All right, y'all, let's get down to it. I've been writing about the films of 2024 basically the entire weekend, so it's time to bang out my usual Oscar predix. I'm not expecting to do very well, as this is probably the toughest year to predict in recent memory. I think there's really only a couple true locks in all the major categories and while there are certainly favorites in the rest, most of them are true toss-ups. So this should be wild. Let's get it on.
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
This *should* be a lock—my predicted winner Zoe Saldaña has won just about every precursor imaginable. However, her co-star Karla Sofía Gascón's recently unearthed racist tweets have doomed Emilia Pérez in pretty much every other category, and it wouldn't shock me to see Saldaña ultimately lose as well. But she has such a huge lead that she's likely safe. If an upset were to occur, Grande would likely benefit, with Rossellini as a darkhorse (even though she's in the movie for like five minutes and only has one memorable scene). I don't think anyone but Saldaña will win, but you never know with this particular ceremony. (P.S. This is a very weak year in this category.)
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Barbaro, 2) Jones, 3) Saldaña, 4) Grande, 5) Rossellini
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
The one guarantee tonight is that Kieran Culkin will win this category—he's won even more precursors than Saldaña (probably; I haven't actually done the research on that). He's a very deserving winner even though he's won countless awards for playing basically the same character in Succession. (No knock, though—Roman Roy is an incredible TV character.) This is a very strong field and I wouldn't be mad if any of the other nominees won. It's great to see Strong (Culkin's Succession co-star) nominated for his maniacally dedicated work, and Norton and Pearce are longtime favorites getting recognized for really great work. Borisov was new to me but Anora doesn't work without him.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Pearce, 2) Culkin, 3) Norton, 4) Strong, 5) Borisov
Okay, well, now I'm not enjoying this now that I have to make an actually difficult decision. This will come down to Madison and Moore, and I absolutely adore both performances. Both have won their share of precursors, but Demi Moore has won more of the ones that matter, and she has the stronger narrative with this being her first Oscar nomination in a 40+ year film career (versus Madison's still-nascent career). I'll be firmly rooting for Moore, although I'd be happy for Madison were she to win. Or darkhorse Torres, who was excellent as well. There are no scenarios where Erivo or Gascón win.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Moore, 2) Madison, 3) Torres, 4) Erivo, 5) Gascón
There's a growing contingent of prognosticators predicting Chalamet to win this, and I must confess I don't really get it. Yes, he is able to uncannily replicate Dylan's voice and guitar during the (many) musical numbers, but when he has to actually act as Dylan, the man, it's merely passable cosplay. And I recognize that there is some sort of AI controversy surrounding The Brutalist's Hungarian dialogue, but... come the fuck on. I'm about as anti-AI as you can get but I just can't be bothered by that shit. Adrien Brody is absolutely phenomenal in The Brutalist and is completely deserving of a second Oscar. But this is a heart-over-head pick and I'm more than prepared to be wrong here.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Brody, 2) Fiennes, 3) Domingo, 4) Stan, 5) Chalamet
This is the only other real lock of the major categories after Culkin—Peter Straughan should win this in a possible precursor for a Conclave Best Picture upset. Although none are particularly likely, there are probably more scenarios for Straughan losing than Culkin. If tonight is, for some reason, an A Complete Unknown night, Mangold and Cocks (elite law firm/porn star duo name) would benefit. And Nickel Boys likely has more passionate advocates than Conclave and could potentially emerge as the Benitez of the night's proceedings. (Inside Conclave joke, zing!) The Perez and Sing Sing scripts have no shot.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Straughan, 2) Bentley and Kwedar, 3) Ross and Barnes, 4) Mangold and Cocks, 5) Audiard
Although I wouldn't say it's a true lock, I fully expect Sean Baker to win his first Oscar—but maybe not his last tonight—for his Anora script. Although it won the Palme d'Or, Anora nevertheless entered Oscar season as somewhat as an afterthought before really coming on in the last month or so. And Baker has by all accounts impressed voters and audiences at each subsequent award he and his film have won. He's a personal favorite and I'll be heartily rooting for him tonight. If there's a spoiler it would likely be Eisenberg (another personal favorite). I'd absolutely love a Fargeat win but it seems like a (very) longshot along with Corbet and Fastvold. The September 5 team has no shot—although the film was very well written. Do note that a Baker loss here could be a disastrous signal for Anora's Best Picture chances.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Baker, 2) Fargeat, 3) Eisenberg, 4) Binder, Fehlbaum, and David, 5) Corbet and Fastvold
There are only two real contenders here: Baker and Corbet. Corbet has the Globe and the BAFTA while Baker has the all-important DGA (plus, implicitly, the PGA and WGA). Corbet had the early momentum but recent developments have made this Sean Baker's award to lose. I don't think he will. I've been a huge fan since The Florida Project (one of my favorite films of the past decade) and am glad to see him finally getting recognition from major awards bodies. That said, The Brutalist is incredible and I'll be quite happy for Corbet were he to pull off the "upset." (And he'd actually get my vote!) Don't see this category going down any other way, but a Fargeat win would be absolutely epic (and deserving). Again, as mentioned above, a Baker loss here bodes very poorly for Anora in Best Picture.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Corbet, 2) Fargeat, 3) Baker, 4) Mangold, 5) Audiard
Not all that long ago, I was sure that tonight would be The Brutalist's night. It won a trio of major categories at the Golden Globes (Actor, Director, and Motion Picture – Drama) and just had that air of prestige that often does well with the Academy. (Is that coding for "post-Holocaust epic"? Perhaps.) But other than those Globes wins, The Brutalist has mostly fallen by the wayside as two new contenders emerged: Anora and Conclave.
Clear frontrunner Anora has really come on strong of late, winning the big DGA, PGA, and WGA prizes in recent weeks. However, the one guild award it didn't win was the SAG, which Conclave picked up in a mild upset, complicating the Best Picture race. But I think the SAG win, impressive as it was, might've been too little, too late for a film most seem to like rather than love. I think more voters loved Anora, which helps a lot in the Academy's preferential ballot system. So I think Anora takes the big prize of the night—which would be no surprise at all if Baker were to win both Original Screenplay and Director.
At this point, I usually like to wax a bit poetic about the "big picture" and "what's at stake," ask "What would an Anora (or Conclave) win mean?" I'll give it my best shot, but this year seems similar to, say, 2021 or 2022 in that there's not a ton at stake. As great as Anora is (ditto The Brutalist) and as very good as Conclave is, I wouldn't see a win by either as anything truly notable or as presaging some new direction or trend in US cinema. Films that won the Palme d'Or like Anora did rarely win the Oscar—but Parasite did just that five years ago. It's also an independent film, which rarely win Best Picture—but Nomadland and CODA also did in the two years linked above. And Conclave? Conclave would be like every other good but not great prestige drama to win this category (for any number of recent examples, look at the Best Picture winners of the 2010s).
So, yeah, I like both movies and wouldn't get too bent out of shape were either to win (although I do definitely prefer Anora). At least there's a good amount of drama/unpredictability in the major categories, which isn't always the case. (See: last year.) And nothing that would really piss me off, thankfully. (Emilia Pérez sweep incoming!) Tonight should be an enjoyable, if ultimately not too consequential, ceremony. I'm just fine with that.
My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) The Substance, 2) Anora, 3) The Brutalist, 4) Dune: Part Two, 5) I'm Still Here, 6) Conclave, 7) Nickel Boys, 8) A Complete Unknown, 9) Wicked, 10) Emilia Pérez
As usual, we'll go LIGHTNING ROUND for the remaining categories.
Best International Feature Film
I'm Still Here (Brazil) – directed by Walter Salles
This has long been Emilia Pérez's award to lose, but I think the Gascón controversy—along with the fact that this is a very bad movie!—allows a surging, and excellent, I'm Not Here to swoop in.
My Non-Existent Vote: I'm Still Here
Best Animated Feature Film
The Wild Robot – directed by Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
Flow has a real shot here (it's also nominated for Best International Feature) and it would not surprise me at all if it wins here. But I'm going with the favorite.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
Best Documentary Feature
No Other Land – directed by Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, and Yuval Abraham
This one seems to be between No Other Land and Porcelain War, which are both about very timely topics (Israel/Palestine, Ukrainian War). Going with the favorite here as well.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
Best Cinematography
Lol Crawley – The Brutalist
Crawley is a big favorite and deservingly so for creating some of the most memorable images of the year (we've all seen the upside-down Statue of Liberty). Nosferatu and Dune are deserving longshots.
My Non-Existent Vote: Crawley
Best Editing
Nick Emerson – Conclave
For some reason the ACE Eddie awards aren't for another couple weeks, which makes this category tougher to predict. Emerson seems to be the favorite for the well-put-together Conclave.
My Non-Existent Vote: Dávid Jancsó – The Brutalist
Best Original Score
Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Blumberg is a sizeable favorite for his excellent Brutalist score, but I wonder if there's a "more is better" thing going on here, as Bertelmann's work is superior.
My Non-Existent Vote: Volker Bertelmann – Conclave
Best Original Song
"El Mal" – Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard (from Emilia Pérez)
The Emilia Pérez songs are mostly awful but this one is at least tolerable. But there is a very realistic possibility that Pérez misses out here due to Gascón and Diane fucking Warren wins her first Oscar.
My Non-Existent Vote: "Like a Bird" – Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada (from Sing Sing)
Best Sound
Tod Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, David Giammarco – A Complete Unknown
Dune seems to be the favorite, but the first one won this category and Unknown and Wicked are very well regarded. Dune won the sound editors guild award, while Unknown one the sound mixing award.
My Non-Existent Vote: Maitland, Sylvester, Caplan, Massey, and Giammarco
Best Visual Effects
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer – Dune: Part Two
Dune is a huge favorite here, and deservingly so—it's in another class entirely than the other nominees (although Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' effects were quite good). Wicked looked like total shit.
My Non-Existent Vote: Lambert, James, Salcombe, and Nefzer
Best Production Design
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales – Wicked
I did not at all like Wicked but will concede that the set designs were pretty good. (Unlike the visual effects!) The other nominees were also strong, especially Nosferatu.
My Non-Existent Vote: Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerová – Nosferatu
Best Costume Design
Paul Tazewell – Wicked
This might be the lock of the night. Wicked certainly has the "most" costumes, which is probably doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Not a super strong field overall (no Anora, Brutalist, Furiosa?).
My Non-Existent Vote: Linda Muir – Nosferatu
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli – The Substance
Okay, the one thing that might piss me off is if The Substance lost here—the work of this team is just so integral to the movie. The rest of the nominees are all solid, but this has to be The Substance.
My Non-Existent Vote: Persin, Guillon, and Scarselli
Best Live Action Short
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek
This was a really strong crop of live action shorts this year, but I was a bit surprised to see Silent as the favorite per prognosticators and oddsmakers. It was the least impactful to me. A Lien also has a shot.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Last Ranger – Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw
Best Animated Short
Wander to Wonder – Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
Conversely, the animated shorts were quite disappointing this year. They were mostly trite, boring, or weird. Wander (weird) is at least different enough to distinguish itself from the rest.
My Non-Existent Vote: Wander to Wonder
Best Documentary Short
I Am Ready, Warden – Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
*Checks internet.* Okay then, going with this one. As always, you'd have to pay me a significant sum of money to sit through these.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)
This is a strange year in the Oscar predicting game. I actually feel more confident in most of the down-ballot categories than the major ones. Last year, I got 17/23 with just one major category miss. I don't feel at all confident that I can beat or even tie that number this year. As far as what I'll be rooting for, Demi Moore and Sean Baker are at the top of my list, as well as an I'm Still Here upset over Emilia Pérez in International Feature. Oh, and an out-of-nowhere win for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for the Challengers score. (How was that not nominated??) Happy Oscar night, y'all!
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