Last year's Oscars were a strange beast. The ceremony itself was as controversial and memorable as it's ever been. Before the ceremony, the biggest controversy was the Academy deciding that several major awards, including Best Editing, wouldn't be televised. That ridiculous decision was thankfully reversed this year, so we'll see every award presented live. Then, of course, there was The Slap, perhaps the single most shocking moment in the history of the Oscars since Marlon Brando declining his Oscar for The Godfather.
But the actual winners themselves last year were utterly forgettable. CODA pulled off a minor upset in Best Picture over The Power of the Dog... and then promptly disappeared from relevancy. (And so did Dog, more or less.) None of the acting winners—Will Smith, Jessica Chastain, Troy Kotsur, Ariana DeBose—left any kind of cultural wake either. Just a thoroughly forgettable year as far as the actual films and performances go.
But as I wrote in my annual Fake Oscars post yesterday, we're a bit spoiled this year. No matter what happens, this will be a much more memorable slate of winners. If things go to plan, the (nearly) universally beloved Everything Everywhere All at Once—which clicked with both audiences and critics like few movies have in recent years—will snag several major awards and bring the house down. We also have potentially fascinating races in Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress with no real wrong answer possible. Of course, upsets do happen, and if something like All Quiet on the Western Front or The Fabelmans takes the top prize, well, that'll be memorable, too. (Let's just hope it doesn't come to that, though.)
So this will be a very interesting ceremony to handicap. It'll be tough to match last year's 20/23, when I missed only Best Picture (stupidly), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Animated Short (everyone usually misses at least one short), but I'll give it my best shot. Let's start with one of the trickier major categories.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
For a while there, Angela Bassett was the clear frontrunner, with Critics Choice and Golden Globes wins and a ton of general goodwill. But the other major precursors really muddled things, with Kerry Condon winning the BAFTA and Jamie Lee Curtis snagging the SAG. So it's really anyone's award for the taking amongst those three. (Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu are both clearly also-rans at this point.) There's no real consensus among prognosticators. Can Bassett fend off the other two as the perceived frontrunner? Will Curtis be tipped as a quasi–lifetime achievement award? Will Condon be the beneficiary of the perception that this category is the best way to reward Banshees? That last narrative makes the most sense to me, so I'll go with a minor upset and say Kerry Condon will take the statue. I'd be fine with her or Bassett, but I don't see the likeable Curtis as deserving, so it would be a little annoying if she won.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Condon, 2) Chau, 3) Bassett, 4) Hsu, 5) Curtis
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
This one is the easiest call of the major categories, and perhaps the only true lock—Ke Huy Quan will win here for his tender, funny work in his first major acting role in over two decades. This one was never really in doubt since the beginning of awards season, with Quan winning just about every precursor with the lone exception of the BAFTA, which, of course, went to one of the Inisherin boys (Barry Keoghan). I actually slightly prefer Brendan Gleeson's performance, but will be quite happy when Quan wins. As for the other two, Brian Tyree Henry was quite good, but I have a hard time understanding Judd Hirsch's inclusion—he's literally in the movie for less than 10 minutes. Surely Paul Dano's performance was more worthy?
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Gleeson, 2) Quan, 3) Henry, 4) Keoghan, 5) Hirsch
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Okay, this one *should* go to Michelle Yeoh, but it's hardly a shoo-in. Yeoh does have the National Board of Review, the Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical), and the critical SAG, but Cate Blanchett can match the Globe (Drama) and add the Critics Choice and BAFTA (figures; she basically counts as British as an Aussie). There's at least a debate here, one that many Academy voters have surely had internally in the past few weeks. My personal preference is, barely, Blanchett, but I'll actually be fairly miffed if she does take it—she already has two statues and Yeoh's win would be so much more meaningful as the first Asian woman to win this major category. The gap in the technical merits of each performance is small enough that I'm more than willing to overlook it and earnestly root for Yeoh here, especially since we all know that Oscars aren't really bestowed for purely meritorious reasons. The other performances aren't really worth discussing in depth, but here's a few words—Ana de Armas did her absolute best in the face of misguided writing and direction, Andrea Riseborough played a stock character about as well as could be hoped, and Michelle Williams is one of my favorite working actresses but this performance did absolutely nothing for me.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Yeoh, 2) Blanchett, 3) de Armas, 4) Riseborough, 5) Williams
Best Actor
Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
To me, the two best lead acting performances of 2022 are, by far, Paul Mescal and Colin Farrell. But, evidently, I was not consulted, so my opinion is sadly moot. So the actual race seems to be between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler, with Farrell as a horse so dark that it would be quite difficult to see it at night. Nighy gets a resume-padding courtesy nomination, while this is hopefully Mescal's first nomination of many. As with Bassett, Fraser has been the presumptive frontrunner for much of this awards season, nabbing the Critics Choice and SAG, along with a host of smaller trophies. But Butler won the Globe (Drama) and BAFTA and really seems to have a ton of momentum on his side of late. It really could go either way—Vegas has Fraser as the slight favorite at -160 with Butler not far off at +105. What to do? I think I'm going to play it safe, unlike Supporting Actress, and stick with Brendan Fraser. The narrative of him capping his comeback (briefly leaving acting after being groped by the head of the Golden Globes) with an Oscar is just a great narrative, even if I prefer Butler's performance. (Plus, young men rarely win this category, and Butler is 31.) I won't be mad if I'm wrong, though—especially if Farrell somehow pulls off the shocker. Butler would make a fine winner, though.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Mescal, 2) Farrell, 3) Butler, 4) Fraser, 5) Nighy
Best Adapted Screenplay
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living
Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie – Top Gun: Maverick
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Women Talking is the nominal favorite here, but even with the WGA and Critics Choice, it's hardly a juggernaut. AQotWF is very much in play here after winning the BAFTA and NBR. I can't fathom why—it's at least least the third adaptation of the WWI novel and has nothing new or interesting to say about literally anything. (It's marvelous from a technical standpoint, though.) A win by any of the other nominees would be a pretty big upset, especially Living, but I don't think I'd really be shocked if Glass Onion (Johnson is a previous nominee) or Maverick (Hollywood really seems to love it) won. But I guess I'll just go chalk here and go with Sarah Polley for Women Talking. I think a win for AQonWF would be disappointing—and a potential harbinger of disaster for Best Picture. It's within the realm of possibility, though.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Women Talking, 2) Glass Onion, 3) Top Gun: Maverick, 4) Living, 5) All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Screenplay
Todd Field – Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans
If EEAAO is going to have the kind of night everyone thinks it's going to, this category will be a key cog. The spoiler would be Martin McDonagh for Banshees, and he has very decent +100 odds at this late hour. My preference would be neither—Todd Field's Tár screenplay would get my vote by far. But, as previously established, I don't get a vote, so I'm left with choosing between EEAAO and Banshees. And as much as I'd be tickled by a Banshees win—I think it's the (slightly) superior script—I think Kwan and Scheinert will take this category. Which will be just fine with me—love the movie, love the script. Not particularly bothered that I think Field and McDonagh had slightly superior work. A rogue win for Östlund or Spielberg/Kushner wouldn't sit very well, though. Good thing neither is particularly likely. But an upset loss here for EEAAO wouldn't necessarily bode well for as easy Best Picture win.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Field, 2) McDonagh, 3) Kwan and Scheinert, 4) Östlund, 5) Spielberg and Kushner
Best Director
Todd Field – Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are huge favorites here, and will likely take the statue(s). They won just a massive amount of regional critic awards, the Critics Choice, and, most importantly, the DGA. Spielberg, their closest competition, did win the Globe and NBR, but he already has two Best Director Oscars and Fabelmans wasn't nearly as well received as EEAAO. It would be a major, major upset if SPielberg won. (Note that the BAFTA went to Edward Berger for AQotWF, who wasn't nominated here.) None of the other three have any realistic chance, even the deserving Field (who'd get my vote), McDonagh (who will be back, perhaps even as a winner someday), and Östlund (almost certainly the final name in the field).
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Field, 2) Kwan and Scheinert, 3) McDonagh, 4) Spielberg, 5) Östlund
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
How the ceremony—and the year in cinema itself, potentially—will be remembered all depends on how this category turns out. If Everything Everywhere All at Once wins as expected, as it should, and as I think it will, all will be right with the world of film. Almost everyone likes EEAAO (even if not everyone loves it), and it's a unique genre (sci-fi/martial arts/comedy) with a mostly Asian cast that was well reviewed and made over $100M at the box office. It would be a monumental win and a real signal that the stodgy (real: old and white) Academy has truly changed. And there's no real reason to think EEAAO won't win: it won the PGA, DGA, SAG, Critics Choice, and tons of other minor precursors. It did lose the Globe (Musical/Comedy) to Banshees (Fabelmans won Drama) and BAFTA to AQotWF, but all that really says is that the movie didn't exactly resonate with Europeans, which isn't particularly relevant to this race. (The other major precursor, the NBR, went to Top Gun: Maverick.) EEAAO has the resume of a clear winner and I don't see any of the other nominees as having enough backing to pull off the upset.
But EEAAO can't be considered a true lock, and if you do enough digging on Film Twitter and among prognosticators, there's a slight sense out there that disaster is possible. The only question is which of the other nominees could usurp EEAAO. Several have no chance whatsoever: Avatar, Elvis, Triangle, and Women. They're just happy to be here. My personal #1 film of the year, Tár, is VERY well regarded critically and you might be able to see some sort of path to a shocking win if you squint hard enough... but, no, it's not happening. Fabelmans has a couple big things in its favor—it's Spielberg, and it's about the movies—but it's time has come and gone in this race and should be little more than an also-ran. As I mentioned above, Maverick won the NBR and even saved the movies, and would make for a pretty audacious surprise win, but it doesn't have the nominations needed in other major categories.
That leaves us with two films that could potentially shock the cinematic world tonight: Banshees and AQotWF. Banshees has all the right nominations in the other major categories (Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress) and did beat EEAAO head-to-head at the Globes. If there's some strange contingent among voters that just doesn't want to see EEAAO win (that stodgy element), Banshees could benefit. Were that to happen, it'd be the wrong decision to be sure, but it's still a great movie, so it wouldn't be a complete disaster... which is exactly what it would be if AQotWF were to win. I think the WWI drama is a Fine Motion Picture—and it's exceedingly well made from a technical standpoint—but it's completely devoid of depth, of ingenuity, of anything interesting to say to contemporary audiences and cineastes. But its seven wins at the BAFTAs can't be totally ignored—this movie clearly has its proponents, for some reason. If an even stodgier contingent has any kind of sway, utter disaster is possible.
Fortunately, I don't think that'll happen. The Academy had a very similar choice back in 2020 when Parasite won over yet another WWI movie that inexplicably had a ton of backers, 1917. The Academy made the objectively correct choice then, and there is no real reason to think it won't do so again. But this is also the same body that picked Green Book over Roma and The King's Speech over The Social Network, so you never really know. EEAAO *should* win tonight, but you have to at least explore the possibility that it won't.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Tár, 2) Avatar: The Way of Water, 3) Everything Everywhere All at Once, 4) The Banshees of Inisherin, 5) Top Gun: Maverick, 6) Women Talking, 7) Triangle of Sadness, 8) All Quiet on the Western Front, 9) Elvis, 10) The Fabelmans
As usual, LIGHTNING ROUND for the non-major categories. I'm very glad that all these awards will be televised again this year, as they all deserve to be.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) – directed by Edward Berger
At -3500, this is the biggest favorite on the board and will easily win this category. This is the only nominee I've seen, so I'll have to abstain from "voting." But how the fuck was RRR not nominated?
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have only seen one of the nominees)
Best Animated Feature Film
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio – directed by Guillermo del Toro and Mark Gustafson
This is another huge favorite at -2000. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish are very, very long shots to upset GDT.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
Best Documentary Feature
Navalny – directed by Daniel Roher
So says the internets. As usual, I haven't seen any of the nominated films. As I understand it, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Fire of Love are possibilities for spoiler.
My Non-Existent Vote:
Best Cinematography
James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front
Is AQotWF this year's Dune, sweeping all the technical categories? It seems fairly likely. Mandy Walker for Elvis has a real shot here, though, so watch out for that.
My Non-Existent Vote: Florian Hoffmeister – Tár
Best Editing
Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once
This seems to be a two-horse race between EEAAO and Top Gun: Maverick, but Rogers work is more impressive and Maverick should take Best Sound so voters may pass on it here.
My Non-Existent Vote: Rogers
Best Original Score
Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front
This might be the toughest category on the board to predict. Justin Hurwitz's Babylon score is superior but the movie itself isn't well loved. EEAAO and Fabelmans are frisky longshots.
My Non-Existent Vote: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
Best Original Song
"Naatu Naatu" – M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose (from RRR)
Don't completely discount Lady Gaga ("Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick) and Rihanna ("Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), but this is a JAM and the only nomination for RRR.
My Non-Existent Vote: "Naatu Naatu"
Best Sound
Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor – Top Gun: Maverick
AQotWF is a definite possibility here—tech voters obviously adore it—but they like Maverick as well, and this looks like the best bet to make sure it gets a statue.
My Non-Existent Vote: Weingarten, Mather, Nelson, Burdon, and Taylor
Best Visual Effects
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett – Avatar: The Way of Water
Avatar doesn't have a real challenger—the VFX are just jaw-dropping, pushing the industry forward in the same way the first one did. Maverick and Black Panther are longshots, but Avatar is peerless here.
My Non-Existent Vote: Letteri, Baneham, Saindon, and Barrett
Best Production Design
Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino – Babylon
This seems to be neck and neck between Babylon and Elvis. While I could easily see Babylon going home empty-handed, I could also see voters going for it here while giving Costume Design to Elvis.
My Non-Existent Vote: Martin and Carlino
Best Costume Design
Catherine Martin – Elvis
This could easily go to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for Ruth Carter, but this could be the best chance to reward Elvis, which is obviously well liked, if Butler doesn't win Actor.
My Non-Existent Vote: Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti – Elvis
This is a toss up between Elvis and The Whale. When in doubt, go with the Best Picture nominee (which also has the flashier work). But pairing this with Best Actor for Frasure is definitely possible.
My Non-Existent Vote: Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine – The Batman
Best Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye – directed by Tom Berkeley and Ross White
It will either be this or Le pupille by well-regarded Italian filmmaker Alice Rohrwacher (and produced by Alfonso Cuarón). But Goodbye is much more accessible and audience-friendly, so let's go with it.
My Non-Existent Vote: An Irish Goodbye
Best Animated Short
My Year of Dicks – directed by Sara Gunnarsdóttir
This was EASILY the best of a weak crop of animated shorts. I REFUSE to believe the Academy will go for trite bullshit like The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, but it is considered the frontrunner.
My Non-Existent Vote: My Year of Dicks
Best Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers – Kartiki Gonsalves
This, Stranger at the Gate, and Haulout seem to be the frontrunners over the other two. This one is on Netflix, so it seems likelier that more voters have seen it, so that's what I'll go with.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
Again: My number to top is 20/23, which I don't see happening with so many close races. I'd settle for at least 7/8 in the major categories and a few misses in the rest of the categories. I'll be cheering most for EEAAO in the major categories, "Naatu Naatu," and My Year of Dicks. We'll begin to find out the winners in about an hour and a half. Can't wait!
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