this commercial. How else to explain not one, but two Johnny Depp nominations? Oh, Europeans. Anyway, that's probably about enough of an intro ramble, so on with the picks:
*indicates a film/performance I have not yet seen
bold indicates my pick
Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Mila Kunis - Black Swan
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom*
Logic: The ladies from The Fighter would figure to split the vote, Kunis is just happy to be nominated (although I don't know why, as she basically played her That 70's Show character), and nobody has heard of Weaver (although she could be a wild card). Bonham Carter's appearance in the also-nominated Alice in Wonderland (not terrible, not great) would seem to swing more votes her way).
Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Michael Douglas - Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Logic: Although I'm not sure how an American sports movie managed to garner so many nominations, the HFPA seemed to like The Fighter. This seems to be the best place to give it a statue, although Rush is a definite contender here as well. Douglas is only nominated because he has cancer, all 3'8" of Jeremy Renner has no shot, and Garfield figures to be more of a contender at the Oscars, as I don't see The Social Network having a big night here.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Annette Benning - The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway - Love and Other Drugs*
Angelina Jolie - The Tourist*
Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right
Emma Stone - Easy A*
Logic: Because she's the only one likely to be nominated for an Oscar (Moore will likely be nominated in Supporting). Hathaway and Jolie have to be joke nominations, and Stone might as well not even show up. I actually prefer Moore's performance to Benning's, but she has the whole bride/bridesmaid thing going on. While we're here, I really don't get the fuss about the movie, lead female performances aside -- didactic script, nonexistent directing, and too much melodrama. What am I missing? Oh yeah, the normally reliable Mark Ruffalo's awful character (not performance, necessarily).
Best Performance by An Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Johnny Depp - The Tourist*
Johnny Depp - Alice in Wonderland
Paul Giamatti - Barney's Version*
Jake Gyllenhaal - Love and Other Drugs*
Kevin Spacey - Casino Jack*
Logic: Because he's the most famous and has the showiest performance. I can only figure the other four performances are nominated because they had to have five for the ballot. If you put a gun to my head, I'd say the next most likely is Giamatti, if for some reason Depp's votes are split. It wouldn't be all that big of an upset, really.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Halle Berry - Frankie and Alice*
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole*
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine*
Logic: Because Portman has been and will continue to win everything, and deservedly so. She's startlingly maniacal in Black Swan and delivers the best female performance of the year. Kidman has the next best shot; HFPA always seems to love her. Williams is next in line, Lawrence was great but her movie was too small, and I don't know what the fuck a Frankie and Alice is.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine*
Mark Wahlberg - The Fighter
Logic: Because I see this as being a King's Speech kind of night. Although Firth has got a great shot at the Oscar as well, this is his most sure bet. Franco had the tougher job (carrying an entire film) and will be his main Oscar competition. Eisenberg is not a contender here, and is no better than a dark horse in March, Gosling could surprise (although he might not even get an Oscar nod), and Wahlberg should be content with the nomination.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg - The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler - The King's Speech
Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Logic: Although I don't see The Social Network as the HFPA's cup of tea (get it -- they're foreign!), I don't see them overlooking Sorkin's screenplay, easily the best of the year. Seidler is obviously a contender if King's Speech sweeps, and I think that Nolan actually has an okay shot for a screenplay that features virtually no character development and terrible dialogue. Beaufoy and Boyle are nominated on reputation (Michael Arndt's Toy Story 3 script is a more deserving nominee), and the worst part of Kids was the script, which I don't see as having a shot.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan - Inception
David O. Russell - The Fighter
Logic: Because Fincher's technical craftsmanship has gone unrecognized for too long and should figure to sweep most awards (Oscars included). Hooper is a contender, but a gimp could have successfully directed that cast. Aronofsky and Russell figure to see their movies awarded in different categories (and are further down the chain than Fincher), and I think, while Nolan's got more of a shot than you'd think, he'll bow to Fincher.
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Alice in Wonderland
The Kids Are All Right
Logic: Because... Burlesque?! Really?? Red?! Really?? The ****ing Tourist?! Really?? Alice in Wonderland I can kind of see because of the pedigree and the spectacle, and it's the only other real contender here, but Kids is the only halfway decent film of the bunch, so it should win by default. But no Scott Pilgrim? Get Him to the Greek? The Extra Man (totally underseen this year)? I dunno... Due Date? Seriously awful nominations. Just awful.
Best Motion Picture - Drama
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Logic: Because I see this year as similar to 2007, when Atonement (high-pedigree British film) won the Globe but the Oscar went to No Country for Old Men (career-capper by American auteur). This year, Speech and Network fit the respective bills this year. Again, Fighter and Swan are fine films, but they'll be recognized in other categories. One last note: I have a weird feeling nobody is giving Inception much credit -- I think it could win any category for which it's nominated. Not that it will, but I think it can. It made too much money for it to not win anything. Just sayin'.
Alright, time to open a bottle of wine, fire up the old boob tube, and watch a bunch of Hollywood types get drunk and fete each other (sounds dirtier than it actually is). I love the Globes. Up next, Top 2010 Films, then Oscar noms! Ciao for now.
(Oh, and I don't care about the TV categories, but, uh, go shows I watch!)