It's that time once again: time to crack a brewski beer or two or three the night before the Oscars and crank out my usual predix. (Ed. Four brewski beers. It wound up being four brewski beers.) This is something like my 15th year writing up my Oscar predictions. I started on this blog in 2010, and I know I did them for at least a year before that in the form of a Facebook note (which I think have disappeared into the ether). I usually do fairly well, but I don't think I've gotten much better at these predictions over the years. I still usually go with my heart over my head for a pick or two, which invariably costs me if I'm in an Oscar pool. I'm pretty sure Kerry Condon and My Year of Dicks were those picks last year.
Speaking of last year, there wasn't a ton of, ahem, drama, as Everything Everywhere All at Once was the big winner, as widely predicted. Its haul included the only real surprise of the major categories, Jamie Lee Curtis for Best Supporting Actress. I thought and still think she was the clear-cut worst choice of the nominees, but a year later I can't say I'm still terribly mad about it. (Which isn't always the case. I'm still SUPER salty about The King's Speech over The Social Network, and Tom Hooper over David Fincher, in 2011.) Overall, I went 18/23 with just the one major category miss and a few random down-ballot ones.
I'm hoping to equal or better that this year, in what looks to be another ceremony devoid of major drama. Six of the eight major categories seem all but sewn up, with a whiff of uncertainly around Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Actress being a bit more uncertain than that. This year's EEAAO looks to be Oppenheimer, which should win several of the top prizes and even more in the technical categories. So let's see just how "higher" Oppenheimer will go, shall we?
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Let's start with the easiest category to handicap, bar none. Da'Vine Joy Randolph has won just about every precursor you could think of, and she will win her first Oscar for her wonderful performance in The Holdovers. I can't even imagine who would be her closest competition—maybe Blunt or Brooks? Both are good but definitely not Oscar worthy. Ditto Ferrera; I still can't fathom why she was nominated. She delivered the big Barbie monologue, sure, but there's nothing technically meritorious about her acting in the least. My second-favorite performance of the bunch behind Randolph is probably Foster, who's tender and witty opposite Annette Bening in the better-than-expected (to me) Nyad.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Randolph, 2) Foster, 3) Blunt, 4) Brooks, 5) Ferrera
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Here's another basically completely locked-in category: Robert Downey Jr. will win his first Oscar in his third attempt. He's... good in Oppenheimer, don't get me wrong, but I suspect this win is more of a tip of the cap to his career (including and especially the bajillion dollars he made for the industry as Iron Man, the first MCU superhero). He'd be near the bottom of my ranking of these five—Gosling had one of the best comedic performances of the decade, Brown just *owns* the screen whenever he's on it, and De Niro delivers his (easily) best late-career performance. I thought Ruffalo was also good but his performance (character, really) lacks range; I would have preferred that Willem Dafoe got the Poor Things nomination.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Gosling, 2) Brown, 3) De Niro, 4) Downey Jr., 5) Ruffalo
Best Actress
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things
If anything interesting/unexpected/memorable were to happen in one of the major categories, it would be here. If anyone is considered the frontrunner, it's Lily Gladstone—who I am also predicting as the winner, to be clear. She won the two precursors that matter most (Golden Globes – Drama and the SAG, plus numerous others) and has captivated audiences with her speeches where she's won. But you can't count out Stone (a previous winner who captured the Golden Globes – Comedy, BAFTA, and Critic's Choice) and Hüller, who seems to be the dark horse in the race. (Bening and Mulligan are also-rans both seeking their first Oscar.) I think Stone's previous win actually hurts her here a bit, and I doubt the Academy really goes for Hüller (who I thought had the best performance; although I'd still vote for Gladstone), so I'm sticking with Gladstone, who would seem to be the easy choice both on merit and for narrative reasons (first-ever Native winner here).
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Gladstone, 2) Hüller, 3) Stone, 4) Bening, 5) Mulligan
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
That makes three out of four of the acting categories with overwhelming favorites: Cillian Murphy should take this one with ease. He'd be another first-time winner and very deservingly so—he's incredible as Robert J. Oppenheimer. You can't *quite* write off Giamatti yet—at one point he looked like the frontrunner and is incredibly well-liked and respected. Same with Wright, who will hopefully be back at some point since he has no shot this year. Cooper is another past nominee and a likely future winner, while respected Broadway actor Domingo is just happy to be here. Both were Just Fine in awards-baity biopics.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Murphy, 2) Giamatti, 3) Wright, 4) Cooper, 5) Domingo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach – Barbie
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Cord Jefferson – American Fiction
Tony McNamara – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
I'm not quite sure how predicted winner Cord Jefferson became the frontrunner for American Fiction, but here we are. I don't think any of these are flawless scripts, but I don't see Fiction's as appreciably better than Barbie's (still probably the best of the bunch) or Oppenheimer's (the only major category it doesn't figure to win where it's nominated). Don't get me wrong, it's a good script—very funny with some touching moments, even if the satire isn't always razor sharp and it struggles to juggle the two main plotlines from time to time—but I wouldn't at all count out an "upset" from the more established Nolan or, especially, Gerwig/Baumbach (the one I'll be rooting for). McNamara would make a worthy winner for the beguiling Poor Things, while I'm not sure I see Glazer's script as nomination-worthy (the strengths of Zone are almost overwhelmingly technical).
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Gerwig and Baumbach, 2) McNamara, 3) Nolan, 4) Jefferson, 5) Glazer
Best Original Screenplay
Samy Burch – May December
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer – Maestro
David Hemingson – The Holdovers
Celine Song – Past Lives
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari – Anatomy of a Fall
The frontrunner and predicted winner here makes more sense to me—Justine Triet and Arthur Harari should be taking home the Oscar for the sensational writing of Anatomy of a Fall. I think it's the best script of any kind this past year, one that I haven't been able to stop thinking about since I saw the film a couple weeks ago. Their closest competition here is likely Hemingson (recent plagiarism mini-controversy notwithstanding) or Song, who is probably my second choice here. (I also have been thinking about Past Lives a bunch since watching it.) As far as the other two nominees go, I actually thought Todd Haynes's direction elevated a vexing script from Burch, and Cooper sure can do it all, including (co-)writing a fairly formulaic biopic script.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Triet and Harari, 2) Song, 3) Hemingson, 4) Burch, 5) Cooper and Singer
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
It took the Academy long enough to figure it out (he's been Oscar-worthy as a director as far back as 2006's The Prestige), but Christopher Nolan will take home his first Oscar as well for the monumental Oppenheimer. An upset isn't going to happen, but it if did, Lanthimos is the most likely culprit—he's very well regarded and it seems only a matter of time before he picks up his first statue. For whatever reason, Killers just didn't seem to resonate with awards voters outside of Gladstone's performance—which is a shame, because Marty Scores delivered another late-career near-masterpiece. Both Glazer and Triet are more than nomination-worthy—especially Glazer, who continues to be one of the most singular and innovative arthouse auteurs working these days. Read up on the making of Zone if you haven't. This is a super strong field, although I do wish they had found room for Greta Gerwig.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Nolan, 2) Scorsese, 3) Glazer, 4) Lanthimos, 5) Triet
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
To answer the question posited in this blog post's amazing title, yes, you can definitely Oppenheimer. You can take Oppenheimer to a place with golden statues. This is the easiest-to-predict Best Picture race since... well, since last year. It's absolutely deserving of the Academy's top award—a critical and commercial juggernaut with an absolute buffet of a cast and technical merits up the wazoo. (I been drinkin', okay?) It's not hard to see how the Academy has coalesced around this as their top choice. Personally, I slightly prefer Killers of the Flower Moon, but I will absolutely be fine with a Best Picture win for ol' Oppy.
When writing up this category, I usually wax poetic a bit about What It Means for a movie to win Best Picture. In the most interesting years, there is usually something At Stake in this race. Some stakes are bigger than others, of course—Parasite over 1917/Jojo Rabbit and Green Book over Roma were major stakes (one for the good guys, one for the bad guys), while EEAAO over the field last year was much smaller stakes (a big win for genre fans and representation).
But some years don't really have any stakes. Neither 2020 (Nomadland) or 2021 (CODA) really had much at stake. This year feels a lot like those years—Oppenheimer taking the top prize wouldn't seem to signify anything of especial import in The Discourse. It's a well-made, well-liked movie that has a lot of across-the-board support behind it. But I do think it will be remembered better than the likes of Nomadland or CODA—and not only because it made over 20x the box office of those two combined. It's the rare film that resonated strongly with critics, the filmmaking industry at large, and the general moviegoing populace. (Along with Barbie, of course, Oppy's partner in the year of Barbenheimer.)
And I think this year's Best Picture crop will go down as one of the best of the past 10-15 years—it's up there with 2019 (Parasite) and 2016 (Moonlight), and maybe better top to bottom. As former A.V. Club (R.I.P.) chief film critic A.A. Dowd said, "Every single one of the Best Picture contenders feels like it belongs." It has everything from box office titans to midbudget adult comedies and dramas to major works from auteurs to the kind of prestige fare you'd expect in any given Best Picture field. It finally feels like the ever-growing and -diversifying Academy is starting to better reflect the trends and movies that capture the zeitgeist in real time, instead of the several-year delay they sometimes seem to be on. I'm sure AMPAS will prove me wrong next year, but for now, I'll choose to believe the Academy is finally on the right track for good, that's we're finally in a place where blind men see. (Gotta carry through the Creed theme!)
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Killers of the Flower Moon, 2) Oppenheimer, 3) Anatomy of a Fall, 4) Poor Things, 5) Barbie, 6) Past Lives, 7) The Holdovers, 8) American Fiction, 9) The Zone of Interest, 10) Maestro
Now it's time for LIGHTNING ROUND for the rest of the categories.
Best International Feature Film
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) – directed by Jonathan Glazer
There are very few certainties when it comes to the Oscars, but one is absolutely that the only film nominated for Best Picture in the international/foreign category will win the latter.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Zone of Interest (the only nominee I have seen)
Best Animated Feature Film
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – directed by Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and David Callaham
Don't discount The Boy and the Heron (which I sadly wasn't able to see before Oscar Sunday), but the second Spider-Verse installment was just as thrilling and visually marvelous as the first one.
My Non-Existent Vote: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (the only nominee I have seen)
Best Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol – directed by Mstyslav Chernov
So says the internets; as usual, I haven't seen any of the nominated film because I'm a bad White Person. But this one seems pretty timely, so let's go with it.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
Best Cinematography
Hoyte van Hoytema – Oppenheimer
Strap in: It's Oppenheimer country from here on out. This'll be the first Oscar for the rapidly ascending van Hoytema, who has worked with with the likes of Peele, Gray, and Jonze in addition to Nolan.
My Non-Existent Vote: Rodrigo Prieto – Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Editing
Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer
Another surefire Oppy win. Anytime you beat the GOAT (Thelma Schoonmaker), it's an extraordinary achievement. This is a helluva strong field, too, so this'll be well deserved.
My Non-Existent Vote: Lame
Best Original Score
Ludwig Göransson – Oppenheimer
The man who produced Camp will win his second Oscar (after Black Panther). Ain't nothing wrong with that, even though Robbie Robertson's work was far superior. (R.I.P.)
My Non-Existent Vote: Robbie Robertson – Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Original Song
"What Was I Made For?" – Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell (from Barbie)
Right movie, wrong song. I find this ballad a little boring (but nothing Eilish and her brother have ever done has resonated much with me). "I'm Just Ken" should be #Kenough. Also, poor Diane Warren.
My Non-Existent Vote: "I'm Just Ken"
Best Sound
Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, and Kevin O'Connell – Oppenheimer
O'Connell was once 0-20 in Oscar nominations; with a win, he would be 2-0 in his last two ceremonies after winning for (apparently) Hacksaw Ridge in 2016. But watch out for The Zone of Interest.
My Non-Existent Vote: Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn – The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima – Godzilla Minus One
Consensus seems to have shifted from The Creator (very good but perhaps too... polished to win here?) to Godzilla, which gets no complaints from me. The best Godzilla movie ever?
My Non-Existent Vote: Yamazaki, Shibuya, Takahashi, and Nojima
Best Production Design
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer – Barbie
Predicting a minor upset here for Barbie over Poor Things. Both would be worthy, but Barbie was the bigger movie and Greenwood is overdue for her first statue.
My Non-Existent Vote: Greenwood and Spencer
Best Costume Design
Holly Waddington – Poor Things
Often, this category is more like "Most" costume design, especially in a year without a no-doubt historical drama nominee (which is not Napoleon). It'll be this or Barbie for sure (also very worthy).
My Non-Existent Vote: Waddington
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell – Maestro
Poor Things is absolutely a contender here, but AMPAS isn't really gonna let Maestro go 0-for-7, is it? It's a prestige biopic with several characters aging and, honestly, the nose plays.
My Non-Existent Vote: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston – Poor Things
Best Live Action Short
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar – directed by Wes Anderson
The shorts are notoriously tough to predict and you can make a case for either The After or Red, White and Blue, but this would be Wes Anderson's first Oscar, so it feels like the right call.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Best Animated Short
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko – directed by Dave Mullins
This is utterly trite but that's NEVER stopped a short from winning here before. The impressionistic post-Holocaust Letter to a Pig is a possibility, but the death row short Ninety-Five Senses is the best.
My Non-Existent Vote: Ninety-Five Senses – directed by Jared and Jerusha Hess
Best Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning – directed by Sheila Nevins, Trish Adlesic, and Nazenet Habtezghi
It seems to be between this and The Last Repair shop. I'll sadly never know which one is better because no one has paid me the hundreds of dollars it would take for me to actually watch these.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
Wow, that got boozy toward the end. Just like when watching the Oscars telecast itself. I'm looking forward to watching tonight with several good friends dressed up in our Sunday best. I'll be hoping Lily Gladstone pulls through in Best Actress and rooting for upsets in Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. But mostly I'm just glad to be able to watch a great crop of films get rewarded. Not really many bad choices possible tonight! And Oppenheimer sweep and, say, 18 or 19 out of 23 and I'll be golden.
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