Monday, March 9, 2026

No Suspense: My 2025 Fake Oscars

The Oscars are around the corner, which means it's once again time for me to ramble about my favorite movies of the previous year. To kick things off, I think I'll use the same approach I did for my favorite music post and see how things stand here at the midpoint of the 2020s. Absolute shit decade overall (we very well might be in the early stages of World War III right now), but, hey, there have been some pretty damn great movies. Here's a quick, back-of-the-envelope attempt at a way-too-early top 10 (roughly in order):

Sinners
Wrath of Man
Tenet
The Iron Claw
Tár
Palm Springs
One Battle After Another
Aftersun
Dune
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Yep, I really do think Sinners is the best movie of the decade so far. (Sorry if that ruins the suspense of these Fake Oscars.) But considering the list as a whole, one thing jumps out at me right away: most of these movies are original stories not based on existing IP. Sinners, Tenet, The Iron Claw, Tár, Palm Springs, and Aftersun all fit the bill—stories made specifically for the screen. Of the rest, Wrath is a remake of a little-seen French action movie (which I still need to see), OBAA is a very loose adaptation of a Thomas Pynchon novel, Dune is an adaptation of Frank Herbert's seminal sci-fi novel that was once thought to be unfilmable (and if you've seen the David Lynch adaptation, you know what I mean), and Spider-Verse is a sequel based on existing IP, yes, but it's also an original screen story itself. More on original screen stories in a bit.

The other thing that jumps out at me is that not only are two 2025 movies on the list—Sinners and OBAA—but they're also the unquestioned Best Picture frontrunners here about two weeks before the ceremony. Whichever movie wins, I'll be happy for it, as it'll be the fourth straight year a movie in my top 5 has won the Oscar. (The less said about the CODA year, the better.)

Looking at the Best Picture field as a whole, it strikes me how much "of the moment" some of the films are. Sinners may take place in the 1930s, but, gee, do you think a movie about the Black experience in America is relevant today? OBAA and Bugonia explicitly touch on our current political state of affairs, and The Secret Agent shows the disastrous effects of a military dictatorship (like the one we could be heading for!).

Comparing the Oscar slate to the year's top 10 box office earners (slightly down from last year), it's pretty clear that Americans were mostly looking for a distraction at the cinema. (Same as it ever was.) Sinners did break through at #7, but other than that you have four kids movies, including two unasked-for "live action remakes," two mediocre superhero movies, the Wicked sequel, a submediocre Jurassic Park movie, and the third Avatar movie. The burgeoning overlap between box office and awards bodies I commented on a couple years ago seems to be disappearing. That's probably a bad thing, especially in this ever-changing (for the worse) entertainment landscape.

But enough doom and gloom. This past year was a great year for movies, up there with the Barbenheimer year of 2023. Let's celebrate my favorite movies of the year. As usual, we'll start with the supporting categories, with nominees listed in alphabetical order until Best Picture.

Gold = winner
^ = Oscar nominee