It's a little later than expected, as the nominations announcement was delayed by a week due to the L.A. wildfires, but Oscar nominations morning is finally almost here. At least the delay gave him time to do a bit more research, as I was able to catch up with The Brutalist, which seems to be the Best Picture frontrunner at the moment, as well as next year's Best Picture winner, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera. (Only half-kidding.) The Brutalist is definitely a different—and not as strong—frontrunner than Oppenheimer was at this time last year, and may of the top categories seem more unsettled in what seems to be seen as a much weaker year for cinema than 2023 was. I'm not sure I agree with that sentiment, but I will say that the Best Picture slate probably won't be as strong as last year's group. With that in mind, let's try to piece together what the top eight categories might look like in the morning, with the nominees listed in presumed order of likelihood. I think I got 40/45 last year, which I can't imagine equaling this year, much less topping, but let's give it a whirl!
^ = early winner prediction
Peter Straughan – Conclave^
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez*
James Mangold and Jay Cocks – A Complete Unknown
Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox – Wicked
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Other contenders:
Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega – I’m Still Here*
Jon Spaihts – Dune: Part Two
To me, it looks like the top three are locks, with the next three fighting for the final two spots. Conclave and, apparently, Emilia Perez figure to be among the most-nominated films, with A Complete Unknown not too far behind. They seem like pretty safe bets, which means another movie likely to be nominated, Wicked, will be duking it out with several smaller films. As Academy membership continues to grow and diversify, their voting tendencies get harder and harder to predict, with seemingly more room for indies like Nickel Boys and Sing Sing (and potentially I'm Still Here), while nominations for box office smashes like Wicked can no longer be seen as a sure thing. (And, I mean, it's an adaptation of half a musical that was itself adapted from a book.) But the box office still drives Hollywood, so I think only one of the smaller films breaks through. Let's go with Nickel Boys, which seems to have more momentum, for now, but I wouldn't be surprised by any combination of those three films, or even I'm Still Here sneaking in.
Wishful thinking: Justin Kuritzkes – Queer, Nico Lathouris and George Miller – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Other contenders:
If this is the actual field, I'd be incredibly happy—these are all among my favorite movies of the year. I've long been a fan of Sean Baker, who should finally get his first nomination (still can't believe he wasn't nominated for *anything* for The Florida Project). Faraget wasn't new to me—I quite liked Revenge, but The Substance was a massive level up. I'm obviously more familiar with Eisenberg's work as an actor, but A Real Pain is excellent and he has a promising career ahead of him as a writer/director. The Brutalist is a massive achievement, but comparatively less due to its script, although it would make a fine winner. Those four seem like locks, and the fifth nominee could be any of the other four listed (or something cool I don't even know about). I'm going more with my heart than my head in Challengers (probably the best movie of 2024 of those I've seen so far), but it has a real shot and I just don't know which of the other contenders has the best shot, having not seen any of them. Preparing to be minorly disappointed if Challengers misses out, but I'm sure the others are all great.
Wishful thinking: Jeremy Saulnier – Rebel Ridge, Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow
If you read the tea leaves (i.e., follow the precursor awards and read Oscar blogs), you can usually predict 4/5 nominees in these major categories pretty reliably. That's why I'm always saying something like "Pretty confident in the top four" or "The top four seem like locks." I say this now because, yeah, the top four seem like very likely nominees. Saldana basically already has this award won, Grande has been nominated for just about every precursor you could think of, Rossellini and is a beloved veteran "due" for her first nomination (even though she's in the movie for about 5 minutes total), and Jones is a previous nominee in the Best Picture frontrunner. If my logic is right (it may not be!), that leaves one nomination left between what is looking more and more like Curtis and Qualley. Curtis is probably one of the worst recent acting award winners but she's very well liked, while Qualley is a rising star whose movie seems to be surging of late. I'll be rooting for Qualley but I have a feeling it'll be Curtis snagging the nom instead.
Wishful thinking: Brigette Lundy-Paine – I Saw the TV Glow, Adria Arjona – Hit Man
Of all the categories so far, I feel most confident in this one. Like Saldaña, Culkin has this category all but in the bag for his first major role after Succession. (He's fantastic.) The relatively unknown Borisov is a key cog in what makes Anora work and should snag a nom. Pearce delivers a perhaps career-best performance in The Brutalist and should secure his first-ever nomination. Norton was my favorite part of the just-okay Unknown and should pick up his fourth-ever nom. Joining those four should be Strong, like Culkin for his first major post-Succession role, although his Trump-centric film might be a tough sell as he does his best to burn our country down here in 2025. If anyone were to play spoiler, it would likely be Maclin, who was partially the real-life inspiration for his film. Tucci and Washington both once seemed like surefire nominees but seem more like also-rans now.
Wishful thinking: Chris Hemsworth - Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Casey Affleck – The Instigators
Say it with me: four "locks" and a "who knows?" The statue appears to be Moore's to lose at this point after her showstopping acceptance speech at the Golden Globes—which is just insane given that she's in one of the gnarliest horror movies of the year. (She'd be totally deserving.) Once upon a time Madison was anointed as the future winner, but she'd be a worthy runner up—and someone who may return someday. Erivo is deserving of a nomination even if I didn't care for her movie (decidedly NOT a musical fan). I also don't hear good things about Emilia Pérez, but it's looking like I'll get to find out for myself. Joy. The final nomination is seemingly coming down to Jean-Baptiste or Torres, as megastars Jolie and Kidman have fallen by the wayside. This is a true coinflip, but I'm going with Jean-Baptiste, whose performance is supposedly a knockout in a movie that is likely more widely seen.
Wishful thinking: Zendeya – Challengers, Willa Fitzgerald – Strange Darling
This category is remarkably similar to Best Actress—clear frontrunner, three other near-locks, tough call for the fifth spot, some big names as also-rans. Here, we have Brody looking like a good bet for his second Oscar—and first nomination since that win in 2003. Chalamet's Bob Dylan impression (he's much better as a singer than an actor in the role) will be battling with Fiennes scheming cardinal (he's great) and Colman's acclaimed turn for second place. That would seem to leave one spot for either Stan or Craig (it would be great to see Grant nominated for another horror movie and Eisenberg is quite good, but neither seem to have much of a shot). I've only seen Craig's film, and he's excellent in it, but neither he nor the film seem to have much buzz, whereas I've been hearing a lot about Stan and his movie (for probably obvious reasons). So I'll go with him over Craig for that final spot—and he's more than deserving, from what I hear. I may have to see for myself soon.
Wishful thinking: David Dastmalchian – Late Night with the Devil, Aaron Pierre – Rebel Ridge
This has become the toughest major category to predict, as the director's branch has a penchant for going a bit wild card, especially with international nominees. I've got three of them in the field—Audiard, who is almost assured a nomination; Berger, who seems safe for his next project after the well-regarded All Quiet on the Western Front remake; and Fargeat, who figures to be in a battle with Mangold for the fifth slot. Two other Americans, frontrunner Corbet and Baker, seem like locks. (Corbet would get my vote here, but I'd vote for Baker over him in Original Screenplay.) Fargeat vs. Mangold almost seems like a referendum of new Academy vs. old Academy. I have Fargeat and new Academy winning that battle, but the old Academy still surprises me sometimes (Curtis's Best Supporting Actress win a couple years ago comes to mind.) That said, true out-of-left-field nominees are always possible here, so keep an eye on Kapadia.
Wishful thinking: Luca Guadagnino – Challengers/Queer, Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow
Last year I actually got all 10 predicted nominees correct. I'm not expecting to repeat that, but I feel pretty good about the first nine here, with everything through Dune more or less a lock, and The Substance and A Real Pain are looking really good, too. Those would make a decent field, although like I said above not quite as strong as last year's, which had really only Maestro as a quasi–weak link. Frontrunner Brutalist, Anora, Substance, and Dune are all varying degrees of great, while Conclave and Pain are both very good themselves. Unknown was merely fine. I did not care for Wicked and am not holding out any hope I'll like Pérez. Fairly solid overall; there have definitely been worse Best Picture slates (I'm looking at you, 2021). Oh, and I haven't forgotten about the tenth nominee, which seems to be between Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. I obviously haven't seen either (hear good things!) and it seems to be a true toss-up. Going with Sing Sing due to seeing it on more predictions lists. I'm sure I'll wind up seeing both to be able to say which is actually more deserving.
Wishful thinking: Challengers, Queer, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Rebel Ridge
It's just after 10:00 p.m. here in Arizona, which is quite early for this post—it's usually not done until after midnight. Progress! Tomorrow morning, I'll mainly be rooting for Challengers to get nominated for anything (it seems to have a great shot in Best Score). My true #1 of last year, The Beekeeper, will obviously be rudely shut out. I'll write more about those two and more in my annual Fake Oscars in the next few weeks. For now, my number to beat from last year is 40/45, which I doubt happens. I'll be happy with 38/45 or so. We'll find out in eight hours or so! Thanks for reading in the meantime.
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