That's What I Wanted: My Favorite 2020 Albums

As I was putting this list together, I noticed an unmistakable trend in how my musical taste has evolved over the past few years. Back in 2017, just 3 out of my top 10 albums were by female artists. In 2018, I didn't have my standard top-10 albums list, but I did list my top songs, and 5 out of my top 10 songs that year were by female artists. Then last year, 7 out of my top 10 albums (and 10 of my top 20) were by female artists, including my top 5. Those numbers grew this year: each of my top 8 albums are by female artists, as are 14 out of my top 20. I can't think of a single logical reason for this. I remember my my dad went through a little bit of a Lilith Fair phase in the late '90s, when he was a little bit older than I am right now. Like father, like son? Or maybe it's more obvious than that: women are simply putting out better music right now. I'm not gonna say its NOT that. Whatever the reason, I'm not mad about it. This year has been the latest in a long line of shitty years (at least four in a row by my count; hmmm, wonder why?), but it's been a fantastic year for music, rivaling 2018 for the strongest in recent memory. So without further ado, here are my favorite albums by the women (and men) who made 2020 a memorable year in music.

Honorable Mentions (in alphabetical order):

Beach Slang – The Deadbeat Bang of Heartbreak City

Diet Cig – Do You Wonder About Me?

Drive-By Truckers – The Unraveling/The New OK

Frances Quinlan – Likewise

The Front Bottoms – In Sickness & In Flames

Katie Pruitt – Expectations

The Killers – Imploding the Mirage

Lydia Loveless – Daughter

Phoebe Bridgers – Punisher

Sløtface – Sorry for the late reply

10) Sturgill Simpson – Cuttin' Grass (Vols. 1 and 2)

Best Tracks: "Life Ain't Fair and the World Is Mean," "Long White Line," "Oh Sarah," "Keep It Between the Lines"

I don't know what teenage John would be more surprised to see on this list: such a preponderance of female artists or a bluegrass album. (Technically two bluegrass albums.) Even though teenage John listened to a super macho nü metal diet of Linkin Park, Limp Bizkit, and Papa Roach, he might be more surprised to see the bluegrass. But Sturgill Simpson's two albums of bluegrass versions of his songs is that good. Simpson's country sound has always put an idiosyncratic spin on the conventions of the genre—lyrical content, song structure, instrumentation. (The album title Metamodern Sounds in Country Music is apt.) But on these records, Simpson sounds like an old hand at bluegrass, and his songs sounds like genre standards. Or maybe I just need to check out more bluegrass. (Although I'm not unfamiliar with the genre, as I love this album and its all-time album cover.) Either way, this is just a super fun listen, at once easygoing and invigorating and perfect for any number of moods—and we've all gone through any number of moods here in twenty-twenty. If "musicians touring" and "live music" were things this year, I would have 100% gone to a Sturgill Simpson bluegrass show at (probably) the Van Buren and had a blast. Maybe in 2021, maybe in 2021 (he repeats into oblivion).

9) Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit – Reunions

Best tracks: "Dreamsicle," "Only Children," "Overseas," "Be Afraid"

Jason Isbell's follow-up to 2017's phenomenal The Nashville Sound (my #4 that year) doesn't quite reach the same lofty heights as its predecessor, but that's more a function of Nashville's near perfection than any commentary on the quality of Reunions. Don't get me wrong—this is an outstanding album. The more personal, introspective songwriting here ("Children, "Letting You Go") might be even better than that on Nashville, and the musicianship is top notch, with the production and guitarwork at times reminding me of Dire Straits, one of my all-time favorite bands. (Isbell apparently covered "Brothers In Arms" on his last tour, which, kill me now.) Just listen to the opening riff on "Running with Our Eyes Closed"—it's pure fucking Mark Knopfler. Overall, Reunions has a very timeless feel, whereas Nashville, with its more outward-looking, political themes (which aren't entirely absent here, to be sure) felt more immediate and of its time. I wonder which will age better. I know I haven't tired of going back to Nashville yet; we'll see if Reunions has the same staying power. If only I could hear some of these songs live to further burn them into my mind...

8) Best Coast – Always Tomorrow

Best Tracks: "Different Light," "Everything Has Changed," "For the First Time," "Master of My Own Mind"

Sturgill Simpson has a song called "Turtles All the Way Down" (which is included on Cuttin' Grass!). Well, from here it's women all the way down. As I mentioned above, my top 8 albums of the year are all by female artists, which is pretty remarkable. We'll start with Best Coast, whose last full length—2015's California Nights—also cracked my top-10 that year (the top 5, in fact). Their latest isn't quite the near-masterpiece as their last one, but it's another addictive dose of Bethany Cosentino's cynical-yet-hopeful musings brilliantly bathed in Bobb Bruno's sunshiny, pristine production. (I like alliteration, okay?) This is just a righteous collection of earworms, led by "For the First Time," the most delightfully dreamy song in the band's catalogue, an upbeat, poppy little gem that shines brighter than just about anything else here in 2020. I was looking forward to hearing it live earlier in the year... but, alas, the show was in late March and was the very first (of several) COVID cancellations. Maybe we will get live music back sometime in 2021?

7) Margo Price – That's How Rumors Get Started

Best Tracks: "That's How Rumors Get Started," "Letting Me Down," "Twinkle Twinkle," "Stone Me"

Margo Price first grabbed my attention with a Tom Petty reference on the title track of 2017's All American Made. It's pretty much impossible to make a better first impression than that. I liked that album a good deal, but Rumors is on another level. "Stone Me" was one of the first singles that really grabbed me in 2020 and has some of my favorite lyrics of the year: "Call me a bitch, then call me baby / You don't know me / You don't own me / Yeah, that's no way to stone me." What a statement, and one that all the country goddesses of old who clearly inspired her would have put to music if they could during their era. But I think the best track here might be "Letting Me Down," an absolute jam where Price almost sounds like she's backed by the Heartbreakers themselves—are we sure that's not Campbell and Tench on this one? The rest of the album is more of the same—Price channeling those goddesses (Lynn, Wynette, Raitt, et al.) while her band puts a modern spin on a '70s classic/country rock sound. (Try to tell me you don't hear the Eagles on "Gone to Stay.") Inject this shit directly into my veins, please.

6) HAIM – Women in Music Pt. III

Best Tracks: "Los Angeles," "The Steps," "Gasoline," "Summer Girl"

Next up is the latest from the Haim sisters, who must not have listened to Spotify's CEO advice about musicians releasing music more frequently. (Uh, fuck that guy.) This is only the sisters' third album, after 2013's Days Are Gone (which made my top-10 that year) and 2017's Something to Tell You (which garnered an honorable mention but might crack the list proper if I redid it today). I still remember seeing them at the Crescent Ballroom when they were still getting their feet wet as a live act and now they're nominated for Album of the Year. Crazy. Anyway, Women in Music is another slick, soulful jukebox journey through various eras and styles, like the sisters went to town on a box of old vinyls from Mr. and Mrs. Haim's garage. The Stevie Nicks/Fleetwood Mac comparison is still as apt as ever, but there's also a decided '80s Cyndi Lauper/Wilson Phillips vibe on a lot of tracks, even some Sheryl Crow (100% "I've Been Down"). I generally dig acts that wear their influences on their sleeves, and HAIM fits that to a tee (shirt). But those influences are all gussied up in an ultramodern pop sensibility courtesy of producer Ariel Rechtshaid—who I just learned was once the lead singer of The Hippos, one of the dozens of SoCal ska bands I listened to as a youth. Could the next HAIM record be... a ska-punk album? I would definitely... pick it up.

5) Soccer Mommy – color theory

Best Tracks: "circle the drain," "crawling in my skin," "yellow is the color of her eyes," "lucy"

Like the Jason Isbell and Best Coast releases, my only quibble with the new Soccer Mommy album is that it isn't quite as good as its predecessor. I consider 2018's Clean to be one of the best albums of the previous decade, so it was always going to be tough to follow it up. But Sophie Allison was up to the task and very nearly equaled her landmark debut. Her follow-up is even more intimate than Clean from a lyrical standpoint, but the arrangements and production give color theory almost a removed kind of feel, like Allison is armoring her most personal songwriting yet behind a veneer of studio polish, creating a fascinating discord that just seems to fit 2020. The album also has probably the most 2020 song of 2020, "circle the drain": "Things feel that low sometimes / Even when everything is fine," right into the line that perfectly sums up this godawful year: "Hey, I've been falling apart these days." Haven't we all? The album as a whole isn't the easiest listen on this list, but it's one of the most vital and perhaps the most apt for this year. I can't even imagine what Allison has in store for her next album, but I know that I wait for it as eagerly as just about anything.

4) MisterWives – SUPERBLOOM

Best Tracks: "whywhywhy," "rock bottom," "decide to be happy," "SUPERBLOOM"

Changing tracks a bit, this MisterWives album is the catchiest damn thing I heard all year. Seriously, this album is more jam-packed than a jelly donut and has more bangers than a British breakfast. It's got jangly keys and smooth, sexy horns aplenty, backed by a crisp rhythm section and all topped by Mandy Lee's vivacious, honeyed vocals. I had heard of but not really heard this group before this year (truth be told, I was put off by their name, which is kind of bad), but if someone had told me they're like a poppier Naked and Famous (who also put out a solid album this year), I'd have been all over them. I dug into their other albums and they're just as hooky and infectious as SUPERBLOOM. (Hmmm, that's maybe not the best word choice here in 2020...) But nothing in the band's catalogue—or anything released this year, really—can touch "rock bottom," one of my three favorite songs of the year, in the catchiness category. It starts slow and deliberate before picking up on a propulsive rhythm, adding those keys and horns on the way to an absolutely MONSTER chorus that hits like a disco wrecking ball. Just an unbelievable jam. This album was a much-needed dose of energy and positivity in 2020.

3) Taylor Swift – folklore (and evermore)

Best Tracks: "the 1," "cardigan," "exile," "betty"

If we can revisit the teenage John question for a second, he'd surely be shocked to see the predominant pop star of the past decade or so on this list at all, much less ranked this highly. But Taylor Swift is as unassailable as she is unavoidable, and I long ago gave in and embraced my inner Swiftie, which teenage John would be horrified to learn. In the late '90s/TRL days, pop music (the boy bands, Britney/Christina, et al.) was the enemy. It was just so... manufactured. That's not to say Swift's music isn't manufactured—it most certainly is, and carefully so—but it's also important to point out that she write almost all her own songs, and there's a kind of try-hard earnestness about most of her music that actually really works. The most manufactured-sounding of her music (several regrettable lead singles, pretty much the entire Reputation album) is easily her worst. Which brings us to folklore (and its sister album, evermore, which I haven't listened to as much but still quite dig). It might be the "best" album of her career—the deepest lyrically, the most accomplished from a songcrafting standpoint, the most immaculately produced. The sensational "Teenage Love Triangle" ("cardigan"/"august"/"betty") is a microcosm of her career—at once girlish and mature, manufactured yet earnest. I have no problem saying this, teenage John be damned: Taylor Swift is really fucking good. Excited to see where she goes from here. (Also, what's with all the stylized lowercase song titles this year?)

2) The Beths – Jump Rope Gazers

Best Tracks: "I'm Not Getting Excited," "Dying to Believe," "Jump Rope Gazers," "Out of Sight"

This year was actually a pretty good year for new* discoveries. In the honorable mentions, Beach Slang, Diet Cig, Katie Pruitt, and Sløtface are all excellent new-to-me acts I got into in 2020. (* I'm sure I had heard a song or two from these acts before this year, but this is the first time I actively listened to them.) MisterWives cracked my top 5. But by far the most important new discovery this year was New Zealand indie pop/rock band The Beths. I vaguely recall seeing 2018's Future Me Hates Me on a few year-end lists, and I probably even gave it a listen or two. I'm not sure why it didn't make much of an impression, and their new one wasn't really on my radar this year. I think it might have been the baseball writer Keith Law who put it on my radar in one of his (excellent) periodic newsletters. I checked it out and was immediately hooked by the two opening tracks: the feisty, rollicking "I'm Not Getting Excited" and the joyous, monumentally catchy "Dying to Believe." But the best song of the album—and one of the best of the year—is the slower, more heartfelt title track. (The opening three tracks are as good of a three-track run as you'll hear this year.) "Jump Rope Gazers" didn't grab me right away like the first two tracks, but once it grabbed me, it it grabbed me HARD and refused to let go. In most years, this plaintive ballad would have been my #1 song. The guitarwork is beautiful, and singer Liz Stokes's impassioned, yearning vocals are just heartrending. I don't know how this band can follow up this record, but I can't wait to see them try.

1) Waxahatchee – Saint Cloud

Best Tracks: "Can't Do Much," "Fire," "Lilacs," "War"

Most years, if you're lucky, you find one album that immediately enters your personal pantheon, one that you know you'll revisit again and again and again over the years. It's the first album you'll think about when you think of that year, towering over the rest of the music released that year. No disrespect to the other albums on this list, but for 2020, that album is Waxahatchee's Saint Cloud. It's far and away the best album on this list, and the most important to me. I was familiar with Waxahatchee, Katie Crutchfield's once solo project and now band, prior to this year and had enjoyed several of her songs/albums. So her new album was definitely on my radar (Steven Hyden hyping it up on Twitter didn't hurt either). But I wasn't adequately prepared for just how incredible this album would be. Saint Cloud features Crutchfield's typically confessional songwriting, but is another step forward after 2017's Out In the Storm sound-wise, with a fuller, richer sound that that album and, especially, her more rough-hewn earlier albums. It's a (mostly) sunny, twangy trip through the backcountry, capturing a carefree Americana sound that serves as accompaniment to Crutchfield's wry observations and struggles with sobriety and self-doubt. Her masterful lyrics range from the devastatingly simple ("And the lilacs drank the water / And the lilacs die / And the lilacs drank the water / Marking in the slow, slow, slow passing of time" on "Lilacs" to figuratively clever ("In my loneliness, I'm locked in a room / When you see me, I'm honey on a spoon" on "Can't Do Much"). But the centerpiece of the album (to me anyway) and what might very well be the song of the decade (yes, just one year in) is "Fire." I've already listened to it more this in year than any song (but one) I've listened to total since 2005. It hit me like an emotional sledgehammer when I first heard it one afternoon working in my home office, and I probably listened to it 10-15 times that day, and several times a day for weeks thereafter. From the delicate opening keys to Crutchfield's croon of "That's what I wanted" to the gentle percussion to that transcendent moment a little over a minute in when the whole band kicks in, it's just a perfect fucking song. One of my sincerest regrets of this year was not getting able to see her perform this song live. That's really what I wanted. I hope I get the chance to in 2021.

Bonus: My Top 10 Songs of 2020 (roughly in order):

"Fire" – Waxahatchee

"Jump Rope Gazers" – The Beths

"rock bottom" – MisterWives

"Smokestack" – Alkaline Trio

"circle the drain" – Soccer Mommy

"For the First Time" – Best Coast

"Letting Me Down" – Margo Price

"Armageddon's Back in Town" – Drive-By Truckers

"Be Afraid" – Jason Isbell and The 400 Unit

"Kyoto" – Phoebe Bridgers

Here's a link if you want to check out a playlist of all my favorite songs of the year.

That's all for this year. As always, thanks for reading (if anyone is reading). I know 2021 will be a better year overall, even though I tend to doubt it'll be a better year for music. I guess we'll see!

Not Getting My Hopes Up: 2020 Oscars Predictions

A year hasn't been long enough to get rid of the stink of Green Book's win last year—a win that both damaged the Academy's (already shaky) credibility as well as the legacy of the film itself. Green Book—not actually a terrible film!—will now go down with Crash—also not actually a terrible film!—as one of the worst Best Picture winners in recent history. Now, whenever it is mentioned among cinephiles and Oscar enthusiasts, it'll be greeted with teeth-gnashing and derision—when it could have just been remembered as a well-intentioned, if ham-handed, minor box office hit like, I dunno, Little Miss Sunshine or something. And the Academy really shot themselves in the foot by selecting it for the top prize, undoing almost all of the progress and good will that came from the Moonlight over La La Land upset in 2016. If there had been a stronger top challenger than Roma—an outstanding film, but not exactly a cultural touchstone—the Oscars might've been relegated to the same out-of-touch irrelevancy as the Grammys. I don't think there's any danger of that with this year's Best Picture field, but last year's ceremony really underscored just how frustratingly unpredictable the Academy is. It is ever diversifying—growing more multicultural, younger, and female than it has been in the past—but there's still a sizable old (white male) guard that still has the muscle to put a film like Green Book over the top. All of which is to say that I have absolutely no idea how things will play out in the non-acting categories on Sunday. The field is that wide open. The favorites in acting categories all seem to be locked in, although I think there will be one Olivia Colman–esque upset this year. So, let's get to the predictions already, starting as the ceremony itself usually does, with the supporting performances. (Note: I reserve the right to change picks before the ceremony starts!)

Gold = predicted winner

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Golden Globe, BAFTA, SAG—Laura Dern has won all the major precursors and seems overwhelmingly likely to break through with her first Oscar win (in three tries). She's typically great in Marriage Story, even if she wouldn't get my vote. Interesting note: Dern is on the Academy Board of Governors, so expect a raucous round of applause when she wins. In the event of a massive upset, keep an eye on first-time nominee Scarlett Johannson, who people seem to like in the mawkish Jojo Rabbit. But Dern and ScarJo and the rest would all be behind Florence Pugh on my ballot. She's sensational in Little Women.

My Non-Existent Vote: Pugh

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

We'll very likely have another first-time winner here in Brad Pitt, who plays a handsome man in the film industry in QT's Hollywood fairytale. He gave a better performance in another film (Ad Astra), doesn't give the best performance in his movie (that would be Leo), and at least one other nominee here was better in their film (Pacino), but no one will care about any of those things on Sunday when he takes the podium, statue in hand. (For the record, he'll be a very worthy winner.) This category seems the least likely for an upset, but Pesci is probably the best longshot.

My Non-Existent Vote: Pacino

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Renée Zellweger – Judy

Renée Zellweger is almost certain to win her second Oscar in a lackluster field. Best Actress is almost always stronger than Best Actor, but the opposite is true this year. We've got two impressions of real-world figures (Zellweger and Theron), one rote biopic portrayal of a historical figure (Erivo), and one beloved literary character (Ronan). There's only one original character—Johansson, who's actually quite good. (Compare that to three original characters for the men, and four in this category last year.) That's not to say the other performances aren't good—they're all solid, and Ronan is very good—but the degree of difficulty is lowered when you have to portray someone who really existed or has been portrayed in other films. This category is just behind Supporting Actor as least likely for an upset, but I think it'd be Erivo if anyone.

My Non-Existent Vote: Ronan

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

This field was a joke last year, so it's only fitting that, this year, Joaquin Phoenix will be the second man to win an Oscar for playing the Joker. Rather than channeling the legend himself, Heath Ledger (R.I.P., always), he instead channeled Bruce Wayne himself and went full Bale—massive weight loss, fanatical Method-ism. It's not the best performance of the year or even of his career, but it's certainly memorable and I don't really have a problem with him winning. That said, this is the category that has the most upset potential, given the exhausting discourse around Phoenix's film. Banderas or, especially, Driver could pull off the shocker.

My Non-Existent Vote: Banderas

Best Adapted Screenplay

Greta Gerwig – Little Women
Anthony McCarten – The Two Popes
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver – Joker
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
Steven Zaillian – The Irishman

This is where things start to get interesting, as there's no clear-cut frontrunner like in the acting categories. I don't think it'll be The Two Popes (too minor), The Irishman (too unfocused), or Joker (too divisive), so I think it'll come down to Little Women and Jojo Rabbit. There was a lot of vitriol in the Twittersphere when Gerwig (among others) missed out on a Best Director nomination, which makes me think she has a chance here—and, like Jojo Rabbit, this might be the voters' only chance to award the film. But I suspect that the cutesy-ness and Holocaust connections of Jojo Rabbit will (undeservedly) win it for Taika Waititi. Waititi is incredibly likable, but I don't love his writing for the most part. But if this is the only major award the film wins, I'll consider it a victory.

My Non-Existent Vote: Gerwig

Best Original Screenplay

Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Rian Johnson – Knives Out
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns – 1917
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The other writing category is even more wide-open—I could see Baumbach, Bong, or QT winning. (Johnson's win was the nomination, and 1917 barely needed a script—only a slight exaggeration.) OUATIH seems to have a lot of support—Hollywood loves movies about the movies, etc.—but I'm having a hard time seeing it winning anything substantial apart from Supporting Actor. Baumbach was the nominal frontrunner at one point for Marriage Story, but he doesn't seem to have ton of arduous support... unlike Bong Joon-ho, who I think—and hope—wins it here. He won the WGA award, and there seems to be a groundswell of support for Parasite of late. Will it be enough to win the big prize? I have my doubts, but it seems like a fairly safe pick here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Bong

Best Director

Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Sam Mendes – 1917
Todd Phillips – Joker
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Like Best Picture very well could, this one should come down to two films—Parasite and 1917. Phillips is in the "nomination was the win" category, Scorsese is nothing more than a sentimental favorite, and QT is a well-regarded also-ran. Although I'd love to see Bong win here, it's hard to make a case for him based on anything other than gut and admiration for his film. Other than something called a "Palme D'or"—which has basically zero predictive value for the Oscars—he hasn't won a single precursor. Meanwhile, Mendes has the big three (Golden Globe, BAFTA, and DGA), and the list of directors who have lost the Oscar after winning those three is minuscule. Plus the optics are clearly in Mendes's favor—Parasite is a foreign-language film and 1917 is a war spectacle. I don't think Bong can overcome these major hurdles, meaning I think Sam Mendes will win him a second Best Director Oscar. An upset definitely can't be counted out, though—especially given Picture/Director splits have become more common of late.

My Non-Existent Vote: Bong

Best Picture

1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

There seems to be two main contenders here and two dark horses. Off the bat, I think we can wave goodbye to Ford v Ferrari (which I loved but is a bit out of its depth in this race), The Irishman (should've been a miniseries and feels like it), Joker (the Academy isn't ready for a comic book movie to win Best Picture), Little Women (a Very Fine Picture that never had a chance here), and Marriage Story (an actors/writers movie, not a Best Picture winner). The potential spoilers are Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (which seemed like the frontrunner at one point) and Jojo Rabbit (please god no that would be worse than Green Book). UOATIH could benefit from a some kind of strange split at the top and/or some funkiness with the preferential balloting system—its support doesn't seem particularly deep, but it could be very broad. A Jojo Rabbit win would be the opposite—maybe it lands at the top of an unexpected number of ballots? I fervently hope not, but I could maybe see it. But the most likely scenario is a 1917/Parasite showdown, which seems weird. A WWI epic (not exactly the most timely material) and a foreign-language dark comedy/thriller (whose material is incredibly timely). Strange bedfellows, indeed. A 1917 win would largely be a shrug from the Academy—it's a well-made film but has no societal significance, and war epics are a dime a dozen in Oscars history. It wouldn't be backtracking like Green Book was—it'd be more like when The Artist won. Boring and meaningless. But if Parasite were to pull off the upset... man, what a statement. The first foreign-language film to win Best Picture, and a genuine masterpiece to boot. But when it comes down to it, I think enough Academy voters will make the easy choice and mark down 1917 as the winner here. Although Film Twitter might very well melt down, I don't think there will be as much teeth-gnashing in general as when Green Book won last year. I'm hoping for the best, but am preparing for meh. AMPAS has fooled me too many times to get my hopes up—I'm still stinging from the The King's Speech win over The Social Network. But as long as Jojo fucking Rabbit doesn't win, I'll be happy. I hope that's not too much to ask.

My Non-Existent Vote: Parasite

Now for the rest of the categories, lightning-round style.

Best International Feature Film

Parasite (South  Korea) – Bong Joon-ho

I'll just leave the same text as last year: Duh—if you're the only foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture, you're gonna win this category. One of the easier calls of the night.

My Non-Existent Vote: Parasite

Best Animated Film 

Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen

It seems like a bad idea to bet against Pixar and the Toy Story franchise in general, but do note that Klaus won the Annie Award this year.

My Non-Existent Vote: Toy Story 4 (the only one I've seen, but it was great)

Best Documentary Feature

American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert

As usual, I haven't seen any of the nominees, so I'm flying blind here. Just not a documentary person. *shrug ASCII* This one seems to be the consensus winner among prognosticators.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Short

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva

Leaving the text from last year again: Another complete guess. You would have to pay me so much money to sit through not one but five documentaries.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Animated Short

Hair Love – Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson

The two frontunners in an underwhelming field—this and Pixar's Kitbull—are both cutesy, but this one is less so and is also less clichéd. But like I said above, it's usually a bad idea to bet against Pixar.

My Non-Existent Vote: Memorable – Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre

Best Live Action Short

The Neighbors' Window – Marshall Curry

This is a really tough call—all the nominees were varying degrees of good (although this one was my least favorite). Going with the only English-language nominee sounds about right after last year.

My Non-Existent Vote: Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon

Best Score

Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker

This wasn't a strong category, but Guðnadóttir stands out for a number of reasons—she's the only female nominee, the only first-time nominee, and her score is sonically quite different from the rest.

My Non-Existent Vote: Guðnadóttir

Best Original Song

"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" – Elton John and Bernie Taupin (from Rocketman)

Not a strong field overall, especially compared to last year. John and Taupin seem like a pretty safe bet, especially after their touching Golden Globes acceptance speech. Harriet is a potential spoiler.

My Non-Existent Vote: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again"

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins – 1917

To paraphrase another film Deakins shot: "Lock it in, dude." One of the easiest calls of the night, and a deserved second statue for Deakins. The Lighthouse and OUATIH were both outstanding, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Deakins

Best Editing

Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker – Ford v Ferrari

There's not an obvious winner here, but "action" films sometimes do well here, so I'm going with the racing movie. ACE Eddie Award winners Parasite or Jojo Rabbit are also strong possibilities.

My Non-Existent Vote: Thelma Schoonmaker – The Irishman

Best Production Design

Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917 could easily win, but I have a feeling AMPAS will vote for a nostalgic recreation of their own backyard. There wasn't a movie where the sets were more important last year than Parasite, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Lee Ha-jun and Cho Won-woo – Parasite

Best Costume Design

Arianne Phillips – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I almost went with the standard period piece in Little Women, but was there a more indelible costume design last year than Brad Pitt's Hawaiian shirt in OUATIH? Not to mention Leo's Lancer wear.

My Non-Existent Vote: Phillips

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker – Bombshell

This is apparently the first year five films will be nominated. Expect a win for Bombshell's Fox News haircuts, but Joker or Judy could upset.

My Non-Existent Vote: Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou – Joker

Best Sound Mixing

Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson – 1917

If there's a Best Picture–nominated war movie, it's almost assuredly going to win. Ford v Ferrari has an extremely slight chance at an upset, but 1917 is a monumental favorite in both categories.

My Non-Existent Vote: Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow – Ford v Ferrari

Best Sound Editing

Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate – 1917

See above.

My Non-Existent Vote: Donald Sylvester – Ford v Ferrari

Best Visual Effects

Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy – 1917

1917 is going to win a fuckton of technical categories, including this one. I just hope that Oscar voters will feel the technical awards are enough and go with Parasite for Best Picture.

My Non-Existent Vote: Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy – Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

I did terribly last year—15/24, one of my worst performances ever. I'm feeling much more confident this year—except in the top two categories, Director and Picture. Hoping for Parasite, going with 1917, and praying it isn't Jojo Rabbit. I'd take an Oscar pool win as well, but that almost never happens... maybe twice ever? Looking forward to the ceremony, as ever—I almost wish I knew how to quit it. But I never will. Unless Jojo Rabbit wins.

Decade's Endgame: My 2019 Fake Oscars

When I look back at the films of the final year of the 2010s, I'm not quite sure what I'll think yet—what nascent trends will have become clear in hindsight, what themes will have crystallized, what the endgame of the year actually is. Last year, genre films—specifically, horror films—dominated my thinking and these fake awards. There's no such big-picture takeaway for 2019, at least not yet. Just look at my top-10 above—foreign films by major directors, action blockbusters, several new films from an up-and-coming wave of young(ish) auteurs... oh yeah, and the latest (and perhaps penultimate) Tarantino. It's kind of a grab bag. Time and perspective will eventually reveal what 2019 was really *about*, cinematically speaking. Until then, let's dive into my usual fake awards, starting, as always, with the year's best supporting performances.

Gold = winner
^ = nominated for a real Oscar

Best Supporting Actress
Cho Yeo-jeong – Parasite
Laura Dern – Marriage Story^
Lee Jung-eun – Parasite
Florence Pugh – Little Women^
Cecilia Roth – Pain and Glory

I wasn't overly impressed with the actual Oscar field, especially considering that the Academy ignored the sensational (and SAG-winning!) cast of Parasite. Scarlett Johansson belongs nowhere near any awards ceremony for her work in Jojo Rabbit, and Kathy Bates is as good as she usually is in Richard Jewell, but she really only had one notable scene. Margot Robbie did all she could with the weak material of Bombshell, but her character was too nonsensical to merit a nomination. I did include two Oscar nominees in my field, however, so let's start with the one who is going to (in all likelihood) win her first Oscar on Sunday.

• I'm a big fan of hers (Blue Velvet! Ellie Sattler! Admiral Holdo!), but I only reluctantly included Dern here. It just wasn't a strong year for female supporting performances overall. Don't get me wrong—she was great in Marriage Story, threading the needle between delightfully evil and smugly compassionate—but the role was rather one-note (not her fault, I know). I just don't think we'll look back on her win and see it in the same class as the revelatory work of, say, Regina King last year or Lupita Nyong'o in 2013.
• Of the pair of actual Oscar nominees here, I found Pugh's to be the stronger performance. I had never read nor seen any previous adaptations of Little Women, but her Amy March was one of the true delights of the film. Pugh's portrayal of her transformation from a haughty, naive teenager to a bold, brash young woman is an announcement of the next major star—this Oscar nomination will not be her last.
• My final three nominees are all from non-English films. Let's start with Roth, who plays an actress (of course) and long-time friend to Antonio Banderas's character in Pedro Almodóvar's Pain and Glory. She operates on the fringes of the film for most of its run time, but she takes center stage during the third act as she becomes a caretaker of sorts for Banderas's Almodóvar stand-in. Her scenes in doctor's offices and at Banderas's side is lovely, pained, empathetic work. Both her and the film remind me that I need to see more of Almodóvar's work—starting with All About My Mother.
• That brings us to the two Parasite women (and Park So-dam wasn't far behind them). The film turns around Lee's housekeeper character and what she reveals about halfway through (that's as spoiler-y as I'll get), and the change her performance undergoes in just a matter of minutes is breathtaking. One of Parasite's many themes is what you'll do to get a better life for your family, and Lee's transformation when what little shred of that security is ripped away will stay with you long after the credits roll.
• Finally, we have Cho as the matriarch of the upper-class Park family. She epitomizes the good-intentioned, yet blissfully ignorant worldview of those who have forgotten—or have never known—what it's like to struggle. But her performance is an intrinsically sympathetic one, as her love for her children is communicated in every line, every action—even as her kind of daft insensitivity does harm to those beneath her. She's just marvelous in this.

I thought long and hard about both Parasite women—especially Cho—but in the end, Florence Pugh gets the win here. Hers is the meatiest role, just shy of a lead. She'll be clapping for Dern in the audience on Oscar Sunday, but she almost certainly has a win in her future.

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse

Asier Exteandia – Pain and Glory

Al Pacino – The Irishman^

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^

Song Kang-ho – Parasite

The only real issue I had with the actual Oscar field is Hopkins over Song. Hopkins is... fine as one pope, but there's nothing remotely awards-worthy about his work. His nomination was just a perfunctory tip of the cap to a respected veteran. I feel similarly about Hanks's nomination, although his performance was closer to awards-worthy (I just typically don't go for performances playing real-life figures). Of the two Irishmen to get the AMPAS nod, I preferred Pacino's bombast to Pesci's more subtle work. The latter was quite good, but just missed the cut here. So let's start my nominees with his costar.

• Pacino doesn't show up until nearly an hour into The Irishman, but once he does he completely takes over the film. He gives a vintage Pacino performance, part John Milton and part Tony D'Amato (for my money the last truly great Pacino performance until now). His Jimmy Hoffa is ticking time bomb of ego, altruism, weariness, and a little evil. It's outstanding work, and it'll be good to have him a part of the Oscar festivities for the first time in 27(!) years.
• It hasn't been nearly as long for Pitt, who has three nominations and one win as a producer (for 12 Years a Slave) in recent years, but he hasn't been nominated as an actor since 2012 (for Moneyball) and he's never won. But he's on track to break through for his performance as Cliff Booth, a "kinda pretty" stuntman and Rick Dalton's right-hand man. The part perfectly plays off Pitt's good looks and charisma (that shirtless scene though), and he has several of the movies best moments (the movie ranch scene and the acid trip finale). Pacino would get my vote over him, but Pitt's statue will be well deserved.
• Dafoe is another guy with several nominations to his name (four) but zero statues. He didn't make the actual Oscar field for his totally berserk, committed work in The Lighthouse, but I couldn't leave him out of my field here in spite of not being sure if I "got" the movie or not. (It probably needs a repeat viewing.) I haven't been able to shake the image of a scraggly bearded, wild-eyed, pipe-chewing Dafoe singing and dancing and farting up a storm in stark black and white. The best performances are works of pure creation, and Dafoe channeled this raving mad wickman from the depths of his soul.
• If I was somewhat familiar with Cecilia Roth from previous Almodóvar films, I had not heard of Spanish actor Exteandia until I saw Pain and Glory. His very first scene is one of the most nonchalant depictions of heroin use I can remember seeing, and Exteandia gives his tortured artist character far more heart than the role usually has. One of the highlights of the film is his one-man show monologue of material written by Banderas's character—a performance that Banderas had previously given him notes on. Like much of the film, it's slyly—and effectively—meta. I hope to see more of him in future Almodóvar films.
• That leaves us with the man whose Oscar nomination Hopkins so egregiously stole—Song, one of South Korea's finest actors and long a staple of Bong Joon-ho's stable. I think I first saw him in The Host, and he's also impressed in films like Memories of Murder, The Good, the Bad, the Weird, Thirst, Snowpiercer, etc. If you've seen a Korean movie in the past 20-odd years, you've probably seen him. Parasite is one of his finest performances and his coming-out party to Western audiences. His earnest, warm, tortured, funny, deeply believable performance as the Kim family patriarch is one of the pillars that holds up the (spoilers) best film of the year. It takes an actor of incredible skill and compassion to make the final, fatal act of the film work, and Song pulls it off sublimely.

This came down to Pacino and Song (with Pitt not terribly far behind). As much as I loved Pacino and his ice cream sundaes, Song Kang-ho as the would-be conscience of Parasite was just undeniable. That scene in the gym/shelter... just wow. The Academy missed an incredible chance to elevate world cinema when they failed to nominate him.

Best Actress

Aisling Franciosi – The Nightingale

Elisabeth Moss – Her Smell

Lupita Nyong'o – Us
Florence Pugh – Midsommar

Charlize Theron – Long Shot

The Best Actress field in the real Oscars is about as predictable as it gets. Well-liked star playing a beloved legend? Up-and-comer playing a civil rights icon? Zellwegger and Erivo practically had their nominations in the bag when they signed the contract. Ditto Saoirse Ronan for playing one of the Little Women (note: she was fantastic and was the sixth name in my field) and ScarJo in the Holocaust-adjacent movie. Strange that Theron hadn't been nominated since 2006 (for something called North Country?) but a nomination for her Megyn Kelly impression was about as expected as they come. (She's good, but, again, real-world figure and the screenplay is a mess as well.) I much prefer her work in an entirely different movie, so let's start my field there.

• Rom-coms aren't usually my jam, especially the more clichéd examples of the genre, but when you cast one of the best actresses in the world and give her a role that allows her to be powerful yet vulnerable, lets her display her considerable comedic chops, and makes the audience believe someone so preternaturally beautiful would fall for Seth Rogen, then I'm on board. Such was the case for Theron in Long Shot, one of the most pleasant surprises of the year for me. I caught it well after it came out in the dollar theater and was wholly won over by its charm and wit (although its handling of politics caused a bit of eye rolling). Theron's Secretary of State character should enter the pantheon of great romantic comedy leads, up there with the Ryans, Roberts, and Hunters of the world.
• The rest of my field are all much more serious roles, including a couple from horror films. Let's move onto the one who was probably closest to a real-life nomination, Nyong'o in Jordan Peele's Us. Her film wasn't able to overcome an early release date and the horror genre to snag her a nomination, but it's the Academy's loss, as her (kind of spoiler-y, but the movie has been out for almost a year) dual performance as a young mother and something... else is one of the best of the year. It's both physically impressive (using two entirely different sets of mannerisms, tics, and movements) and emotionally expressive, running the gamut from utter terror to unrepentant savagery. Nyong'o doesn't seem to work much, but I'm eagerly anticipating whatever she does next.
• The other performance from a horror film in my field is a familiar name: Pugh in Ari Aster's Hereditary follow-up, Midsommar. She does more and better acting in the first 10 minutes of her film than most actresses do in entire movies. The entire opening sequence of Midsommar is a series of emails, text messages, and phone calls, but Pugh imbues everything with an almost unbearable sense of (at first) dread and (then) soul-destroying pain. Her character skirts close to the final girl stereotype for much of the middle of the film, but it turns into something decidedly different by the end, and Pugh knows just when—and how—to flip the switch from horrified to complicit. She's every bit as good in this as Little Women.
• Franciosi's film is also a follow-up to a highly-regarded recent horror film, Jennifer Kent's The Babadook. The Nightengale, a revenge thriller set on Tasmania in the early 19th century, isn't a horror movie, but it's so dark and brutal that it's at least horror-adjacent. The first 15-20 minutes of this are even harder to watch than the opening of Midsommar—it's also very much a "read the Wikipedia summary" kind of movie for the squeamish. But being squeamish would mean missing Franciosi's performance, which balances a remarkable fierceness with a kind of resigned composure in the face of unimaginable pain and misery. She's so good that it makes one wonder how the creators of Game of Thrones couldn't have found a meatier role for her than the rather minor (in terms of screen time) character of Lyanna Stark.
• Finally, we have Moss, whom I've absolutely loved in things like Top of the Lake but have somehow never managed to see her two most well-known roles (Mad Men and The Handmaid's Tale). But if she's anywhere near as good—as captivating, as frenetic, as genius—as she is in Her Smell, I need to rectify that fast. I firmly believe (as mentioned above) that the best acting means creating a character and living for a while in their skin, and Moss's Becky Something—a drug-addled punk singer and troubled child and mother both—exemplifies both aspects. In the first of the five vignettes that make up the film, Moss erects the familiar archetype, then spends the next four tearing it down. By the end of the film, you're not only surprised to realize you forgot you were watching an actress act, but are somehow sure that you used to have a Becky Something CD in college. Moss is just revelatory in this.

All of which is to say that, in a loaded category, Elisabeth Moss is my pick for Best Actress of the year. (Nyong'o and Pugh, in that order, were somewhat close behind.) I'm mystified that she didn't garner more awards consideration—just an Independent Spirit Award nomination. There is no such miscarriage of justice here.

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory^
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^

Adam Driver – Marriage Story^
Brad Pitt – Ad Astra

Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

Unlike last year, I don't have a ton of complaints about the Oscar Best Actor field. As you can see, my list had three nominees in common, and presumptive winner Joaquin Phoenix was the sixth name on my list (it came down to him and Driver). I also would up liking Jonathan Pryce's performance as one pope a lot more than I thought I would (and a lot more than Hopkins). So a pretty solid field overall, which hasn't been the case in recent years in this category. (I blame Eddie Redmayne.) Let's start my slightly different field with the two new names.

• Pitt, of course, isn't a "new" name in the overall field, as he appeared in the Best Supporting Actor category above (matching Florence Pugh's dual nominations). His performance in the pensive and sometimes ponderous Ad Astra is less reliant on his innate handsomeness and easy charm and more on his prototypical masculinity. The film's uses space travel as a metaphor for the difficulty of reaching emotionally distant men—wives to husbands, sons to fathers—and you can't get a much better specimen of the archetypal man than Pitt. (Tommy Lee Jones as his father is also damn good casting.) Pitt spends 90% of the film tightly suppressing his emotions (even his heart rate), but his inner turmoil roils constantly behind his eyes. It's a spare performance, but it perfectly belies the somewhat unsubtle material of the script.
• Everyone knows Sandler can be a good actor when he chooses to be (Punch-Drunk Love, The Meyerowitz Stories, Spanglish—my personal favorite), but he might have turned in the best performance of his career in Uncut Gems as compulsive gambler and adulterer Howard Ratner. Ratner is a man who doesn't know when—or how—to stop, and the role perfectly channels Sandler's aptitude for extremes. He operates on a high emotional register at all times—say, about a 7/10—but it's punctuated by scene after scene where he hits 9 or 10. But the emotions are always different—exasperation, lust, rage, anguish, elation. And Sandler nails every scene. If he keeps taking roles like this every now and then between his paycheck movies, it's a matter of when, not if, he gets his first Oscar nomination.
• Of the three real Oscar nominees, I was somewhat displeased with seeing Driver wind up as one of my top five performances of the year. I've never been a huge fan and am sort of exhausted by the conversation that tends to surround him. But he was indisputably great in Marriage Story, eloquently expressing the subtle sadnesses and stark incredulities of divorce between the "big" scenes of Twitter meme fame. He's equally adept at dealing with soon-to-be ex-in-laws and divorce attorneys as he is punching holes in walls and cutting his hand open. And the scene of him breaking down while reading the letter at the end is among the very best of the year. I'm slowly coming around to Adam Driver, dramatic actor, although I've liked him best in comedic roles so far for the most part (Logan Lucky, The Dead Don't Die.) Adam Driver, sex symbol, still might be a bridge too far, though...
• Banderas's bona fides as a sex symbol, however, are unimpeachable. But, at least in the US, he's never exactly been known as a stellar dramatic actor—his Oscar nomination for Pain and Glory is his first. But it's richly deserved and hopefully is the beginning of a late-career resurgence. Speaking plainly, however, it's unlikely he'll ever top the work he did as Almodóvar stand-in Salvador Mallo. It's a melancholy, wistful performance, as his director character pines for lost loves and his recently deceased mother, struggles with substance abuse and writer's block, and, of course, faces his own mortality. It's a juicy role, but Banderas wisely avoids pyrotechnics in favor of an intense internality, unshowy but highly refined. He won't win the Oscar this weekend, but he'd be a very worthy winner.
• DiCaprio is the only nominee both here and in the real field with an Oscar already in hand (for The Revenant, which might not even be one of his five best performances). He's a megastar and a mega-talent, but in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, he plays an actor who is neither—Rick Dalton, a one-time TV star whose film career has floundered. He's an alcoholic sad sack who has been reduced to playing guest star "heavies" to boost the careers of a new generation of Rick Daltons while his own star fades. It's a great part for Leo, even if there are long stretches of the film where he's not given a ton to do. But his scenes on the set of Lancer are some of the best work of the year—his meltdown in his trailer and, especially, his two scenes opposite the wonderful Julia Butters. His in-character villainous monologue—and the resulting comedown from an acting high—is perhaps my favorite scene of the year and as good as anything Leo has ever done.

There were two main contenders above the rest here—Banderas and Sandler. And their performances are about as different as can be. I almost gave the nod to Sandler, whose film I liked just a hair more, but Antonio Banderas was just a bit better in his film. He takes the fake statue in a tough field.

Best Score

Tyler Bates and Joel J. Richard – John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders – Ford v Ferrari
Daniel Lopatin – Uncut Gems
Max Richter and Lorne Balfe – Ad Astra
Marcelo Zarvos – Dark Waters

The actual Oscar field is kind of boring this year, after a strong field the previous year (other than the Mary Poppins sequel). I quite enjoyed both Little Women and 1917, but I don't remember a thing about the music in either one. (Sprightly orchestral arrangements and a mix of quiet and bombast, respectively, if I had to guess.) I do remember the music in Marriage Story, but I found it to be more cloying than anything. And John Williams could fart into a didgeridoo and get a nomination. I did like the Joker score, however—it made my shortlist. But it's rather samey and kind of overbearing—it's not something that really stands alone as its own piece of music, which is one of my main qualifications in this category. My nominees all do work well outside of the context of their movies, though.

• This is now the third year I've included Best Score in my fake Oscars, and this is the second time I've nominated a score by Beltrami—he was also nominated in 2017 for his Logan score (also a James Mangold film). His score with sometimes-collaborator Sanders is more like a prog rock record than a film score at times—wailing guitars, heavy keys, relentless drums. It's a perfect fit for the film—driving when it needs to be (often), subdued when it should be, and epic at times. Beltrami works a ton, but my interest is piqued whenever I see his name attached to a movie.
• Lopatin is another repeat nominee—he also made that 2017 field for his Good Time score under his Oneohtrix Point Never recording moniker. His second Safdies score is a much more leisurely and ambient affair, despite Uncut Gems being even *more* of a cinematic heart attack than even the jittery Good Times. It's spacey tones and robotic rhythms help the film establish its surprisingly astronomical scope, and it's just urgent enough to never let the audience or characters truly relax. Can't wait to see what he and the Safdies have in store next.
• I've always liked Bates's work on movies for directors like Zack Snyder (especially 300 and Watchmen), Neil Marshall, Rob Zombie, and James Gunn. But his work with Richard on the John Wick movies is some of his best work. Scores in action movies like these have to keep up the atmosphere between fights and accentuate them once they start, and Bates's and Richard's moody, industrial-tinged pieces work just as well whether Keanu is kicking ass or just on his way to kick ass—or if you're grading papers or writing blog posts, as I have found.
• I hadn't heard of Zarvos before Dark Waters, and looking at his Wikipedia page, it's not hard to see why—his filmography is mostly little-seen indie films and random vehicles for mid-tier stars. But his foreboding, minimalist work on Todd Haynes's legal drama was perfectly suited to the material, and even more perfectly suited to write to. It's palpable but unobtrusive, all forlorn piano and skittering rhythms.  I hope Zarvos gets some more prominent work in the future.
• Ad Astra had major contributions from two composers: Richter and Balfe (with a single composition from Nils Frahm). Richter's and Balfe's elegant, atmospheric compositions instill each scene with the necessary sense of loneliness, longing, dread, tranquility, or grandeur, as needed. It also, strangely, reminds me at times of a personal favorite score—Vince DiCola's Transformers: The Movie score from the animated 1986 movie. (It's seriously a banger.) The highlight is the spare, sprawling "Tuesday (Voiceless)" from Richter that almost sounds like a stretched-out Philip Glass piece—it feels like you're floating on a cosmic current. It's beautiful.

This was a tough category to pick—I've listened to all of these a ton while writing much of this blog post (as well as grading). The two best, I think, are the Ford v Ferrari and Ad Astra scores. Of those two, the one that had the biggest impact on me in the theater was the one by Max Richter and Lorne Balfe, so they earn the win here.

Best Screenplay

Pedro Almodóvar – Pain and Glory

Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won – Parasite^

Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, and Benny Safdie – Uncut Gems

Rian Johnson – Knives Out^

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^

I've done separate categories for Original and Adapted screenplays in the past, but this year the options for Adapted were so weak that I opted to skip it and just do one screenplay category. Greta Gerwig's Little Women screenplay was probably the best, and I'll be rooting for it on Oscar night. Steven Zaillian's The Irishman script was certainly the longest. It had some great sequences and an enviable structure, but I found it too unfocused overall. The Two Popes was certainly a script AMPAS would nominate—not a ton else to say other than that. And the less said about the Joker and Jojo Rabbit scripts, the better (for now—I'll talk about them in my usual Oscar predictions). Of the two Original Screenplay nominees that missed the boat here, Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story just missed the cut (phenomenal dialogue doesn't really say much new) and 1917 barely needed a script, so... Let's start with the real Oscar nominees, as I have mostly been doing for each category.

• Johnson came close to an Oscar nomination for Looper and The Last Jedi, and was probably deserving both times. He finally broke through this year with Knives Out, which is maybe just a note too clever at times, but has some of the year's best zingers and creates a multitude of memorable characters—especially Benoit Blanc, whom it sounds like we'll be seeing more of. Johnson was the fifth nominee over a host of other worthy contenders, including Midsommar, Under the Silver Lake, and Booksmart.
• Speaking of memorable characters, Tarantino has created a slew of them in his day, and OUATIH gave us fading TV star Rick Dalton and his stuntman (and possible wife murderer) Cliff Booth, who are among his best yet. His Dalton scenes are rife with multilayered dialogue, his Booth scenes are alternately hilarious and intense, and their few scenes together have a warm familiarity that's as much due to the writing as the performances. And people are still deconstructing the darkly comic, nightmarish ending to his Hollywood fairytale—a surefire sign of a great ending. He probably won't win on Sunday (and he wouldn't get my vote, as we'll see below), but he's pulled off upsets in this category before (see: Django Unchained).
• The script I'll be rooting for most on Sunday is Bong and Han's for Parasite, one of the smartest, funniest, most vital movies from any country in several years. It's just an absolute masterwork—everything from the sets to the cinematography to the performances to the direction—but it all starts with the script. It's just so... metaphorical. (ZING!) But seriously, the subject matter couldn't be timelier, the central conceit about semi/hidden basements is genius, the pacing is *perfect*, and even the title is a masterstroke—who/what does "parasite" refer to? But my favorite part about the Parasite script might be how it has sympathy for both the Kim and Park families—which makes the ending all that much more of an emotional gut-punch. It'll have to overcome both Baumbach/Tarantino and the language barrier to win this award, but it's more than deserving.
• That brings us to the two "new" nominees, both of which were touted as possible nominees—although Almodóvar was probably closer than the Safdies. That 1917 was nominated over his heartfelt, nostalgic, surprisingly complex work is one of the Academy's biggest gaffes this year. (1917 is fine, but its script isn't exactly a strong point.) It's even more surprising because Pain and Glory is very much an "insider" movie—Banderas plays a writer/director trying to come to terms with his life and career. If it was in English, it'd be a surefire nominee in all the major categories. It's also got the most note-perfect ending of the year, tying together the various thematic/plot threads in the loveliest of bows. I adored this movie.
• "Adore" isn't a word I'd use to describe Uncut Gems, but I liked it every bit as much as Pain and Glory—and a lot better than the Safdies' previous movie, Good Times. (And I liked Good Times quite a bit.) But Uncut Gems was a major leap forward for the brotherly duo. Good Times operated on a much smaller scale, both plot- and theme-wise. Uncut Gems goes way bigger on both—the plot involves an African gem, crime bosses, NBA players, and six-way parlays, while the themes have cosmic ambitions. Seriously—destiny, free will, the uncaring universe. Some Malick shit. It's incredible.

Although the Safdies and QT had scripts that would have won this category most years, they were no match for Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won and Parasite. It just tapped into what's going on in the world as we enter the 2020s in such a smart, accessible way. A remarkable achievement.

Best Director

Pedro Almodóvar – Pain and Glory
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite^

James Gray – Ad Astra

Josh and Bennie Safdie – Uncut Gems
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^

I don't have a ton of issues with the Oscar field on the whole, perhaps surprisingly. Martin Scorsese getting a nomination for a contemplative late-career epic gets no protest from me, even if I thought The Irishman would have been better as a miniseries. It's easy to see why Sam Mendes was nominated for 1917—it's perhaps the most obviously "directed" movie in the field. I liked it quite a bit, although I think Roger Deakins deserves as much credit as Mendes (or even more). Todd Phillips is more of a surprise, but I suspect voters were swayed by the rather artful filmmaking on display in Joker—surprising coming from a guy mostly known for mainstream comedies (even though he's almost entirely aping Scorsese). I wouldn't have nominated him (duh, as he's not in the list above), but I get it. Let's get on with my list, starting with the two holdovers.

• Like The Irishman, Tarantino's OUATIH is a film that only a veteran (and male, it must be said) director could make: slow-starting, meandering at times, overlong. But it's clear that QT wanted his film to be that way, the slowness a form of directorial confidence, cockiness—a lot of it is just characters shooting the shit, watching movies/TV, driving and listening to music. The effect is wonderfully calming, like all is right in the world—and, indeed, all was right in this version of 1969 Hollywood, which makes the ending (in which Dalton and Booth violently kill Sharon Tate's would-be murderers) all the more effective. In this alternate history, the Manson family never killed Tate or the hippie culture, allowing both to (presumably) flourish in the '70s. It's QT's most hopeful movie yet, and a powerful counterpoint to the rank misanthropy of The Hateful Eight (a movie that improved a lot on subsequent viewings).
• Bong is one of the most versatile directors in the world, capable of handling a crime drama (Memories of Murder), creature feature (The Host), dystopian action movie (Snowpiercer), and an adventure movie with a CGI superpig (Okja) all with equal aplomb. So it should be no surprise that Parasite—his most accomplished film yet—blends so many tones/genres so well: dark comedy, satire, domestic drama, thriller, all of it suffused with social commentary like the rest of his films. It's one of the rare films that both keeps the audience guessing in every scene—consummately dancing around expectations—and provides absolutely no clue, no roadmap to where it's going. It's an utterly singular work, and I look forward to seeing him try to top it.
• In Uncut Gems, the Safdies do half of what Parasite does—keeps the audience guessing in every scene—but it does it so well that it doesn't even matter that the way the film ends is the only possible way for it to end. Like Santiago Nasar, Howard Ratner's eventual fate is a certainty, but the Safdies manage to covertly construct an elaborate cinematic ruse around him, culminating in a masterful climactic set piece that takes place during, of all things, the 2012 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals. Audience and character both lose sight of what must eventually happen—and when it does happen, it lands like a fucking haymaker. I'm not sure if I've even recovered yet, all these weeks later.
• A confession: I've seen every Almodóvar film since Bad Education except Julieta (which I somehow missed in 2016)... but I haven't seen anything before that. No Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown. No All About My Mother. No Talk to Her. So when I say that Pain and Glory is the best Almodóvar film I've seen, just know that I haven't seen some of his most renowned works. But for a director who has sometimes been celebrated for his excesses (and sometimes derided—although I actually liked I'm So Excited), this is lovingly restrained work, a sober and honest reflection on his own life, achievements, and shortcomings, filtered through a barely hidden fictionalization. Not having seen some of his previous peaks makes this hard to say for sure, but this sure seems like the pinnacle of his career from my vantage point.
• I've seen all of Tarantino's films, a good chunk of Bong's, most of Almodóvar's recent work, but (like the Safdies), I've only see one of Gray's previous films—2013's The Immigrant. Some critics lauded it as a masterpiece, but I was mostly left cold. There was a lot to admire in the performances, the costumes/set designs, and the cinematography, but it was all a bit... austere, sterile to me. The Lost City of Z has been on my list for a while, but I've just never found the right time to put it on. All of which is to say I didn't really have any firm expectations for Ad Astra, his Pitt-starring space epic. But I was spellbound from the opening, which featured a serene Pitt literally falling from orbit. The film mostly stays in a ruminative tenor despite the appearance of things that could be silly but very much aren't, including moon pirates and a space baboon. The moon pirate scene especially is dazzling. Although I didn't love the heavy-handedness of the ending (mostly, but not all, a script problem), Ad Astra nonetheless has nudged some of Gray's previous films a bit higher in my queue.

I think Bong Joon-ho has a decent chance to win on Sunday, but there is no such equivocating here: he's easily the winner in this strong field. In five years of these fake awards I have yet to split Best Director and Best Picture (although I might if I went back and redid 2017—The Handmaiden vs. Moonlight is such a tough call in both categories). I'm not going to start now in a year with such a clear-cut Best Picture winner.

Best Picture

9) Us

8) John Wick 3

7) Midsommar

6) Ad Astra

5) Pain and Glory

4) Uncut Gems

3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2) Avengers: Endgame

1) Parasite

I've already said a ton about most of these films, so I'll end my fake awards ramble with a few words about the one film that didn't appear in any of the above categories: Avengers: Endgame. It was the #1 box office movie of the year, and an Oscar nominee for Best Visual Effects—and also my #2 movie of the year, despite no representation in the eight categories above. ScarJo was on my longlist for Best Supporting Actress (she actually does a damn good job and was so much better than she was in Jojo Rabbit), and it'd probably have gotten a nomination if I had an Adapted Screenplay category. None of the other performances was particularly impressive (although Downey and Evans were solid), and the direction was the typical generic Marvel house style. So how did it wind up at #2 on my list, sandwiched between two Oscar contenders?

Well, I've always embraced "trash" and "art" on this blog, and I've genuinely liked—and sometimes loved—most of the MCU movies over the years. Hell, the first Avengers movie was my #3 movie of 2012. (I didn't love Age of Ultron or Infinity War, but there was a lot to like in both on rewatches.) I've spent a lot of time with this franchise, having seen every movie in theaters and doing a complete rewatch at home between Infinity War and Endgame. I wouldn't say I had high expectations for it—I was just hoping for a satisfying ending, to be honest. But Endgame mostly nailed it. It's a near-perfect popcorn movie. Of course, it doesn't really work as a standalone movie, and its impactfulness is entirely contingent upon the viewer having any kind of familiarity with and investment in the MCU franchise a whole... so I get it if you didn't like it as much as I did. But I did—enough to make it my second-favorite movie of the year. I wouldn't have batted an eye if it got an actual Best Picture nomination (it's definitely better than the comic book movie that did not nominated). I have no idea where the MCU will go from here—I mean, I'll follow it, but I don't see how they top Endgame.

That wraps up another fake Oscars. If you want to go down the rabbit hole, you can check out my complete ranked list of all the 2019 movies I saw on Letterboxd. There are also micro-reviews for each. Now, time to make my actual Oscar predictions. Hoping to have it up tomorrow, but it'll likely be Sunday afternoon. As always, thanks for reading!

2020 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Honestly, I don't know what to make of the Oscars after last year's travesty of a Green Book win. I thought the ever-diversifying Academy was well beyond that kind of reductive bullshit, especially after the Moonlight over La La Land triumph in 2017. Evidently not, and I have a harrowing feeling it's going to happen again with this year's turd in the punch bowl, Jojo Rabbit. The schlocky, too-cutesy Hitler Youth pseudo-satire has been racking up prestigious guild nominations left and right and has positioned itself as a legitimate Best Picture contender. Fortunately, there are a number of other outstanding contenders—the Best Picture race is wide open at this point. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite—two of my favorite films of the year—could easily snag the big prize, and The Irishman (like but not quite love for me) also has a good shot. Those four are probably the main contenders right now, but 1917 can't be counted out after its Golden Globes win. It should be an interesting next month before the ceremony on February 9th. For now, let's try to sort through the field for the major eight awards and see what is likely to be nominated on Oscar morning (tomorrow!).

Last year, I was correct on 37/44 predictions, and I'm not counting on doing much better this year, as several of the races are murkier than ever after the frontrunners. There could be more big surprises this year than usual—especially if some of the branches of the Academy try to make up for last year. As usual, all nominees below are listed in order of perceived likelihood.

^ = early winner prediction
* = haven't seen it

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig – Little Women^
Steven Zaillian – The Irishman
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver – Joker
Anthony McCarten – The Two Popes*
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Next in line:
Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Mario Correa and Matthew Michael Carnahan – Dark Waters

The first three are almost assured to be nominated, as they should be in the Best Picture field. Gerwig and Zaillian—a past nominee and winner, respectively—are quite deserving, while I did not at all care for Waititi's movie (obviously). Perhaps it was an improvement on the source material; I have no idea and am not particularly interested in finding out. Joker should also be among the Best Picture nominees, but comic book movies tend to not do well in the writing categories—and, indeed, the script is among the movie's weaknesses. But if it snags a Best Picture nom as seems likely, it's a safe bet to be nominated here as well. That leaves (likely) two nominees for the final spot (Dark Waters is a true, ahem, dark horse). I haven't seen Popes, and I found Neighborhood more trite than most seem to have. It's a true toss-up, but McCarten has multiple previous nominations, so let's go with him.

Wishful thinking: Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely – Avengers: Endgame (only half-serious; it was a weak year for adapted screenplays)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story^
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Rian Johnson – Knives Out
Lulu Wang – The Farewell*
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Next in line:
Pedro Almodóvar – Pain and Glory
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns – 1917*
Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, Katie Silberman – Booksmart

My thoughts here mirror the Adapted category above—confident about the first three, then three contenders for the final two spots. Baumbach's, Tarantino's, and Bong's scripts are all masterpieces in their own way. Parasite is my favorite script of the year (and probably in several years), but Baumbach and QT would be deserving winners as well. Johnson has somehow never been nominated for an Oscar. Although Knives Out was another "like didn't quite love" movie for me, I'm rooting for a nomination for his script—and it'd be well deserved. That leaves, seemingly, Wang vs. Almodóvar for the final nomination. I haven't seen The Farewell, but I've heard nothing but good things. Pain and Glory is one of my favorite films of the year, and Almodóvar is a past winner in this category. It's a tough call, but I have a feeling the Academy will go with new blood here. I'd be thrilled with a longshot Booksmart nomination, though.

Wishful thinking: Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, and Benny Safdie – Uncut Gems, Alex Ross Perry – Her Smell, Shia LeBeouf – Honey Boy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – Marriage Story^
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
Margot Robbie – Bombshell
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
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Next in line:
Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell*
Annette Bening – The Report
Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I feel fairly confident this will be the field. At the very least, the first three are stone-cold locks. There was a time when Lopez was the presumed frontrunner, but that honor now goes to Dern, who is very likely the eventual winner. She's great, of course, but her role (not her performance, mind you) lacked impact for me. I'd much prefer Lopez or, especially, Pugh here. Lopez owned every second she was on the screen, and Pugh's arc in Little Women was marvelous. Robbie gave it her all with a very poorly written part (WTF was that lesbian subplot?!), and the less said about Johansson's role, the better. (And I honestly prefer her performance in Endgame.) I don't think there will be any surprises here, but Zhao seems to have the best shot at crashing the party. I can't really say more since I haven't seen the film. (I do intend to watch it though, even if it comes up empty-handed tomorrow morning.)

Wishful thinking: Cho Yeo-jeong – Parasite, Chang Yyae-jin – Parasite, Cecilia Roth – Pain and Glory

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Song Kang Ho – Parasite
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Next in line:
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes*
Alan Alda – Marriage Story
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse

I think—*think*—the top four are locks. Like Dern above, Pitt seems likely to win his first acting Oscar (he does have a statue for acting as a producer on 12 Years a Slave). There will be no complaints from me—he's fantastic in QT's latest. Scorsese regular Pesci and (somehow) first-time Scorsese collaborator Pacino should be shoo-ins for The Irishman. I prefer Pacino's performance over Pesci's, but in the unlikely event one of them misses out, it'll probably be Pacino. I can't think of a single scenario where Tom fucking Hanks playing Mister fucking Rogers doesn't get nominated for an Oscar, but Hanks hasn't been nominated since Cast Away—which includes an egregious snub for Captain Phillips—so who knows. I think—again, *think*—the final nomination will come down to Song and Hopkins. Hopkins is probably the smarter bet—he's Anthony fucking Hopkins playing, evidently, one pope—but Parasite is insanely buzzy right now, and Song Kang-ho is phenomenal in it. Here's hoping one of South Korea's—and the world's—finest actors is rightfully rewarded.

Wishful thinking:  Asier Exteandia – Pain and Glory, Shia LeBeouf – Honey Boy, Bill Hader – It: Chapter 2

BEST ACTRESS
Renée Zellweger – Judy*^
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet*
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Next in line:
Awkwafina – The Farewell*
Lupita Nyong'o – Us

I'm a bit hazy on this category, having not seen several of the major contenders. One thing is all but certain, though—Zellweger will be taking home her second Oscar next month (and first in the Lead category). I'll have more to say when I see her film. Theron—whom I typically love but didn't really care for in Bombshell—and Johansson—who I'm generally ambivalent about but quite liked in Marriage Story—are her closest competition. It'll be their third and first nominations, respectively. It seems like it should be more for each, right? Ronan—who has very quickly built up an impressive resume—should snag her fourth nomination for a film I liked a lot more than I thought I would. That likely leaves Erivo, Awkwafina, and Nyong'o as contenders for the final slot. (Gee, three women of color...) Not having seen Harriet or The Farewell makes it somewhat difficult to forecast. I have seen Us, and Nyong'o is fantastic in it, but the buzz for it seems to have died down. I think an ascendant newcomer playing a revered historical figure is a safe bet, so I'll go with Erivo, but either of the other two leapfrogging her wouldn't surprise me at all.

Wishful thinking: Elizabeth Moss – Her Smell, Florence Pugh – Midsommar, Aisling Franciose – The Nightingale

BEST ACTOR
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker^
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Taron Egerton – Rocketman
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Next in line:
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes*
Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name
Robert De Niro – The Irishman

Like basically every other category, the first three should all be in. But it's a bloodbath for the final two spots here, with at least six possible contenders for the final spots. The other categories all have only 2-3 possibilities. Taking a bird's eye view of this field—unusually strong for Best Actor of late—we'll start with the obvious: Phoenix will win his first Oscar next month, becoming the second actor to win a statue for playing the Joker (R.I.P., Heath!). Driver will join the multi-nominations club and DiCaprio will pad his resume as well. Both are incredibly deserving—Driver is a powerhouse and Leo has a couple of my favorite scenes of the year. After those three... it's anyone's guess. Although, since this is my blog, I guess it's my guess? Crap. Let's eliminate a couple names first. De Niro seems to be lagging behind his costars, and for good reason—his is a steady performance, and it lacks the highlight reel scenes. Murphy could certainly snag a surprise nomination, but his buzz seems to have died down, and he does have a previous nomination, so his narrative is weakened. Perennial favorite Bale seems to have a good shot, but perhaps his perennial status will work against him? (He's very good but not Oscar good in a movie I really liked.) No idea what to say about Pryce since I haven't seen his movie, but the veteran has never been nominated and would seem to have a very good chance. But I'm going with Banderas—who has also never been nominated and is superlative in Almodóvar's film—and Egerton, who gets the standard biopic nomination. (He's fine in the movie.) I'm expecting chaos here, though.

Wishful thinking: Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems, Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse/High Life

BEST DIRECTOR
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Sam Mendes – 1917*
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
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Next in line:
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
Greta Gerwig – Little Women
Todd Phillips – Joker
Pedro Almodóvar – Pain and Glory

Like Supporting Actor, I feel pretty confident in the first four here. QT, Scorsese, and Mendes are all familiar names to varying degrees (although Mendes only has one previous nomination—surprising). They'll probably be duking it out for the statue at the ceremony. (Hopefully not literally.). Bong seems locked in as well, given the groundswell of love Parasite has been getting industry-wide. That leaves at least five contenders for that last nomination (another bloodbath here). Almodóvar is probably least likely, but, I mean, his movie is *about* a director, so he could be a vanity pick. (And his movie is sensational as well, which doesn't hurt.) It's tough to count out Phillips with a couple solid precursors (Globe and BAFTA), but voters might decide that a likely screenplay nod is enough. Gerwig is the lone female contender in what has been widely regarded as a strong year for female-helmed films. I hate the tokenism angle, but it's potentially valid even though she'd be an absolutely deserving nominee. Waititi has the important DGA nomination, but DGA and AMPAS rarely match 5-for-5. His inclusion or not here will go a long way toward deciding the Best Picture race, I feel. (Ugh.) But I think Baumbach—a previous writing nominee but never for directing—will be the "surprise" here in the morning. Marriage Story is a very directorly film—the staging is impeccable and there are a couple memorable long takes. I can see that branch having enough support for the film to nab Baumbach a nom. (Say that five times fast.) I'll be hoping for Gerwig or Almodóvar (although I'd be fine with Baumbach, honestly).

Wishful thinking: Josh and Bennie Safdie – Uncut Gems, James Gray – Ad Astra, Ari Aster – Midsommar

BEST PICTURE
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood^
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
1917
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Joker
Little Women
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Next in line:
Ford v Ferrari
The Farewell
Knives Out
The Two Popes
Bombshell
Uncut Gems

This is always the toughest category to predict, as the number of nominees isn't set. That said, I'd be pretty shocked if any of the top eight listed here miss out on a nomination. Little Women is period-piece Oscar catnip (although it's much more than that), Joaquin Phoenix will carry Joker to a nomination on his back, and Driver and ScarJo will do the same for Marriage Story. AMPAS isn't going to *not* nominate Scorsese's pensive gangster retrospective, nor Mendes's (purportedly) technically magnificent WWI epic. Parasite is thankfully primed to become South Korea's first Best Picture nominee, and Jojo Rabbit gets the requisite Holocaust film nomination. (*vomits*) And, at this juncture, OUATIH is happily the favorite. Let's all look back on this moment fondly when Imaginary Hitler and the Dead Mom ruin my Sunday night. Of the rest, I don't know if I see enough across-the-board support to get to a ninth or tenth nominee. Ford and Farewell would seem to have the best chances given the former's box office receipts and the latter's possible nominations in other major categories. Knives Out also has box office and critical pedigree, and a nomination wouldn't be a shock. Popes and Bombshell have a certain pedigree but a decided lack of buzz. Uncut Gems definitely has buzz in its favor, but was it released too late for most voters to see? As things stand right now, I'll go with a smaller field instead of going out on a limb. The top eight just seem right. Let's just hope that Jojo Rabbit doesn't gain any more momentum in the next month.

Wishful thinking: Avengers: Endgame, Ad Astra, Us

I'm actually finished relatively early for me—it's not even midnight, AZ time. Time to finish this beer and get some sleep—I've got a work meeting in the morning. But you know I'll be poring over the field before then. The films I'll be rooting for that seem to need it most are Parasite and Pain and Glory. Hoping for plenty of international nominations in these major categories in the morning!