Now that I've written up my annual Fake Oscars, I can turn my attention toward the real thing. As I start writing this on Thursday, there's still a very real two-horse race between One Battle After Another and Sinners, which are actually my top two movies of the year. OBAA is the presumptive favorite, but my personal #1, Sinners, is only the most-nominated film in Oscars history and is riding a ton of momentum and goodwill at the moment. These two films are facing off in no less than five out of the eight major categories. So let's start my usual predix with a category where neither of them figures to win.
After the Golden Globes, I was sure Teyana Taylor would win this award—and she still might. If the Academy likes OBAA even more than we thought—and they already like it a lot—that tide could lift Taylor to an Oscar. The same logic applies to Mosaku, my personal favorite performance of the nominees. The Sentimental Value ladies (Lilleaas is excellent; Fanning is merely good) are also-rans here. All that said, odds and prognostications seem to have crystalized around Amy Madigan for her wonderfully demented work as Aunt Gladys in Weapons. She certainly wouldn't get my vote, but I'm all for more horror representation at the most prestigious awards show of them all, so I won't be mad at all if she hoists the trophy on Sunday. I'm also not entirely ruling out an upset for Taylor or Mosaku.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Mosaku, 2) Taylor, 3) Lilleaas, 4) Madigan, 5) Fanning
This race seems a little more wide open, as just about everyone has won a major precursor: del Toro won the NBR, Elordi won the Critics Choice, Penn won the SAG and BAFTA, and Skarsgård won the Golden Globe. Only Lindo doesn't have a major precursor to his name—yet he's still alive as a spoiler, a well-respected veteran who could benefit from a Sinners night. He has more of a chance than del Toro (who has been overtaken by Penn) and Elordi (who just feels like an also-ran). But this figures to come down to Penn and Skarsgård, another respected vet up for his first-ever Oscar. It seems that Penn didn't really campaign much for what would be his third Oscar, potentially opening the door for someone else. But that hasn't stopped him from winning yet, including two of the more important precursors. So I'm going with Sean Penn for his slimy, scheming Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Lindo, 2) Penn, 3) Skarsgård, 4) del Toro, 5) Elordi
This is the first of three major categories that feel all but sewn up at this point. The tastefully named Jessie Buckley will almost certainly win for her performance as Agnes Shakespeare in the torporous Hamnet. I'm not sure why voters have flocked to this overwrought performance all awards season long when rangier, more layered performances from Byrne and Reinsve were right there. Oh well. Buckley is verifiably a talented actress, so it's not the worst thing in the world that she'll have an Oscar on her mantel. Of the rest, I liked Stone's Bugonia performance, but she's been better. Hudson was also quite good but her nomination was more of a feat of Hollywood campaigning (a la Andrea Riseborough a few years back) than on the merits of her just-fine-in-an-inspirational-movie performance.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Byrne, 2) Reinsve, 3) Stone, 4) Buckley, 5) Hudson
This is the only major category where nothing would really surprise me. Now, Hawke and Moura winning would be monumental upsets, but I wouldn't be completely shocked. I do think this comes down to one of Chalamet, DiCaprio, and Jordan, though—all of whom have been frontrunners at one point. Leo's time in the sun was shortest-lived, really for maybe only a few weeks after OBAA came out. For much of awards season, Chalamet has seemingly been in front, but his chances have faded a bit of late due to off-screen him constantly putting his foot in his mouth on the awards circuit and off-screen controversy around the Safdies. It's really only been of late that Michael B. Jordan has gained frontrunner status, fresh off his monumental SAG win. If Sinners winds up missing out on the top prizes, this could be a great chance for the Academy to award the film in a big way.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Jordan, 2) DiCaprio, 3) Chalamet, 4) Hawke, 5) Moura
Both writing categories seem pretty much locked at this point. Paul Thomas Anderson should easily win his first Oscar (ever, but also of the night?) for OBAA. He's won just about every precursor imaginable and his film is the Best Picture frontrunner, so this is one of the easiest calls of the night. Of the rest, only Tracy's Onion-article-came-to-life script for Bugonia impressed me. Hamnet and Train Dreams are typical awards bait and I honestly don't know why del Toro's very faithful Frankenstein adaptation was nominated here.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Anderson, 2) Tracy, 3) Bentley and Kwedar, 4) del Toro, 5) Zhao and O'Farrell
Like I said above, this category is all but decided: Ryan Coogler will win his first Oscar (of the night?) for Sinners. Like Anderson, he has won basically all the major precursors and his film is firmly in the top two in the Best Picture race. He's gonna win here. Overall, this is a much stronger category than Adapted—which is always the case. It'll never happen, but I'd like to see just one writing award like the Golden Globes. Anyway, Vogt and Trier's script is my second-favorite of the nominees, but there's no real weak link. Bronstein and Safdie do Uncut Gems, but Different; Panahi crafted a compelling thriller out of little more than a prosthetic leg, a van, and a wedding dress; and even Blue Moon was eminently watchable even though there are few things I care about on this earth less than Broadway musicals.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Coogler, 2) Vogt and Trier, 3) Bronstein and Safdie, 4) TBD, 5) TBD
Yep, we've got another, ahem, battle between OBAA and Sinners. Zhao is a previous winner and is probably #3 on the most ballots, while Trier is a first-time nominee here (after original screenplay and international film nominations for The Worst Person in the World in 2022) and Safdie nabbed his first-ever Oscar nom. But none of them have chance as this will come down to Anderson and Coogler. While I think Coogler's work is slightly superior, consensus seems to be that Paul Thomas Anderson will win his first Best Director Oscar in four attempts. His film is timely, moving, funny, and, obviously impeccably crafted—I just think Sinners is just a generational achievement. But I'll be happy for PTA.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Coogler, 2) Anderson, 3) Safdie, 4) Trier, 5) Zhao
I usually go on a bit of a "bigger picture" tangent for this category, trying to figure out what a win for certain films will mean for the Academy, for the filmmaking industry, for pop culture at large. You know, "What's at stake?" I'd love to do so this year, but I'm unfortunately running out of time—the ceremony starts in just over an hour and we have to pick up booze and snacks on our way to our usual small Oscar gathering.
So I'll just say this for now. (Note that I may come back and add in my tangent after the fact.) When choosing between OBAA and Sinners, there's no wrong choice. They're two of the best films of this decade and would both be more than deserving winners. I personally prefer Sinners—the year's only true masterpiece, I think—but would be very happy for PTA and OBAA should they prevail. (I do think Director/Picture will be a package deal, but a split wouldn't *totally* shock me.)
So I don't really think much is at stake this year. The two contenders are both outstanding efforts, personal films from two of the most talented writer-directors working today. When you look at the numbers, it's kind of hard to deny One Battle After Another. It's just won so many of the big, important precursors. Sinners does seem to have momentum and "vibes" on its side, so an mini-upset here wouldn't really surprise me. But I think it'll be OBAA up on stage when all is said and done.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Sinners, 2) One Battle After Another, 3) Bugonia, 4) Sentimental Value, 5) F1, 6) Marty Supreme, 7) The Secret Agent, 8) Frankenstein, 9) Train Dreams, 10) Hamnet
As usual, we'll go LIGHTNING ROUND for the remaining categories.
Sentimental Value (Norway) – directed by Joachim Trier
I'm not going to look this up, but I assume that every film in this category that has also been nominated for Best Picture has won. So The Secret Agent could also win, but this is the clear frontrunner.
My Non-Existent Vote: Sentimental Value
KPop Demon Hunters – directed by Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans
Zootopia 2 had huge box office numbers, so you can't discount it here. But KPop Demon Hunters is far and away the year's most talked-about animated movie and is the definite frontrunner here.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
The Perfect Neighbor – directed by Geeta Gandbhir
This seems to be between Neighbor and Mr Nobody Against Putin. Both are timely but I'm guessing the more US-centric one will prevail. I can't even remember the last time I saw a nominee here.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
Michael Bauman – One Battle After Another
Like many categories, this one seems to be between Sinners and OBAA. I personally prefer Autumn Durald Arkapaw's work for Sinners, but it's hard to argue with American Society of Cinematographers.
My Non-Existent Vote: Autumn Durald Arkapaw – Sinners
Best Editing
Andy Jurgensen – One Battle After Another
Both Sinners and OBAA won ACE Eddies in their genres, so this is a fascinating showdown. Whoever wins Best Picture will likely win this category, and the odds seem to favor OBAA right now.
My Non-Existent Vote: Michael P. Shawver – Sinners
Francine Maisler – Sinners
Hey, a new category! (The first of two—there will be an Oscar for stunts starting next year.) Maisler seems to be the deserved frontrunner for assembling Sinners's fantastic—and diverse—cast.
My Non-Existent Vote: Maisler
Ludwig Göransson – Sinners
This is one of the easiest calls of the night—Göransson should win his third Oscar for his incredible Sinners score, which is maybe the best score since The Social Network.
My Non-Existent Vote: Göransson
"Golden" – Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park (from KPop Demon Hunters )
Another easy call—nothing stands a chance against KPop Demon Hunters. I like but don't love the song from Sinners. I'd personally go with Nick Cave's end credits song for Train Dreams.
My Non-Existent Vote: "Train Dreams" – Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner (from Train Dreams)
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta – F1
Blockbusters typically do well here—see Dune: Part 2 last year and Top Gun: Maverick two years ago. The latter was directed by Joseph Kosinski, who also directed F1. OBAA or Sinners could be spoilers.
My Non-Existent Vote: Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker – Sinners
Frankenstein's very impressive sets should make it two monster movies in a row in this category after Nosferatu's win last year. OBAA and Sinners were also impressive, albeit less flashy.
My Non-Existent Vote: Deverell and Vieau
Kate Hawley – Frankenstein
This one usually goes to a period piece or a fantasy movie, and Frankenstein is both. The costumes were indeed very good but I'd love it if this category didn't always go to the "fanciest" costumes.
My Non-Existent Vote: Ruth E. Carter – Sinners
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett – Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Avatar movies should be three for three in this category after tonight. And deservingly so—none of the other nominees is even close to Fire and Ash.
My Non-Existent Vote: Letteri, Baneham, Saindon, and Barrett
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey – Frankenstein
This category often gets coupled with the winner of Best Costume Design—again, especially if it's a period piece or fantasy movie. That figures to be the case once again this year with Frankenstein.
My Non-Existent Vote: Hill, Samuel, and Furey
The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
My favorite of the bunch, Two People Exchanging Saliva, seems to be the frontrunner, but I wonder if it's a bit too... odd for Oscar voters. Plus Netflix already has two wins in this category this decade.
My Non-Existent Vote: Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
Like last year, the animated shorts were underwhelming. Butterfly has the weightiest subject matter (the Holocaust) and painterly animation, which could set it up to win. But, again, none were impressive.
My Non-Existent Vote: Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
I never have and will never sit through all the nominees. As usual, I just checked a few prediction articles and odds sites. This seems to be the favorite.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
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