In my predictions last year, I wrote about how there didn't figure to be much drama at the ceremony. Nomadland won Best Picture and Best Director, as predicted, but Frances McDormand was a somewhat surprise winner for Best Actress, while Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor in a ceremony-ending shocker over the late Chadwick Boseman. (Still can't believe they didn't end with Best Picture.) So, yeah, definitely some drama.
I'm expecting even more this year. While several main categories seem like foregone conclusions, two massive ones are anybody's guess at this point: Best Actress and Best Picture itself. Plus many of the smaller/technical categories seem less settled than usual. This is as tough a ceremony to predict as I can remember. I don't typically fare well in my Oscar pool among friends, but I'm expecting to do even worse than usual. But at least the ceremony should be more exciting than last year's! Let's dive in to my predictions, starting with the supporting categories that don't actually seem to have much room for drama.
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Judi Dench – Belfast
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
There was a brief moment in time right after The Power of the Dog was first released when it seemed like Kirsten Dunst could win here, but then the Ariana DeBose train got rolling and it never really stopped. She won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and SAG awards and will almost certainly take home the Oscar tonight. She's quite good, but I must admit I don't understand why she's so far ahead of the other nominees. Nostalgia factor for the original film adaptation plays a big part, I'm sure. The tastefully named Buckley and Ellis are worthy nominees (as is Dunst), but Dench over her castmate Caitriona Balfe is just a baffling, egregious decision. Buckley might have had the best performance here, but I'd give my vote to Dunst if I had one.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Dunst, 2) Buckley, 3) Ellis, 4) DeBose, 5) Dench
Best Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
In both of these categories, the one-time frontrunner from TPOTD was overtaken by a now-prohibitive favorite from a different film. This time, it's CODA's Troy Kotsur who seems primed to win the statue that once seemed like Kodi Smit-McPhee's to lose. No complaints here—I do think Kotsur gives the best performance of this group. Hinds is a great character actor who I'm happy to see recognized (even if the actual performance isn't exactly anything amazing), and Plemons is worthy enough of a nominee. Simmons is like Dench in the category above—no idea what he's doing here, he's just coasting on likability and past plaudits.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Kotsur, 2) Smit-McPhee, 3) Hinds, 4) Plemons, 5) Simmons
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Ugh, this category is kind of maddening. Up until very recently, there was no clear frontrunner, with the various critic's societies and minor industry awards going several different direction. Kidman did win the Golden Globe, but that wasn't seen as especially predictive. Then Jessica Chastain won the Critics' Choice and SAG within the last month or so, and the race seems to have coalesced around her at this point. Two things about that: 1) I REALLY did not care for her performance in Eyes—it's basically cosplay/dressup, and 2) I don't actually think she's going to win tonight. But I have no idea who would win instead. Cruz seems to have gained a little momentum, and Colman shouldn't be counted out. And neither Kidman nor Stewart would truly shock me. But I'm just hedging my bet here and going with the favorite while hoping she doesn't actually win (even though I'm generally a fan! Just not this time).
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Cruz, 2) Colman, 3) Stewart, 4) Kidman, 5) Chastain
Best Actor
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick... Boom!
Will Smith – King Richard
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
All right, back to chalk. No one but Will Smith is winning this award. I know, I know—that's what everyone said about Boseman last year. But there's no Anthony Hopkins in this year's field. Cumberbatch lurks as the likeliest spoiler, but he's still a big longshot. Smith will go home with his first Oscar for a performance I wasn't all that enamored with. (But I generally don't go for biopics.) I thought Cumberbatch and, especially, Garfield and Washington were superior. Bardem is in the same boat as Dench and Simmons—he doesn't belong here. (Although his inclusion isn't as big a head-scratcher as the other two.)
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Garfield, 2) Washington, 3) Cumberbatch, 4) Smith, 5) Bardem
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe – Drive My Car
Sian Heder – CODA
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth – Dune
This is between CODA and TPOTD. In what could be a preview of the Best Picture finale, I expect CODA's Sian Heder to win here for her charming but lightweight crowd-pleaser. Campion has a shot, but with overall support for her film flagging a bit, it's tough to imagine her winning here as well as Best Director, which she should win handily. The rest of the nominees are all solid—this is a strong category for a change. (It's usually stuffy period pieces and literary adaptations.) Drive My Car or Dune are my favorites, but Maggie Gyllenhaal's first feature as a writer was excellent as well.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Dune, 2) Drive My Car, 3) The Lost Daughter, 4) The Power of the Dog, 5) CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Zach Baylin – King Richard
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Adam McKay and David Sirota – Don't Look Up
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World
Here's another tough one to predict. Belfast won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice, Licorice Pizza actually beat Belfast for the BAFTA, and Don't Look Up somehow won the SAG in spite of its decidedly mixed reception. I don't think it's a real contender here—nor King Richard or the outstanding Worst Person—so this figures to come down to two nominees with 0 wins in now 19 nominations between them. I suspect Paul Thomas Anderson will just edge out Kenneth Branagh, but I wouldn't bat an eye should the latter win. Neither would get my vote—both films fall firmly in the "good, not great" category for me—but I'm fine with either of them winning.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) The Worst Person in the World, 2) Licorice Pizza, 3) Belfast, 4) King Richard, 5) Don't Look Up
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Jane Campion winning here might be the biggest lock of the night. Oddsmakers have her as -3500 to win in this category, tied with Dune in Best Visual Effects for the biggest favorite of the night. To put that into perspective, none of the big favorites in the acting categories have better odds than -1600 (DuBose). So mark Campion down on your ballot as a more than worthy winner—TPOTD was certainly, er, powerful, even if a bit (okay, more than a bit) slow. My vote would easily go to Hamaguchi for successfully—and sensationally—adapting Haruki Murakami to the big screen. Both Anderson's and Branagh's movies were better written than directed, and although I didn't care for West Side Story (avowed musical hater here), Spielberg did direct the hell out of it.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Hamaguchi, 2) Campion, 3) Spielberg, 4) Anderson, 5) Branagh
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
This is being set up as CODA versus The Power of the Dog, as one-time contender Belfast has faded into also-ran status. West Side Story and Dune, respectively are the only other nominees with even a whiff of possibility. WSS is beloved by critics and industry insiders, but it was a box office disappointment, while Dune doesn't figure to be the first sci-fi movie to win Best Picture in spite of what is sure to be a bevy of technical awards tonight. The rest are just happy to be here, especially Nightmare Alley, the only Best Picture nominee without a nomination in another major category. I have no real issues with this field overall—they're all solid at worst. But this year probably won't be remembered as an especially great year in cinema, regardless of who wins.
A close race between two films like this should be exciting, but I just can't get that fired up about either film, honestly. TPOTD seems like the clearly greater artistic achievement—which is what we're supposed to be awarding, right? It's artfully made, intellectually stimulating, and emotionally complex. CODA is heartwarming, yes (something TPOTD is decidedly not), and it offers a perspective not often seen in movies like this, but it's also fairly shallow, incredibly predictable, and stylistically rather generic. I honestly can't fathom how it has suddenly become the favorite over the past few weeks. But I did like it! And I honestly can't say that I "liked" TPOTD—again, it's often very slow and although it is emotionally complex, it's also not emotionally resonant like CODA is. CODA just got me in the feels more, even though I knew exactly what it was doing and where it was going. All that said, I gave both of these movies the exact same score when I rated them on Letterboxd: four stars. So I honestly won't really care too much either way when one of them beats the other tonight—even though TPOTD seems more like the "right" winner to me.
But this is no Roma versus Green Book. No, this is more like The Artist versus The Descendants in 2011—two perfectly fine motion pictures that will be almost promptly forgotten after the ceremony. Or if you think CODA and TPOTD have a bit more staying power, then you can look to the next year when Argo beat out Lincoln. I'll even give you The Shape of Water versus Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri in 2017. All of which is to say there's not really much at stake here, unlike Moonlight versus La La Land in 2016 or even Parasite versus 1917 in 2019.
But I do have to make a prediction here, I suppose. As it usually is, it's between head (TPOTD) and heart (CODA)—although you could easily flip head and heart there. But you know what I mean. I think. Okay, I'm stalling here. Probably incorrectly, I'm going to go with my head and saying that The Power of the Dog withstands the late charge from CODA and wins here. CODA has ZERO nominations outside of the major categories, while TPOTD has five. That has to mean something, right? Right? I'm more than prepared to be wrong here, though. I'll be a little annoyed, but that will pass—just like CODA from people's heads in a month or two.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Dune, 2) Drive My Car, 3) Nightmare Alley, 4) The Tragedy of Macbeth, 5) Licorice Pizza, 6) The Power of the Dog, 7) CODA, 8) Belfast, 9) King Richard, 10) West Side Story
Now, it's time for the LIGHTNING ROUND for the rest of the categories, including several that, inexplicably, won't be part of the main telecast. Just a horrendous decision that I fervently hope is reversed next year.
Best International Feature Film
Drive My Car (Japan) – directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
I've only seen this and The Worst Person in the World, but both are excellent. The Academy can't go wrong with either choice. That said, this is the clear betting favorite.
My Non-Existent Vote: Drive My Car
Best Animated Film
Encanto – directed by Jared Bush and Byron Howard
I've only seen this and Raya and the Last Dragon (which I didn't love), although I did want to see the rest. This is also the betting favorite, although The Mitchells vs. The Machines wouldn't shock me.
My Non-Existent Vote: Soul
Best Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul – directed by Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson
I think I've only seen like five films nominated in this category this century—and two of them were by Michael Moore. So, yeah, not a documentary guy. Let's go with the betting favorite again here.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)
Best Documentary Short
The Queen of Basketball – directed by Ben Proudfoot
Obviously, I didn't see any of these either. There doesn't seem to be a real consensus among pundits here, but this, Audible, and Lead Me Home seem to be in contention. Let's go betting favorite again.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)
Best Animated Short
Robin Robin – directed by Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
The animated shorts were SO. BAD. this year. Just awful. This nothingburger about cutesy animals seems to be the frontrunner. The only one I liked was The Windshield Wiper so, uh, go that one.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Windshield Wiper
Best Live Action Short
The Long Goodbye – directed Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
These were better than the animated ones, but not nearly as good as last years' nominees. This extended music video was just okay, but it seems to be the frontrunner. I liked Ala Kachuu or Please Hold more.
My Non-Existent Vote: Ala Kachuu
Best Original Score
Hans Zimmer – Dune
This is between Zimmer's Dune score and Jonny Greenwood's TPOTD score. I actually like Greenwood's score better, but Zimmer should take home his first Oscar since 1994 (The Lion King!).
My Non-Existent Vote: Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song
"No Time to Die" – Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell (from No Time to Die)
This might've been Lin-Manuel Miranda's EGOT, but they nominated the wrong song! No, not "Bruno," but ""Surface Pressure," the true jam from Encanto. Instead, look for a Bond win.
My Non-Existent Vote: "No Time to Die"
Best Cinematography
Greig Fraser – Dune
Although Fraser won the ASC award, I think Ari Wegner has a real shot for TPOTD. She'd be the first female winner, which is a helluva narrative. She'd also get my vote—TPOTD is a *gorgeous* film.
My Non-Existent Vote: Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog
Best Editing
Joe Walker – Dune
Okay, Dune likely isn't winning *all* of the technical awards as widely projected. This could be one where it falls short, as Pamela Martin beat Walker out for the ACE. Sticking with Dune, though.
My Non-Existent Vote: Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum – tick, tick... BOOM!
Best Production Design
Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune
Another technical category where Dune is the frontrunner. The most likely spoiler is Nightmare Alley, which seems to be its only real shot at an award. That wouldn't surprise me, but going with Dune again.
My Non-Existent Vote: Vermette and Sipos
Best Costume Design
Jenny Beavan – Cruella
Okay, here is a technical category where Dune isn't favored. Hmmm, I wonder if the movie that takes place in the fashion world will win the award for Best Costume Design?
My Non-Existent Vote: Beavan
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Well, it certainly had the most makeup and hairstyling. I actually thought all the hair/makeup was pretty distracting—and I know that Bakker was known for her hair and makeup. This should be an easy win.
My Non-Existent Vote: Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon – Cruella
Best Sound
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett – Dune
Maaaybe No Time to Die or West Side Story have an outside shot here, but this should be another technical award Dune takes home. It's especially worthy here—the shields! the battles! the worms!
My Non-Existent Vote: Ruth, Mangini, Green, Hemphill, and Bartlett
Best Visual Effects
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer – Dune
Like I mentioned above, Dune is a -3500 favorite here. It's also easily the most impressive of the nominees, although both Marvel movies are very good, too. But Dune's SFX were just incredible.
My Non-Existent Vote: Lambert, Myles, Connor, and Nefzer
I did just okay last year, going 17/23, with 6/8 in the major categories (missing both Actor and Actress). I'd be happy with a repeat performance this year. I have truly no clue what will happen in Actress and Picture, and I'm sure Dune won't win as many technical categories as I'm predicting. There will also be at least 1-2 shockers that I didn't even consider. Should be an interesting performance, to say the least. Looking forward to it, even if I'm not super invested in the outcome of most races. Another awards season almost in the books!
No comments:
Post a Comment