2020 Redux?: My 2022 Oscars Predictions

Last year's Oscars were a strange beast. The ceremony itself was as controversial and memorable as it's ever been. Before the ceremony, the biggest controversy was the Academy deciding that several major awards, including Best Editing, wouldn't be televised. That ridiculous decision was thankfully reversed this year, so we'll see every award presented live. Then, of course, there was The Slap, perhaps the single most shocking moment in the history of the Oscars since Marlon Brando declining his Oscar for The Godfather.

But the actual winners themselves last year were utterly forgettable. CODA pulled off a minor upset in Best Picture over The Power of the Dog... and then promptly disappeared from relevancy. (And so did Dog, more or less.) None of the acting winners—Will Smith, Jessica Chastain, Troy Kotsur, Ariana DeBose—left any kind of cultural wake either. Just a thoroughly forgettable year as far as the actual films and performances go.

But as I wrote in my annual Fake Oscars post yesterday, we're a bit spoiled this year. No matter what happens, this will be a much more memorable slate of winners. If things go to plan, the (nearly) universally beloved Everything Everywhere All at Once—which clicked with both audiences and critics like few movies have in recent years—will snag several major awards and bring the house down. We also have potentially fascinating races in Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress with no real wrong answer possible. Of course, upsets do happen, and if something like All Quiet on the Western Front or The Fabelmans takes the top prize, well, that'll be memorable, too. (Let's just hope it doesn't come to that, though.)

So this will be a very interesting ceremony to handicap. It'll be tough to match last year's 20/23, when I missed only Best Picture (stupidly), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Animated Short (everyone usually misses at least one short), but I'll give it my best shot. Let's start with one of the trickier major categories.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau – The Whale

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

For a while there, Angela Bassett was the clear frontrunner, with Critics Choice and Golden Globes wins and a ton of general goodwill. But the other major precursors really muddled things, with Kerry Condon winning the BAFTA and Jamie Lee Curtis snagging the SAG. So it's really anyone's award for the taking amongst those three. (Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu are both clearly also-rans at this point.) There's no real consensus among prognosticators. Can Bassett fend off the other two as the perceived frontrunner? Will Curtis be tipped as a quasi–lifetime achievement award? Will Condon be the beneficiary of the perception that this category is the best way to reward Banshees? That last narrative makes the most sense to me, so I'll go with a minor upset and say Kerry Condon will take the statue. I'd be fine with her or Bassett, but I don't see the likeable Curtis as deserving, so it would be a little annoying if she won.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Condon, 2) Chau, 3) Bassett, 4) Hsu, 5) Curtis

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

This one is the easiest call of the major categories, and perhaps the only true lock—Ke Huy Quan will win here for his tender, funny work in his first major acting role in over two decades. This one was never really in doubt since the beginning of awards season, with Quan winning just about every precursor with the lone exception of the BAFTA, which, of course, went to one of the Inisherin boys (Barry Keoghan). I actually slightly prefer Brendan Gleeson's performance, but will be quite happy when Quan wins. As for the other two, Brian Tyree Henry was quite good, but I have a hard time understanding Judd Hirsch's inclusion—he's literally in the movie for less than 10 minutes. Surely Paul Dano's performance was more worthy?

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Gleeson, 2) Quan, 3) Henry, 4) Keoghan, 5) Hirsch

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Tár

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Okay, this one *should* go to Michelle Yeoh, but it's hardly a shoo-in. Yeoh does have the National Board of Review, the Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical), and the critical SAG, but Cate Blanchett can match the Globe (Drama) and add the Critics Choice and BAFTA (figures; she basically counts as British as an Aussie). There's at least a debate here, one that many Academy voters have surely had internally in the past few weeks. My personal preference is, barely, Blanchett, but I'll actually be fairly miffed if she does take it—she already has two statues and Yeoh's win would be so much more meaningful as the first Asian woman to win this major category. The gap in the technical merits of each performance is small enough that I'm more than willing to overlook it and earnestly root for Yeoh here, especially since we all know that Oscars aren't really bestowed for purely meritorious reasons. The other performances aren't really worth discussing in depth, but here's a few words—Ana de Armas did her absolute best in the face of misguided writing and direction, Andrea Riseborough played a stock character about as well as could be hoped, and Michelle Williams is one of my favorite working actresses but this performance did absolutely nothing for me.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Yeoh, 2) Blanchett, 3) de Armas, 4) Riseborough, 5) Williams

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Bill Nighy – Living

To me, the two best lead acting performances of 2022 are, by far, Paul Mescal and Colin Farrell. But, evidently, I was not consulted, so my opinion is sadly moot. So the actual race seems to be between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler, with Farrell as a horse so dark that it would be quite difficult to see it at night. Nighy gets a resume-padding courtesy nomination, while this is hopefully Mescal's first nomination of many. As with Bassett, Fraser has been the presumptive frontrunner for much of this awards season, nabbing the Critics Choice and SAG, along with a host of smaller trophies. But Butler won the Globe (Drama) and BAFTA and really seems to have a ton of momentum on his side of late. It really could go either way—Vegas has Fraser as the slight favorite at -160 with Butler not far off at +105. What to do? I think I'm going to play it safe, unlike Supporting Actress, and stick with Brendan Fraser. The narrative of him capping his comeback (briefly leaving acting after being groped by the head of the Golden Globes) with an Oscar  is just a great narrative, even if I prefer Butler's performance. (Plus, young men rarely win this category, and Butler is 31.) I won't be mad if I'm wrong, though—especially if Farrell somehow pulls off the shocker. Butler would make a fine winner, though.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Mescal, 2) Farrell, 3) Butler, 4) Fraser, 5) Nighy

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front

Kazuo Ishiguro – Living

Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie – Top Gun: Maverick

Sarah Polley – Women Talking

Women Talking is the nominal favorite here, but even with the WGA and Critics Choice, it's hardly a juggernaut. AQotWF is very much in play here after winning the BAFTA and NBR. I can't fathom why—it's at least least the third adaptation of the WWI novel and has nothing new or interesting to say about literally anything. (It's marvelous from a technical standpoint, though.) A win by any of the other nominees would be a pretty big upset, especially Living, but I don't think I'd really be shocked if Glass Onion (Johnson is a previous nominee) or Maverick (Hollywood really seems to love it) won. But I guess I'll just go chalk here and go with Sarah Polley for Women Talking. I think a win for AQonWF would be disappointing—and a potential harbinger of disaster for Best Picture. It's within the realm of possibility, though.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Women Talking, 2) Glass Onion, 3) Top Gun: Maverick, 4) Living, 5) All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Screenplay

Todd Field – Tár

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans

If EEAAO is going to have the kind of night everyone thinks it's going to, this category will be a key cog. The spoiler would be Martin McDonagh for Banshees, and he has very decent +100 odds at this late hour. My preference would be neither—Todd Field's Tár screenplay would get my vote by far. But, as previously established, I don't get a vote, so I'm left with choosing between EEAAO and Banshees. And as much as I'd be tickled by a Banshees win—I think it's the (slightly) superior script—I think Kwan and Scheinert will take this category. Which will be just fine with me—love the movie, love the script. Not particularly bothered that I think Field and McDonagh had slightly superior work. A rogue win for Östlund or Spielberg/Kushner wouldn't sit very well, though. Good thing neither is particularly likely. But an upset loss here for EEAAO wouldn't necessarily bode well for as easy Best Picture win.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Field, 2) McDonagh, 3) Kwan and Scheinert, 4) Östlund, 5) Spielberg and Kushner

Best Director

Todd Field – Tár

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are huge favorites here, and will likely take the statue(s). They won just a massive amount of regional critic awards, the Critics Choice, and, most importantly, the DGA. Spielberg, their closest competition, did win the Globe and NBR, but he already has two Best Director Oscars and Fabelmans wasn't nearly as well received as EEAAO. It would be a major, major upset if SPielberg won. (Note that the BAFTA went to Edward Berger for AQotWF, who wasn't nominated here.) None of the other three have any realistic chance, even the deserving Field (who'd get my vote), McDonagh (who will be back, perhaps even as a winner someday), and Östlund (almost certainly the final name in the field).

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Field, 2) Kwan and Scheinert, 3) McDonagh, 4) Spielberg, 5) Östlund

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

How the ceremony—and the year in cinema itself, potentially—will be remembered all depends on how this category turns out. If Everything Everywhere All at Once wins as expected, as it should, and as I think it will, all will be right with the world of film. Almost everyone likes EEAAO (even if not everyone loves it), and it's a unique genre (sci-fi/martial arts/comedy) with a mostly Asian cast that was well reviewed and made over $100M at the box office. It would be a monumental win and a real signal that the stodgy (real: old and white) Academy has truly changed. And there's no real reason to think EEAAO won't win: it won the PGA, DGA, SAG, Critics Choice, and tons of other minor precursors. It did lose the Globe (Musical/Comedy) to Banshees (Fabelmans won Drama) and BAFTA to AQotWF, but all that really says is that the movie didn't exactly resonate with Europeans, which isn't particularly relevant to this race. (The other major precursor, the NBR, went to Top Gun: Maverick.) EEAAO has the resume of a clear winner and I don't see any of the other nominees as having enough backing to pull off the upset.

But EEAAO can't be considered a true lock, and if you do enough digging on Film Twitter and among prognosticators, there's a slight sense out there that disaster is possible. The only question is which of the other nominees could usurp EEAAO. Several have no chance whatsoever: Avatar, Elvis, Triangle, and Women. They're just happy to be here. My personal #1 film of the year, Tár, is VERY well regarded critically and you might be able to see some sort of path to a shocking win if you squint hard enough... but, no, it's not happening. Fabelmans has a couple big things in its favor—it's Spielberg, and it's about the movies—but it's time has come and gone in this race and should be little more than an also-ran. As I mentioned above, Maverick won the NBR and even saved the movies, and would make for a pretty audacious surprise win, but it doesn't have the nominations needed in other major categories.

That leaves us with two films that could potentially shock the cinematic world tonight: Banshees and AQotWF. Banshees has all the right nominations in the other major categories (Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress) and did beat EEAAO head-to-head at the Globes. If there's some strange contingent among voters that just doesn't want to see EEAAO win (that stodgy element), Banshees could benefit. Were that to happen, it'd be the wrong decision to be sure, but it's still a great movie, so it wouldn't be a complete disaster... which is exactly what it would be if AQotWF were to win. I think the WWI drama is a Fine Motion Picture—and it's exceedingly well made from a technical standpoint—but it's completely devoid of depth, of ingenuity, of anything interesting to say to contemporary audiences and cineastes. But its seven wins at the BAFTAs can't be totally ignored—this movie clearly has its proponents, for some reason. If an even stodgier contingent has any kind of sway, utter disaster is possible.

Fortunately, I don't think that'll happen. The Academy had a very similar choice back in 2020 when Parasite won over yet another WWI movie that inexplicably had a ton of backers, 1917. The Academy made the objectively correct choice then, and there is no real reason to think it won't do so again. But this is also the same body that picked Green Book over Roma and The King's Speech over The Social Network, so you never really know. EEAAO *should* win tonight, but you have to at least explore the possibility that it won't.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Tár, 2) Avatar: The Way of Water, 3) Everything Everywhere All at Once, 4) The Banshees of Inisherin, 5) Top Gun: Maverick, 6) Women Talking, 7) Triangle of Sadness, 8) All Quiet on the Western Front, 9) Elvis, 10) The Fabelmans

As usual, LIGHTNING ROUND for the non-major categories. I'm very glad that all these awards will be televised again this year, as they all deserve to be.

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) – directed by Edward Berger

At -3500, this is the biggest favorite on the board and will easily win this category. This is the only nominee I've seen, so I'll have to abstain from "voting." But how the fuck was RRR not nominated?

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have only seen one of the nominees)

Best Animated Feature Film

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio – directed by Guillermo del Toro and Mark Gustafson

This is another huge favorite at -2000. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish are very, very long shots to upset GDT.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Feature

Navalny – directed by Daniel Roher

So says the internets. As usual, I haven't seen any of the nominated films. As I understand it, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Fire of Love are possibilities for spoiler.

My Non-Existent Vote: 

Best Cinematography

James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front

Is AQotWF this year's Dune, sweeping all the technical categories? It seems fairly likely. Mandy Walker for Elvis has a real shot here, though, so watch out for that.

My Non-Existent Vote: Florian Hoffmeister – Tár

Best Editing

Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once

This seems to be a two-horse race between EEAAO and Top Gun: Maverick, but Rogers work is more impressive and Maverick should take Best Sound so voters may pass on it here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Rogers

Best Original Score

Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front

This might be the toughest category on the board to predict. Justin Hurwitz's Babylon score is superior but the movie itself isn't well loved. EEAAO and Fabelmans are frisky longshots.

My Non-Existent Vote: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon

Best Original Song

"Naatu Naatu" – M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose (from RRR)

Don't completely discount Lady Gaga ("Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick) and Rihanna ("Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), but this is a JAM and the only nomination for RRR.

My Non-Existent Vote: "Naatu Naatu"

Best Sound

Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor – Top Gun: Maverick

AQotWF is a definite possibility here—tech voters obviously adore it—but they like Maverick as well, and this looks like the best bet to make sure it gets a statue.

My Non-Existent Vote: Weingarten, Mather, Nelson, Burdon, and Taylor

Best Visual Effects

Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett – Avatar: The Way of Water

Avatar doesn't have a real challenger—the VFX are just jaw-dropping, pushing the industry forward in the same way the first one did. Maverick and Black Panther are longshots, but Avatar is peerless here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Letteri, Baneham, Saindon, and Barrett

Best Production Design

Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino – Babylon

This seems to be neck and neck between Babylon and Elvis. While I could easily see Babylon going home empty-handed, I could also see voters going for it here while giving Costume Design to Elvis.

My Non-Existent Vote: Martin and Carlino

Best Costume Design

Catherine Martin – Elvis

This could easily go to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for Ruth Carter, but this could be the best chance to reward Elvis, which is obviously well liked, if Butler doesn't win Actor.

My Non-Existent Vote: Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti – Elvis

This is a toss up between Elvis and The Whale. When in doubt, go with the Best Picture nominee (which also has the flashier work). But pairing this with Best Actor for Frasure is definitely possible.

My Non-Existent Vote: Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine – The Batman

Best Live Action Short

An Irish Goodbye – directed by Tom Berkeley and Ross White

It will either be this or Le pupille by well-regarded Italian filmmaker Alice Rohrwacher (and produced by Alfonso Cuarón). But Goodbye is much more accessible and audience-friendly, so let's go with it.

My Non-Existent Vote: An Irish Goodbye

Best Animated Short

My Year of Dicks – directed by Sara Gunnarsdóttir

This was EASILY the best of a weak crop of animated shorts. I REFUSE to believe the Academy will go for trite bullshit like The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, but it is considered the frontrunner.

My Non-Existent Vote: My Year of Dicks

Best Documentary Short

The Elephant Whisperers – Kartiki Gonsalves

This, Stranger at the Gate, and Haulout seem to be the frontrunners over the other two. This one is on Netflix, so it seems likelier that more voters have seen it, so that's what I'll go with.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Again: My number to top is 20/23, which I don't see happening with so many close races. I'd settle for at least 7/8 in the major categories and a few misses in the rest of the categories. I'll be cheering most for EEAAO in the major categories, "Naatu Naatu," and My Year of Dicks. We'll begin to find out the winners in about an hour and a half. Can't wait!

AfterTár: The Way of Inisherin (All at Once): My 2022 Fake Oscars

This past year in cinema was a marked improvement on 2021 in more ways than one. On one hand, we saw the domestic box office continue crawling back toward pre-pandemic levels—an almost 65% increase in earnings despite a similar number of releases. Two movies in particular helped with that: Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick. Both long-gestating sequels actually cracked the all-time domestic box office top-10. Perhaps it wasn't total hyperbole when Steven Spielberg told Tom Cruise that he saved the movies. (He's done it before, and he'll probably do it again when the final Mission: Impossible movies drop.) I don't know if the box office will ever get back to where it was before the pandemic due to competition from streaming (and TV), but 2022 was a step in the right direction.

And on the other hand, this year's Oscar slate is far superior to last year's. The 2022 Best Picture showdown of CODA and The Power of the Dog was one of the weaker ones in recent memory (I preferred Dog but literally rated them both four stars), and none of the acting performances seem likely to go down in the annals (and neither will CODA—or Dog for that matter). The ceremony will always be more remembered for The Slap than any of the films or performances that actually won. This year, we're spoiled with a surfeit of exceptional films and performances led, seemingly, by the idiosyncratic and charming Everything Everywhere All at Once. Not even, I don't know, Bill Nighy drop-kicking Jimmy Kimmel could detract from world cinema legend Michelle Yeoh winning Best Actress. (I encourage him to try, though.)

Both facets of the year that was are represented in my favorite films and performances of 2022: art and commerce, forever intertwined but forever at odds. But I don't play favorites, celebrating both the tiniest independent drama (Aftersun) and the biggest big-budget spectacle (the Avatar sequel). The usual preamble out of the way, let's get to handing out some fake awards to movies big and small—starting, as the real ceremony often does, with the supporting categories.

Gold = winner
^ = nominated for a real Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin^

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway^

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin^

Brandon Perea – Nope

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once^

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Honorable mentions (alphabetical): Paul Dano – The Fabelmans, Tobey Maguire – Babylon, Mark Rylance – Bones and All, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Steven Yeun – Nope

This is probably uninteresting, but the way I figure out my list of nominees and honorable mentions is by going through my running list of all the year's movies on Letterboxd and putting the names that come to mind in a Notepad document. I say this because, looking at this list (four out of five names in common), you might assume I start with the real Oscar nominees and go from there. But that's just how it turned out this year—the Academy mostly got it right. The lone missing name here is Judd Hirsch. He was great but was basically only in one scene, which doesn't pass muster for me. I would have preferred the grounded, unfussy work of his costar, Dano, although I didn't particularly care for the film overall. A quick note about the other HMs: I went back and forth between Yeun and Perea for the final slot, Maguire just absolutely GOES FOR IT in his brief appearance in the flawed but worthwhile Babylon, Rylance's strange and terrifying performance is a testament to his range, and Whishaw balanced goofiness and gravitas.

• I'll start with the prohibitive (-2000 right now, the biggest favorite in any of the major categories) Oscar favorite, and very much a contender here: Ke Huy Quan. Not only is his comeback story incredible (he was basically driven out of Hollywood due to typecasting after a successful career as a child actor in the '80s), but so is his performance. He gets many of the film's funniest/most ridiculous lines but also serves as the movie's emotional lynchpin as the doting father/neglected husband to also-Oscar-nominated Stephanie Hsu and Michelle Yeoh. Imagine not acting in basically 20 years and returning with a performance this funny, layered (he plays multiple versions of himself like everyone in the movie), and brimming with pathos. Quan's Oscar will be richly deserved.
• His closest Oscar competition seems to be the Inisherin boys, so let's move on to them. We'll start with Barry Keoghan, who has a preternaturally disarming screen presence—I, for one, will never forget his performance in The Killing of a Sacred Deer. That disquieting presence is put to full use in Inisherin, where he plays the town's fool. A developmentally disabled, alcoholic, abused young man, he's the butt of many of the movie's darkest jokes, but he also delivers its most heartbreaking line: "There goes that dream." If you've seen the movie, apologies for the reminder. If you haven't, rectify that as soon as you can. Keoghan made my field almost solely because of his delivery of that line.
• Somehow, some way, Brendan Gleeson—only one of the best, most beloved character actors of all time—has never been nominated for an Oscar. That error was finally, thankfully, rectified this year for his portrayal of the delightfully hateable Colm Doherty in his reunion with Martin McDonagh after 14 years. (Surely his work in In Bruges was worthy of an Oscar nom?) His wry smugness is a perfect foil, once again, for Colin Farrell's well-intentioned dimwit. He doesn't quite have that one standout scene like Keoghan, but his is sturdy, assured work throughout. Unlike his character, I can count on my fingers several roles he could have been nominated for in the past. He won't win the real statue this year (maybe someday), but he's right up there with Quan for the fake one.
• Might as well talk about the fourth and final real Oscar nominee, Brian Tyree Henry. I had barely heard of Causeway when the nominations were announced, and I admit to not really looking forward to watching it. (I blame David O. Russell for general Jennifer Lawrence burnout.) I liked but didn't love the movie—but was very impressed with Henry's work. The movie takes Henry out of Atlanta and drops him in New Orleans, but the character—an auto shop owner with a prosthetic leg—wouldn't necessarily been out of place alongside Paper Boi, Earn, and Darius. (Still need to finish the final season.) His naturalistic, lived-in performance seems almost effortless—but that would be taking away from his craft. Like Keoghan, his reading of a single, simple line—"Not inside"—is one of the best of the year and earned Henry a nom here.
• That leaves us with Brandon Parea from Jordan Peele's underappreciated Nope. (Not even one nomination? Original Screenplay? Sound? Cinematography?) I almost went with Yeun here for his textured, forlorn performance as former child actor turned theme park owner Jupe, but I ultimately went with the relatively unknown Parea's doe-eyed yet paranoid turn as a Fry's Electronics employee, of all things. I just love how he gloms on to what OJ and Emerald are up to—his zealous belief really kickstarts the plot. And he really sells the minor character details—his recent heartbreak, listening to "Sunglasses at Night." It's not the kind of performance that would normally get nominated, and he was the last name in my field after the real nominees. But it was a relatively underwhelming year for supporting actor performances, so I gave him the nod.

There's a sizeable gap between the top two names here—Gleeson and Quan—and the rest of the field. Quan is fantastic in EEAAO and I'll be heartily rooting for him at the Oscars—but only because my winner in this category, the magnificent Brendan Gleeson, doesn't have much of a chance (he's +1800, behind even Keoghan). I can only hope he has a real Oscar in him someday. Maybe the next McDonagh collab in 14 years?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin^

Claire Foy – Women Talking

Eiza Gonzalez – Ambulance

Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King

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Honorable mentions (alphabetical): Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever^, Hong Chau – The Whale^, Dolly de Leon – The Triangle of Sadness, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once^, Keke Palmer – Nope

This category is the inverse of the above—only one actual Oscar nominee in this field. But you do see three of them in the HMs—Bassett's stately work as Queen Ramonda, Chau's exasperated nurse in The Whale (the best part of a movie I didn't love overall), and Hsu's feisty breakthrough in EEAAO. They all just missed out here, like de Leon's show-stealing third-act performance in Triangle and Palmer's expert comedic work in Nope. As far as Curtis goes, she's... fine. The support and few precursors she's gotten so far have to be more for her long career and general goodwill. Certainly not the performance. But onto my field.

• First up is the one woman to make the real Oscar field, Kerry Condon. Despite a 20+ year career, I wasn't too familiar with her before Banshees. I knew her mostly as the voice of F.R.I.D.A.Y. in the MCU and, more prominently, as Stacey Ehrmantraut on the superlative Better Call Saul. (It's easily one of the best shows of the past decade.) But me and cineastes everywhere will definitely take more notice in the wake of her sensational performance in Banshees as the put-upon sister of Farrell's doltish Pádraic. She's the character the "There goes that dream" line is delivered to, and her resoluteness and grace—cut through with pure Irish wit—in that scene and throughout the film is near the top of the list of highlights of McDonagh's incredible film.
• Now, you may be asking yourself—did I really see Ambulance, the latest Mikey Bay joint, in the header image? Am I really seeing a performance from said Mikey Bay joint nominated in this category? Well, all I have to say to that—besides yes and yes—is that you clearly haven't been reading this blog very long. I'm an avowed Bay fan (his non-Transformers work, at least). And I'm also, now, an avowed Eiza Gonzalez fan. I was just wowed by her (hopefully) star-making turn in Ambulance as a jaded, harried EMT abducted by two would-be bank robbers. Laugh it up if you want, but she's the beating heart of this action movie—and her character really, really works. She just lights up the screen every time she's on it. She's one to keep an eye on for sure.
• Since the final two nominees are in the same movie, let's move on to Thuso Mbedu, who might be more accurately billed as the co-lead of the Oscar-snubbed The Woman Queen. But with Viola Davis as the clear lead, we'll slot her costar here. In her film debut, Mbedu plays Nawi, a young girl given over to the soldiers of the Agojie by her father after refusing to marry an older man. She becomes a fierce warrior, but still a vulnerable young girl—and Mbedu's utterly convincing performance captures both aspects of the character. She was the real takeaway from The Woman King to me—we know Davis is good, but her costar is a very promising young actress as well.
• The last two nominees are both from the thorny, somewhat divisive Women Talking. Let's begin with the one who's a return nominee from last year, the tastefully named Jessie Buckley. Last year, she was nominated for her role as the younger version of Olivia Colman's character in The Lost Daughter—a passionate academic unsure of motherhood. The character of Mariche couldn't be more opposite: she's an uneducated fiercely protective mother and abused wife. But the same fire burns within both characters—and, indeed, most characters I've seen her play. She already has one Oscar nomination to her name, and she will absolutely win one someday. Mark it down.
• Claire Foy's name is probably more familiar to most, having starred in The Crown. (Which I haven't seen; not up my alley.) She's every bit Buckley's equal in Women as the outspoken, even more fiery Salome. Whereas Mariche is reactive, Salome is proactive—a fanatical zeal permeates her performance. She has a monologue about halfway through about not only protecting her children, but murdering the men who would harm them—"I will dance on graves!" Absolutely incendiary stuff. I nearly bolted upright in my seat and started cheering. I think she was the main highlight of the film for me—even more so than Buckley (Nominal star Rooney Mara was quite good but not on their level.)

This was a much tighter race than Supporting Actor. Mbedu was the only one I didn't really consider as the winner. I loved both Buckley and Foy, but they did somewhat cancel each other out. Thus, it came down to Condon and Gonzalez. In the end, I went with... Eiza Gonzalez. Condon was excellent and would obviously get my Oscar vote, but Gonzalez's performance just stuck with me a bit more. Perhaps because she wasn't sharing the screen with two other Oscar nominated performances? But I honestly think her performance was incredible, action movie or not.

BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler – Elvis^

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin^

Brendan Fraser – The Whale^

Jon Hamm – Confess, Fletch

Paul Mescal – Aftersun^

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Honorable mentions (alphabetical): Dali Benssalah – Athena, N. T. Rama Rao Jr. – RRR, Mark Rylance – The Outfit, Adam Sandler – Hustle, Alexander Skarsgård – The Northman

 

Like Supporting Actor, we have four nominees in common with the real Oscar field. The one missing name is Bill Nighy from Living. I love Nighy (Billy Mack! Davy Jones!) and liked the movie/performance, but both were a little too... minor to merit serious consideration here on this blog. Amiable, but minor. As you'll read below, I had a hard time filling the final two slots in this category after an obvious top three, and Rylance nearly made the field with his painstakingly reserved work in the underappreciated The Outfit. I was really impressed by Benssalah's transformation from patriot to radical in the stunning Athena, and Rao's charm and physicality were the best part of the phenomenal RRR. Sandler continues to deliver career-best work when he wants to (that Oscar nom is coming) and Skarsgård gives the year's most physically impressive performance.

• We'll start with what might surprise you to learn was the final name in this field—Brendan Fraser. I tried to keep him out, I really did—I have real reservations about decorating performances that rely so heavily on makeup and prosthetics like this. (As I made clear when discussing Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour.) But Fraser's work in The Whale is much, MUCH better—more nuanced, more empathetic, just more technically impressive. He actually creates a character, even under all the makeup/fat suit, rather than doing an impression like Oldman. He has some really strong line readings as well. And not that it matters here, but you have to love his comeback narrative—he wouldn't get my vote for the Oscar, but I'd be happy for him if he won. (Although he's looking more and more like a co-favorite with Butler now than the frontrunner.)
• Might as well take the segue that's offered—Austin Butler was an easy inclusion here, much to my surprise. The trailer for Elvis was awful, and reviews were mixed at best. I likely would never have watched it if it wasn't nominated, and even then I was prepared to be underwhelmed—performances based on real-life people is perhaps my least favorite kind of acting. But I was blown away by Butler—he radiates megawatt movie star energy and is just scintillating as Elvis. He smolders, he sears, he scorches. But he also brings a humanness to the role, which I wasn't expecting—he was a real man under all the glitz and glamor. (He also sung a ton of the vocal tracks as well, which helps.) He may very well pull off the upset on Sunday—and if he doesn't, he'll be back someday for sure.
• Let's pause here before—spoilers—the top two contenders in this category. I want to talk about Jon Hamm, and comedic performances in general. Like Supporting Actor, I struggled a bit to fill this field, and I landed on Hamm only after long consideration of the HMs. I asked myself which performance I found myself thinking about most after the credits ended. It wasn't Benssalah (felt the film was more a directorial achievement); it wasn't Rylance (too quiet) or Sandler (good but far from his best work); and Skarsgård's work lacked depth. Instead, it was Hamm's rather subdued comedic mastery that stood out to me. Every line reading, every mannerism felt perfectly calibrated—this is a man fully harnessing his talents. I wish there were more movies—and more performances—like this out there. I think I heard a sequel is in the works?
• This category was by far the hardest to decide, and it came down to Farrell vs. Mescal. The case for Colin Farrell is easy to make. He's long been one of my favorite actors—although I will admit I didn't take to him right away after his Phone Booth/Recruit/Daredevil beginnings. But then came Intermission (man, it's been a while), then Miami Vice, then In Bruges... and so on. He's one of his generation's most talented actors, and I'm so, so glad his talent has finally outshone his ubiquitous early-career tabloid presence. His work in Banshees might be career-best—simultaneously one of the funniest and most heartrending performances of the year. He plays almost every emotion conceivable like strings on an Irish flute—it's just a knockout performance. When I first saw Banshees, I thought he'd be a shoo-in for this category...
• …but then, literally 5 days later (I checked!), I saw Paul Mescal in Aftersun. I didn't know much about the movie, and I had no idea who Mescal was—all I really knew is that a ton of critics I follow on Letterboxd adored it at festivals. And... I was fucking leveled by Mescal's work as a depressive father (Calum) on holiday with his daughter (Sophie) in the Mediterranean. One of my core tenets as an amateur critic is that the best acting is an act of creation—creating a character, a person with just your voice, your face, your mannerisms. Work like Mescal's here is the purest form of creation I can think of—it almost feels like you're watching a documentary at times. Several scenes gave me chills—that breakdown in the hotel room is the strongest example. The more I think about it, the more I think that this in one of the major performances of the last several years.

So I suppose this category wasn't that difficult after all (afterall?)—despite my great affection for Farrell and his performance, this one goes to Paul Mescal for his utterly transformative, heart-shattering work in Aftersun. He has no chance on Oscar Sunday, and I don't know what the future holds for him, but this work will always be a major touchstone for me. Now, let's get Farrell his Oscar someday!

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Tár^

Zoë Kravitz – Kimi

Aubrey Plaza – Emily the Criminal

Tang Wei – Decision to Leave

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once^

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Honorable mentions (alphabetical): Frankie Corio – Aftersun, Viola Davis – The Woman Queen, Daisy Edgar-Jones – Fresh, Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway, Taylor Russell – Bones and All

Two out of five in common with the Oscars here. The only Oscar nominee I take much issue with is Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans. I consider Williams one of our best working actresses—even more so than Amy Adams, she's most due for an Oscar. But her overly sentimental, Capital A Acting in Fabelmans ain't it. Andrea Riseborough, whom I also very much like, plays a stock character (the relapsing/recovering alcoholic)—she plays the role well, yes, but it's nothing we haven't see before. Finally, Ana de Armas  (one of my favorite up-and-coming talents) is held back by glaring flaws in the writing and direction of Blonde. I prefer the likes of Corio (sensational young actor performance), Davis (frustratingly passed over for the likes of Williams and Riseborough), Jones (the best of a strong crop of scream queens this year), Lawrence (more films without David O. Russell, please), and Russell (the highlight of a somewhat underwhelming Bones). But I even more prefer (obviously) the three new names in this field. Let's start with the one I knew would make this field when I saw her movie early last year.

• That would be Zoë Kravitz from Kimi, which was released on HBO Max in February 2022. It was Soderbergh, so I knew it would be good, but I wasn't necessarily expecting something that (spoilers) would wind up making my Best Picture field. And Kravitz's performance has a ton to do with that—she's very much the centerpiece of the movie as the titular Kimi (just kidding! her character is named Angela), onscreen for nearly the entire runtime. Angela is a highly intelligent, deeply neurotic recluse, and Kravitz's performance is twitchy and raw, her eyes constantly darting about the frame quizzically. It's also sensual—Angela may be a recluse, but she also yearns for (physical) companionship. Kravitz really captures all these conflicting desires and creates a truly memorable character. I remember really liking her in Gemini a few years back, but this is a step forward and I'll be keeping an eye on what she does next.
• This should be Aubrey Plaza's second nomination on this blog. If I had seen Black Bear when it came out instead of well after the fact, she would have won Best Actress over Carey Mulligan (and booted Vanessa Kirby from a nomination). She's not *quite* as good in Emily the Criminal (yes, she does play the titular Emily), but she's close as a burnout/wannabe artist from New Jersey (but living in L.A.) drowning in student loan debt. There's more than a little Jersey Shore influence here, but also a good helping of '70s Al Pacino antihero swagger. She makes questionable decision after questionable decision (duh, she's a criminal), but she makes you believe that this character would make those decisions—and that this character thinks the decisions are good ones. (They almost always aren't.) The movie itself is a little held back by a copout of an ending, but Plaza's performance rises above it. She'll be back in this space before too long, I'm sure. And maybe one day the actual Oscars?
• I liked but didn't quite love the new Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (although I do plan on rewatching it), but I was easily won over by Tang Wei's performance in it. I always love when a character within a movie is themselves acting, and there are multiple such levels to Tang's work here. First, she coyly seduces the detective investigating her for her husband's possible murder—but is the seduction genuine or to help cover up a murder she may have committed? These kinds of films demand that it be played both ways, which Tang does marvelously. After a time jump, her character finds herself married again, now to a shady business developer—but she tangles herself up in the detective's life once again. Is it genuine or not? The film eventually resolves that question, but Tang's layered, multifaceted performance has you guessing the entire time.
• Like the category above, this one came down to two real Oscar nominees—but unlike Best Actor, these two are duking it out for Best Actress for real. When I first saw Everything Everywhere All at Once, I said Michelle Yeoh deserves "a damn Oscar." And I stand by that. She's sensational as Evelyn and her performance runs the gamut—family drama, zany comedy, sci-fi, Wong Kai-wai cosplay, and, of course martial arts. She uses every trick she's picked up in her legendary film career, resulting in one of the best performances of her career (right up there with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which also needs a rewatch soon) and, hopefully (likely?) an unprecedented Oscar. It can't be understated how much her winning would mean for world cinema, for representation, for the hundreds of actors and actresses from outside the U.S. and siloed into genres like martial arts that came before her. But... will she win this fake Oscar? She has some fierce competition in...
• ...Cate Blanchett, who is surprisingly a first-time nominee on this blog. (She just missed out for Carol in the first version of my Fake Oscars back in 2015.) She's long been one of my favorite actresses, and her portrayal of Jude Quinn in I'm Not There would be on my shortlist of best performances ever put to film. I don't say this lightly—she's almost as good as Lydia Tár. Here's what I said when I first saw the film: "It's easily the best performance of any kind I've seen this year, likely of this young decade, and perhaps even of her incredible career." Like I said above, the best acting is a form of creation, and Blanchett creates, embodies, manifests an entire being with her body and voice. From the opening scene—a long interview with Adam Gopnik—it's almost like you're watching a biopic of a real person. In fact, many people thought just that—that Lydia Tár was real. I can think of no higher compliment for an acting performance.

This was a bit of a tough call, in the end. Yeoh is a huge sentimental favorite, and I'll absolutely be rooting for her to win the Oscar (since Blanchett already has two). But this fake Oscar absolutely goes to Cate Blanchett and what, ultimately, is the better performance. That's really all that matters here (it's not so cut and dry when it comes to the Oscars, where legacy and narrative do matter to an extent). I'll be very interested to see how this race is decided tomorrow night.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Todd Field – Tár^

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once^

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin^

Jordan Peele – Nope

Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

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Honorable mentions (alphabetical): Zach Cregger – Barbarian, David Cronenberg – Crimes of the Future, David Koepp – Kimi, Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness^, Sarah Polley – Women Talking^

I'll spare everyone my usual rant about why I don't have an Adapted Screenplay category (I know I've given it a few times in years past). Of all these nominees and HMs, there's only one screenplay adapted from another work: Sarah Polley's thorny, fascinating Women Talking, which may be the frontrunner for the Oscar. Of the rest of the actual nominees, Living was charming but minor, Maverick's strength was not in its script, I much preferred Knives Out's script to Glass Onion's, and I fail to see anything Oscar-worthy in the AQotWF script. Oh, and as mentioned previously, Fabelmans just didn't work for me. I did quite like Triangle, especially the first and last sections. I wish I could have found room for Cregger's bonkers Barbarian, Cronenberg's warped and prescient Crimes, and Koepp's immaculately constructed Kimi, but the field was just too strong with three Oscar nominees and two films that should have been.

• One of those is Jordan Peele's Nope, yet another unique, inventive story from perhaps the most interesting mainstream American filmmaker today. On the surface, Nope is a small-scale alien invasion/monster movie—and a damn effective one at that. But it's also a sly commentary on summer blockbusters, showing us the forgotten minorities and animals that help make them but receive none of the credit. And it shows us that the things people get nostalgic about, the viral clips that go around every now and then, maybe weren't so great—man, that Gordy sequence is incredible. I can't quite say that everything Peele tries to tackle here fully comes together, but the ideas here are so original that it's okay this isn't as fully formed as Get Out. And I still say that Peele's best is yet to come, which is unbelievably exciting.
• Speaking of writer/directors with incredible debuts, we have Charlotte Wells and Aftersun. The premise is simple enough—a divorced father and his 11-year-old daughter go on holiday in Turkey. Fun, sun, swimming pools, shooting pool, karaoke. But what starts off as a minor haunting, melancholic quality soon permeates the whole film as Wells explores the impossibility of knowing the internal life of your parent. It's deeply observant, ultimately devastating work. It feels so fully realized that it must be autobiographical—but it's not. The dialogue is so naturalistic, so un-filmlike that it must be improvised—but it wasn't. It's just masterful work. This isn't the last you'll be hearing about Wells, here or elsewhere.
• And now we have the three Oscar nominees for three very, very different scripts. As I said when I first saw it, Martin McDonagh's Banshees feels like a stage play with the scope of a Russian novel. There are few characters and even fewer settings, but McDonagh is exploring some big ideas about the human condition—Bulgakov with a brogue. Like Aftersun, the premise is straightforward—a guy decides he no longer wants to be friends with his lifelong drinking buddy simply because he's kind of boring. Since it's McDonagh, things escalate from there in dark, funny, bloody ways as he ponders friendship, art, fate, and what it means to be a "nice guy." It's easily my favorite McDonagh since In Bruges, and a welcome return to form after the misstep that was Three Billboards.
• Next we have Todd Field and Tár. Field had a burgeoning career as a character actor in the '80s/'90s, popping up in movies like Twister and Eyes Wide Shut before shifting to writing/directing with In the Bedroom (which I haven't seen) in 2001. I did see and like 2006's Little Children. But nothing could have prepared me for the staggering achievement that is Tár, Field's third feature and first in over 15 years. From the riveting opening interview scene mentioned above, I knew I was watching something special—a perfectly calibrated meditation on power, sex, fame, the #MeToo movement, and cancel culture set in the world of classical music. It's nothing short of an American masterpiece—novelistic, powerful, perplexing, thought-provoking, and never less than fascinating. I absolutely can't wait for a second viewing.
• The final nominee here is the likely Oscar-winning duo of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, better known as the Daniels, for EEAAO. In my initial Letterboxd review, I called it recklessly inventive—the concept is way out there, some of the dialogue borders on absurd, and the plot is at times obtuse. But the story is incredibly grounded—children and parents learning to find common ground, a husband and a wife learning to love each other again. That's the Daniels' greatest achievement here—couching this very touching, very universal story within the wackiest of conceits. People with hot dog fingers. Talking rocks (low key one of the best scenes of the year). Raccacoonie. A literal everything bagel. This uber-high-concept approach didn't really work for me with their previous effort, 2016's Swiss Army Man (aka the farting corpse movie with Harry Potter), but, man, did it work like gangbusters here.

I think Peele is the only nominee here that I didn't consider winning at some point. Any of Wells, McDonagh, or the Daniels would be a worthy winner, but Tár is just a singular achievement, so Todd Field takes the prize here. I hope it's much less than 16 years before his next movie, but even if it is a long wait, it will undoubtedly be worth it.

BEST DIRECTOR

James Cameron – Avater: The Way of Water

Todd Field – Tár^

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once^

Steven Soderbergh – Kimi

Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

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Honorable mentions (alphabetical): Michael Bay – Ambulance, Zach Cregger – Barbarian, Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin^, Jordan Peele – Nope, S.S. Rajamouli – RRR

Three names in common with the last category, but only two in common with the Oscars, with Peele (again, not quite everything he was going for really came together 100%) and McDonagh (solid, unflashy work behind the camera) dropping to HM here. Triangle was a little tonally wonky to merit consideration here, and, again, Fabelmans just wasn't on my wavelength. (The last Spielberg I really admired was Munich way back in 2005.) Of the HMs, Michael "Action Is" Bay was closest to an actual nomination—I really went back and forth between him and Soderbergh as examples of consummate commercial filmmaking. But Soderbergh's work is inarguably tighter. We also have Cregger again for his unpredictable and undeniable debut and Rajamouli's bromance/action/epic RRR, which has developed a huge cult following. I'll have a little more to say about it in the next category.

• The final name in this field was Steven Soderbergh, who is about as prolific a director as there is working today. Just to compare him to Todd Field, since 2001 (when In the Bedroom was released), Soderbergh has made a whopping 24(!) movies—and keep in mind that he had a decade-long career, including a Best Director Oscar for Traffic, before that. His genre interests are all over the map—heist movies, character dramas, sci-fi, noir, thrillers. His latest, Kimi is one of the latter, an exquisite blend of contemporary concerns (the pandemic, remote work, the surveillance state, sexual assault) that he gives the Hitchcock treatment to. It's anchored by Kravitz's spellbinding central performance and Cliff Martinez's mesmerizing score, but Soderbergh pushes all the right buttons to make what is unmistakably an artifact of 2023 but should also prove to be infinitely rewatchable.
• I would never describe Charlotte Wells's Aftersun as rewatchable, much less infinitely so—it's the kind of film you only really need to see once. I'd put it in the same category as recent dramas like Roma, Minari, and Drive My Car—profound, affecting works that I probably won't rewatch for at least a decade, if ever. They're just not ideal "Saturday night with a couple beers" movies, you know? But that doesn't mean I don't admire films like this any less—and I might even say Aftersun is the best of the ones mentioned here. Wells suffuses her film with a poetic, elegiac energy—you get the sense of some impending tragedy, although the end of the film reveals no such tragedy. Instead, we get several scattered, hallucinatory scenes of adult Sophie interacting with Calum at a club, trying and failing to connect with him. The most powerful moment of the film—and perhaps the year—intersperses this with young Sophie dancing with Calum on holiday to "Under Pressure." The memory of that scene will stick with me a long time, making a rewatch somewhat unnecessary.
• Speaking of rewatches, I've already rewatched a few of the films from this category: Kimi, Ambulance, Nope, and EEAAO. (I meant to rewatch Avatar in non-3D/HFR but have yet to do so.) I've seen a lot of handwringing on Film Twitter about Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert potentially winning the Oscar, which is just ridiculous. EEAAO is just the kind of idiosyncratic, emotive, funny, skillful filmmaking the Academy should be acknowledging. I do sympathize a bit with those advocating for (minor spoilers for this category) Todd Field for Tár, but he's the only other nominee I'd consider worthy. Östlund probably shouldn't be there, this is far from Spielberg's best work, and McDonagh's script is stronger than his direction. If a filmmaker (or filmmakers) can make a scene featuring two rocks with googly eyes one of the most touching of the year, then they're Oscar worthy. Deal with it.
• If prognosticators are to be believed, James Cameron likely just missed out on another Oscar nomination for the Avatar sequel. He's more than worthy in my book (er, blog) for his grandiose worldbuilding and visual effects mastery. The first Avatar is still one of the most memorable theatrical experiences of my lifetime (others include Fellowship of the Ring and Gravity), and I honestly wasn't expecting The Way of Water to come anywhere near replicating that experience. Boy, was I wrong—Cameron has once again reset the market when it comes to visual effects, making another recent CGI blockbuster like Black Adam look like backwater diarrhea. But the technical wizardry isn't just pretty to look at, it's in service of a surprisingly strong story about family, capitalism, man's relationship to nature, and conservationism. He even manages to deconstruct a bit the blockbuster genre he helped build—in most of them, the collateral damage is to man-made cars, streets, buildings. Here, it's to a fully fledged, sentient ecosystem—each and every bullet is meaningful. Powerful stuff.
• Then we have Todd Field for Tár. I truly think what he has accomplished here deserves the word "masterpiece," and I said as much after my first (and thus far, only) viewing. This will be the film critics and historians will think of first when they talk about 2022 in cinema, like Mad Max: Fury Road, Moonlight, and Parasite of their respective years. (It's either this or Top Gun: Maverick, honestly; I don't think it'll be EEAAO. For audiences, maybe.) Like I was discussing with Kimi above, the subject matter is very of its time, and Field delves deeply into the psychology of his characters with the same fervor as his one-time director Stanley Kubrick. Like that genius, Field's absolute mastery of his craft is apparent in every frame, from the interview to the Juilliard scene to the dog in the basement to the tackle to the Philippines. He's just operating on another level—above the Daniels, above Cameron, above, yes, Spielberg, above anyone else's work on any film this year. To be clear, I'd have no problem with the Daniels winning the statue, but Field would get my vote—and he takes the fake statue here.

This was the easiest category so far to pick a winner: as stated above, Todd Field is this year's fake best director. In honor of this monumental achievement, I resolve to watch In the Bedroom soon. *Goes to add it to his Letterboxd watchlist.* Now, let's hope we get another Field movie before 2040.

BEST PICTURE

I think—think—that I'm done tweaking my top 10 movies of 2022 list, which is presented below as my nominees for Best Picture. You can also find this list on my Letterboxd, along with every other 2022 movie I've seen rated and (roughly) ranked. (The order outside the top 20 or so doesn't really matter.) I've also included my initial review(s) for each of the top 10 (many of which were linked above), and I'll add some brief thoughts after, mostly for movies that weren't discussed much above.

1. Tár^ | Letterboxd Review

2. Avater: The Way of Water^ | Letterboxd Review

3. Aftersun | Letterboxd Review

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once^ | Letterboxd Reviews

5. The Banshees of Inisherin^ | Letterboxd Review

6. Ambulance | Letterboxd Reviews

7. Barbarian | Letterboxd Review

8. Nope | Letterboxd Reviews

9. RRR | Letterboxd Review

10. Kimi | Letterboxd Reviews

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Honorable mentions (in order): The Sadness, Top Gun: Maverick^, Crimes of the Future, Women Talking^, Triangle of Sadness^

• I think the box office numbers of top two sums things up pretty well: Tár made a scant $20 million, while Avatar made over $2 billion. Art and commerce, commerce and art. The next two films repeat the same pattern: $7 million for Aftersun compared to over $100 million for EEAAO.
• Most people will tell you Top Gun: Maverick was the best action movie of the year. And, don't get me wrong, I quite liked it with its fun, young cast surrounding Tom Cruise at his movie star best; with its riveting action sequences and warm, nostalgic vibes. But truth be told, I thought it leaned a bit too heavily into the nostalgia factor, and I'm in the minority for still preferring the first one. But Maverick is a solid four-star movie, where as Ambulance (sorry, AmbuLAnce) is Michael Bay at his Bay-est best, trading in Autobots and Decepticons for an ambulance, CGI nonsense for spectacular drone shots. It's also an outstanding entry into the Heat pantheon of great L.A. bank robbery movies. Throw in Gonzalez's fantasic performance, a berkserk Jake Gyllenhaal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen as the sympathetic co-lead, and Garret Dillahunt and his big ol' slobbery pooch, and you've got the real best action movie of the year. Action is Bay, and Bay is Action. Same as it ever was.
• This past year was also a great year for horror films, led by Zach Cregger's awesome debut, Barbarian, which spins an absolutely insane story from a simple double-booking mix-up at an Airbnb in the Detroit suburbs. I went in not even knowing that much and was just blown away, giggling like an idiot at every twist and turn. But the most shocking thing of all might be that Cregger was more known in the sketch comedy scene than the horror scene as a member of The Whitest Kids U'Know. I never would have thought. There were also a ton of other great horror and horror-adjacent movies in 2022, such as the gleefully niihlistic and hyperviolent Taiwanese zombie movie The Sadness, Cronenberg's positively Cronenbergian Crimes of the Future, the cannibal love story Bones and All, and three new scream queens in Daisy Edgar-Jones (Fresh), Sosie Bacon (Smile), and Mia Goth (Pearl).
• The last movie I want to talk about is the Telugu-language historical action epic RRR, a kind of "What if?" movie about the entirely invented bromance between two early 20th Century Indian revolutionaries. Historically accurate or not, Bheem and Raju is one of the greatest bromances in cinema history—right up there with Maverick and Iceman, Mike Lowrey and Marcus Burnett, Dominic Toretto and Brian O'Conner. The movie itself has everything an action fan could ask for: impressive fight choreography, countless motorcycle stunts, a truckload of CGI animals wreaking havoc, and one of the best dance scenes you'll ever see. It's just a fucking blast, and I'd love to see it in theaters in the original Telugu language, rather than the Tamil dub that's on Netflix.

And... that's that. Another year of movies, another way-too-long blog post. This one's over 7,000 words, which might be a record for me. Next up is my Oscar predictions, which always run much, much shorter (more like 2,500-3,000 words). That should be up sometime tomorrow. In the meantime, thanks for reading!