Not Getting My Hopes Up: 2020 Oscars Predictions

A year hasn't been long enough to get rid of the stink of Green Book's win last year—a win that both damaged the Academy's (already shaky) credibility as well as the legacy of the film itself. Green Book—not actually a terrible film!—will now go down with Crash—also not actually a terrible film!—as one of the worst Best Picture winners in recent history. Now, whenever it is mentioned among cinephiles and Oscar enthusiasts, it'll be greeted with teeth-gnashing and derision—when it could have just been remembered as a well-intentioned, if ham-handed, minor box office hit like, I dunno, Little Miss Sunshine or something. And the Academy really shot themselves in the foot by selecting it for the top prize, undoing almost all of the progress and good will that came from the Moonlight over La La Land upset in 2016. If there had been a stronger top challenger than Roma—an outstanding film, but not exactly a cultural touchstone—the Oscars might've been relegated to the same out-of-touch irrelevancy as the Grammys. I don't think there's any danger of that with this year's Best Picture field, but last year's ceremony really underscored just how frustratingly unpredictable the Academy is. It is ever diversifying—growing more multicultural, younger, and female than it has been in the past—but there's still a sizable old (white male) guard that still has the muscle to put a film like Green Book over the top. All of which is to say that I have absolutely no idea how things will play out in the non-acting categories on Sunday. The field is that wide open. The favorites in acting categories all seem to be locked in, although I think there will be one Olivia Colman–esque upset this year. So, let's get to the predictions already, starting as the ceremony itself usually does, with the supporting performances. (Note: I reserve the right to change picks before the ceremony starts!)

Gold = predicted winner

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Golden Globe, BAFTA, SAG—Laura Dern has won all the major precursors and seems overwhelmingly likely to break through with her first Oscar win (in three tries). She's typically great in Marriage Story, even if she wouldn't get my vote. Interesting note: Dern is on the Academy Board of Governors, so expect a raucous round of applause when she wins. In the event of a massive upset, keep an eye on first-time nominee Scarlett Johannson, who people seem to like in the mawkish Jojo Rabbit. But Dern and ScarJo and the rest would all be behind Florence Pugh on my ballot. She's sensational in Little Women.

My Non-Existent Vote: Pugh

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

We'll very likely have another first-time winner here in Brad Pitt, who plays a handsome man in the film industry in QT's Hollywood fairytale. He gave a better performance in another film (Ad Astra), doesn't give the best performance in his movie (that would be Leo), and at least one other nominee here was better in their film (Pacino), but no one will care about any of those things on Sunday when he takes the podium, statue in hand. (For the record, he'll be a very worthy winner.) This category seems the least likely for an upset, but Pesci is probably the best longshot.

My Non-Existent Vote: Pacino

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Renée Zellweger – Judy

Renée Zellweger is almost certain to win her second Oscar in a lackluster field. Best Actress is almost always stronger than Best Actor, but the opposite is true this year. We've got two impressions of real-world figures (Zellweger and Theron), one rote biopic portrayal of a historical figure (Erivo), and one beloved literary character (Ronan). There's only one original character—Johansson, who's actually quite good. (Compare that to three original characters for the men, and four in this category last year.) That's not to say the other performances aren't good—they're all solid, and Ronan is very good—but the degree of difficulty is lowered when you have to portray someone who really existed or has been portrayed in other films. This category is just behind Supporting Actor as least likely for an upset, but I think it'd be Erivo if anyone.

My Non-Existent Vote: Ronan

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

This field was a joke last year, so it's only fitting that, this year, Joaquin Phoenix will be the second man to win an Oscar for playing the Joker. Rather than channeling the legend himself, Heath Ledger (R.I.P., always), he instead channeled Bruce Wayne himself and went full Bale—massive weight loss, fanatical Method-ism. It's not the best performance of the year or even of his career, but it's certainly memorable and I don't really have a problem with him winning. That said, this is the category that has the most upset potential, given the exhausting discourse around Phoenix's film. Banderas or, especially, Driver could pull off the shocker.

My Non-Existent Vote: Banderas

Best Adapted Screenplay

Greta Gerwig – Little Women
Anthony McCarten – The Two Popes
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver – Joker
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
Steven Zaillian – The Irishman

This is where things start to get interesting, as there's no clear-cut frontrunner like in the acting categories. I don't think it'll be The Two Popes (too minor), The Irishman (too unfocused), or Joker (too divisive), so I think it'll come down to Little Women and Jojo Rabbit. There was a lot of vitriol in the Twittersphere when Gerwig (among others) missed out on a Best Director nomination, which makes me think she has a chance here—and, like Jojo Rabbit, this might be the voters' only chance to award the film. But I suspect that the cutesy-ness and Holocaust connections of Jojo Rabbit will (undeservedly) win it for Taika Waititi. Waititi is incredibly likable, but I don't love his writing for the most part. But if this is the only major award the film wins, I'll consider it a victory.

My Non-Existent Vote: Gerwig

Best Original Screenplay

Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Rian Johnson – Knives Out
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns – 1917
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The other writing category is even more wide-open—I could see Baumbach, Bong, or QT winning. (Johnson's win was the nomination, and 1917 barely needed a script—only a slight exaggeration.) OUATIH seems to have a lot of support—Hollywood loves movies about the movies, etc.—but I'm having a hard time seeing it winning anything substantial apart from Supporting Actor. Baumbach was the nominal frontrunner at one point for Marriage Story, but he doesn't seem to have ton of arduous support... unlike Bong Joon-ho, who I think—and hope—wins it here. He won the WGA award, and there seems to be a groundswell of support for Parasite of late. Will it be enough to win the big prize? I have my doubts, but it seems like a fairly safe pick here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Bong

Best Director

Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Sam Mendes – 1917
Todd Phillips – Joker
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Like Best Picture very well could, this one should come down to two films—Parasite and 1917. Phillips is in the "nomination was the win" category, Scorsese is nothing more than a sentimental favorite, and QT is a well-regarded also-ran. Although I'd love to see Bong win here, it's hard to make a case for him based on anything other than gut and admiration for his film. Other than something called a "Palme D'or"—which has basically zero predictive value for the Oscars—he hasn't won a single precursor. Meanwhile, Mendes has the big three (Golden Globe, BAFTA, and DGA), and the list of directors who have lost the Oscar after winning those three is minuscule. Plus the optics are clearly in Mendes's favor—Parasite is a foreign-language film and 1917 is a war spectacle. I don't think Bong can overcome these major hurdles, meaning I think Sam Mendes will win him a second Best Director Oscar. An upset definitely can't be counted out, though—especially given Picture/Director splits have become more common of late.

My Non-Existent Vote: Bong

Best Picture

1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

There seems to be two main contenders here and two dark horses. Off the bat, I think we can wave goodbye to Ford v Ferrari (which I loved but is a bit out of its depth in this race), The Irishman (should've been a miniseries and feels like it), Joker (the Academy isn't ready for a comic book movie to win Best Picture), Little Women (a Very Fine Picture that never had a chance here), and Marriage Story (an actors/writers movie, not a Best Picture winner). The potential spoilers are Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (which seemed like the frontrunner at one point) and Jojo Rabbit (please god no that would be worse than Green Book). UOATIH could benefit from a some kind of strange split at the top and/or some funkiness with the preferential balloting system—its support doesn't seem particularly deep, but it could be very broad. A Jojo Rabbit win would be the opposite—maybe it lands at the top of an unexpected number of ballots? I fervently hope not, but I could maybe see it. But the most likely scenario is a 1917/Parasite showdown, which seems weird. A WWI epic (not exactly the most timely material) and a foreign-language dark comedy/thriller (whose material is incredibly timely). Strange bedfellows, indeed. A 1917 win would largely be a shrug from the Academy—it's a well-made film but has no societal significance, and war epics are a dime a dozen in Oscars history. It wouldn't be backtracking like Green Book was—it'd be more like when The Artist won. Boring and meaningless. But if Parasite were to pull off the upset... man, what a statement. The first foreign-language film to win Best Picture, and a genuine masterpiece to boot. But when it comes down to it, I think enough Academy voters will make the easy choice and mark down 1917 as the winner here. Although Film Twitter might very well melt down, I don't think there will be as much teeth-gnashing in general as when Green Book won last year. I'm hoping for the best, but am preparing for meh. AMPAS has fooled me too many times to get my hopes up—I'm still stinging from the The King's Speech win over The Social Network. But as long as Jojo fucking Rabbit doesn't win, I'll be happy. I hope that's not too much to ask.

My Non-Existent Vote: Parasite

Now for the rest of the categories, lightning-round style.

Best International Feature Film

Parasite (South  Korea) – Bong Joon-ho

I'll just leave the same text as last year: Duh—if you're the only foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture, you're gonna win this category. One of the easier calls of the night.

My Non-Existent Vote: Parasite

Best Animated Film 

Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera, and Mark Nielsen

It seems like a bad idea to bet against Pixar and the Toy Story franchise in general, but do note that Klaus won the Annie Award this year.

My Non-Existent Vote: Toy Story 4 (the only one I've seen, but it was great)

Best Documentary Feature

American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert

As usual, I haven't seen any of the nominees, so I'm flying blind here. Just not a documentary person. *shrug ASCII* This one seems to be the consensus winner among prognosticators.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Short

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva

Leaving the text from last year again: Another complete guess. You would have to pay me so much money to sit through not one but five documentaries.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Animated Short

Hair Love – Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson

The two frontunners in an underwhelming field—this and Pixar's Kitbull—are both cutesy, but this one is less so and is also less clichéd. But like I said above, it's usually a bad idea to bet against Pixar.

My Non-Existent Vote: Memorable – Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre

Best Live Action Short

The Neighbors' Window – Marshall Curry

This is a really tough call—all the nominees were varying degrees of good (although this one was my least favorite). Going with the only English-language nominee sounds about right after last year.

My Non-Existent Vote: Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon

Best Score

Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker

This wasn't a strong category, but Guðnadóttir stands out for a number of reasons—she's the only female nominee, the only first-time nominee, and her score is sonically quite different from the rest.

My Non-Existent Vote: Guðnadóttir

Best Original Song

"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" – Elton John and Bernie Taupin (from Rocketman)

Not a strong field overall, especially compared to last year. John and Taupin seem like a pretty safe bet, especially after their touching Golden Globes acceptance speech. Harriet is a potential spoiler.

My Non-Existent Vote: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again"

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins – 1917

To paraphrase another film Deakins shot: "Lock it in, dude." One of the easiest calls of the night, and a deserved second statue for Deakins. The Lighthouse and OUATIH were both outstanding, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Deakins

Best Editing

Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker – Ford v Ferrari

There's not an obvious winner here, but "action" films sometimes do well here, so I'm going with the racing movie. ACE Eddie Award winners Parasite or Jojo Rabbit are also strong possibilities.

My Non-Existent Vote: Thelma Schoonmaker – The Irishman

Best Production Design

Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917 could easily win, but I have a feeling AMPAS will vote for a nostalgic recreation of their own backyard. There wasn't a movie where the sets were more important last year than Parasite, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Lee Ha-jun and Cho Won-woo – Parasite

Best Costume Design

Arianne Phillips – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I almost went with the standard period piece in Little Women, but was there a more indelible costume design last year than Brad Pitt's Hawaiian shirt in OUATIH? Not to mention Leo's Lancer wear.

My Non-Existent Vote: Phillips

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker – Bombshell

This is apparently the first year five films will be nominated. Expect a win for Bombshell's Fox News haircuts, but Joker or Judy could upset.

My Non-Existent Vote: Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou – Joker

Best Sound Mixing

Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson – 1917

If there's a Best Picture–nominated war movie, it's almost assuredly going to win. Ford v Ferrari has an extremely slight chance at an upset, but 1917 is a monumental favorite in both categories.

My Non-Existent Vote: Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow – Ford v Ferrari

Best Sound Editing

Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate – 1917

See above.

My Non-Existent Vote: Donald Sylvester – Ford v Ferrari

Best Visual Effects

Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy – 1917

1917 is going to win a fuckton of technical categories, including this one. I just hope that Oscar voters will feel the technical awards are enough and go with Parasite for Best Picture.

My Non-Existent Vote: Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy – Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

I did terribly last year—15/24, one of my worst performances ever. I'm feeling much more confident this year—except in the top two categories, Director and Picture. Hoping for Parasite, going with 1917, and praying it isn't Jojo Rabbit. I'd take an Oscar pool win as well, but that almost never happens... maybe twice ever? Looking forward to the ceremony, as ever—I almost wish I knew how to quit it. But I never will. Unless Jojo Rabbit wins.