he had me rapt every time he was on screen thereafter. Just a scary-good performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos

Caitriona Balfe – Belfast

Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter^

Rebecca Ferguson – Dune

Gaby Hoffmann – C'mon C'mon

Only one nominee in common with the actual field here as well. The one who came closest to making my field was Kirsten Dunst. I like her a lot as an actress, but I don't think The Power of the Dog was anywhere hear her best work (probably Melancholia, or maybe Marie Antoinette). Aunjanue Ellis was good in King Richard, but biopics just don't do it for me and her and Will Smith were doing two different things with their performances, which just didn't work. I'll admit I just didn't see it with Ariana DeBose in West Side Story—good, yes, but shoo-in Oscar winner? I must have missed something (it probably doesn't help that I didn't care for the movie). And, hoo boy, Judi Dench over the other Belfast actress I nominated is as big of a whiff as you'll ever see from the Academy. Just a head-scratcher. She's basically a non-entity except for a scene or two. Moving on.

• It's not nearly as big of a whiff, but I think the Academy definitely overlooked Nina Arianda in Being the Ricardos. Nicole Kidman is.... fine (in the sense that a fine Kidman performance is still very good), but I thought Arianda stole the show every time she was on screen. Kidman's performance was that kind of Streep-ian Acting where you can see the performative gears turning, whereas Arianda's performance felt more spontaneous and natural. Probably something to do with Arianda's theatrical background. Kidman's performances don't often have this quality, but do more often than not in the ones she gets nominated for. I didn't mean to make this more about Kidman, but Arianda really, really good in this just-okay movie.
• Speaking of the wrong actress getting nominated for a movie, I was *shocked* that the Academy went with Judi Dench over Caitriona Balfe. (Well, not too shocked; it is the Academy, after all.) Balfe carries the entire movie on her shoulders as the emotional and narrative center of Branagh's otherwise fairly toothless crowd-pleaser. She completely carries Jamie Dornan in their scenes and outshines Dench in every conceivable facet. Plus the child performances are nothing special, so she elevates basically the entire cast and just nails every scene. Senseless that she wasn't nominated. Senseless.
• I first really noticed Jessie Buckley (no relation) in 2020's I'm Thinking of Ending Things. She was the best part of a film I otherwise hated. I guess she was in Judy, but I have basically no memory of that one, and I recognized her after the fact in Chernobyl. And now here she is as the only actual Oscar nominee in my field for her stormy yet tender performance as the younger version of Olivia Colman's character in The Lost Daughter. In the work of hers I've seen, there is absolutely no shred of pretense or actorly distance, and she almost assuredly has a gold statue coming her way in a few years.
• Rebecca Ferguson was the last name in my field, barely ahead of such names as Milena Smit (Parallel Mothers) and Reika Kirishma (Drive My Car). She was the true standout of Dune, a movie more renowned for its technical merits than its performances. Lady Jessica is a complicated character—concubine but not wife, fiercely protective yet kind of afraid of her son, and, well, a space witch. But Ferguson grounds her, makes her vulnerably human—but also more than that with her ethereal aura and mesmerizing eyes. (VFX helped there, I'm sure.) She commands your presence even when sharing the screen with Oscar Isaac, one of the most charismatic actors around, and also Timothée Chalamet.
• I just started HBO's winning time, and Gaby Hoffman is great in it as an exasperated, chain-smoking accountant. But she's even better in Mike Mills's superb latest, C'mon C'mon. She entrusts the care of her son to her brother, played by Joaquin Phoenix, while she tends to her mentally unwell estranged husband. Other than a few early scenes, most of her scenes consist of phone calls between her and Phoenix—not exactly fertile ground for sensational acting. But this is Mike Mills we are talking about here, and his script gives Hoffman everything she needs to truly shine, portraying a mother's love, exhaustion, anger, fear, and amusement. All in the same scene, and often a single line or two of dialogue. Impressive stuff, and deserving of more recognition.

The only two names in real consideration were Hoffman and Balfe. They were head and shoulders above any other supporting female performances this year. Hoffman matched Joaquin Phoenix (for my money our best working actor right now) beat for beat, which is no mean feat. But Caitriona Balfe, to me, had to basically carry the entire movie, so she gets the nod here for her magnificent work.

BEST ACTOR

Daniel Craig – No Time to Die

Andrew Garfield – tick, tick... BOOM!^

Dev Patel – The Green Knight

Joaquin Phoenix – C'mon C'mon

Simon Rex – Red Rocket

Yep, just one actual nominee made my field here as well. The actual field isn't terrible, per se, but it's also not terribly impressive. I'm definitely a Will Smith fan, but I just don't see it for his King Richard performance. It's shameless awards-bait Acting, but it's looking like it worked. Denzel was much better in Joel Coen's Macbeth adaptation, but he's "just" very good. Cumberbatch was solid in Dog, but I also never forgot I was watching Benedict Cumberbatch at any point. (Bonus points for a glance at his, uh, cumberbatch, though.) Bardem just seems like an "Eh, fuck it, he's a former winner" nomination; he's nothing special. Let's see who made my field.

• There are countless examples of people getting Oscar nominations or wins for performances that weren't necessarily for the actual movies they were in. Think Sylvester Stallone in Creed or Denzel for Training Day. Those were kind of "lifetime achievement" situations. I decided to embrace that a little bit and give Daniel Craig a nomination for his Bond finale. I don't know if it was actually one of the five best male acting performances of the year, but it was kind of a weak year and he was absolutely better than he had any need to be in a movie that kind of deconstructed and demystified Bond a little bit. He played Bond as a human—a wounded, flawed, real human. It really worked for a movie I liked a lot more than I was expecting to.
• The one nominee I agreed with the Academy on is Andrew Garfield for his lively, touching performance in tick, tick... BOOM!, a movie I didn't expect to like *at all*. My aversion to musicals is well documented at this point, and my eyes were rolling HARD at the first few scenes. But I was gradually won over by Garfield's obvious dedication to the material and the vigor with which he threw himself into the movie. His excellent singing didn't hurt, either. This movie could have easily gotten preachy or hagiographic, but Garfield (and director Lin-Manuel Miranda) kept it grounded.
• I considered both Oscar Isaac in The Card Counter and Dev Patel for The Green Knight for my last spot. (Craig was always getting in.) Isaac was absolutely worthy for his card shark convict going through a crisis of conscience (fun with alliteration!). But I ultimately went with Patel for his take on Sir Gawain, the mythic figure Patel turns into a figure as complicated as Isaac's ex-soldier haunted by Abu Ghraib. (The Card Counter is seriously wild.) Patel's Gawain is a noble coward, a courageous scion, a weary seeker, and Patel imbues him with endless wonder and pathos. His final scene with the titular Green Knight is one of the finest of the year. Surprised he didn't get any awards buzz at all. But he surely has another nomination or two in his future.
• As I said above, Joaquin Phoenix is my pick for the finest actor working right now in the wake of Daniel Day-Lewis's retirement. Gun to my head, his performance in The Master is the best of this young century. He's not quite on that level (obviously) in C'mon C'mon, but he's still incredible as a childless uncle who takes in his sister's son on a cross-country trip. He's clueless, he's frustrated, he's he's tired (so tired), but he's also joyful and awed and ever empathetic. It's a tender performance, one that's several measures better than the one he won for in Joker. Up next? An Ari Aster horror-comedy and a Napoleon Bonaparte biopic by Ridley Scott. Color me excited.
• I knew as soon as I walked out of Red Rocket that Simon Rex—yes, former MTV VJ Simon Rex—would make this field for his loathsome, loquacious fading pornstar Mikey Saber. His Mikey is a raging narcissist, an unself-aware clown, and a remorseless sexual deviant, yet Rex's undeniable charisma almost has you rooting for him. (Almost.) As almost the only professional actor in the cast (per usual for Sean Baker), Rex has to both be the movie star and play off the largely amateur cast. He excels at both, radiating that star charisma at all times, yet also meshing seamlessly with his castmates. It's a truly unique performance. I'd be surprised if Rex has another one like this in him, but you never know.

Garfield, Phoenix, and Rex were all seriously considered here, and I truly went back and forth on them all even as I wrote this section. It eventually came down to Garfield and Rex (all due respect to Phoenix). Both were surprising in their own way: Garfield for being in a musical, and Rex for being Rex. But Simon Rex's achievement was just a little greater, so he takes the fake trophy.

BEST ACTRESS

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter^

Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers^

Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza

Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World

Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Kate

The real Best Actress field is... interesting. There's the two nominees also in my field, and then three of the better actresses working today: Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart. I talked about Kidman above, and Stewart made the longlist for my field. (She was great; the movie and its direction, not so much.) Chastain... yeah. I'm a fan. Thought she was robbed in 2013, loved her in stuff like Molly's Game and Ava in recent years. But, man... she was bad in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Just a totally ill-conceived project from top to bottom. An empty pantomime. Will be disappointing if she wins. There's no such possibility here, thankfully.

• The Academy did get a couple things right, though. One is, as usual, Olivia Colman. She's got a win for The Favourite and a nomination for The Father under her belt already. Now, she gets a more-than-deserving nomination for another "The" movie. She's tremendous in The Lost Daughter—kind of bumbling, kind of sympathetic, but definitely something a little off. She brings her character's history/subtext up to just below the surface—you know there's something more to her character, but not quite what. It's a fine line to walk, and a lesser actress couldn't have pulled it off, but Colman nails it. I think she's still got an outside shot to win the real deal, and she'd certainly be deserving of a second statue in four years.
• Penélope Cruz is another former multiple nominee and winner—although she hasn't been acknowledged by the Academy since 2009. (To be fair, she's mostly been in paycheck projects since then.) But her first lead role in a Pedro Almodóvar film since Volver predictably resulted in another Oscar nomination. A win this time isn't entirely out of the question, either (this category is WIDE open.) She's a delight in Parallel Mothers—a seemingly ecstatic single mother-to-be, a career woman committed to raising her baby alone. Of course, it isn't as simple as all that, and Cruz capably handles each and every twist and turn Almodóvar throws her. I'll be fervently rooting for either her or Colman to win the real thing.
• All right, some new names. In the case of Alana Haim, a really new name—Licorice Pizza is her first movie, much less her first leading role. Of course, she's fantastic in Haim, but it's still a big step up to go from a critically acclaimed pop-rock band to a leading role in a Paul Thomas Anderson movie. Okay, it's not PTA's best by a longshot (I'm in the minority for thinking it's just okay), but Haim is stellar, a cynical, sarcastic whirlwind, a quarter-life crisis brought to vibrant life. I don't know if this was just a one-off (her family apparently has a history with PTA; hence the casting), but I'd absolutely be intrigued were she to pursue an acting career.
• Renate Reinsve was a *totally* new name to me. (I'm not too up on Norwegian cinema.) But wow, she just floored me in The Worst Person in the World. I'd heard good things, was expecting to like it, but she's just dynamite, a performance that's so obviously masterful that it's inconceivable that she got basically no recognition after "only" winning Best Actress at Cannes. She takes a rather tired archetype—the wayward 20-something woman—and shades it with rich nuance and refreshing unpredictability. She's a true marvel and I wish she had a more robust filmography to wade into. But hopefully this leads to many more big roles.
• Like the Craig pick above, I kind of wanted to earmark a spot for a surprisingly good performance in a popcorn movie. Just wasn't a super-strong year for leading performances, I suppose. I really though about going with Alexis Louder in Copshop (mentioned above)—was really impressed with what I saw from her in one of her first major roles. But I had to go with Ramona Flowers herself in Kate, perhaps the movie that surprised me the most in 2021. Mary Elizabeth Winstead was really, really good in a role that I've grown quite tired of in recent years: lady hitman (sorry, hitwoman). This movie could have easily gone sideways—the normally bankable Woody Harrelson is *awful*, and the typical child actor supporting character is actually handled really well. But Winstead just completely sells the character—her Kate is just so genuine and believable. This is a Net Flick that deserved more of an audience.

There are two actual Oscar nominees—and former winners!—in this field, but they actually weren't really considered. The Worst Person in the World was the final film I saw of the nominees in this category, but Renate Reinsve was an easy call. Just baffling that she wasn't a contender in the actual Oscars. Curious as to what her career holds from here on out.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Sean Baker – Red Rocket

Anders Thomas Jensen – Riders of Justice

Mike Mills – C'mon C'mon

Guy Ritchie, Marn Davies, and Ivan Atkinson – Wrath of Man

Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt – The Worst Person in the World^

Here we go—only one nominee from the Oscars here despite combining two categories into one. I know adaptation is its own beast (masters in screenwriting here), but I just can't in good conscience nominate an adaptation over an original work. That said, the adapted screenplays this year were better than in the typical year, especially Dune and Drive My Car. I was surprisingly actually much less impressed with the original screenplay nominees this year. It's a stretch to call a script like King Richard (rooted in actual events) truly original, Belfast was kind of a nothingburger, and Don't Look Up and Licorice Pizza were both highly flawed. But this was a *great* year for screenwriting; I just wish the Academy had nominated some of the following films.

• I don't know what Sean Baker has to do to earn Academy recognition, but evidently it's more than make painstakingly idiosyncratic, deeply humane films. His The Florida Project is one of my favorite films of the past decade. (That list might need a slight update, but I mostly stand by it.) It got a well deserved nomination for Willem Dafoe, but nothing else. Red Rocket isn't quite the same caliber, but it's another coyly profound exploration of a community on the edges of American life—this time, it's South Texas pornstars. But really, it's about the sub-working-class dreamers in any forgotten corner of America. Maybe Baker will get recognized for the next such marginal community he turns his attention toward. Although I doubt he cares.
• Maybe this is my inner screenwriting student, but Anders Thomas Jensen's script for Riders of Justice was just a clinic on theme. The Danish film opens with a tragic train accident that takes the life of Mads Mikkelsen's wife. He reacts with blind rage; his daughter who survives the accident tries to trace the random events that led to the accident before contemplating religion. A mathematician, Otto, who also survives, looks through an algorithmical lens. The script balances them all while balancing humor and real, raw emotion. It does drift into crowd-pleasing territory at the end, but that's okay—I wasn't not pleased.
• I've been a Mike Mills devotee for over a decade... during which time he's made exactly three films. But they're all marvelous, and all in my top-10 for their respective years. Beginners knocked me on my ass, 20th Century Women was even better, and, now C'mon C'mon is another absolute knockout. I may be squarely in the intended audience—like Joaquin Phoenix's character, I'm a childless uncle who unreservedly loves his nephew(s)—but, c'mon, you'd have to be heartless to not adore this story. The ending sequence—"I want to remember", "I'll remind you"—is just devastating. A major-scale moment in a movie that's mostly satisfied to remain in minor. And yet Mills couldn't even get a nomination this year. He has to have a win in his future, right? Giddy at the possibility.
• This category marks the first appearance of Wrath of Man, one of my very favorite movies of the year. (This won't be the last time this movie appears.) I almost nominated Jason Statham for Best Actor—he's great as a man with a checkered past on a mission. (Okay, the role is a bit clichéd.) He's very Statham-y in the best possible way, but it's nothing we haven't seen before. Holt McCallany and Josh Hartnett were also considered for Supporting. Instead, the movie's first nomination here belongs to the script from Guy Ritchie, Marn Davies, and Ivan Atkinson. It takes a familiar storyline—a father seeks vengeance for his son—and absolutely ratchets up the tone and scale. The brawny dialogue, the clever structure, cryptic chapter titles—I loved it all. Definitely not the typical Guy Ritchie joint I was expecting, but something much more remarkable.
• Worst Person was the final of these nominees I saw, and it took the spot that Dune had been holding here for most of the year. It's an impressive adaptation (I know what I said above) of a rather turgid yet complex novel. Good stuff, but it's not in the same league as what Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt accomplished in Worst Person. Like Wrath of Man above, Worst Person has a very familiar premise: the trials and tribulations of a twentysomething woman in the city. But Trier and Vogt also take a more elevated approach to the rom-com genre, breaking the film up into chapters, which are also titled creatively. And the city in question is Oslo, so the film easily avoids the Sex in the City–type clichés that plague American films, instead exploring heartbreak, incompatibility, mortality, and even free speech with poignancy and verve. One of the best films of the year.

This came down to Baker, who just missed out on a win in 2017, and Mills, who won in an absolutely stacked field in 2016. It was agonizingly close, but in the end I thought Mike Mills stuck the landing just a bit better—"I want to remember", "I'll remind you" just floored me, an absolute roundhouse of an emotional payoff. Like I said above, a statue just has to be forthcoming. (Not sure about Baker, who the Academy doesn't seem to have much affinity for.)

BEST DIRECTOR

Sean Baker – Red Rocket

Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car^

Guy Ritchie – Wrath of Man

Denis Villeneuve – Dune

James Wan – Malignant

You guessed it: only one real nominee here as well. None of the Academy's selections are egregious, and I'm in the minority for not thinking it's a particularly strong field. Likely winner Jane Campion came closest to a nomination here; Dog is absolutely an artistic achievement, even if it's a bit too languid for my tastes. None of the other actual nominees were considered—Belfast is basically a puff piece, Licorice Pizza just doesn't work as a cohesive film for me, and West Side Story is about as far outside my aesthetic wheelhouse as you can get (although Spielberg's mastery is evident). My nominees are... different. Let's see who I went with.

• Sean Baker appears both here and in Screenplay, where the winner of that category, Mike Mills, was left out of this field. He was a tough omission, especially for his handling of child actor Woody Norman, but his creative hand was more felt in the script than in the direction of C'mon C'mon (and I'm not sure what choice to shoot in black and white really added). But as great as Baker's script was, he also had to direct a largely nonprofessional cast and build an entire movie around an immensely dislikable main character played by a former MTV personality. So, yeah, it's a pretty impressive directorial achievement. I think I might need to line up a Florida Project/Red Rocket double feature at some point soon (I've still only ever seen the former the once).
• The lone actual nominee in my field is Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. He was actually the last nominee to make the cut in a really tough call over Mills, David Lowery for The Green Knight, and Lin-Manuel Miranda for tick, tick... BOOM! But I went with Hamaguchi for a couple reasons. One is to also acknowledge his writing—the script he co-wrote was one of my final few cuts in that category. But I also wanted a chance to write a little bit about Drive My Car, his adaptation of the Haruki Murakami short story. Murakami is my favorite writer of all time, and Car is about as pure a distillation of his style and philosophy as you're likely to see on screen. It's a bit overlong and does meander a bit, but it all builds to a stunningly profound climax that borrows from "Kino," another story in the same collection as "Drive My Car," and maybe my favorite Murakami short story. Powerful work that I'm glad the Academy recognized.
• Two of the other names on this list had no shot at Academy recognition. One is Guy Ritchie for the tense, brooding Wrath of Man. I hadn't so much as seen a trailer (I try to avoid trailers these days, actually) when I walked into the theater, and I was expecting another fun gangster picture like The Gentlemen. Boy oh boy was I wrong—and glad to be. This is like nothing else in Ritchie's oeuvre, a menacing, unflinching dirge of a movie, an epic-scale story of brutal men with conflicting purposes. And every element in the movie works harmoniously to create this dark, brutal world—the writing, the score, the cinematography, the performances. The "Scorched Earth" chapter, especially, is about as good as filmmaking gets. I truly hope Ritchie has more in this vein in him.
• Denis Villeneuve was pretty righteously snubbed for an Oscar nomination (Hamaguchi or maybe even PTA likely took his spot). He'll likely have to wait for Part Two for his second Best Director nomination. Instead, he gets his third nomination from me (after Sicario in 2015 and Arrival in 2016) for the jaw-dropping Dune. The story and performances are very good for the most part, but the visuals and world-building are up there with the likes of Jurassic Park and Avatar—a paradigm-shifting leap forward in what cinematic technology is capable of. I was totally enthralled watching this new world unfold on the big screen, so much so that Dune sat in the #1 spot on my list for much of the year. It does lose a bit on the small screen, and the final act does somewhat drag, but it's still a towering achievement no matter the size of the screen. Stoked for Part Two.
• The last name here is a true wild card: James Wan, the horror auteur behind the Saw and Conjuring franchises who also moonlights as a blockbuster helmsman (Furious 7, Aquaman and the forthcoming sequel). He's an incredibly versatile director who is no stranger to "Holy shit!" moments (think the ending of Saw), cinematic mayhem (the Abu Dhabi sequence in Furious 7), and absolute absurdity (when Ocean Master says his own name in Aquaman). Well, Malignant, his latest horror movie and possible social experiment, has all three in spades. It's a completely batshit mashup of Conjuring-esque haunted house shenanigans; gloriously corny melodrama; nasty, visceral gore; and ludicrous plot twists. It shouldn't work, but Wan's singular vision simply wills it to, forcing all these disparate elements to come together in riotous, can't-look-away ways. The last half-hour alone is a marvel to behold. Watch it with a few beers if you're not squeamish. (Or several more beers if you are.) You won't—well, you might actually regret it. But I didn't.

Unlike several of the other categories, there wasn't much of a competition here—Guy Ritchie easily takes the fake statue here for directing my favorite film of the year, as you'll see below (and, well, in the image at the top of the post as well). That's now two years in a row that a popcorn film took my last spot, after Tenet last year. Ritchie's filmography is maybe even stranger than Wan's, and I'm genuinely curious to see what he does next.

BEST PICTURE

Below are my top 10 movies of 2021, counting down from 10 to 1. I've already said my piece about most of these movies (and I'll include links to my reviews on Letterboxd, where I write a short review for every movie I watch), but I'll add some brief thoughts afterward.

tick, tick... BOOM! | Letterboxd Review

Malignant | Letterboxd Review

Drive My Car^ | Letterboxd Review

The Worst Person in the World | Letterboxd Review

No Time to Die | Letterboxd Review

Red Rocket | Letterboxd Review

C'mon C'mon | Letterboxd Review

Spider-Man: No Way Home | Letterboxd Review

Dune^ | Letterboxd Reviews

Wrath of Man | Letterboxd Reviews

• The top nine were all pretty easy calls, but picking the tenth nominee here was really, really tough. It was between BOOM!, The Green Knight, and actual Best Picture nominee Nightmare Alley. I went back and forth (and forth and back), but finally settled on BOOM! just because of how much it surprised me. I knew I would like Knight and Alley, but BOOM! seemed to come out of nowhere to me. I might look back in a month or a year and want to change the order, but this is where I landed here on Oscars eve.
• Pretty good balance of popcorn movies and critical/arthouse fare—five of each by my count. As it should be. The Oscars might have a relatively weak slate, but it's been a good year for popcorn movies as we make our way out of the pandemic.
• I knew that Wrath of Man had overtaken Dune for the top spot when I was talking movies with a friend and said, unprompted, "Wrath of Man, my favorite movie of the year..." Sometimes, it's that simple.
• The one movie here that wasn't nominated anywhere above is Spider-Man: No Way Home. As I mentioned, I almost went with Willem Dafoe in Best Supporting Actor, and the screenplay very nearly made my field. Yet here it is at #3 in my top-10. Why? Well, I'm an avowed Marvel fan, and it's one of the top two or three MCU movies. (Maybe even #2; I have to let it marinate.) Plus, like I said at the beginning, seeing it in theaters on opening night was one of the movie highlights of the year for me. It's chic right now to hate on the MCU—and, look, I get it, I'm no chin-bearded fanboy; I'm even Team Scorsese on this. But these movies are the closest thing we have to a monoculture, a shared experience that you can talk about with your friend across the country on a Zoom chat, with your uncle at the next family barbecue, with your niece or your nephew or your son or your daughter. Yes, they are these monolithic, overly manufactured pieces of pop culture, multiplex seat-fillers, but—and hear me out on this—it's okay to enjoy them! They can even be good! And if you're too cynical or highfalutin that you can't get at least a superficial kick out of a movie that successfully weaves together three different iterations of a franchise, boy, I don't know what to tell you. (I actually do kind of get it; franchise fatigue is real. But still.) I actually do think it was deserving of a Best Picture nomination, certainly more than film festival pap like Belfast and CODA. If you're going to nominate crowd pleasers, shouldn't you at least acknowledge the movie that pleased the most crowds? (Don't get me started on the "Oscar Fan Favorite" crap, though. Just a dumb idea.) Oh well, no one is losing sleep (or dollars) over an MCU movie not getting nominated for an Oscar. Certainly not me. Just interesting to consider when a charming nothing of a movie like CODA that most people watched from their couch might be on the doorstep of a Best Picture win. And the Academy wonders why Oscars ratings are falling.

Anyway, rant over. Time to bang out my Oscar predictions before the ceremony. As always, thanks for reading (even though I mostly write these for myself). Even though I don't actually like popcorn, I'm looking forward to another year of watching movies in theaters, surrounded by the smell and crunch of popcorn.

2022 Oscar Nominations Predictions

 

So are we getting the Oscars in late March every year now? If so, that's fine with me—gives me more time to get caught up with the awards contenders, many of which don't come to Phoenix until after the New Year anyway. That said, the number of awards contenders on streaming platforms is ever increasing, and I haven't gotten around to seeing several of them because, well, because they're just not that high on my personal list. I'm never in a rush to see awards-baity fare like King Richard and Being the Ricardos (even though I generally love Will Smith and Aaron Sorkin), nor Sundace-y indies like CODA. Unless they're nominated for an Oscar, that is. I might get around to them otherwise eventually, but they're never at the top of my list. Then there are the musicals like West Side Story and Tick, Tick... Boom!, which I'd prefer to avoid altogether. I always have a shortlist of films I hope don't get nominated that I celebrate almost as much as the films I actually do like getting nominated. (I'm probably screwed on both of those films this year, though.) Anyway, here's my crack at predicting the nominees for this year's field, the year after last year's kind of ho-hum Nomadland win. Nominees are listed in assumed order of likelihood.

^ = early winner prediction
* = haven't seen it

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog^

Sian Heder – CODA*

Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter

Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth, and Jon Spaihts – Dune

Ryusuke Hamaguchi and and Takamasa Oe – Drive My Car*

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Other contenders:

Tony Kushner – West Side Story*

Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan – Nightmare Alley

One category in, and it's a toughie. Campion and Heder seem incredibly safe, but the next four seem very tightly packed. I can see any of them missing out—this is Gyllenhaal's first written feature, blockbusters like Dune don't always do well in artistic categories, Drive My Car is a three-hour Japanese film, and West Side Story didn't do well at the box office. (I haven't seen Drive My Car yet myself, but I'm a huge Murakami fan so it's high on my list.) It's easiest to imagine Drive My Car missing out, but I think it might sneak in this year given the Academy's ever-diversifying voting body. I have the underperforming and -seen West Side Story barely missing the field—although it making it over Dune wouldn't shock me. If there were a true surprise, it would most likely come from Coen or del Toro/Morgan—not exactly surprising names, though.

Wishful thinking: Guy Ritchie, Marn Davies, and Ivan Atkinson – Wrath of Man, Chris McKenna and Erik Sommers – Spider-Man: No Way Home

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast^

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

Zach Baylin – King Richard*

Adam McKay and David Sirota – Don’t Look Up

Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos*

---

Other contenders:

Pedro Almodóvar – Parallel Mothers*

Mike Mills – C'mon, C'mon

Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

I'm hoping for some chaos here—this isn't a strong group of potential nominees. Belfast is charming but trite, Licorice Pizza doesn't really work for me (easily PTA's weakest script), and Don't Look Up's flaws are well documented. King Richard seems like a typical biopic, and even as a Sorkin fan I can't imagine Ricardos is his finest work. I could easily imagine either McKay/Sirota or Sorkin missing out (many seem to be tiring of them in general), but I don't know if I really see Almodóvar or Mills having the votes to secure a nomination. (I'm an avowed fan of both and would be thrilled. C'mon, C'mon is wonderful and I can't wait to see Mothers.) I think the WGA field sans Dispatch (meh—I'm also getting tired of Wes Anderson) in favor of the WGA-ineligible Belfast is the safest call. But I really think/hope Almodóvar or Mills sneaks in.

Wishful thinking: Sean Baker – Red Rocket, Anders Thomas Jensen – Riders of Justice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story^*

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Caitriona Balfe – Belfast

Ruth Negga – Passing*

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard*

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Other contenders:

Ann Dowd – Mass*

Judi Dench – Belfast

Marlee Matlin – CODA*

Rita Moreno – West Side Story*

Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley

Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

Have to cover a lot of bases here just because I have yet to see so many of these films. There seems to be a lot of consensus around the top five here, which is the WGA field minus Blanchett plus Ellis. But I'm seeing enough mentions of everyone in the "other contenders" area that I'm sure there will be a surprise. But it'll be at the expense of Negga or Ellis—the top three seem pretty safe. Having not seen the majority of these films, I can't add much, but Balfe would get my vote of the nominees I've seen. Dunst was quite good and is deserving of a nomination, as would be the tastefully named Buckley. I liked Nightmare Alley a good deal and Blanchett was good in it, but I'm not sure I saw it as awards-worthy. The WGA disagreed, but the Academy seems likely to deny her her eighth nomination. I'm thinking I'll hit 4/5 here.

Wishful thinking: Gaby Hoffmann – C'mon, C'mon, Rebecca Ferguson – Dune

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog^

Troy Kotsur – CODA*

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

Jared Leto – House of Gucci*

---

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

Mike Faist – West Side Story*

Jamie Dornan – Belfast

I'm the most confident in this field of five of the categories thus far. Don't see room for much in the way of surprises here. Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds seem like locks, and Cooper and Leto aren't too far behind. That said, I just don't see it with Cooper here—he's in the movie for like 10 minutes and is utterly inconsequential. He's not even the most memorable cameo! Gimme Sean Penn or, especially, Tom Waits over Cooper if we're nominating bit players from Licorice Pizza. I haven't seen Gucci, but I'm not a Leto fan, so I can't say I'd be disappointed to see him passed over. Plemons has been better, but he'd be a worthy enough replacement. Dornan was... fine. Haven't seen the musical. This is another mediocre group of nominees, but Smit-McPhee had a definite magnetism in Campion's film and I would have no complaints were he to win.

Wishful thinking: Ed Harris – The Lost Daughter, Luke Kirby – No Man of God

BEST ACTRESS

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter^

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci*

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos*

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye*

Jennifer Hudson – Respect*

---

Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers*

Kristen Stewart – Spencer*

Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza

So I've seen basically none of these films. I've seen Colman's film and she's more than deserving of a second Oscar. I'd be fine with a nomination for Haim, even though I don't *love* her movie. As for the rest... fuck it, I'm just going with the SAG nominees. That's a pretty impressive group of resumes. Kidman is one of the greatest actresses of all time, Hudson is a former winner, and Gaga and Chastain are former nominees. Cruz—another former winner—could surprise, likely at the expense of Chastain or Hudson. (Please let it be Hudson—no desire to watch another biopic.) There was a time when Stewart might have been considered the frontrunner here, but thus far in her career she hasn't been able to turn critical praise into awards nominations. I can't say I'd be looking forward to watching her film, though—Jackie left me quite cold, and Spencer seems like more of the same. I'm generally a big fan of hers, though. Anyway, I don't expect much drama here. Cruz over Hudson wouldn't even really be a surprise.

Wishful thinking: Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Kate

BEST ACTOR

Will Smith – King Richard^*

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick... Boom!*

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos*

---

Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

Peter Dinklage – Cyrano*

Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

Yep, going with the SAG nominees again. Just don't see any of the other nominees as having an especially strong case. Don't Look Up was FAR from Leo's best work, and I don't think many people have even seen Cyrano. I actually quite liked Cooper in Nightmare Alley, but I'm not sensing a big support base for that movie. As-is, the field looks fairly unimpressive—but of course, I haven't seen three of the top five. But none of them seem like my fare, especially since all three are performances based on real people, my least favorite kind of acting. Give me Denzel of this prospective field, I suppose, although his Macbeth is only perfunctorily very good—nothing transcendent. Would love a surprise nomination for Daniel Craig for his final turn as Bond, but momentum for that seems to have faded. Another yawner of a field.

Wishful thinking: Daniel Craig – No Time to Die, Joaquin Phoenix – C'mon, C'mon, Simon Rex – Red Rocket

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog^

Denis Villeneuve – Dune

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car*

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

---

Steven Spielberg – West Side Story*

This is a notoriously tough field to predict—even in a year like this where there are six clear contenders for five spots. I think the only one that's a lock is Campion—I could see any of the others missing out. But I suspect the final spot comes down to one of Branagh, Hamaguchi, and Spielberg. You could easily go chalk here and copy the DGA nominees, which would leave Hamaguchi out, but he is the exact kind of seemingly left-field nominee the director's branch has nominated in recent years. So I think he makes it in over... Spielberg, I guess? There just doesn't seem to be much fervor for his West Side Story remake, although I hear it is powerfully directed. Branagh missing out wouldn't be a shock either. I'll be most curious to see this field on Tuesday morning. (Also, I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone not on this list winds up being nominated. Just no idea who.)

Wishful thinking: Guy Ritchie – Wrath of Man, Sean Baker – Red Rocket

BEST PICTURE

The Power of the Dog^

Belfast

Dune

Licorice Pizza

King Richard*

CODA*

West Side Story*

Don’t Look Up

Tick, Tick... Boom!*

---

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Being the Ricardos*

Drive My Car*

House of Gucci*

Nightmare Alley

History tells us there will either be eight or nine nominees—we haven't seen the full 10 since 2010. I'm pretty confident in the top seven, and there's a glut of films I haven't seen right around that point, so there's a lot of guesswork going on here. But Richard, CODA, and Story are all the kinds of usual suspects here, and then Look is topical and Boom is industry-friendly. But then Coen/Shakespeare is a formidable combo, as is the Sorkin/Kidman/Bardem trio. Those are definite possibilities. And Parasite won only two years ago, so you can't count out a film like Drive. Don't feel too confident in the chances of Gucci or Alley, but I could see them having broad support, so you can't eliminate them. But this is looking like a showdown between The Power of the Dog and Belfast on Oscar night, which... yawn. Wouldn't be mad about either, but neither seems likely to go down in history—a Spotlight/Shape of Water type winner, if you will. Meh. Give me a ballsy, brainy, swing-for-the-fences blockbuster like Dune over those two humdrum prestige pictures any day—but especially on Oscar Sunday.

Wishful thinking: Wrath of Man, Spider-Man: No Way Home, No Time to Die

Finished a day early this year! (This was mostly written on Sunday night.) This past year wasn't exactly a powerhouse year for cinema, but I look forward to watching all the films nominated for these eight major categories once again, which is something I've done for a decade now. I think the last major category Oscar nominee I haven't seen is Mike Leigh's Another Year (nominated for Best Original Screenplay in 2011). We'll see if I can top last year's 37/44. Excited for tomorrow morning!