I've procrastinated a bit too long this year -- I blame Richard Linklater. The final major category nominee that I hadn't seen was Before Midnight, so of course I had two watch the first two movies (Before Sunrise and Before Sunset) before I could check that final box off. (It's a tremendous trilogy if you haven't seen the films.) So now that I've seen everything, I can make my predictions in earnest. Unfortunately, I've also got a party to prepare for, so I'm going to attempt to do these as quickly as possible. Here we go.
PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Hawkins and Roberts were both very good in movies I did not care for overall, but they have no shot here. Squibb was wonderful as a potty-mouthed grandmother in an underappreciated film and is the de facto third choice, but only has the slimmest of chances (read: negligible). So it comes down to last year's winner, Lawrence, and first-time nominee Nyong'o. This one is very, very close. While I'm hoping for (and predicting) that the Academy goes with the far (far) superior performance in Nyong'o, I'm also fully prepared for them to re-crown America's newest sweetheart. I can already feel the Hathawayan (aren't made-up words fun!) backlash brewing...
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Get ready to say it with me a few times: Lock it down. Quite a few of the major categories seem to be in little doubt this year. (This will help keep these write-ups short, thankfully.) It would be shocking if anyone but Leto won the award for his conflicted trans woman in the message-heavy Dallas Buyers Club. While he wouldn't get my vote (that would be Abdi or perhaps Hill), his work was solid and of the type that traditionally wins these things. Fassbender was fiery and will absolutely have a trophy some day, but he didn't bother to campaign and a win for him would be problematic, given the role and film. Cooper was fine but just... no. Nice perm though.
Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Number two: Lock it in. This award has been Blanchett's to lose since the film opened. As I said above, I didn't care for the film overall (the only decent human being was Hawkins's character), but Blanchett was committed (probably in multiple ways, given the ending) and will add this to her probably-undeserved Supporting Oscar for The Aviator (but she should have won for I'm Not There, so it's a wash). If anyone could upset here, it's Adams, who might be "due" in the eyes of some voters (not to mention that some voters might not vote for Blanchett due to the whole Woody Allen thing -- which I'm not getting into here). We'll know if she has a shot after some of the earlier-night categories. Bullock was great and, win or not, the performance validates her win for the schlocky The Blind Side. Dench was perfunctorily good and Streep is probably still picking scenery out of her teeth. Neither should figure into the race.
Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
For a third time: Lock it in. The McConaissance should continue with a trophy for Wooderson, as has been presumed for months. The vaguely-defined and DeLillo-esque "Oscar buzz" seems to favor DiCaprio over Ejiofor for the role of challenger. Both are excellent -- better even than McConaughey -- but performance seems to be taking a backseat to narrative here. Plus, it's easy to envision both of them winning in the near future. (Leo has a Kate Winslet special make-up award coming soon, I can feel it.) Dern might actually be my favorite of the bunch, but the hill is too steep to climb for the old man. And Bale (who was fine, I guess) robbed multiple other more worthy actors of a nomination (notably Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips). Regardless, I can't wait for McConaughey's victory speech. Maybe he does it in character as
Rust Cohle (by far a better performance than the one he'll be winning
for)? Let's hope he breaks off a "If the only thing keeping a person decent is the expectation of an Academy Award then, brother, that person is a piece of shit."
Best Adapted Screenplay
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave
Terence Winter, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Feels like the fourth time: Lock it in. I can't see Ridley, for a film the Academy loved (9 total nominations, good for second-most) losing to one it merely liked. Ray doesn't seem to have a chance for his merely solid work, and the two best of the bunch -- Linklater, Delpy, and Hawk and Winter -- don't seem to have much of that "momentum" stuff Oscar winners need at this point. A shame two, as they're both excellent scripts. (Before Midnight especially -- it's a sucker-punch straight to the ventricles.) The primary challenger, for reasons I cannot understand, seems to be Coogan and Pope's work on Philomena, a thoroughly maudlin piece of awards-baiting pap. I liked the movie okay, but it shouldn't be anywhere near a Best-anything conversation. That leaves Ridley for a movie where the premise and actors (and director) did most of the work, but, hey, someone had to write it.
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Finally, an interesting category! At the moment, I still have not bolded my predicted winner. This is probably even closer than Supporting Actress -- even GoldDerby is evenly split on who will win. I'm of two minds about this one. Jonze's script for Her is the obviously superior entry, and it clearly has a lot of support. I want it to win. But Singer and Russell's American Hustle script seems like the more obvious winner given the pedigree of the film (10 total noms, tied for most with Gravity) and the love the Academy seems to have for Russell. It's also not nearly as good as Her. So it really comes down to quality vs. quantity. What a quandary! Looking back at previous winners doesn't help -- the Academy is often unpredictable in this category (even Tarantino was surprised he won last year). So, that in mind, I'm going with... Russell and Singer for American Hustle. It just seems to have too much support for Jonze to surmount, even with the WGA award in hand, and this might be the best shot Hustle has for a major award. (Although if Lawrence wins, I think Her has a better shot here, oddly.) I'd be happy to be wrong though.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf Of Wall Street
One final "Lock it in" before the big one. Although McQueen lurks as a very viable spoiler, Cuarón will be a very deserving winner for his virtuoso work on Gravity -- there was not a more singular achievement at any level of filmmaking in 2013. McQueen is a powerful, fast-rising dramatic filmmaker who will probably have one of these someday. The "hanging tree" scene has probably stuck in a lot of voters' heads, although I can see that hurting as much as helping his chances here. Payne, Russell, and Scorsese have all been here before and will likely be here again. I'd rank them Scorsese, Payne, then Russell, but none have a real chance here.
Best Picture
12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf Of Wall Street
This is our third and final contentious major category of the evening, although I don't think it's as close as Supporting Actress or Original Screenplay. Of the nominees, only three are actual contenders -- Slave, Gravity, and Hustle, and in that order. We'll get to them in a minute. Of the rest, they vary from excellent (Wolf, Phillips, Her) to very good (Nebraska) to mediocre or worse (Dallas, Philomena). Back to the actual contenders. Hustle seems to have faded and has settled into third place (although this isn't the Olympics, so there's no medal for third) but is still a threat for some major awards. It comes down to 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity then. At this point, the "Oscar buzz" seems to be tipping toward 12 Years a Slave, and at this point, I'm not inclined to disagree. It's the more emotionally resonant film and likely has the support of the largest branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the Actors' branch, by virtue of its having a cast of more than two. It'd be a fine winner, at times both stately and harrowing, and would give white Hollywood a chance to pat itself on the back (which it always enjoys). Still, I'd prefer the sheer marvel of Gravity and its bold leap forward to the future of cinema rather than a painful (albeit necessary) look back to the past. But I guess it all comes down to why you go to the movies in the first place, and what you feel the best cinema should do or say. But that's a much bigger debate for another time. We'll know where Hollywood stands after tonight.
And we're done. Came in almost 1000 words shorter than last year -- all right, all right, all right. Now, a separate post for the remaining categories. Check it out, if you're into that sort of thing. Thanks, as always, for reading.
Wherein I ramble about music, film, literature, sports, etc. As if you could care less.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
The Year of Excess: My Favorite 2013 Films
If 2013 wasn't exactly a great year for music (it wasn't), it *was* a great year for film. It might even have been the best year since I've been in this blogging game. There were excellent films to be found at every level of filmmaking, from low-budget, true life dramas (The Bling Ring, Fruitvale Station) and hyper-stylized indie thrillers (Only God Forgives, Upstream Color), to awards-season prestige pictures (American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club) and big-budget blockbusters (Fast & Furious 6, Pacific Rim). And I would of course be remiss to mention the much-anticipated (and largely hilarious) return of Ron Burgundy and the news team. But here's the thing about the films of 2013 -- none of these films even cracked my honorable mentions. Ditto solid new films from Pedro Almodóvar, Steven Soderbergh, Ridley Scott, Rob Zombie, and a host of others from across the budget/genre spectrum. And even the Oscar voters mostly got it right, with only one Best Picture nominee being what I would consider a clear miss (Philomena). That said, let's get to the important stuff -- my Best Pictures list. We'll start with the honorable mentions, a formidable top-ten (well, nine) list in their own right.
HONORABLE MENTIONS (in alphabetical order):
12 Years a Slave, Drug War, The East, Inside Llewyn Davis, Much Ado About Nothing, Mud, Nebraska, Stoker, This Is the End
10) Iron Man 3 / Thor: The Dark World
Directed by: Shane Black / Alan Taylor
Written by: Drew Pearce and Shane Black / Christopher Yost, Christopher Markus, and Stephen McFeely
Starring: Robert Downey, Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Ben Kingsley / Chris Hemsworth, Natalie Portman, Tom Hiddleston
As is tradition, we begin with a tie. Both Marvel offerings would have been firm honorable mentions on their own, but with their powers combined they were able to crack the top ten. Hey, half of the Avengers who matter is still a pretty potent combo. I'll admit both films have pretty huge flaws -- Iron Man's third act is laughable to the point of absurdity, and although it's an improvement on the first movie, there is still about *ZERO* chemistry between Hemsworth and Portman in Thor -- but they are blockbusters done right. Both deliver their thrills with wit and panache (as opposed to, say, the dour and convoluted Star Trek Into Darkness and the, let's see, what's the right adjective... fucking terrible Man of Steel). The Iron Man franchise was starting to look a little rusted over with the second movie, but Shane Black made the franchise sparkle once again with his lively script and slapstick direction. RDJ is well-versed with Black's nimble dialogue (all hail Kiss Kiss Bang Bang), and Ben Kingsley's take on the Mandarin was one of my favorite comedic performances of the year -- indeed, Iron Man 3 is funnier than most comedies released last year. (For the record, most people hated the kid, but I didn't mind him at all). And while the ending set piece was just too much (although not nearly as bad as those in Darkness and Steel), the airplane sequence was just on the right side of ludicrous. Speaking of ending set pieces, Thor was one of the few action movies to do it right -- the teleporting hammer and frost monster running amok were perfect comedic touches. And while Hemsworth and Portman may not be the most charismatic leads, co-stars Hiddleston and Kat Dennings more than make up for it. Of the two, Dark World is my favorite despite a second-act lull -- but they both do what they're supposed to: make me amped for Avengers 2. Next up? Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Will it, too, best the previous installment?
9) Drinking Buddies
Directed by: Joe Swanberg
Written by: Joe Swanberg
Starring: Jake Johnson, Olivia Wilde, Anna Kendrick, Ron Livingston
We go from perhaps the loudest movies on my list (although, spoilers, Michael Bay does make an appearance) to perhaps the quietest. In fact, the dramatic weight of Drinking Buddies is almost entirely based on what *isn't* said -- namely, the obvious attraction between Chicago brewery employees Luke (Johnson) and Kate (Wilde). That both are in relationships when the movie begins is complicated enough, but the real complication --and a theme that runs through the movie like a yeasty undercurrent -- is the ubiquitous presence of alcohol. Just about every scene in the movie prominently features characters either making plans to drink, drinking, or in the clutches of a miserable hangover. In many ways, this cycle of drinking matches the stages of a relationship, and Drinking Buddies runs the gamut in that regard too -- both with Luke's and Kate's respective relationships and their relationship with each other. Although Kendrick (as Johnson's teacher girlfriend) and Livingston (Wilde's boyfriend) do their best with severely underwritten characters (one of the downsides to a mostly improvised script), it is the relationship between Luke and Kate that is by far the most interesting and relatable. Johnson's transformation from sympathetic shoulder to cry on to sanctimonious asshole (and back again) is remarkably true to life (been there), as is Wilde's conflicted, uninhibited party girl (also been there). Both actors give startlingly vivid, empathetic performances not suggested by their previous work ("the other guy from New Girl" and "hot girl in that crappy movie," respectively). Of course, the maestro behind it all is the indie "It Guy" of last year: Swanberg. The only other directorial effort I've seen of his was a fairly forgettable vignette in the first V/H/S, but if any of his other features are even half as soulful and raw as this, I'm sure they're worth checking out. (Note to self: Keep an eye on the Netflix streaming list.)
8) Spring Breakers
Directed by: Harmony Korine
Written by: Harmony Korine
Starring: Vanessa Hudgens, Anna Benson, Rachel Korine, Selena Gomez, James Franco
I'll admit, my reasons for seeing this were almost entirely prurient at first. Just look at the poster -- it looked like a Skinemax flick with a slightly larger budget. There were four of us in the theater that Saturday afternoon: myself, my two friends, and the solitary creeper in the row in front of us. I mean, this guy looked like the kind of guy who would cut a hole in the popcorn tub at a movie by himself. But I couldn't really blame him -- Spring Breakers looked it it was going to be *that* kind of movie. It had been a gossip-page mainstay since pre-production and the trailers were heavy on the sleaze, prominently featuring salacious exploitation of Disney starlets and shots of James Franco's leering grill. The movie wound up delivering on all the above in spades: the sleaze, the exploitation, the grill. But it was the way it went about delivering its titillations that stayed with me much longer than any of the obvious visceral thrills. For all its debauchery, Spring Breakers is a *beautiful* movie -- brightly lit, perfectly staged, swathed in neon, all lushly photographed. Imagine if Gordon Willis got his start in music videos. (I'll readily admit that would not have been a good thing -- but it really worked here.) Then there's the music -- this is the one and only time I approve of the use of (much less the existence of) dubstep. What other genre could so perfectly score such a grotesque caricature of youthful esurience and excess? Also, you'll never think of Britney Spears's "Everytime" quite the same way again after Franco's be-tatted and -grilled rendition. Finally, the element that stayed with me the longest -- and eventually merited its inclusion in this list -- is the film's structure. (Read: editing.) This is a film that unfolds at its own pace and resists at every turn the temptation to succumb to the rigid plotting that plagues most Hollywood fare. No, Spring Breakers plays out more like a chromatic fever dream, an atonal and slyly rhythmic reverie rather than the trashy exploitation flick that was promised. I walked into the theater expecting little more than T 'n' A, and wound up getting something approaching... art?
7) Her
Directed by: Spike Jonze
Written by: Spike Jonze
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Scarlett Johansson, Amy Adams, Rooney Mara
Her was the final entry to make this list -- a function of it not coming out until the middle of January in Arizona. I had a chance to see it in California at the end of December, but I wound up seeing what would wind up being the #1 movie on this list, so I can't say I made the wrong choice. But while it might have been a late entry, it was also always destined to make this list. Let's see: Kaufman protégé writing and directing? Check. Subtle sci-fi premise? Check. L.A. setting? Check. Mustache on the poster? Check. But most importantly of all, it features the man who would very likely get my vote for Finest Actor Working Today (especially since PSH died -- R.I.P.): Joaquin Phoenix. I thought cinema had lost a startling and rare talent when he appeared to go off the deep end (for Casey Affleck's I'm Still Here, which I still haven't seen), but then he came roaring back in 2012 with, in my estimation, one of the most gripping and visceral performances in at least a couple decades in The Master, in which he managed to out-act his main competition for the above-mentioned title, co-star PSH and, well, the master himself, Daniel Day-Lewis (in the once-overrated, now properly-rated Lincoln). After his Oscar robbery, Phoenix continued his hot streak (in NBA Jam terms, "he's heating up!") by doing a rare inward 180° turn in Her. In The Master, his Freddie Quell was almost spring-loaded, all twitch and explosion -- intensely physical work. Here, his Theodore Twombly is a much more cerebral presence, prone to pensive gazes and half-smiles -- there is real softness and Kirk Lazarus-ian "emotionality." It's not as strong work as Quell, but certainly worthy of an Oscar nomination in a mediocre year, lead actor-wise (cough*Bale*cough). Regardless, I can't wait to see him in Paul Thomas Anderson's Inherent Vice later this year. As far as Her as a whole goes, yes, it can be overly twee at times, and, no, the "sex scene" doesn't work, but it is perhaps the most honest exploration of modern relationships since its spiritual predecessor, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. And that's no faint praise coming from an Apple hater and confirmed cynic. But I am, of course, ignoring the film's crowning achievement: bringing high-waisted pants back! (Or were they ever in?)
6) Pain & Gain
Directed by: Michael Bay
Written by: Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely
Starring: Mark Wahlberg, Dwayne Johnson, Anthony Mackie, Tony Shalhoub, Ed Harris
Pain & Gain should be subtitled "In Which Michael Bay Interrogates the American Dream." I know, I know, Fitzgerald or Welles he may not be, but I'd like to think Mr. Bay knows a thing or two about 'Merica (alternately, see my Facebook cover photo). American films were very much concerned with excess this year (and if you don't believe me, just listen to A.O. Scott), but possibly none was as honest as P&G (as the initiated call it). Luhrmann's Gatsby and Korine's Spring Breakers were both fictional and rooted in opulent fantasy, and of the three true-to-life stories, Coppola's Bling Ring never went deeper than designer labels, Russell's Hustle (which would've been a great title) was too convoluted to really analyze character motivation, and Scorsese's Wolf of Wall Street was too concerned with satire (the biting nature of which sometimes wound up taking a chunk out of its own ass). While not the best of these commonly-themed films, P&G nevertheless presents the most credible portrayal of the consequences of pure, raw, foaming-at-the-mouth greed. That's a tall claim considering that this is by far the most outlandish of the "based on a true story" films, but the characters (okay, caricatures) here aren't self-centered teens, fast-talking con men, or charismatic hustlers. No, Daniel "I Believe in Fitness" Lugo, Paul Doyle, and Adrian Doorbal are blue-collar schmucks, meatheads with goals no more grand than owning a gym or getting a bigger dick. Their greed is palpable and utterly banal, unlike the conceptual or even idealized avarice present in the other films. And, also unlike the other films, these guys suffer consequences harsher than not getting the girl or a few years of hard tennis time -- they get the fucking death penalty. So, while P&G is definitely not the "small character piece" he claimed in promotional interviews, it still wound up with a hefty amount of substance, albeit of the performance-enhancing variety and encased in spandex and sweat-glimmer. Now, can you stop smashing CGI robots together and make Bad Boys III already, Mikey? Here's hoping for my #1 movie in 2015...
(Also, give it up for the definitely not a made-up name Stephen McFeely appearing twice on this list!)
5) Captain Phillips
Directed by: Paul Greengrass
Written by: Billy Ray
Starring: Tom Hanks, Barkhad Abdi
Being the type of film it is, I will have somewhat less to say about Captain Phillips than most of the other films on this list. But of the type of film it is -- a hyper-competent, technically-terrific, utterly-gripping action-thriller -- there are few better examples. One of my sincerest disappointments on Oscar-nom morning was the absence of Tom Hanks and Paul Greengrass in their categories. Hanks would would get my vote and be a worthy winner over any of the nominees (is it possible that Bruce Dern would be the runner-up on that list? it might be...), but, alas, delivered a performance that was too economic, too efficient for 95% of the film. (But that last 5% -- good god, no one was better last year outside of maybe Lupita Nyong'o.) Greengrass's work could be described the same way -- economical, efficient, and a far sight better than his scattershot direction in the Bourne movies. But fortunately, the Academy did get a few things right -- nominations for Abdi (completely convincing), Ray (solid, but not a strength), three technical categories (editing, sound editing, sound mixing) where it has a very real chance of upsetting Gravity, and Best Picture (where it is probably among the bottom-two potential winners). Add it all up and you get one of the most riveting cinematic experiences of the year -- riveting as in I was totally bolted to my seat for the two-hour duration. Those movies don't come around often, and you should regret it if you didn't see it on the big screen.
4) The World's End
Directed by: Edgar Wright
Written by: Edgar Wright and Simon Pegg
Starring: Edgar Wright, Nick Frost, Paddy Considine, Martin Freeman, Eddie Marsan, Rosamund Pike
I'm a huge fan of both Shaun of the Dead (best zom-rom-com of all time) and Hot Fuzz (I love any movie that loves Point Break and Bad Boys 2 as much as I do), but The World's End might be the best of the "Cornetto Trilogy." It's certainly the most well-made -- the cast is top-notch, as usual; the performances are uniformly excellent, highlighted by a career-best turn from Pegg; the script balances humor, both light and dark, with real emotional turmoil; and it's maybe Wright's most accomplished work behind the camera (with the possible exception of Scott Pilgrim vs. the World). That it manages to combine universal themes like friendship, aging, and forgiveness with a frank discussion of alcohol abuse and -- OH YEAH -- space aliens all with nuance and pathos is an impressive, impressive feat. At the center of it all is Simon Pegg, who, if the Academy had any sense at all when it comes to comedies, should have been at least in the conversation for Best Actor. His Gary King has much more in common with Shaun than Sergeant Nicholas Angel, but only if Shaun spent a couple decades at the Winchester drinking himself to despair. A greasy, overweight, trenchcoat-wearing alcoholic, Gary King is easily the most loathsome protagonist in any Wright/Pegg movie. The smartest thing about the movie though is that it doesn't try to redeem him (which I'm not even sure would have been possible) so much as humanize him -- which you find out was the point all along by the time you get to the eponymous final stop on the pub crawl that serves as the backbone of the movie. Anyone who's ever had a few too many will see a bit of themselves in Gary King -- although hopefully it doesn't take an alien invasion for you to realize your mistakes.
3) Frances Ha
Directed by: Noah Baumbach
Written by: Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig
Starring: Greta Gerwig, Mickey Sumner, Adam Driver
Frances Ha is built around the considerable charms of star and co-writer Greta Gerwig. She is beautiful, affable, and has a knack for making insecurity seem endearing. I knew none of this going in, having never seen a Greta Gerwig movie and being generally wary of Noah Baumbach's one-note cynicism. But I eventually heard enough good things about Frances Ha to take the plunge one night on Netflix streaming (eventually we'll be able to drop the "streaming," right?) and was rewarded with the year's most enjoyable, satisfying movie-watching experience. The joys of Frances Ha are almost innumerable -- the Manhattan-esque black-and-white cinematography, the expert deployment of David Bowie's "Modern Love," the ironic dialogue ("He wasn't a real alcoholic, but sometimes he would have like twelve beers"), the impromptu trip to Paris that we've all thought of taking, the final reveal of the title. But the most memorable thing about the film is the depiction of the relationship at the center of the film. Frances Ha, thankfully, isn't a "bot meets girl" movie -- Frances breaks up with her boyfriend at the beginning of the movie and is largely unconcerned with that part of her life for the duration. No, the real relationship here is between Frances and her best friend, "the same person with different hair," Sophie (Sumner). It's refreshing to see a movie eschew the usual romantic-comedy entanglements in favor of exploring friendship -- you know, those relationships that people by and large spend more time on than their romantic ones in a given lifetime. It's double refreshing to see an honest, funny, and resonant story about female friendship. I mean, this movie was basically made to break the Bechdel test. Finally, it makes a great double feature with my #9 movie, Drinking Buddies. C-c-check 'em out on Netflix before the movie gods take the away.
2) Gravity
Directed by: Alfonso Cuarón
Written by: Alfonso Cuarón and Jonás Cuarón
Starring: Sandra Bullock, George Clooney, Ed Harris
I suppose I'll start by saying that Gravity shot to the top spot on this list right about when the credits rolled and I began to clean up my undershorts. It would remain there for the duration of the year, even after I had seen what would become my #1 for the first time. That's how wowed I was by the technical virtuosity and unyielding tension of Alfonso Cuarón's 3D masterpiece. (And it *is* a masterpiece.) I don't think I've ever been privy to another cinematic experience that so combined the wonderment of the first Lord of the Rings film (or Avatar) with the gut-level terror a child feels at watching a horror movie. It's incomparable -- for now, anyway. (Interstellar, anyone?) So what's it doing sitting here at #2? Well, aside from the clichéd backstory, non-existent character development, and nearly disastrous dream sequence (none of which really is that problematic), the main thing going against Gravity is actually its greatest attribute: the in-theater experience. Quite simply, you'll *never* be able to recreate your initial viewing of Gravity -- because the film so relies on CGI spectacle to prop up what is a very simple story, that means there is very little rewatch value, especially on home video. I mean, even if you had fuck you money and could afford a massive 3D TV, you'd still only be able to recreate about 10% of the experience. If I'm only ever *really* going to be able to watch a movie once, it just can't be #1. That said, I will be rooting for it to win Best Picture tonight. More on that later this afternoon. For now, let's move onto my Best Picture...
1) The Wolf of Wall Street
Directed by: Martin Scorsese
Written by: Terence Winter
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Margot Robbie, Kyle Chandler, Matthew McConaughey
I can't remember a more difficult year for picking a #1 film. Usually, the choice is pretty obvious -- 2009 through 2011 all had clear, unimpeachable #1s (Inglourious Basterds, The Social Network, and Drive, respectively). They all remain my top movie of each year to this day. Last year was a little trickier, with both The Grey and Zero Dark Thirty duking it out -- but it was only ever really between those two. This year though... it just seems like a bunch of solid #2-5 type of movies were released. If I could cram my entire top-10 list into the top 5 without ever naming a #1, I'd have done so. (Or I could just do what Film Crit Hulk did and have a 10-way tie for #1 -- great list, by the way.) When it came down to it though, I went with Scorsese's latest collaboration with Leo as my top choice. Here's why:
BONUS LIST - BOTTOM FIVE FILMS OF 2012 (listed from bad to worst*)
Kick-Ass 2 (and this from someone who loved the first one)
Machete Kills (ditto)
Man of Steel (the last 45 minutes were almost unbearable)
To the Wonder (the entire two hours were almost unbearable -- gorgeous though)
A Good Day to Die Hard (the cinematic equivalent of a toddler smashing Tonka trucks together)
2013 was the toughest year to write about, film-wise, that I can recall. I hope I've done its excellent films justice. It sure took me long enough -- this is by far the latest I've ever posted this list. Next up, Oscar predictions. With only hours to spare before my Oscar party starts! Egads. Wish me luck. Thanks for reading!
HONORABLE MENTIONS (in alphabetical order):
12 Years a Slave, Drug War, The East, Inside Llewyn Davis, Much Ado About Nothing, Mud, Nebraska, Stoker, This Is the End
10) Iron Man 3 / Thor: The Dark World
Directed by: Shane Black / Alan Taylor
Written by: Drew Pearce and Shane Black / Christopher Yost, Christopher Markus, and Stephen McFeely
Starring: Robert Downey, Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Ben Kingsley / Chris Hemsworth, Natalie Portman, Tom Hiddleston
As is tradition, we begin with a tie. Both Marvel offerings would have been firm honorable mentions on their own, but with their powers combined they were able to crack the top ten. Hey, half of the Avengers who matter is still a pretty potent combo. I'll admit both films have pretty huge flaws -- Iron Man's third act is laughable to the point of absurdity, and although it's an improvement on the first movie, there is still about *ZERO* chemistry between Hemsworth and Portman in Thor -- but they are blockbusters done right. Both deliver their thrills with wit and panache (as opposed to, say, the dour and convoluted Star Trek Into Darkness and the, let's see, what's the right adjective... fucking terrible Man of Steel). The Iron Man franchise was starting to look a little rusted over with the second movie, but Shane Black made the franchise sparkle once again with his lively script and slapstick direction. RDJ is well-versed with Black's nimble dialogue (all hail Kiss Kiss Bang Bang), and Ben Kingsley's take on the Mandarin was one of my favorite comedic performances of the year -- indeed, Iron Man 3 is funnier than most comedies released last year. (For the record, most people hated the kid, but I didn't mind him at all). And while the ending set piece was just too much (although not nearly as bad as those in Darkness and Steel), the airplane sequence was just on the right side of ludicrous. Speaking of ending set pieces, Thor was one of the few action movies to do it right -- the teleporting hammer and frost monster running amok were perfect comedic touches. And while Hemsworth and Portman may not be the most charismatic leads, co-stars Hiddleston and Kat Dennings more than make up for it. Of the two, Dark World is my favorite despite a second-act lull -- but they both do what they're supposed to: make me amped for Avengers 2. Next up? Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Will it, too, best the previous installment?
9) Drinking Buddies
Directed by: Joe Swanberg
Written by: Joe Swanberg
Starring: Jake Johnson, Olivia Wilde, Anna Kendrick, Ron Livingston
We go from perhaps the loudest movies on my list (although, spoilers, Michael Bay does make an appearance) to perhaps the quietest. In fact, the dramatic weight of Drinking Buddies is almost entirely based on what *isn't* said -- namely, the obvious attraction between Chicago brewery employees Luke (Johnson) and Kate (Wilde). That both are in relationships when the movie begins is complicated enough, but the real complication --and a theme that runs through the movie like a yeasty undercurrent -- is the ubiquitous presence of alcohol. Just about every scene in the movie prominently features characters either making plans to drink, drinking, or in the clutches of a miserable hangover. In many ways, this cycle of drinking matches the stages of a relationship, and Drinking Buddies runs the gamut in that regard too -- both with Luke's and Kate's respective relationships and their relationship with each other. Although Kendrick (as Johnson's teacher girlfriend) and Livingston (Wilde's boyfriend) do their best with severely underwritten characters (one of the downsides to a mostly improvised script), it is the relationship between Luke and Kate that is by far the most interesting and relatable. Johnson's transformation from sympathetic shoulder to cry on to sanctimonious asshole (and back again) is remarkably true to life (been there), as is Wilde's conflicted, uninhibited party girl (also been there). Both actors give startlingly vivid, empathetic performances not suggested by their previous work ("the other guy from New Girl" and "hot girl in that crappy movie," respectively). Of course, the maestro behind it all is the indie "It Guy" of last year: Swanberg. The only other directorial effort I've seen of his was a fairly forgettable vignette in the first V/H/S, but if any of his other features are even half as soulful and raw as this, I'm sure they're worth checking out. (Note to self: Keep an eye on the Netflix streaming list.)
8) Spring Breakers
Directed by: Harmony Korine
Written by: Harmony Korine
Starring: Vanessa Hudgens, Anna Benson, Rachel Korine, Selena Gomez, James Franco
I'll admit, my reasons for seeing this were almost entirely prurient at first. Just look at the poster -- it looked like a Skinemax flick with a slightly larger budget. There were four of us in the theater that Saturday afternoon: myself, my two friends, and the solitary creeper in the row in front of us. I mean, this guy looked like the kind of guy who would cut a hole in the popcorn tub at a movie by himself. But I couldn't really blame him -- Spring Breakers looked it it was going to be *that* kind of movie. It had been a gossip-page mainstay since pre-production and the trailers were heavy on the sleaze, prominently featuring salacious exploitation of Disney starlets and shots of James Franco's leering grill. The movie wound up delivering on all the above in spades: the sleaze, the exploitation, the grill. But it was the way it went about delivering its titillations that stayed with me much longer than any of the obvious visceral thrills. For all its debauchery, Spring Breakers is a *beautiful* movie -- brightly lit, perfectly staged, swathed in neon, all lushly photographed. Imagine if Gordon Willis got his start in music videos. (I'll readily admit that would not have been a good thing -- but it really worked here.) Then there's the music -- this is the one and only time I approve of the use of (much less the existence of) dubstep. What other genre could so perfectly score such a grotesque caricature of youthful esurience and excess? Also, you'll never think of Britney Spears's "Everytime" quite the same way again after Franco's be-tatted and -grilled rendition. Finally, the element that stayed with me the longest -- and eventually merited its inclusion in this list -- is the film's structure. (Read: editing.) This is a film that unfolds at its own pace and resists at every turn the temptation to succumb to the rigid plotting that plagues most Hollywood fare. No, Spring Breakers plays out more like a chromatic fever dream, an atonal and slyly rhythmic reverie rather than the trashy exploitation flick that was promised. I walked into the theater expecting little more than T 'n' A, and wound up getting something approaching... art?
7) Her
Directed by: Spike Jonze
Written by: Spike Jonze
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Scarlett Johansson, Amy Adams, Rooney Mara
Her was the final entry to make this list -- a function of it not coming out until the middle of January in Arizona. I had a chance to see it in California at the end of December, but I wound up seeing what would wind up being the #1 movie on this list, so I can't say I made the wrong choice. But while it might have been a late entry, it was also always destined to make this list. Let's see: Kaufman protégé writing and directing? Check. Subtle sci-fi premise? Check. L.A. setting? Check. Mustache on the poster? Check. But most importantly of all, it features the man who would very likely get my vote for Finest Actor Working Today (especially since PSH died -- R.I.P.): Joaquin Phoenix. I thought cinema had lost a startling and rare talent when he appeared to go off the deep end (for Casey Affleck's I'm Still Here, which I still haven't seen), but then he came roaring back in 2012 with, in my estimation, one of the most gripping and visceral performances in at least a couple decades in The Master, in which he managed to out-act his main competition for the above-mentioned title, co-star PSH and, well, the master himself, Daniel Day-Lewis (in the once-overrated, now properly-rated Lincoln). After his Oscar robbery, Phoenix continued his hot streak (in NBA Jam terms, "he's heating up!") by doing a rare inward 180° turn in Her. In The Master, his Freddie Quell was almost spring-loaded, all twitch and explosion -- intensely physical work. Here, his Theodore Twombly is a much more cerebral presence, prone to pensive gazes and half-smiles -- there is real softness and Kirk Lazarus-ian "emotionality." It's not as strong work as Quell, but certainly worthy of an Oscar nomination in a mediocre year, lead actor-wise (cough*Bale*cough). Regardless, I can't wait to see him in Paul Thomas Anderson's Inherent Vice later this year. As far as Her as a whole goes, yes, it can be overly twee at times, and, no, the "sex scene" doesn't work, but it is perhaps the most honest exploration of modern relationships since its spiritual predecessor, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. And that's no faint praise coming from an Apple hater and confirmed cynic. But I am, of course, ignoring the film's crowning achievement: bringing high-waisted pants back! (Or were they ever in?)
6) Pain & Gain
Directed by: Michael Bay
Written by: Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely
Starring: Mark Wahlberg, Dwayne Johnson, Anthony Mackie, Tony Shalhoub, Ed Harris
Pain & Gain should be subtitled "In Which Michael Bay Interrogates the American Dream." I know, I know, Fitzgerald or Welles he may not be, but I'd like to think Mr. Bay knows a thing or two about 'Merica (alternately, see my Facebook cover photo). American films were very much concerned with excess this year (and if you don't believe me, just listen to A.O. Scott), but possibly none was as honest as P&G (as the initiated call it). Luhrmann's Gatsby and Korine's Spring Breakers were both fictional and rooted in opulent fantasy, and of the three true-to-life stories, Coppola's Bling Ring never went deeper than designer labels, Russell's Hustle (which would've been a great title) was too convoluted to really analyze character motivation, and Scorsese's Wolf of Wall Street was too concerned with satire (the biting nature of which sometimes wound up taking a chunk out of its own ass). While not the best of these commonly-themed films, P&G nevertheless presents the most credible portrayal of the consequences of pure, raw, foaming-at-the-mouth greed. That's a tall claim considering that this is by far the most outlandish of the "based on a true story" films, but the characters (okay, caricatures) here aren't self-centered teens, fast-talking con men, or charismatic hustlers. No, Daniel "I Believe in Fitness" Lugo, Paul Doyle, and Adrian Doorbal are blue-collar schmucks, meatheads with goals no more grand than owning a gym or getting a bigger dick. Their greed is palpable and utterly banal, unlike the conceptual or even idealized avarice present in the other films. And, also unlike the other films, these guys suffer consequences harsher than not getting the girl or a few years of hard tennis time -- they get the fucking death penalty. So, while P&G is definitely not the "small character piece" he claimed in promotional interviews, it still wound up with a hefty amount of substance, albeit of the performance-enhancing variety and encased in spandex and sweat-glimmer. Now, can you stop smashing CGI robots together and make Bad Boys III already, Mikey? Here's hoping for my #1 movie in 2015...
(Also, give it up for the definitely not a made-up name Stephen McFeely appearing twice on this list!)
5) Captain Phillips
Directed by: Paul Greengrass
Written by: Billy Ray
Starring: Tom Hanks, Barkhad Abdi
Being the type of film it is, I will have somewhat less to say about Captain Phillips than most of the other films on this list. But of the type of film it is -- a hyper-competent, technically-terrific, utterly-gripping action-thriller -- there are few better examples. One of my sincerest disappointments on Oscar-nom morning was the absence of Tom Hanks and Paul Greengrass in their categories. Hanks would would get my vote and be a worthy winner over any of the nominees (is it possible that Bruce Dern would be the runner-up on that list? it might be...), but, alas, delivered a performance that was too economic, too efficient for 95% of the film. (But that last 5% -- good god, no one was better last year outside of maybe Lupita Nyong'o.) Greengrass's work could be described the same way -- economical, efficient, and a far sight better than his scattershot direction in the Bourne movies. But fortunately, the Academy did get a few things right -- nominations for Abdi (completely convincing), Ray (solid, but not a strength), three technical categories (editing, sound editing, sound mixing) where it has a very real chance of upsetting Gravity, and Best Picture (where it is probably among the bottom-two potential winners). Add it all up and you get one of the most riveting cinematic experiences of the year -- riveting as in I was totally bolted to my seat for the two-hour duration. Those movies don't come around often, and you should regret it if you didn't see it on the big screen.
4) The World's End
Directed by: Edgar Wright
Written by: Edgar Wright and Simon Pegg
Starring: Edgar Wright, Nick Frost, Paddy Considine, Martin Freeman, Eddie Marsan, Rosamund Pike
I'm a huge fan of both Shaun of the Dead (best zom-rom-com of all time) and Hot Fuzz (I love any movie that loves Point Break and Bad Boys 2 as much as I do), but The World's End might be the best of the "Cornetto Trilogy." It's certainly the most well-made -- the cast is top-notch, as usual; the performances are uniformly excellent, highlighted by a career-best turn from Pegg; the script balances humor, both light and dark, with real emotional turmoil; and it's maybe Wright's most accomplished work behind the camera (with the possible exception of Scott Pilgrim vs. the World). That it manages to combine universal themes like friendship, aging, and forgiveness with a frank discussion of alcohol abuse and -- OH YEAH -- space aliens all with nuance and pathos is an impressive, impressive feat. At the center of it all is Simon Pegg, who, if the Academy had any sense at all when it comes to comedies, should have been at least in the conversation for Best Actor. His Gary King has much more in common with Shaun than Sergeant Nicholas Angel, but only if Shaun spent a couple decades at the Winchester drinking himself to despair. A greasy, overweight, trenchcoat-wearing alcoholic, Gary King is easily the most loathsome protagonist in any Wright/Pegg movie. The smartest thing about the movie though is that it doesn't try to redeem him (which I'm not even sure would have been possible) so much as humanize him -- which you find out was the point all along by the time you get to the eponymous final stop on the pub crawl that serves as the backbone of the movie. Anyone who's ever had a few too many will see a bit of themselves in Gary King -- although hopefully it doesn't take an alien invasion for you to realize your mistakes.
3) Frances Ha
Directed by: Noah Baumbach
Written by: Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig
Starring: Greta Gerwig, Mickey Sumner, Adam Driver
Frances Ha is built around the considerable charms of star and co-writer Greta Gerwig. She is beautiful, affable, and has a knack for making insecurity seem endearing. I knew none of this going in, having never seen a Greta Gerwig movie and being generally wary of Noah Baumbach's one-note cynicism. But I eventually heard enough good things about Frances Ha to take the plunge one night on Netflix streaming (eventually we'll be able to drop the "streaming," right?) and was rewarded with the year's most enjoyable, satisfying movie-watching experience. The joys of Frances Ha are almost innumerable -- the Manhattan-esque black-and-white cinematography, the expert deployment of David Bowie's "Modern Love," the ironic dialogue ("He wasn't a real alcoholic, but sometimes he would have like twelve beers"), the impromptu trip to Paris that we've all thought of taking, the final reveal of the title. But the most memorable thing about the film is the depiction of the relationship at the center of the film. Frances Ha, thankfully, isn't a "bot meets girl" movie -- Frances breaks up with her boyfriend at the beginning of the movie and is largely unconcerned with that part of her life for the duration. No, the real relationship here is between Frances and her best friend, "the same person with different hair," Sophie (Sumner). It's refreshing to see a movie eschew the usual romantic-comedy entanglements in favor of exploring friendship -- you know, those relationships that people by and large spend more time on than their romantic ones in a given lifetime. It's double refreshing to see an honest, funny, and resonant story about female friendship. I mean, this movie was basically made to break the Bechdel test. Finally, it makes a great double feature with my #9 movie, Drinking Buddies. C-c-check 'em out on Netflix before the movie gods take the away.
2) Gravity
Directed by: Alfonso Cuarón
Written by: Alfonso Cuarón and Jonás Cuarón
Starring: Sandra Bullock, George Clooney, Ed Harris
I suppose I'll start by saying that Gravity shot to the top spot on this list right about when the credits rolled and I began to clean up my undershorts. It would remain there for the duration of the year, even after I had seen what would become my #1 for the first time. That's how wowed I was by the technical virtuosity and unyielding tension of Alfonso Cuarón's 3D masterpiece. (And it *is* a masterpiece.) I don't think I've ever been privy to another cinematic experience that so combined the wonderment of the first Lord of the Rings film (or Avatar) with the gut-level terror a child feels at watching a horror movie. It's incomparable -- for now, anyway. (Interstellar, anyone?) So what's it doing sitting here at #2? Well, aside from the clichéd backstory, non-existent character development, and nearly disastrous dream sequence (none of which really is that problematic), the main thing going against Gravity is actually its greatest attribute: the in-theater experience. Quite simply, you'll *never* be able to recreate your initial viewing of Gravity -- because the film so relies on CGI spectacle to prop up what is a very simple story, that means there is very little rewatch value, especially on home video. I mean, even if you had fuck you money and could afford a massive 3D TV, you'd still only be able to recreate about 10% of the experience. If I'm only ever *really* going to be able to watch a movie once, it just can't be #1. That said, I will be rooting for it to win Best Picture tonight. More on that later this afternoon. For now, let's move onto my Best Picture...
1) The Wolf of Wall Street
Directed by: Martin Scorsese
Written by: Terence Winter
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Margot Robbie, Kyle Chandler, Matthew McConaughey
I can't remember a more difficult year for picking a #1 film. Usually, the choice is pretty obvious -- 2009 through 2011 all had clear, unimpeachable #1s (Inglourious Basterds, The Social Network, and Drive, respectively). They all remain my top movie of each year to this day. Last year was a little trickier, with both The Grey and Zero Dark Thirty duking it out -- but it was only ever really between those two. This year though... it just seems like a bunch of solid #2-5 type of movies were released. If I could cram my entire top-10 list into the top 5 without ever naming a #1, I'd have done so. (Or I could just do what Film Crit Hulk did and have a 10-way tie for #1 -- great list, by the way.) When it came down to it though, I went with Scorsese's latest collaboration with Leo as my top choice. Here's why:
- It's funny. In fact, it might be the funniest movie of the year. From Jonah Hill's veneers to the midget tossing to the Quaaludes scene (that fucking scene!), I don't think I experience that much uproarious laughter in a theater last year.
- It has both the worst nude scene of the year (Hill's grubby prosthetic dong) and the best (Margot Robbie, good lord). These things matter.
- It's got a killer period soundtrack. House of Pain! Sir Mix-a-Lot! Foo Fighters! Me First and the Gimme Gimmes! And whatever that McConaughey humming thing was!
- It's well-written. Terence Winter's script might be the most underrated of all the Oscar nominees (well, second-most behind Before Midnight's). The "Bond villain boat" scene might be the best of last year.
- The acting is stellar. From McConaughey's Baldwin-esque cameo and Hill's scene-stealing antics to Robbie's sympathetic turn and Leo's unhinged lead turn, the cast of many acted the shit out of this movie.
- It's Scorsese's best work behind the camera since Goodfellas. (Also note: It's basically the same movie as Goodfellas, only with a different type of criminal.) Outside of Cuarón's likely Oscar-winning work on Gravity, it's the best-directed movie of the year. Just watch the 'Ludes scene for a masterclass in framing and spacial relation. (And a special shout-out to Thelma Schoonmaker, editrix extraordinaire and robbed of an Oscar nomination.)
- It's smart. The Wolf of Wall Street is the most incisive Wall Street satire I've ever seen. I mean, there's a scene in the movie where DiCaprio mimes ass-fucking one of his clients. If that isn't about the best metaphor for the recent financial crisis, I don't know what is. And I want you to watch the last scene, the last shot of the movie and tell me exactly what you see. Okay, I'll save you the trouble and show you:
BONUS LIST - BOTTOM FIVE FILMS OF 2012 (listed from bad to worst*)
Kick-Ass 2 (and this from someone who loved the first one)
Machete Kills (ditto)
Man of Steel (the last 45 minutes were almost unbearable)
To the Wonder (the entire two hours were almost unbearable -- gorgeous though)
A Good Day to Die Hard (the cinematic equivalent of a toddler smashing Tonka trucks together)
2013 was the toughest year to write about, film-wise, that I can recall. I hope I've done its excellent films justice. It sure took me long enough -- this is by far the latest I've ever posted this list. Next up, Oscar predictions. With only hours to spare before my Oscar party starts! Egads. Wish me luck. Thanks for reading!
Thursday, January 16, 2014
A Procrastinated Prognosis: Oscar Nomination Predictions
Oscar nomination morning is the new Christmas morning. By 5:00 a.m. tomorrow, the (mostly) white, elderly, and bearded AMPAS Claus will have bestowed its gifts upon the world of film. Filmmakers and film lovers alike will rush to their televisions, laptops, and smartphones to see what jolly old Saint AMPAS brought. Although some will get a lump of coal (like poor Ben Affleck last year -- he must've been naughty!), most will rejoice in unwrapping their nominations. But just like every child has a wish list, every blogger has a predictions list. Mine is below, with the prospective nominees listed roughly in order of likelihood. So, let's see who's been naughty and who's been nice.
* haven't seen it
^ early winner prediction
BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle^
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Her*
Dallas Buyers Club
Saving Mr. Banks*
---
Next in line:
Philomena
Inside Llewyn Davis
Blue Jasmine*
Fruitvale Station*
Lee Daniels' The Butler*
Comments: The race for Best Picture is probably coming down to the top three listed above -- 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity. They are all locks for nominations. I can see 12 Years having gotten more first-place votes at this juncture, which is why it is listed first above, but I think Hustle will prove to have broader support during final voting and sneak away with the statue. Gravity, my personal favorite of the three, will be a shiny also-ran in this race, unfortunately. The next three -- Captain Phillips, Nebraska, and The Wolf of Wall Street -- all have each earned a lot of critical respect for both their star and director and are probably too big to fail at this point. It gets a little tricky after those films. Her is a film that probably wound up in first place on a lot of ballots during the nomination process and is a solid bet to snag a nomination. Dallas Buyers Club is a bit of a wild card, but with two strong performances and important subject matter, it has the goods to earn a nomination. Finally, I think *one* of Saving Mr. Banks and Philomena will earn the Little Miss Sunshine feel-good smarm memorial nomination -- but not both. Inside Llewyn Davis is in the same milieu as the Coens' previous film A Serious Man, which missed out on a Best Picture nom, and their latest -- curiously quiet, buzz-wise -- seems likely to suffer the same fate. Another late-day Woody Allen nom wouldn't be a shock, but Jasmine is already presumptively being awarded for its lead actress. Finally, either Fruitvale or The Butler is in play if enough voters got behind one of them -- but I think too many lumped them together and they both miss out.
Wishful thinking: Frances Ha, Mud
BEST DIRECTOR
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity^
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Alexander Payne – Nebraska
---
Next in line:
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
Spike Jonze – Her*
Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine*
Comments: This might be the toughest category to predict of the bunch, especially after last year's buffoonery. I'm going to assume (probably a bad idea) that the directors of the three Best Picture frontrunners -- McQueen, Russell, and Cuarón -- will be nominated. This year seems ripe for a Picture/Director split, and I think Cuarón and his stunning technical achievements will benefit. That leaves two slots for a very crowded field full of past nominees and winners. I expect Captain Phillips to do well in the technical categories, which should carry Greengrass to a nomination -- and a well-deserved one for his masterfully paced and executed film. I also think the divisive nature of Wolf will count against Scorsese and cost him a nomination, leaving the door open for someone like Payne, Jonze, or the Coens. I could easily imagine many voters deciding to reward Jonze and the Coens in the writing category (ditto Allen), leaving the final spot to Payne, although I am not at all confident about it. Scorsese and Jonze especially lurk, and could knock Payne or Greengrass out of their slot.
Wishful thinking: Harmony Korine – Spring Breakers
BEST ACTOR
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave^
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Robert Redford – All Is Lost*
---
Next in line:
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Joaquin Phoenix – Her*
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station*
Comments: This is a crowded field, but it figures to come down to Ejiofor and McConaughey, and I think AMPAS will eventually go Ejiofor's way, even though McConaughey has been coming on stronger lately. Either way, there is no chance of either of these performances missing out on a nomination. The rest, I'm not so sure. Hanks and Dern *seem* to be locked in, but I can't shake this feeling that one of them (probably Hanks) is going to miss out. He's been there before and will again, which is not the case for Dern. Or Redford, my pick for the final spot over Leo. Remember, the majority of the voting body of AMPAS skews older, and Redford was THE biggest star 40 years ago -- bigger that Leo is now. I feel that the voters won't be able to pass up what is most likely their last chance to nominate one of the biggest stars ever -- and someone who has only been nominated for acting once. Maybe I'm reading too much into the "controversy" surrounding Wolf, but I don't think it'll get as much love as it warrants (I *loved* the film). Leo won't win this year even if he's nominated, and he'll be back, and voters understand both of those facts. I don't think there will be a surprise here, but if there is, my money is on Isaac, who carried his film (along with his guitar) on his back. I don't have much to say about Bale's performance other than it isn't Oscar-worthy, but the film seems to have a lot of support, so... Finally, Phoenix's performance probably isn't flashy enough, and the buzz seems to have really died around Fruitvale.
Wishful thinking: none
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine*^
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks*
Judi Dench – Philomena
Amy Adams – American Hustle
---
Next in line:
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County*
Adèle Exarchopoulous – Blue Is the Warmest Color*
Brie Larson – Short Term 12*
Comments: I really need to catch up on my awards-worthy female lead performances. Or maybe not -- Banks and August look awful, Blue is three hours (and I've already seen the "good" parts -- wink), and Short Term 12 is unlikely to land any nominations (although I do hear it is good). I will have to seek out Blue Jasmine, however, as this award is Blanchett's to lose at this point. Bulluck will make a fine runner-up -- I can see the strained smiles already. Thompson and Dench seem like sure things as well, especially after Thompson tore it up at the Globes and considering that Dench is a friggin' DAME. The last spot is probably the toughest single call of any category. But, while it's probably very stupid to go against Meryl Streep, Hustle seems to have too much across-the-board love to miss out here. I have exactly ZERO confidence in this pick, however. We'll find out in a few hours either way.
Wishful thinking: Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club^
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl – Rush*
James Gandolfini – Enough Said*
---
Next in line:
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
Will Forte – Nebraska
Comments: This should be your field of possible nominees (and I don't think Forte really has a shot). Leto and Fassbender are your only real contenders (at this point) for the statue, and I think Leto will take it handily (although his glib Globes speech probably didn't help). Fassbender's performance is just... not easy to root for on any level. (It is very good though, in a demented, sociopathic way.) Abdi *should* pick up a nomination, and deservedly so -- I literally thought Greengrass cast an actual Somali pirate, not a guy who was driving limos in Minnesota. After that, the next four guys could grab the last two spots in any combination. Brühl has been a presumptive lock for months, but that could very well work against him; it would not at all surprise me to see him miss out. He's in for now though, along with Gandolfini, who will surely get many a sentimental vote. I have a hard time seeing one of the most respected -- and liked -- actors of his generation miss out of the final chance for a nomination. But Cooper and Hill could easily slide into one or both of the last slots. Cooper, to me, would be a poor choice -- his performance in a relatively thankless roll did nothing for me. Hill is a different story. While I was, and still am, perplexed at how he got nominated for Moneyball, he proved he has Oscar-worthy acting chops in Wolf. (Although it could just be the veneers.) As far as Forte goes, the Academy has been known to nominate comedians in more serious roles, and Forte did an admirable job as Dern's estranged son in Nebraska.
Wishful thinking: James Franco – Spring Breakers, Sam Rockwell – The Way, Way Back
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o – 12 Years a Slave^
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
June Squibb – Nebraska
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County*
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels' The Butler*
---
Next in line:
Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station*
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine*
Margo Martindale – August: Osage County*
Comments: This is one of maybe a couple categories that seem predestined. It would be a surprise to see anyone but the five ladies above in the field come morning. And it would be a crime if anyone but Nyong'o took home home the Academy Award -- she's that good. I don't get the hype around Lawrence's performance in this particular movie -- she's good but not great. Nomination-worthy in a weak year, I suppose. Squibb was great -- a sweet mixture of profanity and profundity. Roberts and Winfrey figure to get in on stature alone. (Both performances are supposed to be good, however -- I will find out myself if/when they get nominated.) Spencer, Hawkins, and Martindale are longshot spoilers in movies I haven't seen, so I'll just move on.
Wishful thinking: Emma Watson – The Bling Ring, Julianne Moore – Don Jon, Mickey Sumner – Frances Ha
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eric Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle^
Spike Jonze – Her*
Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine*
Bob Nelson – Nebraska
---
Next in line:
Nicole Holofcener – Enough Said*
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack – Dallas Buyers Club
Alfonso and Jonas Cuarón – Gravity
Ryan Coogler – Fruitvale Station*
Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith – Saving Mr. Banks*
Wildcard!
Comments: This group seems like it *should* be set with Singer/Russell, Jonze, the Coens, Allen, and Nelson. I haven't seen a few of the possible spoilers, but I can't imagine they are better written than any of the five above. Granted, I haven't seen two of them, but it's Spike Jonze and Woody Allen, so I'm not worried. That said, this is a category where just about every year there is a surprise -- which is why it is my favorite category. Hustle seems to be building toward an Artist/Argo-like consensus (which I'm okay with, I guess...) and would figure to take this award in that scenario. The Coens' script is full of interesting characters (Carey Mulligan's excepted) and strong scenes, and Nelson's script for Nebraska gives the actors a great premise to work with and knows when to push the conflict and when to let the characters breathe. Of the possible spoilers, Holofcener and Marcel and Smith would be rare female nominees in this category, but I haven't seen their films so I can't comment further. Coogler's script would be a good chance to honor a movie that many seemed to love. The Cuaróns get bonus points for their textbook use of Aristotle's unities and could ride a wave of admiration for the film to a nomination, but I don't think anyone thinks the script is particularly award-worthy. Finally, there very well could be a spot for Borten and Wallack's script. It's not the strong point of the movie (too message-heavy and the third act is a mess), but it did earn a Writer's Guild nom. And, as always, watch out for a wildcard (like In Bruges in 2009) here.
Wishful thinking: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach – Frances Ha, Joe Swanberg – Drinking Buddies
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave^
Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawk – Before Midnight*
Billy Ray – Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena
---
Next in line:
Tracy Letts – August: Osage County*
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber – The Spectacular Now*
Abdellatif Kechiche and Ghalia Lacroix – Blue Is the Warmest Color*
Comments: This is another category that seems pretty well set. (Famous last words, I know). Ridley seems to be far out ahead of the field in a fairly weak category and should win on Oscar night. I actually quite liked Winter's script (the line about Bond villains and boats, for example), but some will probably have a hard time with all the profanity (and worse). Linklater, Delpy, and Hawke figure to earn their second consecutive nomination for the third (and final?) film in a critically and culturally beloved series (one which I should probably get around to watching sometime). Ray's taut action script and Coogan and Pope's saccharine dramatic one are solid bets for the final two spots. (More on them if and when they are nominated.) Letts, who adapted his own play, is probably the only outsider with a real chance at spoiling the party. The other two would have to be at the top of a lot of ballots to make it to the ceremony, but I suppose it is possible.
RANDOM PREDICTIONS/OBSERVATIONS:
*Like I said above, I may well be overestimating the impact of the issues surrounding The Wolf of Wall Street. It might force its way into the big races.
*I'm most interested in seeing how both Actor races and the Original Screenplay race turns out.
*There really has to be more good roles for females, right?
*One film/performance not even listed in 'Next in line' will sneak in. It happens every year.
Done with four hours to spare. Time to sleep for six then pull up the nominations on my phone, as is tradition. Last year I went 34/44 -- not too shabby. Let's see if I beat that number this year. Maybe it will give me a head start on breaking my Oscar night losing streak. You'll here from me before then though. Until then, happy Oscar morning!
* haven't seen it
^ early winner prediction
BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle^
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Her*
Dallas Buyers Club
Saving Mr. Banks*
---
Next in line:
Philomena
Inside Llewyn Davis
Blue Jasmine*
Fruitvale Station*
Lee Daniels' The Butler*
Comments: The race for Best Picture is probably coming down to the top three listed above -- 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity. They are all locks for nominations. I can see 12 Years having gotten more first-place votes at this juncture, which is why it is listed first above, but I think Hustle will prove to have broader support during final voting and sneak away with the statue. Gravity, my personal favorite of the three, will be a shiny also-ran in this race, unfortunately. The next three -- Captain Phillips, Nebraska, and The Wolf of Wall Street -- all have each earned a lot of critical respect for both their star and director and are probably too big to fail at this point. It gets a little tricky after those films. Her is a film that probably wound up in first place on a lot of ballots during the nomination process and is a solid bet to snag a nomination. Dallas Buyers Club is a bit of a wild card, but with two strong performances and important subject matter, it has the goods to earn a nomination. Finally, I think *one* of Saving Mr. Banks and Philomena will earn the Little Miss Sunshine feel-good smarm memorial nomination -- but not both. Inside Llewyn Davis is in the same milieu as the Coens' previous film A Serious Man, which missed out on a Best Picture nom, and their latest -- curiously quiet, buzz-wise -- seems likely to suffer the same fate. Another late-day Woody Allen nom wouldn't be a shock, but Jasmine is already presumptively being awarded for its lead actress. Finally, either Fruitvale or The Butler is in play if enough voters got behind one of them -- but I think too many lumped them together and they both miss out.
Wishful thinking: Frances Ha, Mud
BEST DIRECTOR
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity^
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Alexander Payne – Nebraska
---
Next in line:
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
Spike Jonze – Her*
Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine*
Comments: This might be the toughest category to predict of the bunch, especially after last year's buffoonery. I'm going to assume (probably a bad idea) that the directors of the three Best Picture frontrunners -- McQueen, Russell, and Cuarón -- will be nominated. This year seems ripe for a Picture/Director split, and I think Cuarón and his stunning technical achievements will benefit. That leaves two slots for a very crowded field full of past nominees and winners. I expect Captain Phillips to do well in the technical categories, which should carry Greengrass to a nomination -- and a well-deserved one for his masterfully paced and executed film. I also think the divisive nature of Wolf will count against Scorsese and cost him a nomination, leaving the door open for someone like Payne, Jonze, or the Coens. I could easily imagine many voters deciding to reward Jonze and the Coens in the writing category (ditto Allen), leaving the final spot to Payne, although I am not at all confident about it. Scorsese and Jonze especially lurk, and could knock Payne or Greengrass out of their slot.
Wishful thinking: Harmony Korine – Spring Breakers
BEST ACTOR
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave^
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Robert Redford – All Is Lost*
---
Next in line:
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Joaquin Phoenix – Her*
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station*
Comments: This is a crowded field, but it figures to come down to Ejiofor and McConaughey, and I think AMPAS will eventually go Ejiofor's way, even though McConaughey has been coming on stronger lately. Either way, there is no chance of either of these performances missing out on a nomination. The rest, I'm not so sure. Hanks and Dern *seem* to be locked in, but I can't shake this feeling that one of them (probably Hanks) is going to miss out. He's been there before and will again, which is not the case for Dern. Or Redford, my pick for the final spot over Leo. Remember, the majority of the voting body of AMPAS skews older, and Redford was THE biggest star 40 years ago -- bigger that Leo is now. I feel that the voters won't be able to pass up what is most likely their last chance to nominate one of the biggest stars ever -- and someone who has only been nominated for acting once. Maybe I'm reading too much into the "controversy" surrounding Wolf, but I don't think it'll get as much love as it warrants (I *loved* the film). Leo won't win this year even if he's nominated, and he'll be back, and voters understand both of those facts. I don't think there will be a surprise here, but if there is, my money is on Isaac, who carried his film (along with his guitar) on his back. I don't have much to say about Bale's performance other than it isn't Oscar-worthy, but the film seems to have a lot of support, so... Finally, Phoenix's performance probably isn't flashy enough, and the buzz seems to have really died around Fruitvale.
Wishful thinking: none
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine*^
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks*
Judi Dench – Philomena
Amy Adams – American Hustle
---
Next in line:
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County*
Adèle Exarchopoulous – Blue Is the Warmest Color*
Brie Larson – Short Term 12*
Comments: I really need to catch up on my awards-worthy female lead performances. Or maybe not -- Banks and August look awful, Blue is three hours (and I've already seen the "good" parts -- wink), and Short Term 12 is unlikely to land any nominations (although I do hear it is good). I will have to seek out Blue Jasmine, however, as this award is Blanchett's to lose at this point. Bulluck will make a fine runner-up -- I can see the strained smiles already. Thompson and Dench seem like sure things as well, especially after Thompson tore it up at the Globes and considering that Dench is a friggin' DAME. The last spot is probably the toughest single call of any category. But, while it's probably very stupid to go against Meryl Streep, Hustle seems to have too much across-the-board love to miss out here. I have exactly ZERO confidence in this pick, however. We'll find out in a few hours either way.
Wishful thinking: Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club^
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl – Rush*
James Gandolfini – Enough Said*
---
Next in line:
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
Will Forte – Nebraska
Comments: This should be your field of possible nominees (and I don't think Forte really has a shot). Leto and Fassbender are your only real contenders (at this point) for the statue, and I think Leto will take it handily (although his glib Globes speech probably didn't help). Fassbender's performance is just... not easy to root for on any level. (It is very good though, in a demented, sociopathic way.) Abdi *should* pick up a nomination, and deservedly so -- I literally thought Greengrass cast an actual Somali pirate, not a guy who was driving limos in Minnesota. After that, the next four guys could grab the last two spots in any combination. Brühl has been a presumptive lock for months, but that could very well work against him; it would not at all surprise me to see him miss out. He's in for now though, along with Gandolfini, who will surely get many a sentimental vote. I have a hard time seeing one of the most respected -- and liked -- actors of his generation miss out of the final chance for a nomination. But Cooper and Hill could easily slide into one or both of the last slots. Cooper, to me, would be a poor choice -- his performance in a relatively thankless roll did nothing for me. Hill is a different story. While I was, and still am, perplexed at how he got nominated for Moneyball, he proved he has Oscar-worthy acting chops in Wolf. (Although it could just be the veneers.) As far as Forte goes, the Academy has been known to nominate comedians in more serious roles, and Forte did an admirable job as Dern's estranged son in Nebraska.
Wishful thinking: James Franco – Spring Breakers, Sam Rockwell – The Way, Way Back
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o – 12 Years a Slave^
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
June Squibb – Nebraska
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County*
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels' The Butler*
---
Next in line:
Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station*
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine*
Margo Martindale – August: Osage County*
Comments: This is one of maybe a couple categories that seem predestined. It would be a surprise to see anyone but the five ladies above in the field come morning. And it would be a crime if anyone but Nyong'o took home home the Academy Award -- she's that good. I don't get the hype around Lawrence's performance in this particular movie -- she's good but not great. Nomination-worthy in a weak year, I suppose. Squibb was great -- a sweet mixture of profanity and profundity. Roberts and Winfrey figure to get in on stature alone. (Both performances are supposed to be good, however -- I will find out myself if/when they get nominated.) Spencer, Hawkins, and Martindale are longshot spoilers in movies I haven't seen, so I'll just move on.
Wishful thinking: Emma Watson – The Bling Ring, Julianne Moore – Don Jon, Mickey Sumner – Frances Ha
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eric Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle^
Spike Jonze – Her*
Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine*
Bob Nelson – Nebraska
---
Next in line:
Nicole Holofcener – Enough Said*
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack – Dallas Buyers Club
Alfonso and Jonas Cuarón – Gravity
Ryan Coogler – Fruitvale Station*
Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith – Saving Mr. Banks*
Wildcard!
Comments: This group seems like it *should* be set with Singer/Russell, Jonze, the Coens, Allen, and Nelson. I haven't seen a few of the possible spoilers, but I can't imagine they are better written than any of the five above. Granted, I haven't seen two of them, but it's Spike Jonze and Woody Allen, so I'm not worried. That said, this is a category where just about every year there is a surprise -- which is why it is my favorite category. Hustle seems to be building toward an Artist/Argo-like consensus (which I'm okay with, I guess...) and would figure to take this award in that scenario. The Coens' script is full of interesting characters (Carey Mulligan's excepted) and strong scenes, and Nelson's script for Nebraska gives the actors a great premise to work with and knows when to push the conflict and when to let the characters breathe. Of the possible spoilers, Holofcener and Marcel and Smith would be rare female nominees in this category, but I haven't seen their films so I can't comment further. Coogler's script would be a good chance to honor a movie that many seemed to love. The Cuaróns get bonus points for their textbook use of Aristotle's unities and could ride a wave of admiration for the film to a nomination, but I don't think anyone thinks the script is particularly award-worthy. Finally, there very well could be a spot for Borten and Wallack's script. It's not the strong point of the movie (too message-heavy and the third act is a mess), but it did earn a Writer's Guild nom. And, as always, watch out for a wildcard (like In Bruges in 2009) here.
Wishful thinking: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach – Frances Ha, Joe Swanberg – Drinking Buddies
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave^
Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawk – Before Midnight*
Billy Ray – Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena
---
Next in line:
Tracy Letts – August: Osage County*
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber – The Spectacular Now*
Abdellatif Kechiche and Ghalia Lacroix – Blue Is the Warmest Color*
Comments: This is another category that seems pretty well set. (Famous last words, I know). Ridley seems to be far out ahead of the field in a fairly weak category and should win on Oscar night. I actually quite liked Winter's script (the line about Bond villains and boats, for example), but some will probably have a hard time with all the profanity (and worse). Linklater, Delpy, and Hawke figure to earn their second consecutive nomination for the third (and final?) film in a critically and culturally beloved series (one which I should probably get around to watching sometime). Ray's taut action script and Coogan and Pope's saccharine dramatic one are solid bets for the final two spots. (More on them if and when they are nominated.) Letts, who adapted his own play, is probably the only outsider with a real chance at spoiling the party. The other two would have to be at the top of a lot of ballots to make it to the ceremony, but I suppose it is possible.
RANDOM PREDICTIONS/OBSERVATIONS:
*Like I said above, I may well be overestimating the impact of the issues surrounding The Wolf of Wall Street. It might force its way into the big races.
*I'm most interested in seeing how both Actor races and the Original Screenplay race turns out.
*There really has to be more good roles for females, right?
*One film/performance not even listed in 'Next in line' will sneak in. It happens every year.
Done with four hours to spare. Time to sleep for six then pull up the nominations on my phone, as is tradition. Last year I went 34/44 -- not too shabby. Let's see if I beat that number this year. Maybe it will give me a head start on breaking my Oscar night losing streak. You'll here from me before then though. Until then, happy Oscar morning!
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Style or Substance? Golden Globes Predictions
One of the charms of the Golden Globes (besides the free-flowing alcohol and usually superior host choices) is the HFPA's recognition of *actual* comedy movies. Recent-ish nominees and winners have included Borat, The Hangover, and Bridesmaids. (Never you mind that The Tourist, Red, and Burlesque were all recently nominated... in the same year.) This year, that is not the case -- and I can't say I'm complaining. While none of the five Best Comedy/Musical nominees are actual comedies (or musicals, thank god), they are all excellent films well worthy of Oscar nominations themselves. (At least, I'm assuming they all are -- I have not yet seen Her.) In fact, I'd argue that the Comedy/Musical field is better top-to-bottom than the very top-heavy Drama field, which should make for a very interesting and unpredictable ceremony -- and one that should have even less correlation to the Oscars than usual. But it also means I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing with these predictions. So this should be fun! Let's dig in.
* = A film or performance I haven't seen
bold = my prediction
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine*
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County*
June Squibb, Nebraska
Logic: This one will come down to Lawrence and Nyong'o, and the winner will either confirm or debunk a long-held supposition about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association -- that they are wowed by star power. If that's true, Lawrence would be a shoo-in and Roberts could be considered a dark horse. But they have also been known to nominate and award relative unknowns -- just look at this category back in 2011. This year, I think they'll go with the superior performance in Nyong'o. Hers was one of the best of the year regardless of gender or screen time, heart-wrenching and powerful. Lawrence was fine as yet another manic-depressive dream girl in Russell's film, but was not nearly in the same class as Nyong'o. Ditto Squibb and her profane, charming performance as Bruce Dern's wife. I obviously have not seen Roberts's or Hawkins's performances, but they don't figure to have a chance here.
Second choice: Lawrence
My vote: Nyong'o
Snubbed: Julianne Moore, Don Jon
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush*
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Logic: We'll know a lot about 12 Years a Slave's chances in the Best Drama category after these two awards are announced. If Nyong'o and Fassbender sweep, it would signal a likely win. If only one or neither are awarded, it might not be the film's night. This award could also have a big impact on the Best Actor – Drama race, where 12 Years will once again square off with Dallas. But more on that later. In this category, I think the gender-bending, deeply sympathetic performance of Leto will win out over the visceral, deeply misanthropic character work of Fassbender. Fassbender is responsible for many of the hardest to watch parts of a hard to watch movie, and I'm not sure a body like the HFPA will award a performance like that. Leto, on the other hand, is a star of screen and stage (with his terrible band) and would be an easy box to tick off on the ballot. Cooper was solid but not spectacular in Hustle, but there is no award for best perm. Abdi is so good in Phillips that I actually thought the filmmakers hired an actual Somali pirate. He could be an interesting option at the Oscars, but not here. I haven't seen Bruhl's film, but he's the least likely winner here anyway.
Second choice: Fassbender
My vote: Abdi
Snubbed: James Franco, Spring Breakers
Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said*
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County*
Logic: Although most of the nominees are very well-liked, it would be a big upset if anyone but Adams won this award. Delpy and Gerwig both co-wrote their (well-regarded) movies, but their stars don't shine as bright as the others'. Louis-Dreyfuss is a double nominee this year (also for Veep) and can work a room about as well as anyone. You can never count Streep out of any awards race, but no one is talking about her movie and it just doesn't seem to be her year. That leaves Adams, who was the standout among Hustle's excellent ensemble. The wavering English accent, the romantic scheming, and, of course, the sideboob -- she had it all. As a sidenote, however, my favorite performance of the bunch is Gerwig's. Her eponymous Frances Halladay is is hilarious, sympathetic, and has some of the best lines of the year. Check on the film on Netflix streaming if you haven't already.
Second choice: Streep
My vote: Gerwig
Snubbed: Amy Acker, Much Ado About Nothing
Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her*
Logic: I'm by no means as certain about this category as I am about Adams above, but I have a hard time envisioning anyone but DiCaprio winning here. He's the biggest star with the meatiest, flashiest role of the bunch. Although some have questions about whether or not the film glorifies Jordan Belfort (I am not in this camp -- the movie plays like a more slapstick American Psycho), it can't be denied that DiCaprio put his all into the role. My next favorite and perhaps a dark horse is Isaac, whose Lleywn Davis is a rolling stone that cant' get out of its own way. There's something soulful in his work, even as his character does his best to be unlikeable. Probably the best of the bunch though is Dern -- his Woody Grant is another unlikeable -- but not unsympathetic -- character, weary and raspy but perhaps too subtle. He's another one with a better shot at the Oscars. Bale is the weak link here as a paunchy con artist -- and very much the straight man amidst three more livewire performances -- but the HFPA seems to really like the movie. I can't wait to see Her -- Phoenix is capable of perhaps the best work of anyone not named Daniel Day-Lewis. That said, the movie seems a bit small to have a shot at the Globes.
Second choice: Bale
My vote: Dern
Snubbed: Simon Pegg, The World's End
Best Actress in a Drama
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine*
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks*
Kate Winslet, Labor Day*
Bold: From everything I've read, this award is Blanchett's to lose. I will absolutely see the film before the Oscars, but for now all I can say is that she fits the profile -- foreign-born, respected veteran, and previous winner. Bullock is very much a threat here though -- her one-woman show in Gravity is very awards-friendly and, well, very good and a worthy potential winner. These two should provide an entertaining race at the Oscars. Dench is fine in Philomena, but the film is something of a trifle. (She's also in the same category as Streep though in that you can't really ever count her out.) I have not seen the other two performances, but I can't imagine a scenario where either of them wins, especially Winslet. Man, did the buzz for that movie die quickly. I still haven't brought myself to see Thompson's movie, but I guess I'll have to if she makes her way into the Oscar race.
Second choice: Bullock
My vote: Bullock
Snubbed: Amy Seimetz, Upstream Color
Best Actor in a Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom*
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost*
Logic: This is a really tough one to call -- perhaps the toughest of the night. Ejiofor, McConaughey, and Hanks all have a shot. Hell, I can even see scenarios where Elba (respected Brit playing a recently-deceased hero) and Redford (Hollywood legend getting a career-capping statue) pull off an upset. Of the remaining three, Hanks is probably the least likely winner. His film is easily my favorite of the three nominees in question, but he's won a ton of these things and the other two are red-hot. I think McConaughey has a great shot. In the parlance of awards season, his role has a lot going for it -- he lost a ton of weight, his movie has an important message, and, despite the material, it's a crowd-pleaser. But it's also the weaker performance in the much weaker movie. And Ejiofor's awards-season résumé blows McConaughey's away, what with the whole slavery thing. Plus he's British (as is the film's director). But none of that matters as much as the fact that his performance is excellent. I think he takes the trophy. (And likely the Oscar as well.)
Second choice: McConaughey
My vote: Hanks
Snubbed: none
Best Screenplay
Spike Jonze, Her*
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave
David O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle
Logic: Man, it seems like 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle are heading for a big-time Oscar showdown. Are these the two front-runners right now (along with Gravity)? More on that in future posts. I could be putting too many eggs in the slavery basket (ugh... I'm sorry about that one, haha), but I think it wins out over Russell and Singer's script at this point in a clear case of substance over style. The opposite would absolutely not surprise me though. I doubt the HFPA will be looking at it this way, but while the Hustle script comes together very nicely in the third act and has some very well-drawn characters (especially Jeremy Renner's), it's also very voice-over heavy and some of the dialogue is a bit on the nose. Ridley's script is functional for the most part, but punctuated by some truly affecting, emotionally explosive scenes. Nelson's script has a great premise, but the actors make that movie, not the writing. I can't for the life of me figure out why the Philomena script was nominated other than the fact that it's British. (This year's ceremony seems a bit like BAFTA 2.0.) There are some nice moments, but it is altogether too cloying and full of unearned payoffs. If the HFPA was going to award Her, it would be here. More when I see the film.
Second choice: Russell and Singer
My vote: Ridley (presumably until I see Her)
Snubbed: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Frances Ha
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Logic: This is a strong group. It wouldn't surprise me if this were the final five for the Oscars -- although Scorsese, the Coens, and even Spike Jonze could sneak in. Of these five, Greengrass and Payne are the low men on the totem pole. Both did fine work -- Phillips is one of the tightest action movies in recent memory and I really liked Nebraska's spare style. But they're both probably out here. Russell could be a spoiler. He's on a bit of a hot streak with his last three films receiving Globes nominations, but the film will be rewarded elsewhere and the other two seem like stronger candidates. McQueen is absolutely a contender, but I think the very trait that marks his direction works against him here. 12 Years is very uncompromising and difficult to watch at times. This works in the actors' favor, but I think it will miss out on the big awards because of it. That leaves Cuarón, whose invisible hand is present in every second of Gravity. It's big, it's showy, it's populist, and it is a stunning technical achievement -- the exact same formula James Cameron used to win here for Avatar. Let's just hope Cuarón's victory speech is less smug than Cameron's though.
Second choice: McQueen
My vote: Cuarón
Snubbed: none
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
American Hustle
Her*
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf Of Wall Street
Logic: Other than maybe Amy Adams, this is the pick I'm most confident in. Llewyn Davis and Nebraska are too quiet, Her is too small, and Wolf is too long and too divisive to win here. It's my least favorite of the four that I've seen, but American Hustle has the cast, the Hollywood sheen, the charm, and the buzz needed to snag this prize. I do like the movie, but David O. Russell movies have offered diminishing returns since Three Kings, his best film. (Really.) Wolf is my favorite (the quaaludes scene! Jonah Hill's veneers!), and Llewyn Davis and Nebraska have both settled nicely toward the back end of my best films of the year list. I'm sure I'll have more to say once I've seen Her and once these movies all (likely) score Best Picture noms, but for now, American Hustle is just the piece of entertainment that usually wins here.
Second choice: The Wolf of Wall Street
My vote: The Wolf of Wall Street
Snubbed: Frances Ha
Best Motion Picture - Drama
12 Years A Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush*
Logic: I pretty much explained this one in the Best Director category -- Gravity is the populist crowd-pleaser while 12 Years is the serious critical darling. I don't see any of the other films as having a chance. Phillips is a worthy nominee, but is a tier lower than the other two. Philomena (really?) and Rush are just filler. I'm surprised Dallas Buyers Club didn't get nominated here, or that there was no room for, I dunno, The Great Gatsby or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. A film like Mud never had a chance here, but would definitely belong. Regardless, these two films along with American Hustle will make for an intriguing Oscar race in the coming weeks. Due to a tweak in the Oscar schedule, we won't even know the Oscar nominees until the Globe winners are announced -- usually we'd know the nominees by now. I'm looking forward to the race. More comments when the nominees are announced next week.
Second choice: 12 Years a Slave
My vote: Gravity
Snubbed: Mud
TV Notes: I don't keep up with television nearly as much as I do with film, but I'll be rooting for anything to do with Breaking Bad, as well as Arrested Development, House of Cards, and Orange Is the New Black.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Another Irrelevant List: My Favorite Music of 2013
Might as well get it out of the way: 2013 was not an especially strong year for music. It was the year when the celebrity status of musicians very much eclipsed their creative output -- you know, the reason they are famous in the first place. People snapped up new records by Katy Perry, Jay Z, Eminem, Justin Timberlake -- all pop music royalty -- only to find a collection of thoroughly mediocre tunes in each case. Even diehard fans wouldn't call any of these 2013 top-sellers a career highlight of their favored artist. Is it any wonder record sales continue to plunge when the marketing strategy of an album -- gold-plated trucks, smartphone apps, bizarre Brent Musberger interviews -- creates more of a buzz than the actual album itself? And it's certainly not a good bellwether when the most buzzworthy, zeitgeist-iest musical moment of 2013 involved a Disney-princess-turned-suckubus grinding a teddy bear during a performance of perhaps the most inane pop song of the year. (No link needed -- you can already picture the scene in your head, can't you?)
All this without mentioning Kanye West, the other contender for musical firebrand of the year, whose 2013 might wrongly be more remembered for his Kardashian kourtship, baby naming fiasco, wildly silly music video, and concert rants than the most aggressively anti-pop pop album of the year (Yeezus), which hasn't even sniffed a million copies sold. Drake has no business selling twice as many albums as Kanye West. None. But that's 2013 for you. It sure seems like Justin Timberlake would rather be making movies than music these days, and I can't say I blame him, what with the Coen brothers knocking on his door. He -- like the rest of the pop music royal court -- is too famous to *just* make music. They have brands to promote, thrones to watch, empires to build.
Perhaps, then, it's no surprise that the best album of the top selling albums of 2013 is Daft Punk's Random Access Memories -- the famously un-famous duo who lets their music (and/or Pharrell Williams) do their talking for them. Even the Grammys -- easily the most arbitrary and out of touch awards show in existence -- seems to agree, nominating the reclusive Frenchmen for Record and Album of the Year (a distinction I've never understood). But then again, "Blurred Lines" is also nominated for Record of the Year... which brings me back to my original point. "Get Lucky" or no, this was not a strong year for music. So much so, in fact, that I couldn't quite pin down a top-10 list I was satisfied with. So I decided to change it up a bit this year. I mean, if I'm going to hand out irrelevant distinctions, the Grammys already have a pretty good model. This year, instead of my usual top-10 list, instead I present to you my equivalent, replete with arbitrary categories, genre bending, and surely some controversy. So, as the Grammy-winning (!) man once said, "Let's get it started in here."
Best Ska/Punk Album
Alkaline Trio - My Shame Is True
Big D and the Kids Table - Stomp/Stroll
Less Than Jake - See the Light
The Night Marchers - Allez Allez
Streetlight Manifesto - The Hands That Thieve
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Honorable Mentions: The Copyrights - Shit's Fucked, The Dangerous Summer - Golden Record, Direct Hit! - Brainless God
I almost exclusively listened to ska/punk my first few years of college (having graduated from my nü metal high school days... ugh), and I still go back to that well now and again. Although I don't necessarily keep up with the "new" bands in the scene (all five nominees are old hands), a number of old favorites released records in 2013. The best of the bunch and a perennial favorite back in the day is Streetlight Manifesto. The Hands That Thieve, Tomas Kalnoky and Co.'s third studio album (they're on a robust 3 albums per 10 years pace -- not including unnecessary re-recordings and covers albums), continues in the exact same brainy, immaculately-arranged vein as their previous efforts. My personal favorite track, "Ungrateful," is a throwback to Kalnoky's Catch-22 days. It has a healthy dose of punk-rock backbone amid the bombastic horns and serves as a peek into an alternate universe where C-22 never broke up. What a wonderful world it could be!
As for the rest, the new ALK3 is another batch of somewhat overproduced goth-punk jams, many of which are too clever by half. Not a ringing endorsement, I know, but it's perfectly listenable and plays well live. Big D's latest, a double album, is more filler than killer, but brings the swagger (Stomp) and the groove (Stroll) in equal parts. LTJ's record is their best since 2003's Anthem and is fun live (even if I had to fly solo at the show). Finally, Rocket From the Crypt may be no more, but John Reis is back with The Night Marchers, another balls to the wall punk-rock outfit that does the San Diego scene proud.
Best (Indie?) Rock Album
Arctic Monkeys - AM
Fitz and the Tantrums - More Than Just a Dream
Franz Ferdinand - Right Thoughts, Right Words, Right Action
Superchunk - I Hate Music
Vampire Weekend - Modern Vampires of the City
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Honorable Mentions: Dawes - Stories Don't End, Jimmy Eat World - Damage, Los Campesinos! - No Blues, Portugal. The Man - Evil Friends
That's right -- the best "rock" record of the year doesn't even feature a single guitar. Instead, Fitz and the Tantrums are built around jangly keys, jaunty horns, handclap percussion, and the interplay between Michael Fitzpatrick's and Noelle Scaggs's vocals. The result is a charming and confident throwback sound that will make you think your Spotify turned into an AM radio station. More Than Just a Dream sees the group leaving behind the tinges of Motown found on 2010's Pickin' Up the Pieces and moving onto the blue-eyed soul stylings of Hall & Oates. The group wears the studio gloss well. "Fools Gold" has enough heart to fill a stadium and a chorus to bring the house down. I'm bummed I missed the chance to see them live this year (and at the Crescent, even -- d'oh!). A Fitz show is going on my 2014 to-do list. Better get my dancin' shoes shined...
A couple of the other records had a solid case. AM is the Artic Monkeys' best record since their debut -- a down 'n' dirty set that's an octave or two short of The Black Keys' best stuff. Modern Vampires of the City had all the hipster blogs a-flutter (it's Pitchfork's #1 album of the year) with its arresting swirl of irreverence, verve, and pathos. A bit morose at times for my tastes, but a fine album nonetheless. The other two are just solid. I've never been much of a Franz sympathizer, but Right Thoughts... wormed its way into my ears, while Superchunk's '90s indie for hipster parents made me want to dig into their old stuff. (As far as Reflektor goes... I just couldn't get into it. If this is what happens when you give indie rock royalty a Grammy, I'm fine with Adele or whoever winning the next eleventy Grammys.)
Best Electronic(-ish) Album
Daft Punk - Random Access Memories
Kavinsky - OutRun
The Naked and Famous - In Rolling Waves
Sky Ferreira - Night Time, My Time
Tegan and Sara - Heartthrob
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Honorable Mentions: Blood Orange - Cupid Deluxe, Chvrches - The Bones of What You Believe In, Icona Pop - This Is... Icona Pop, Poliça - Shulasmith
2013 was a banner year for electronic-leaning, eminently-danceable music with female vocals (see: 7 of the 9 albums above). If I were to have told you that Tegan and Sara would put out the best album in that mold at this time last year, you'd probably have said I'd had too many Molsons. Yet Heartthrob is absolutely the synth-iest, most dance-friendly record of the year. Heartthrob sees everyone's favorite Canadian lesbian sisters abandon any hints of indie-folk or post-punk that marked earlier releases and fully embrace the New Wave/'80s synth-pop side that cropped up on 2009's Sainthood. For the full effect, listen to "I Was a Fool," a stunning piano ballad that could play over the closing credits of a lost Tony Scott (R.I.P.) masterpiece, the kind where the brooding hero gets the girl and they kiss in the rain. Heartthrob is the most cinematic record of the year and a welcome evolution in the band's sound. I'll be interested to see where they go next.
T&S edged out Daft Punk, whose Random Access Memories spawned "Get Lucky," a Song of the Year candidate with or without the capital letters and the official distinction they represent. If only the album itself weren't so uneven -- did the nine-minute spoken word piece *really* have to be the third track? I mean, really? But back to the whole "most cinematic record" thing -- Kavinsky's OutRun, aka Drive: The Album, has a pretty convincing case for that title as well. You won't find a better record for driving in this year or any other any time soon. The Naked and Famous pulled an inverse Tegan and Sara, eschewing the pop flourishes that buoyed 2010's Passive Me, Aggressive You in favor of moody atmospherics, acoustic guitars (!), and a generally lovely downtempo aesthetic. Lastly, Sky Ferreira does her brazen, bewbs-baring album cover justice with her set of raw, intimate drrty grrl pop numbers that Lana Del Rey isn't talented enough and Lorde isn't old enough (cue uncomfortable silence) to pull off.
Best Rap Album
Chance the Rapper - Acid Rap
Childish Gambino - Because the Internet
Kanye West - Yeezus
The Lonely Island - The Wack Album
Run the Jewels - Run the Jewels
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Honorable Mentions: Danny Brown - Old, Eminem - The Marshall Mathers LP 2
I mean, come on. Like it could be anything else. Yeezus is a singular statement from a singular artist, an id-fueled romp through the subconscious of one of today's most scrutinized artists. It invites bold comparisons, dares listeners to take his bait -- "Wait, does Yeezy *really* think he's a modern-day Jesus?" The answer, as it always is with Kanye West, is complicated -- "I know he's the most high / But I am a close high." Like its creator, Yeezus is brash, disjointed, and uncompromising, seemingly designed -- yes, designed, and carefully -- as a rejection of the very aesthetics that made him a star in the first place ("Soon as they like you / Make them unlike you"). It's a fascinating piece of emotional agitprop -- yet it fittingly ends with "Bound 2," which, aforementioned silly music video aside, hearkens back to the Kanye West of old with its samples and *gorgeous* hook. It's the kind of 180 that makes you say, "Wait a minute -- was Yeezy fucking with us the whole time?" Maybe. If so, a cruel joke never seemed so clever.
In just about any other year, the Killer Mike and El-P collaboration Run the Jewels would have been the frontrunner for best rap album. It's every bit as hyperbolic and bombastic as Yeezus, but delivered with a wink rather than a snarl. And if there is a rap album with better, more bone-rattling beats in 2013, I have yet to hear it. The Lonely Island also deserve a shout out for their guest star-laden, grin-inducing 2013 offering. It's one of the only albums I listened to as much as Yeezus this year, albeit for very different reasons. Chance the Rapper and Childish Gambino both appear on each other's albums and nabbed the last two spots on the list. Chance sports a jazzy, free-flowing style and a generally much more sunny disposition than most other MCs these days. Childish's second studio effort is a mess -- a sprawling, over-produced clusterfuck of a mess -- but it also has a certain insistence, a certain draw that makes me want to wade in a little deeper with each listen.
Best (Female) Pop/Rock Album
Best Coast - Fade Away EP
Haim - Days Are Gone
Paramore - Paramore
Rilo Kiley - RKives
Sara Bareilles - The Blessed Unrest
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Honorable Mentions: Camera Obscura - Desire Lines, Katy Perry - Prism
Most critics/bloggers seem content to give this slot to the lovely ladies of Haim. Don't sleep on Paramore's new record, I say. Although it's on the shortlist for Worst Album Cover of the Year and was released way back in April, Paramore is an assured and fully realized release by a band that has worked hard to perfect their craft. It is not a waif-thin ray of SoCal sunshine borne on the wings of blogger hype and the wobbly legs of an unpolished live show. (Note: I LOVED the Haim record. This is just better.) The album highlight here is "Ain't It Fun," featuring dynamo Hayley Williams at her most brassy, a slinky guitar riff, crystalline percussion, and a sing-along gospel chorus that has to be a blast live. If there's a song that out-"Wires" "The Wire," this is it.
That said (and as I mentioned above), Days Are Gone is an excellent album. Stevie Nicks meets Wilson Phillips? Sign me up. They have a ways to go as a live act, but their studio work is polished to confection. Best Coast's EP adds a new layer of maturity to the duo's oeuvre, and disc-closer "I Don't Know How" is one of my favorite tracks of the year, Rilo Kiley by way of Social Distortion. Speaking of my favorite defunct L.A. indie rock outfit, their b-sides and rarities comp, RKives, is a worthy addition to their discography, another winsome infusion of cynicism and sunshine. And I always have to give love to Sara B., that mistress of the mid-tempo radio ditty. She might never write me another "Love Song," but she doesn't need to.
Best Singer-Songwriter Album
Lucero - Texas & Tennessee EP
Matt Pond - The Lives Inside the Lines In Your Hand
Mikal Cronin - MCII
Sundowner - Neon Fiction
Waxahatchee - Cerulean Salt
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Honorable Mentions: Brendan Benson - You Were Right, Josh Ritter - The Beast In Its Tracks, Laura Marling - Once I Was An Eagle, Laura Stevenson - Wheel
Aka "Best Sad Bastard Music." And in the sad bastard game, nobody comes close to Ben Nichols, the lead singer and chief songwriter of Lucero. Although I was a bit underwhelmed at the time by 2012's Women & Work, it has since grown on me as I have come to accept that 2009's mostly exuberant 1372 Overton Park is a bit of a black sheep in the group's discography. Lucero does sad bastard music and does it better than anyone. Texas & Tennessee is just the latest proof. Born out of the W&W recording sessions, as well as the band's contributions to Jeff Nichols's -- brother of Ben -- excellent film Mud, T&T is an acoustic 4-song paean to the one who got away and the things you do instead of chasing her. ("I picture her dancing with the boys in the bars all night / She might not be theirs, but she sure as hell ain't mine.") The title track and standout track "Union Pacific Line" are heartfelt slow-burners while the final two tracks add a bit of twang and bounce. It may only be 4 songs, but Texas & Tennessee is one of the year's best releases.
Chris McCaughan also has a claim to the sad bastard crown -- 2007's Four One Five Two was the soundtrack to the worst of my own sad bastard days. Neon Fiction, his third album, isn't as raw or vital -- and I more and more find myself missing the contributions of vocalist/cellist Jenny Choi -- but it's certainly a welcome contribution from the Lawrence Arms axe man. I'll fully admit: I only checked out Waxahatchee after seeing it cited on year-end list after year-end list, but man if Katie Crutchfield isn't the crown queen of the sad bastard-ettes. Soulful, mournful, and plenty caustic, Cerulean Salt more than lives up to its evocatory title. I was never much of a fan of Matt Pond PA, but for some reason I'm on board when you take away the "PA." The album title (and certain song titles) make him more of a sensitive bastard than a true sad bastard, but the record is worthy of a listen either way. Rounding out the field is Mikal Cronin, who adds a garage-rock flair to the sad bastard template to good effect -- he could be an honorary member of The Raconteurs.
Song of the Year
Daft Punk - "Get Lucky"
Fitz and the Tantrums - "Fools Gold"
Kanye West - "Bound 2"
Lucero - "Union Pacific Line"
Tegan and Sara - "I Was a Fool"
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Honorary Mentions: Best Coast - "I Don't Know How", Haim - "The Wire", Paramore - "Ain't It Fun", Streetlight Manifesto - "Ungrateful", TV on the Radio - "Mercy", Vampire Weekend - "Diane Young"
Even if I wasn't particularly impressed with the musical offerings of 2013 overall, that's a pretty killer selection of tracks. And yes, yes, I know -- 2013 was the year of "Get Lucky." Preaching to the choir here -- I can't think of the last major radio hit that I liked as much. It's an absolutely transcendent song. But have you HEARD "I Was a Fool"? It opens with a tinkling piano melody that doesn't so much tug at your heartstrings as tie them into a neat bow that's undone by the time you get to Tegan Quin's first forlorn "I was a fooooool..." chorus. Add in Sara's playful harmonies, the lush, layered production, the masterfully-executed fadeout, and Ann $%#&ing Veal in the music video and you've got a song that transcends the transcendent. There was not a better song in 2013. There just wasn't. "Get Lucky" is a worthy runner-up and the party song of the year, "Union Pacific Line" might be the prettiest song Ben Nichols has ever written, "Fools Gold" is the "singing in your car" song of the year, and Charlie Wilson's hook in "Bound 2" might be the best musical moment of the year -- a real parting of the clouds moment on perhaps the darkest album of the year.
Record Album of the Year
Daft Punk - Random Access Memories
Fitz and the Tantrums - More Than Just a Dream
Kanye West - Yeezus
Lucero - Texas & Tennessee EP
Tegan and Sara - Heartthrob
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Honorable Mentions: Arctic Monkeys - AM, Haim - Days Are Gone, The Lonely Island - The Wack Album, Paramore - Paramore, Run The Jewels - Run The Jewels, Streetlight Manifesto - The Hands That Thieve
The was easily the most difficult category to decide -- probably as it should be. There were two big internal debates -- Kanye vs. Tegan and Sara for the #1 spot and the battle for the #5 spot. I'll tackle the second debate first. Ye, T&S, Fitz, and Lucero were always going to be in. As you can surmise, I eventually gave the fifth spot to Daft Punk. Now, if I were doing the standard top-10 list, Random Access Memories probably wouldn't be my #5 album. But that's the problem -- I'm not sure any of the honorary mentions would be either. They all feel they should be in the 8-10 cluster. Like I said, not a strong year for music. So I eventually went with RAM, as it gave us "Get Lucky" and is the critical consensus "best" album of the bunch. It's a cop-out, sure, but get back to me in six months when these records have all had a chance to settle and I'll probably have a better answer.
Now, for the first debate. I was all set to go with the upset -- the Canadian mavens of plaid turned lip gloss synth-pop vixens over the croissant king of hip-hop himself. But then I started writing about the albums. I found I had more -- and more interesting -- things to say about Yeezus than Hearttthrob. (The Quin sisters will be content with their Song of the Year win, I'm sure.) It's probably a close call as to which I'll be listening to more in a year, 3 years, 5 years -- Heartthrob has a timeless feel while there's no telling how well the industrial-punk-rap of Yeezus will age (it probably depends on Ye's next evolution) -- but I can say with certainty that I -- we, really, culturally-speaking -- will be talking and thinking more about Yeezus. More so than any other album this year -- more than Random Access Memories, more than Magna Carta Holy Grail or The 20/20 Experience (either volume), and more than (please God) Bangerz. For that reason, it gets my vote for Album (Record?) of the Year. Suck it, Grammys.
P.S. - I was in the house for that rant. I was going to add a category for Concert of the Year, but nothing I saw came close to the epic insanity of the Yeezus tour. Chalk up another win for Yeezy.
All this without mentioning Kanye West, the other contender for musical firebrand of the year, whose 2013 might wrongly be more remembered for his Kardashian kourtship, baby naming fiasco, wildly silly music video, and concert rants than the most aggressively anti-pop pop album of the year (Yeezus), which hasn't even sniffed a million copies sold. Drake has no business selling twice as many albums as Kanye West. None. But that's 2013 for you. It sure seems like Justin Timberlake would rather be making movies than music these days, and I can't say I blame him, what with the Coen brothers knocking on his door. He -- like the rest of the pop music royal court -- is too famous to *just* make music. They have brands to promote, thrones to watch, empires to build.
Perhaps, then, it's no surprise that the best album of the top selling albums of 2013 is Daft Punk's Random Access Memories -- the famously un-famous duo who lets their music (and/or Pharrell Williams) do their talking for them. Even the Grammys -- easily the most arbitrary and out of touch awards show in existence -- seems to agree, nominating the reclusive Frenchmen for Record and Album of the Year (a distinction I've never understood). But then again, "Blurred Lines" is also nominated for Record of the Year... which brings me back to my original point. "Get Lucky" or no, this was not a strong year for music. So much so, in fact, that I couldn't quite pin down a top-10 list I was satisfied with. So I decided to change it up a bit this year. I mean, if I'm going to hand out irrelevant distinctions, the Grammys already have a pretty good model. This year, instead of my usual top-10 list, instead I present to you my equivalent, replete with arbitrary categories, genre bending, and surely some controversy. So, as the Grammy-winning (!) man once said, "Let's get it started in here."
Best Ska/Punk AlbumAlkaline Trio - My Shame Is True
Big D and the Kids Table - Stomp/Stroll
Less Than Jake - See the Light
The Night Marchers - Allez Allez
Streetlight Manifesto - The Hands That Thieve
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Honorable Mentions: The Copyrights - Shit's Fucked, The Dangerous Summer - Golden Record, Direct Hit! - Brainless God
I almost exclusively listened to ska/punk my first few years of college (having graduated from my nü metal high school days... ugh), and I still go back to that well now and again. Although I don't necessarily keep up with the "new" bands in the scene (all five nominees are old hands), a number of old favorites released records in 2013. The best of the bunch and a perennial favorite back in the day is Streetlight Manifesto. The Hands That Thieve, Tomas Kalnoky and Co.'s third studio album (they're on a robust 3 albums per 10 years pace -- not including unnecessary re-recordings and covers albums), continues in the exact same brainy, immaculately-arranged vein as their previous efforts. My personal favorite track, "Ungrateful," is a throwback to Kalnoky's Catch-22 days. It has a healthy dose of punk-rock backbone amid the bombastic horns and serves as a peek into an alternate universe where C-22 never broke up. What a wonderful world it could be!
As for the rest, the new ALK3 is another batch of somewhat overproduced goth-punk jams, many of which are too clever by half. Not a ringing endorsement, I know, but it's perfectly listenable and plays well live. Big D's latest, a double album, is more filler than killer, but brings the swagger (Stomp) and the groove (Stroll) in equal parts. LTJ's record is their best since 2003's Anthem and is fun live (even if I had to fly solo at the show). Finally, Rocket From the Crypt may be no more, but John Reis is back with The Night Marchers, another balls to the wall punk-rock outfit that does the San Diego scene proud.
Best (Indie?) Rock AlbumArctic Monkeys - AM
Fitz and the Tantrums - More Than Just a Dream
Franz Ferdinand - Right Thoughts, Right Words, Right Action
Superchunk - I Hate Music
Vampire Weekend - Modern Vampires of the City
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Honorable Mentions: Dawes - Stories Don't End, Jimmy Eat World - Damage, Los Campesinos! - No Blues, Portugal. The Man - Evil Friends
That's right -- the best "rock" record of the year doesn't even feature a single guitar. Instead, Fitz and the Tantrums are built around jangly keys, jaunty horns, handclap percussion, and the interplay between Michael Fitzpatrick's and Noelle Scaggs's vocals. The result is a charming and confident throwback sound that will make you think your Spotify turned into an AM radio station. More Than Just a Dream sees the group leaving behind the tinges of Motown found on 2010's Pickin' Up the Pieces and moving onto the blue-eyed soul stylings of Hall & Oates. The group wears the studio gloss well. "Fools Gold" has enough heart to fill a stadium and a chorus to bring the house down. I'm bummed I missed the chance to see them live this year (and at the Crescent, even -- d'oh!). A Fitz show is going on my 2014 to-do list. Better get my dancin' shoes shined...
A couple of the other records had a solid case. AM is the Artic Monkeys' best record since their debut -- a down 'n' dirty set that's an octave or two short of The Black Keys' best stuff. Modern Vampires of the City had all the hipster blogs a-flutter (it's Pitchfork's #1 album of the year) with its arresting swirl of irreverence, verve, and pathos. A bit morose at times for my tastes, but a fine album nonetheless. The other two are just solid. I've never been much of a Franz sympathizer, but Right Thoughts... wormed its way into my ears, while Superchunk's '90s indie for hipster parents made me want to dig into their old stuff. (As far as Reflektor goes... I just couldn't get into it. If this is what happens when you give indie rock royalty a Grammy, I'm fine with Adele or whoever winning the next eleventy Grammys.)
Best Electronic(-ish) AlbumDaft Punk - Random Access Memories
Kavinsky - OutRun
The Naked and Famous - In Rolling Waves
Sky Ferreira - Night Time, My Time
Tegan and Sara - Heartthrob
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Honorable Mentions: Blood Orange - Cupid Deluxe, Chvrches - The Bones of What You Believe In, Icona Pop - This Is... Icona Pop, Poliça - Shulasmith
2013 was a banner year for electronic-leaning, eminently-danceable music with female vocals (see: 7 of the 9 albums above). If I were to have told you that Tegan and Sara would put out the best album in that mold at this time last year, you'd probably have said I'd had too many Molsons. Yet Heartthrob is absolutely the synth-iest, most dance-friendly record of the year. Heartthrob sees everyone's favorite Canadian lesbian sisters abandon any hints of indie-folk or post-punk that marked earlier releases and fully embrace the New Wave/'80s synth-pop side that cropped up on 2009's Sainthood. For the full effect, listen to "I Was a Fool," a stunning piano ballad that could play over the closing credits of a lost Tony Scott (R.I.P.) masterpiece, the kind where the brooding hero gets the girl and they kiss in the rain. Heartthrob is the most cinematic record of the year and a welcome evolution in the band's sound. I'll be interested to see where they go next.
T&S edged out Daft Punk, whose Random Access Memories spawned "Get Lucky," a Song of the Year candidate with or without the capital letters and the official distinction they represent. If only the album itself weren't so uneven -- did the nine-minute spoken word piece *really* have to be the third track? I mean, really? But back to the whole "most cinematic record" thing -- Kavinsky's OutRun, aka Drive: The Album, has a pretty convincing case for that title as well. You won't find a better record for driving in this year or any other any time soon. The Naked and Famous pulled an inverse Tegan and Sara, eschewing the pop flourishes that buoyed 2010's Passive Me, Aggressive You in favor of moody atmospherics, acoustic guitars (!), and a generally lovely downtempo aesthetic. Lastly, Sky Ferreira does her brazen, bewbs-baring album cover justice with her set of raw, intimate drrty grrl pop numbers that Lana Del Rey isn't talented enough and Lorde isn't old enough (cue uncomfortable silence) to pull off.
Best Rap AlbumChance the Rapper - Acid Rap
Childish Gambino - Because the Internet
Kanye West - Yeezus
The Lonely Island - The Wack Album
Run the Jewels - Run the Jewels
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Honorable Mentions: Danny Brown - Old, Eminem - The Marshall Mathers LP 2
I mean, come on. Like it could be anything else. Yeezus is a singular statement from a singular artist, an id-fueled romp through the subconscious of one of today's most scrutinized artists. It invites bold comparisons, dares listeners to take his bait -- "Wait, does Yeezy *really* think he's a modern-day Jesus?" The answer, as it always is with Kanye West, is complicated -- "I know he's the most high / But I am a close high." Like its creator, Yeezus is brash, disjointed, and uncompromising, seemingly designed -- yes, designed, and carefully -- as a rejection of the very aesthetics that made him a star in the first place ("Soon as they like you / Make them unlike you"). It's a fascinating piece of emotional agitprop -- yet it fittingly ends with "Bound 2," which, aforementioned silly music video aside, hearkens back to the Kanye West of old with its samples and *gorgeous* hook. It's the kind of 180 that makes you say, "Wait a minute -- was Yeezy fucking with us the whole time?" Maybe. If so, a cruel joke never seemed so clever.
In just about any other year, the Killer Mike and El-P collaboration Run the Jewels would have been the frontrunner for best rap album. It's every bit as hyperbolic and bombastic as Yeezus, but delivered with a wink rather than a snarl. And if there is a rap album with better, more bone-rattling beats in 2013, I have yet to hear it. The Lonely Island also deserve a shout out for their guest star-laden, grin-inducing 2013 offering. It's one of the only albums I listened to as much as Yeezus this year, albeit for very different reasons. Chance the Rapper and Childish Gambino both appear on each other's albums and nabbed the last two spots on the list. Chance sports a jazzy, free-flowing style and a generally much more sunny disposition than most other MCs these days. Childish's second studio effort is a mess -- a sprawling, over-produced clusterfuck of a mess -- but it also has a certain insistence, a certain draw that makes me want to wade in a little deeper with each listen.
Best (Female) Pop/Rock AlbumBest Coast - Fade Away EP
Haim - Days Are Gone
Paramore - Paramore
Rilo Kiley - RKives
Sara Bareilles - The Blessed Unrest
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Honorable Mentions: Camera Obscura - Desire Lines, Katy Perry - Prism
Most critics/bloggers seem content to give this slot to the lovely ladies of Haim. Don't sleep on Paramore's new record, I say. Although it's on the shortlist for Worst Album Cover of the Year and was released way back in April, Paramore is an assured and fully realized release by a band that has worked hard to perfect their craft. It is not a waif-thin ray of SoCal sunshine borne on the wings of blogger hype and the wobbly legs of an unpolished live show. (Note: I LOVED the Haim record. This is just better.) The album highlight here is "Ain't It Fun," featuring dynamo Hayley Williams at her most brassy, a slinky guitar riff, crystalline percussion, and a sing-along gospel chorus that has to be a blast live. If there's a song that out-"Wires" "The Wire," this is it.
That said (and as I mentioned above), Days Are Gone is an excellent album. Stevie Nicks meets Wilson Phillips? Sign me up. They have a ways to go as a live act, but their studio work is polished to confection. Best Coast's EP adds a new layer of maturity to the duo's oeuvre, and disc-closer "I Don't Know How" is one of my favorite tracks of the year, Rilo Kiley by way of Social Distortion. Speaking of my favorite defunct L.A. indie rock outfit, their b-sides and rarities comp, RKives, is a worthy addition to their discography, another winsome infusion of cynicism and sunshine. And I always have to give love to Sara B., that mistress of the mid-tempo radio ditty. She might never write me another "Love Song," but she doesn't need to.
Best Singer-Songwriter Album Lucero - Texas & Tennessee EP
Matt Pond - The Lives Inside the Lines In Your Hand
Mikal Cronin - MCII
Sundowner - Neon Fiction
Waxahatchee - Cerulean Salt
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Honorable Mentions: Brendan Benson - You Were Right, Josh Ritter - The Beast In Its Tracks, Laura Marling - Once I Was An Eagle, Laura Stevenson - Wheel
Aka "Best Sad Bastard Music." And in the sad bastard game, nobody comes close to Ben Nichols, the lead singer and chief songwriter of Lucero. Although I was a bit underwhelmed at the time by 2012's Women & Work, it has since grown on me as I have come to accept that 2009's mostly exuberant 1372 Overton Park is a bit of a black sheep in the group's discography. Lucero does sad bastard music and does it better than anyone. Texas & Tennessee is just the latest proof. Born out of the W&W recording sessions, as well as the band's contributions to Jeff Nichols's -- brother of Ben -- excellent film Mud, T&T is an acoustic 4-song paean to the one who got away and the things you do instead of chasing her. ("I picture her dancing with the boys in the bars all night / She might not be theirs, but she sure as hell ain't mine.") The title track and standout track "Union Pacific Line" are heartfelt slow-burners while the final two tracks add a bit of twang and bounce. It may only be 4 songs, but Texas & Tennessee is one of the year's best releases.
Chris McCaughan also has a claim to the sad bastard crown -- 2007's Four One Five Two was the soundtrack to the worst of my own sad bastard days. Neon Fiction, his third album, isn't as raw or vital -- and I more and more find myself missing the contributions of vocalist/cellist Jenny Choi -- but it's certainly a welcome contribution from the Lawrence Arms axe man. I'll fully admit: I only checked out Waxahatchee after seeing it cited on year-end list after year-end list, but man if Katie Crutchfield isn't the crown queen of the sad bastard-ettes. Soulful, mournful, and plenty caustic, Cerulean Salt more than lives up to its evocatory title. I was never much of a fan of Matt Pond PA, but for some reason I'm on board when you take away the "PA." The album title (and certain song titles) make him more of a sensitive bastard than a true sad bastard, but the record is worthy of a listen either way. Rounding out the field is Mikal Cronin, who adds a garage-rock flair to the sad bastard template to good effect -- he could be an honorary member of The Raconteurs.
Song of the YearDaft Punk - "Get Lucky"
Fitz and the Tantrums - "Fools Gold"
Kanye West - "Bound 2"
Lucero - "Union Pacific Line"
Tegan and Sara - "I Was a Fool"
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Honorary Mentions: Best Coast - "I Don't Know How", Haim - "The Wire", Paramore - "Ain't It Fun", Streetlight Manifesto - "Ungrateful", TV on the Radio - "Mercy", Vampire Weekend - "Diane Young"
Even if I wasn't particularly impressed with the musical offerings of 2013 overall, that's a pretty killer selection of tracks. And yes, yes, I know -- 2013 was the year of "Get Lucky." Preaching to the choir here -- I can't think of the last major radio hit that I liked as much. It's an absolutely transcendent song. But have you HEARD "I Was a Fool"? It opens with a tinkling piano melody that doesn't so much tug at your heartstrings as tie them into a neat bow that's undone by the time you get to Tegan Quin's first forlorn "I was a fooooool..." chorus. Add in Sara's playful harmonies, the lush, layered production, the masterfully-executed fadeout, and Ann $%#&ing Veal in the music video and you've got a song that transcends the transcendent. There was not a better song in 2013. There just wasn't. "Get Lucky" is a worthy runner-up and the party song of the year, "Union Pacific Line" might be the prettiest song Ben Nichols has ever written, "Fools Gold" is the "singing in your car" song of the year, and Charlie Wilson's hook in "Bound 2" might be the best musical moment of the year -- a real parting of the clouds moment on perhaps the darkest album of the year.
Record Album of the Year
Daft Punk - Random Access Memories
Fitz and the Tantrums - More Than Just a Dream
Kanye West - Yeezus
Lucero - Texas & Tennessee EP
Tegan and Sara - Heartthrob
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Honorable Mentions: Arctic Monkeys - AM, Haim - Days Are Gone, The Lonely Island - The Wack Album, Paramore - Paramore, Run The Jewels - Run The Jewels, Streetlight Manifesto - The Hands That Thieve
The was easily the most difficult category to decide -- probably as it should be. There were two big internal debates -- Kanye vs. Tegan and Sara for the #1 spot and the battle for the #5 spot. I'll tackle the second debate first. Ye, T&S, Fitz, and Lucero were always going to be in. As you can surmise, I eventually gave the fifth spot to Daft Punk. Now, if I were doing the standard top-10 list, Random Access Memories probably wouldn't be my #5 album. But that's the problem -- I'm not sure any of the honorary mentions would be either. They all feel they should be in the 8-10 cluster. Like I said, not a strong year for music. So I eventually went with RAM, as it gave us "Get Lucky" and is the critical consensus "best" album of the bunch. It's a cop-out, sure, but get back to me in six months when these records have all had a chance to settle and I'll probably have a better answer.
Now, for the first debate. I was all set to go with the upset -- the Canadian mavens of plaid turned lip gloss synth-pop vixens over the croissant king of hip-hop himself. But then I started writing about the albums. I found I had more -- and more interesting -- things to say about Yeezus than Hearttthrob. (The Quin sisters will be content with their Song of the Year win, I'm sure.) It's probably a close call as to which I'll be listening to more in a year, 3 years, 5 years -- Heartthrob has a timeless feel while there's no telling how well the industrial-punk-rap of Yeezus will age (it probably depends on Ye's next evolution) -- but I can say with certainty that I -- we, really, culturally-speaking -- will be talking and thinking more about Yeezus. More so than any other album this year -- more than Random Access Memories, more than Magna Carta Holy Grail or The 20/20 Experience (either volume), and more than (please God) Bangerz. For that reason, it gets my vote for Album (Record?) of the Year. Suck it, Grammys.
P.S. - I was in the house for that rant. I was going to add a category for Concert of the Year, but nothing I saw came close to the epic insanity of the Yeezus tour. Chalk up another win for Yeezy.
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