No Dramatics: My 2021 Oscars Predictions

In the past two years, we've seen perhaps the worst Best Picture winner since Crash, and the most surprising—and satisfying—Best Picture winner since Moonlight. (Neither of which I actually predicted, for those following along at home.) This year, I'm not expecting anything nearly so dramatic. Most of the major categories seem either decided or between acceptable options—and the Best Picture category is refreshingly free of turds in the punch bowl. This year's dookiest entry—Mank—makes Green Book and Jojo Rabbit look like... well, not Citizen Kane, but, I dunno, something inoffensive like Me and Orson Welles. I don't think there's anything that could happen at this year's ceremony that would make me as apoplectic as The King's Speech beating The Social Network or Green Book beating Roma. Even an out-of-nowhere Mank win would get no more than a bemused shrug from me. So let's see what AMPAS has in store for us this year, starting, as is tradition, with the supporting performances.

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

Early on during awards season, this award looked first Seyfried's then Bakalova's to lose. But Youn Yuh-jung seems to have this one in the bag after National Board of Review, BAFTA, and SAG wins. (The Golden Globes winner, Jodie Foster, wasn't even nominated here.) Youn delivers a marvelous performance in a different league than most of the other nominees—only Colman's comes close, and I'd still give my non-existent vote to Youn (duh, see below). Glad to see that the astounding amount of talented South Korean filmmakers and actors are finally starting to get Academy recognition.

My Non-Existent Vote: Youn

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami...

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

This one is even more settled than Supporting Actress—Daniel Kaluuya has won more precursors than Youn, adding the Golden Globes to the trifecta Youn won. Kaluuya, a previous Best Actor nominee for Get Out, delivers a fiery performance as slain Black Panther Fred Hampton in Judas, which apparently did not have a lead actor (Stanfield's nomination here is laughable; he's the clear lead). Odom and Cohen also made my fake Oscars (post forthcoming) field, and Raci gave an unflashy but memorable performance worthy of a nomination. But all will be applauding for Kaluuya come tonight.

My Non-Existent Vote: Kaluuya

Best Actress

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Ah, finally a category with some drama! There's a case to be made, I think, for every nominee but Kirby (the standard "happy to be nominated" nominee). Day made a splash with her surprise upset at the Golden Globes; I don't think you can count her completely out, but she hasn't won any other precursor, so she's probably still somewhat of a longshot. You can never count out McDormand, a two-time winner here (who also won the BAFTA this year) and the anchor of the Best Picture frontrunner; I absolutely would not be surprised to hear her named called tonight. But I think this is between Mulligan and Davis. Mulligan has the National Board of Review; Davis has the more important SAG. This race is really too close to call, but Carey Mulligan hasn't won before, while previous winner Davis has so little screentime, so I'm going with her as the most likely winner. Absolutely nothing would surprise me in this category, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Mulligan

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Gary Oldman – Mank

Steven Yeun – Minari

I was going to call this the biggest lock of the night for Chadwick Boseman (R.I.P.) and his searing performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. But I'm starting to hear rumblings that Hopkins (very good in a film I liked a lot more than I expected) and maybe even Ahmed (who'd get my vote) could upset here. I don't think it'll happen, but the door is apparently at least cracked open a little. First-time nominee Yeun (sensational) and Mank himself round out the field and have no shot of winning. Replace Oldman with the egregiously robbed Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods and this would have been the strongest Best Actor field in recent memory.

My Non-Existent Vote: Ahmed

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sacha Baron Cohen, et al. – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller – The Father

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

Kemp Powers – One Night in Miami...

Ramin Bahrani – The White Tiger

This is the other major category that doesn't seem quite settled yet. I don't think any of these nominees can quite be counted out, although I admit I'd be surprised to see Miami... or Tiger win here. (Although both are excellent and would get no protest from me.) Of the remaining three, Borat actually won the WGA, and Father won the BAFTA. Nomadland hasn't really won any major precursors (just the Critic's Choice), but the Academy is its own beast, and I could easily see Nomadland becoming the big winner of the night, so I'm going with Chloé Zhao here—but this is my least confident choice in the major categories. Watch out for Borat or Father here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Bahrani

Best Original Screenplay

Will Berson and Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

Abraham Marder and Darius Marder – Sound of Metal

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

This one seems all but sewn up—Emerald Fennell should win an Oscar for her debut feature. (Fuck me, right?) Promising Young Woman is bold, it's topical, and it's exceedingly original (which is, I mean, in the name of this category). There are a few spoiler options: Judas is also bold and topical, Minari is lovely with a backstory that's easy to root for, and Chicago is Sorkin, a previous winner. I don't think Metal has much of a shot (and it's a better premise than actual screenplay). But I wouldn't count on an upset here; Fennell should take the statue as the first female winner since Diablo Cody.

My Non-Existent Vote: Fennell

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

David Fincher – Mank

Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

I'll be honest—I don't know what Fincher and Vinterberg are doing here. Vinterberg will be a random curio you'll come across on Wikipedia in a few years like Benh Zeitlin or Paweł Pawlikowski (only true Oscar heads will remember what they were nominated for), and absolutely no one will think about Mank ever again after the ceremony. Of the three top contenders, Fennell probably has no real shot with voters thinking Original Screenplay is enough, and Minari probably doesn't have enough top-category ooomph to put Chung over the top. So Chloé Zhao, who has only won the BAFTA, Globe, and DGA, is a near lock to take home the Oscar as widely predicted—and deservingly so.

My Non-Existent Vote: Zhao

Best Picture

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

You can probably cross Father, Judas, Mank, and Metal off your list—none of them has any real shot. But if the impossible happened, I wouldn't be mad if any of them won—even Mank, which is still a Well-Made Picture, and its worst sin is that it's kind of boring. I also don't think we'll hear Woman's or Chicago's names called at the end of the night—but, again, nothing would surprise me and I'd be fine if either of them were the big winner (especially Chicago, which is actually my favorite of this year's Best Picture nominees—although I'd still vote for Nomadland, if that makes sense). I think this'll come down to Minari and Nomadland, though. Honestly—and keep in mind that both of these films are in my 2020 top-10—these are two minor-key indie films that I don't think will exactly go down in the annals, Oscar win or no. They're of a piece with 2019's Roma—an outstanding work of an auteur at the peak of their powers, but without any real lasting cultural footprint. Like Roma, Minari is too personal and small in scale, and Nomadland is full of gorgeous compositions but might be too... artsy? to really grab the zeitgeist. And the Amazon faux-controversy might be making headlines right now, but it will quickly be forgotten. But it is the clear-cut favorite right now, so I think it's safe to say that Nomadland will be taking home the top prize at tonight's ceremony. It would be a deserving winner, but I can't say with confidence that we'll be looking back on it in, say, 2025 as any kind of cultural touchstone. And that's okay—at least it's not reductive bullshit, and there's no all-timer in this year's field. Not every year is going to have a Hall of Famer, and I'll settle for a Hall of Very Good over a potential debacle any year.

My Non-Existent Vote: Nomadland

Now, it's time for the LIGHTNING ROUND for the rest of the categories.

Best International Feature Film

Another Round (Denmark) – Thomas Vinterberg

This is the only nominee I've seen, although I've heard good things about the others. But this is the only one with a major category nominee (Best Director), so it seems like a pretty safe bet here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Another Round

Best Animated Film

Soul – Pete Docter and Dana Murray

This is also the only film in this category I've seen. It's foolish to bet against Pixar here, but I do get the feeling that Wolfwalkers has a legitimate shot. I just can't pull the trigger, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Soul

Best Documentary Feature

My Octopus Teacher – Pippa Ehrlich, Craig Foster, and James Reed

If you think I've seen any of these, you haven't been reading very closely in all the years I've been doing this (since 2010 on this blog). This seems to be the frontrunner, so let's go with it.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Short

Do Not Split – Charlotte Cook and Anders Hammer

Yeah, no, I didn't see any of these either. (You'd have to pay me so much money.) There doesn't seem to be any kind of consensus on this category amongst prognosticators, so this is a total guess.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Animated Short

If Anything Happens I Love You – Michael Govier and Will McCormack

This was the clear best of the bunch—the most poignant and taking on the most vital subject matter. Thankfully, the Pixar nominee (Burrow) was such a nothingburger that it doesn't seem to have a shot.

My Non-Existent Vote: If Anything Happens I Love You

Best Live Action Short

Two Distant Strangers – Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe

This was an *outstanding* field this year—any would be a deserving winner. But this timely, well made, and entertaining time-loop dark comedy is easily the frontrunner here. Watch it on Netflix.

My Non-Existent Vote: Two Distant Strangers

Best Original Score

Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste – Soul

Also nominated for Mank, Reznor and Ross seem like a pretty good bet for a second Oscar. Add Batiste's jazzy contributions and Soul is one of the easier calls on the board.

My Non-Existent Vote: Reznor, Ross, and Batiste

Best Original Song

"Speak Now" – Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr. (from One Night in Miami...)

I *really* want to pull the trigger on "Husavik"—the only nominee that's not just an end-credits number—but I can't see Eurovision (underrated!) beating out Miami..., so I'll go with the prestige picture here.

My Non-Existent Vote: "Husavik" – Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus, and Savan Kotecha (from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)

Best Cinematography

Joshua James Richards – Nomadland

This is an easy call—not only is Nomadland gorgeous, but it's a weak group of nominees. News of the World is second-best, Mank has the B&W novelty factor, and Judas and Chicago are nothing special.

My Non-Existent Vote: Richards

Best Editing

Alan Baumgarten – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Really, any film but Woman could win this—Nomadland could pick up a bunch of awards, Metal has a lot of support, and Father might be the best of the bunch—but let's go with the ACE Eddie winner.

My Non-Existent Vote: Yorgos Lamprinos – The Father

Best Production Design

Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale – Mank

Hey, Mank might actually win an award! It'd be deserving in this category for its grand, detailed sets—including a recreation of Hearst Castle. Impressive stuff.

My Non-Existent Vote: Burt and Pascale

Best Costume Design

Ann Roth – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank is the only nominee other than Rainey with a major category nominee, and it won't win any of them, making Roth the clear favorite here. This might be the lock of the night.

My Non-Existent Vote: Alexandra Byrne – Emma.

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Or is this the lock of the night? Expect Rainey to sweep these two oft-linked categories—it's a high-profile film where costumes/fashion are an important part.

My Non-Existent Vote: Lopez-Rivera, Neal, and Wilson

Best Sound

Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés, and Michelle Couttolenc – Sound of Metal

Okay, okay, okay—THIS is actually the lock of the night. A film where sound is THE key element, and "sound" is even in the title? Sound of Metal is the surefire winner this newly merged category.

My Non-Existent Vote: Baksht, Becker, Bladh, Cortés, and Couttolenc 

Best Visual Effects

Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee, and Andrew Lockley – Tenet

Tenet is an overwhelming favorite here for its impressive and memorable VFX. It would be the third Christopher Nolan movie to win here (after Inception and Interstellar).

My Non-Existent Vote: Fisher, Jackson, Lee and Lockley

I did incredibly well last year, call 20/24 winners. Unfortunately, I missed on the top two categories—afraid the Academy wouldn't go for Parasite, I called Sam Mendes and 1917 for Director and Picture. Oh well—I was more than happy with the result. I don't think I'll equal that total this year, with four categories I'm unsure of and at least 1-2 surprises. I'd settle for 18/23 (one fewer category!) and 6/8 of the major categories. There's less than five hours to go. I guess I should get to finishing my fake Oscars post! Let's see if I can get it in under the wire.