Pandemic Cinema: My 2020 Fake Oscars

With the Oscars being delayed until April this year, that means it's been well over a year since my last fake Oscars blog post. At the time of that post, we were on the cusp of an unprecedented and joyously unexpected Picture/Director/Original Screenplay triumph for Parasite, my favorite movie of 2019. Of course, we were also on the cusp of a global pandemic that has irrevocably changed the world, including massive changes to the film industry. After COVID hit in March of last year, I only went to a movie theater twice the rest of 2020—two times over the summer to see Tenet (I wasn't going to miss that experience, COVID be damned). Both times, I was one of only maybe a dozen people in the whole auditorium. But with the worst of the pandemic (hopefully) behind us and the vaccine being rolled out (I've already had both of my shots!), I've already been to the theater several times in 2021 to see some awards contenders—and, obviously Godzilla vs. Kong and Mortal Kombat. But the theaters have been still mostly empty, the lobby a ghost town. I truly don't know if the movie theater industry will ever fully recover, which would be such a huge loss, even if it makes sense on a pragmatic level.

All of which is to say that my film viewing habits were dramatically different than they ever have been last year. I watched about the same number of new movies as I usually do (around 100), but, obviously most of them were watched at home. From the comfort of my couch. With the lights on. With my cell phone at arm's length. With the ability to pause and rewind. This clearly isn't the way all movies should be watched, and I greatly wish I was able to watch more movies in the dark, silent, reverent space of a movie theater. I wonder if some of the... slower movies I thought were just okay (Mank and First Cow come to mind) would have made a bigger impact on me had I seen them in a theater. Another strange, unexpected impact is that I remember virtually nothing about the score of many of the films I saw—another casualty to home viewing. (For that reason, I won't be including the Best Score category I usually do. Maybe next year.)

In spite of all this, 2020 was still a pretty strong year for movies—a variegated, singular, strange year for movies, but a strong one nonetheless. My pandemic cinema top 10 has movies big and small (even if most movies seemed small this year), funny and serious (the best are a mix of both), theatrical and streaming. In other words, not too far off from a normal year for movies (especially with streaming movies becoming more and more common). And I'm just as excited to write this blog post as I would be in any other year. So let's get to it, longer-than-normal preamble out of the way. We'll start, as the real thing does, with the supporting performances. (Obviously, there may be mild spoilers for any of the films discussed below.)

Gold = winner

^ = nominated for a real Oscar

* = won a real Oscar

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7^

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah*

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami...^

Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Michael Stuhlbarg – Shirley

AMPAS didn't do too bad with this category, for the most part. The only two who missed the cut in my field were Paul Raci in Sound of Metal and Lakeith Stanfield in Judas. I quite liked Metal and thought Raci was very good, but I have to admit I didn't see anything Oscar-worthy in his unadorned performance. (Perhaps it was too naturalistic for me?) I said "for the most part" above because nominating Stanfield here is laughable—he's a he clear lead, and I believe he was even promoted as such in the lead-up to the nominations. AMPAS gonna AMPAS. (I also didn't see the hype in his just-fine performance.) But my field includes three actual Oscar nominees, including the winner, so let's start with them.

• Daniel Kaluuya was the frontrunner for the Oscar just about all awards season, and his win was one of the few unexpected results in the main categories on Sunday night. In his performance as slain Black Panther Fred Hampton, he balanced the fiery passion of Hampton's speeches with a tough tenderness in his scenes with Dominique Fishback as his girlfried, Deborah Johnson. Some of the speech scenes are just chill-inducing (and a built-in Oscar reel as well). The movie as a whole was more like, not love, for me—it's a relatively traditional biopic, which don't typically do it for me—but Kaluuya is absolutely sensational in it and easily snags a nomination here.
• His closest competition for the real statue was likely Sacha Baron Cohen, who at one point looked like the frontrunner here. Like everyone else in this category (unusual for me; see below), he erstwhile Borat also plays a historical figure: activist and Chicago 7 member Abbie Hoffman. I liked Sorkin's film (a lot) more than most, and Cohen's acerbic hippie-cum-agitator was a charismatic presence, delivering several Sorkin zingers with zest. He was the last name in my field, with stiff competition from Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Will Patton (Minari), Eli Goree (One Night in Miami...), and, yes, J.K. Simmons (Palm Springs).
• Speaking of Miami..., Aaron Burr himself also makes my field for his outstanding turn as Sam Cooke in Regina King's fictionalized meeting of Black leaders in the 1960s. Goree as Cassius Clay and Aldis Hodge as Jim Brown were both very good, but Leslie Odom Jr.'s scenes across from Kingsley Ben-Adir's Malcolm X put his performance on another level. So, too, does his singing, which provides some of the true highlights of the film (especially that a cappella scene). He seems a likely bet to someday add the O to his EGOT (he's already got the G and the T). Maybe a feature adaptation of Hamilton?
• That leaves us with two new nominees. The first is Cohen's Chicago 7 costar and previous Oscar winner, Mark Rylance. I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of him winning for Bridge of Spies (although I have been meaning to revisit that one), but I was won over right away by his portrayal of Bill Kunstler, a perfect balance of courtroom theatrics and world-weariness, and he's responsible for at least as many great moments as Cohen. The stage and screen veteran takes to Sorkin's material with aplomb and delivers a stirring performance that's among the best of the year. I'd have nominated him over Cohen (if there was only going to be one nominee from Chicago 7).
• My final nominee seems to have been largely forgotten by the time Oscar season came around, but this blog never forgets Michael Stuhlbarg, who always makes everything he's in better. In Shirley, he has the unenviable task of playing opposite a completely dialed-on Elisabeth Moss. He more than holds his own as a bemused, rather nefarious husband to Moss's eponymous Shirley Jackson—a feat not many actors could match. He doesn't get a ton of screentime, but he's absolutely magnetic in every scene he's in. How he hasn't at least been nominated for an Oscar yet in his career is beyond me (he was robbed for Call Me By Your Name, yo), but there is no such injustice here.

This was a tough category for me to decide on, and it actually came down to the two nominees who weren't nominated for the real award: Rylance and Stuhlbarg. Rylance had the showier performance in a movie I liked a lot more than Shirley, but I found myself thinking a lot more about Michael Stuhlbarg's performance than Rylance's, so he takes the fake statue here.

Best Supporting Actress

Olivia Colman – The Father^

Elizabeth Debicki – Tenet

Han Ye-ri – Minari

Youn Yuh-jung – Minari*

Helena Zengel – News of the World

Unlike the category above, none of these actresses played real-life figures. But similar to Supporting Actor, I didn't take too much exception to the Oscar field this year. Amanda Seyfried was never not going to be nominated for Mank, and she gives a solid performance in a film that didn't quite have the awards-season impact that it seemed destined for. I expected to hate Hillbilly Elegy for a number of reasons, but I wound up just not liking it very much. Glenn Close was a convincing hillbilly grandma, but I don't see anything nomination-worthy there. Ditto, honestly, for Maria Bakalova—the Giuliani stuff is certainly incredible, and I usually ride for comedic performances, but I think I'm just missing something here. She's good, not great.

• We'll again start with the real-life nominees. The Father was one of the final main category nominees I watched this year, and Olivia Colman easily snagged a nomination in a category I was honestly struggling to fill. Her aggrieved and grieving daughter to Anthony Hopkins's titular Father is a masterclass in subtle reactions and minute facial expressions. It's a wonderfully minor-key performance and a perfect counterbalance to Hopkins's fireworks. I wasn't expecting to like the film as much as I did, and Colman is a huge reason why. Although she didn't win on Sunday, I could easily see her winning a second statue someday soon.
• In a widely expected result (again, one of the few in the main categories) Youn Yuh-jung became the first Korean performer to win an Oscar. Like Close, she also a foul-mouthed grandmother—although Youn's performance was far superior in a far better film. Youn doesn't arrive until about halfway through the film, but she quickly becomes a central character, a key source of humor and drama both, with mischievous eyes that quickly become deadened after a stroke. But her humanity still shines through, even as she makes a tragic mistake late in the third act. It's an indelible performance, and a more-than-worthy Oscar winner. Youn's speech was also among the best of the night—perhaps the very best.
• While I was glad to see Youn nominated, I was confused as to why her costar and onscreen daughter, Han Ye-ri, missed the cut. Her exasperated wife to Steven Yeun's obstinate husband is such a lovely, wounded performance, and Han has no shortage of Oscar reel scenes. (Granted, most of them are arguments with Yeun's character.) Youn's nomination is well deserved and (hopefully) a game-changer, but the Academy has missed out on nominating Parasite's Cho Yeo-jeong and Lee Jung-eun, The Handmaiden's Kim Min-hee and Kim Tae-ri, and, now Han. Let's hope more international performances (not just South Korean) are considered moving forward.
• The final two nominees to make my field are both good bets to garner a nomination in the future. That might sounds ridiculous to say about a 12-year-old, but Helena Zengel just radiates rare star quality even at such a young age. Just like Saoirse Ronan before her, Zengel already looks like an acting powerhouse in the making with keenly expressive eyes and a polished screen presence—she already more than holds her own opposite Tom friggin' Hanks. I don't typically go for child performers here in my fake awards, but 1) it was kind of a weaker year for supporting actress, and 2) she was that good. (Side note: Alan Kim also gave a fantastic child performance in Minari.)
• I had a hard time picking my final nominee here (actually, my final two nominees). I considered each of the three actual Oscar nominees, as well as Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (who just feels more like a supporting performance to me), and Adèle Haenel in Deerskin (a movie you'll be hearing about more below). But finally I just said "fuck it" and went with the latest Nolan Problemwife, Elizabeth Debicki. Tenet's weakness is its script, and the writing for Debicki's character is especially lacking—but that doesn't mean she doesn't give a good performance. Debicki has been a favorite of mine for a while, and she makes the most of a poorly written character, imbuing her abused wife with real pathos and verve, which is good enough to take the final slot in my field.

I considered each of the first three names above here—Colman, Youn, and Han. Any of them would be a worthy winner: Colman's consummate internality, Youn's enduring humanity, Han's guarded fierceness. In an upset, I went with Han Ye-ri, who imbued what could have been a forgettable wife role across from a Best Actor nominee with something remarkable.

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal^

Jean Dujardin – Deerksin

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round

Steven Yeun – Minari^

There are a couple of names conspicuously missing from my field here: the would-be posthumous Oscar winner Chadwick Boseman (R.I.P.) for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and surprise winner Anthony Hopkins for The Father. (I did not consider Gary Oldman's awards-baity performance in Mank. He's... fine, I guess.) Both deliver outstanding performances, don't get me wrong—but they're also of the Capital-A Acting variety, which doesn't tend to resonate with me. Their performances are almost too technically sound to where they seem less an act of organic creation and more of a calculated spectacle. That both roles originated on the stage rather than the screen is unsurprising. Both are deserving nominees and I have no qualms with Hopkins winning the Oscar (I'd have voted for him over Boseman, too), but they narrowly missed the cut here. (Note: I also strongly considered Kingsley Ben-Adir as Malcolm X in Miami...)

• I'll start with the obvious: Delroy Lindo was the biggest main category snub on nomination morning. Once considered a shoo-in, Lindo had several factors working against him: his film was an early-year release, it was on Netflix, and, well, he's black. But how his raw, powerful, rageful performance in the latest Spike Lee joint was overlooked for a sweaty, ho-hum performance by a recent winner (it was definitely Oldman that made it over him) is beyond me. Imagine watching Lindo reckon with a lifetime of pain and internalized guilt in the jungles of Vietnam and deciding to nominate Oldman drinking his way through cocktail parties and, uh "writing." I just can't—and, in fact, did not, Mank you very much.
• Let's continue with the other new names in this field. Jean Dujardin, another previous Oscar winner for a movie I haven't thought about in years (The Artist) was an easy inclusion here for a very different movie than the one he won for. Not a ton of people seem to have seen Deerskin, the latest from Rubber auteur Quentin Depieux (it's on HBO Max!), but this deeply weird story about a man who becomes obsessed with a possibly supernatural deerskin jacket was one of my favorites of last year. It's anchored by totally committed performance from Dujardin, who plays it almost completely straight—every beat, every tic is played perfectly as the movie—and Dujardin—successfully treads a very fine line between darkness and comedy.
• The other new name is Mads Mikkelsen, who has always been a tough actor to read for me. He's mostly known for his villainous roles in his English-language performances (Hannibal, Casino Royale, Dr. Strange, etc.), as well as several B-movie type roles. So his performance as a high school teacher going through a kind of midlife crisis was something of a new side of Mikkelsen to me. Another Year is a charming and, ahem, soberingly humanistic dramedy, and Mikkelsen nails it as he slurs his way through his drinking "experiment" that's a stand-in for decades of regret and weariness—all of which plays across his face in what is actually a rather restrained performance. Except for the very ending, which is one of the best of the year—joyful, exuberant, freeing, and a perfect showcase for this new-to-me side of Mikkelsen.
• Either of the two actual Oscar nominees in my field would be a legitimate contender in most years—and both arguably should have received nominations before. Riz Ahmed was clearly deserving of a Supporting Actor nomination for Nightcrawler, but there was no denying him this year for his performance as a heavy metal drummer who suddenly, inexplicably, starts to go deaf. Ahmed's performance is manic and urgent, with a barely restrained torrent of anger coursing through his every line, every mannerism. But there's also a tenderness to it that becomes more pronounced as the film goes on. I know this was Ruben's story, but I wish the girlfriend character had been a bit better written to give their scenes a little more impact—but that's not Ahmed's fault (and his scenes with Raci are excellent). He'll undoubtedly be back in this field, both in real life and on this blog.
• That leaves us with Steven Yeun, who was never a serious Oscar contender for his coolly villainous turn in Burning (although he should have been). He gets his comeuppance this year for a very different performance in the eminently lovely Minari. In Burning, Yeun is detached and debonair, a slick and aloof possible murderer (man, I need to rewatch that one). Here, he is a prideful and determined working-class father, furious at the world that has held him back but unafraid to challenge the status quo. His resilience is palpable in every scene, even as he nearly ruins the very family he is trying to save. It's a complex role, but Yeun is more than up to the challenge and plays off each of his castmates—even and especially the child actors—perfectly. Although the Academy dropped the ball with Lindo, at least they got it right with Ahmed and Yeun, the first two Asian men to be nominated in this category.

This came down to the two actual nominees and the snubbed Lindo. They all had incredible performances and there are no real losers here. But Delroy Lindo would not be denied for his muscular-yet-vulnerable turn in the latest Spike Lee joint. I hope this respected veteran gets another role like this someday soon and finally breaks through with a much-deserved Oscar nomination.

Best Actress

Julia Garner – The Assistant

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman^

Frances McDormand – Nomadland*

Elizabeth Moss – The Invisible Man/Shirley

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman^

Last year, I didn't have any Best Actress nominees in common with the actual field, so we're come a long way in a year-plus. And the two nominees I left out of my field are both deserving enough. I mentioned Davis's performance above—she isn't even on the screen for 1/3 of Ma Rainey, and her performance also falls into the Acting category I talked about with Boseman and Hopkins. She's very good, though, and deserving of a nomination if you truly think hers is a lead performance. Andra Day is also great, but it's another biopic, which, again, I almost never go for. Just looking back a few years, there's maybe only one or two such performances among my nominees each year (except for Supporting Actor this year, which seems to be an aberration). I just prefer original characters, or at least performances that aren't mere impressions (not that Day's falls into that category, for the most part). But onto my actual nominees.

• Carey Mulligan (who somehow only has one previous nomination) entered the Oscars as the co-frontrunner with Davis for her performance in the divisive Promising Young Woman. I'll get to the film itself later on, but there's nothing divisive about Mulligan's performance—she's really fucking good. Working within the confines of a script that does make some missteps (but one that I still really like!), Mulligan delivers a supremely assured, multilayered performance. She effortlessly flits between personas—daughter and schemer, girlfriend and fuckdoll, prey and predator. It's like she has a grab bag of those comedy and drama masks, and she always chooses the perfect one for each scene. It's impressive work that would've earned my Oscar vote had I had one. Now 0-for-2 on Oscar night, is Mulligan going to become the next Amy Adams (herself the next Glenn Close)?
• Frances McDormand entered Sunday seemingly a distant third in the actual Best Actress race but exited the night with a third Oscar. You can't say she wasn't deserving of the win—although you absolutely can say her acceptance speech left much to be desired. In one of the best films of the year, McDormand gives a mostly downtuned performance, her taciturn Fern is a long way from the loquacious Marge Gunderson and the indignant Mildred Hayes. She spends a good chunk of the film by herself, grappling with the twin adversaries of grief and her crushing socioeconomic reality. It's a marvelous, convincing performance (reportedly, many of the actual nomads who appear in the film had no idea she was an actress)—better than Mildred but maybe not quite on the same level as Marge.
• Vanessa Kirby was a late addition to this field, as I only watched Pieces of a Woman a couple nights before the Oscars. I was considering names like Christin Milioti, Rosamund Pike, and even Jessie Buckley—even though I hated her film—before Kirby swooped in. I liked but didn't love Woman overall—it never quite lived up to the promise of that long take, and the pacing got a bit wonky—but Kirby was magnificent, operating on a level well above her talented castmates (including Ellen Burstyn and Shia LaBeouf). Whereas Burstyn and LaBeouf—and the film itself at times—ratcheted the intensity level up a bit too high, too often (tarnishing believability, to me), Kirby nailed every beat, reigning in and cranking up her emotions as needed for each scene. The only things I can remember her from prior to this are action franchise movies (M:I and F&F), so this was a pleasant surprise. Looking forward to both more dramatic and franchise roles from her.
• Julia Garner is another name I had only passing familiarity with prior to this year, really only recognizing her from the Waco miniseries (which was great—and she in it), plus a couple smaller films (Martha Marcy May Marlene and We Are What We Are). But she was a revelation in The Assistant—it's a shame the Academy wasn't able to find room for her in an admittedly crowded field. Perhaps the film hit a bit too close to home? Garner plays a, well, assistant to an unnamed and unseen Hollywood Exec that's clearly meant to be Harvey Weinstein. Most of the film is the day-to-day minutiae of being a Hollywood assistant: answering phones, setting up meetings, getting lunch, etc. But slowly, surely, Garner realizes she's actually aiding and abetting a serial predator. Her transformation from (not quite) blissfully ignorant to remorseful conspirator to taking the first timid steps toward action is a heartbreaking sight to behold. It's a quietly big performance in a terrifyingly quiet movie and portends big things for its star and writer-director, Kitty Green, both (more on her below).
• The last name here is hardly a new one—Elisabeth Moss won on this blog last year for Her Smell. She's almost as good this year in two roles: horror remake The Invisible Man and literary biopic Shirley. (I make the rules for these fake Oscars, so I'm nominating her for both.) In Shirley, she plays more of a supporting role (like Davis) to Odessa Young's lead, but I'm lumping her striking, seething turn here because I can. She does chew the scenery a bit, but her performance is so fervent that it works. She dials things down a bit for Invisible, but not too much—she's still playing a woman everyone thinks is crazy because she claims her dead ex-boyfriend is somehow stalking her. That fear and incredulity are etched onto every expression and gesture that gradually turns into a kind of gleeful insanity as she figures out what's really been happening. Invisible was an unexpected early-year delight, and Moss's performance stuck with me all year.

Any one of these ladies could have won here. We've got two up-and-comers who will likely be back (Garner and Kirby), two established stars at or near their prime (Moss and Mulligan), and a decorated veteran (McDormand). Moss and McDormand were hot on her heels, but the winner here is Carey Mulligan for her dazzling, rangy performance in a complicated role.

Best Screenplay

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman*

Kitty Green – The Assistant

Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Paul de Meo, and Kevin Willmott – Da 5 Bloods

Andy Siara – Palm Springs

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7^

Like last year, I'm eschewing doing two separate screenplay categories. I just generally don't find adapted screenplays to be all that impressive—unless it's something difficult to adapt (Inherent Vice), adds sufficiently original content (The Social Network), or isn't *really* adapted from anything concrete (Before Midnight). Most of this year's Adapted Screenplay nominees don't fit these molds—we've got two books (Nomadland and The White Tiger) and two plays (Miami... and The Father). The Borat sequel, of course, isn't really adapted from anything—but it's also mostly improvised. Of the actual Original Screenplay nominees, I didn't really consider Judas, since it's a fairly straightforward retelling of true events. Minari and Sound of Metal were on my shortlist (along with Another Round and Soul), but I felt other aspects of the filmmaking were more the strengths of those two films rather than their screenplays. I did nominate the two scripts that entered Sunday as the likely Oscar frontrunners, so let's start there.

• Like I mentioned above, Emerald Fennell's Promising Young Woman script makes some missteps. The Nina character—the actual victim of the inciting sexual assault—is basically an afterthought, and I thought some of the supporting characters (the mother and the actual rapist, for two examples) were rather poorly drawn. And the ending drew the ire of Film Twitter—why should Cassie trust the police to do *anything* right? I see and mostly agree with those complaints, but, to me, they don't detract too much from Fennell's achievement here. This is a bold, vibrant take on one of THE defining cultural reckonings of this young century, an outrageous, keyed-up revenge fantasy that deftly avoids the easy and expected. I'll forgive it a misstep or two in exchange for moments like the first time Cassie "sobers up" with one of the guys who took her home (unfortunately massively spoiled by the trailer) or Bo Burnham's reaction when presented with evidence of his involvement with Nina's assault. Fennell would have gotten my real Oscar vote if I'd had one.
• Close behind would be Aaron Sorkin. Sorry not sorry, but I'm always a sucker for his verbal pyrotechnics. I adore both Sports Night and Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip (I know, I know)—although I've weirdly never seen The West Wing. I count The Social Network among my favorite films of all time, and I quite liked Moneyball and Molly's Game as well (I haven't actually seen any of his early films and thought Steve Jobs was just okay). So I, of course, loved Chicago 7, idealistic and melodramatic warts and all. Sorkin perfectly matched each actor to their character: Rylance delivering courtroom monologues, Cohen slinging zingers, Jeremy Strong's stoned musings, Frank Langella bellowing, Yahya Abdul-Mateen's impassioned pleas. I even didn't hate Eddie Redmayne in this, which might be the most impressive achievement of Sorkin's career. Film Twitter might have had a meltdown, but I wouldn't at all have been mad had he pulled off the upset.
• On the topic of being mad, how the fuck was Spike Lee (and company) not nominated for an Oscar? I wonder if the film's production history worked against it a bit (not to mention the other factors mentioned above)—the project was in development for a while before Lee took over, so maybe some didn't view it as a true Spike Lee joint. The premise from the original writers is great—Vietnam vets returning to the jungle to recover treasure they buried during the war—but Lee transformed it into a bawdy, ballsy exploration of race and war and how they intersect even today. The moment you see Lindo's character don a MAGA hat, for example, you know you're watching a true Spike Lee joint. It's a damn shame that Bloods only earned one Oscar nomination (for Terence Blanchard's excellent score—I do remember that one). Bummed to see Spike relegated by the Academy once again, but excited to see where his career resurgence goes from here.
• That leaves us with two new names in this field. One is Kitty Green, whose The Assistant functions as almost a sister film to Promising Young Woman. But instead of an exaggerated, hyperstylized dark comedy, Green's film is small and quiet—but one that's harrowing in its mundanity. It's a study in what *not* to depict on screen, and whose stories are really worth telling. Green could easily have made Garner's boss an on-screen character, or explored the story of one of his victims (a couple of whom only briefly appear). But pieces of shit like Weinstein don't need to be shown to depict their evil, and we know the stories of victims of people like him all too well. Instead, Green's decision to tell the story of a lowly assistant—herself a tangential victim, even if she was never assaulted herself—is genius. It's a story of how small evils left unchecked allow the large evils to flourish, and one that shows how the impact crater of abusers is so much larger than we could ever imagine. Uh, not bad for a narrative debut feature.
• The final name might seem a bit surprising—but only if you haven't seen Palm Springs, one of my very favorite movies of the year. This hilarious, smart, and truly heartening picture is also the debut feature of Andy Siara, whose previous claim to fame seems to have been as a writer on the canceled AMC series Lodge 49. I've never seen it, but if Siara is involved, I'm interested in checking it out. (It also stars Wyatt Russell, whom I love in everything I've seen him in.) Or I could just rewatch Palm Springs again—it's the only 2020 movie besides Tenet that I've already watched twice. (Edit: I did rewatch Chicago 7 after the Oscars on Sunday night. This was written beforehand.) It's just that... charming and bittersweet and thoughtful and truthful. And more than that, you just don't want to stop hanging out with the characters (especially important given that it's a time-loop movie). I seriously considered including Andy Samberg and Christin Milioti in my Actor/Actress fields, but I felt that Screenplay was the right place to highlight this movie. Siara (and co-creator and director Max Barbakow) created this sublime little loop in the desert of California—one that I can't wait to keep revisiting again and again down the line.

This is a really strong field, and any of the contenders would be a worthy winner. But I have to go with the screenplay that made me want to go back for a second helping right away, so Andy Siara takes the fake trophy here. I hope him and Barbakow have another project in the works—I'm 100% in on anything with a "from the creators of Palm Springs" tag.

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari^

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman^

Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

Christopher Nolan – Tenet

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland*

The Academy did a pretty good job overall this year, even with the strange decision to delay the Oscars into April. Every category this year has at least two nominees in common with the real deal, including three here (up from two last year). I didn't really consider Thomas Vinterberg or, especially, David Fincher here, though. I really liked Another Round, especially that ending, but nothing else really stuck out to me from a directorial standpoint. And I'm a huge David Fincher fan—I mentioned The Social Network above, and Zodiac is also one of the best films since 2000—but Mank is very meh. (More like Mehnk. Eh? Get it?) It was clearly a labor of love for Fincher, but other than a couple great dinner party scenes, it was pretty laborious for the rest of us, somehow boring *and* over-plotted. I honestly don't know why the Academy nominated him here, especially with at least one obvious replacement waiting in the wings.

• That would be, of course, Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods. I commented in my Oscar predictions post that if you replaced Gary Oldman with Bloods's Delroy Lindo, the Best Actor field would be as strong as it's been in years. I'll take it a step further here and just say that the Academy went with the wrong Netflix film—Da 5 Bloods was much more worthy of the support that Mank got. I don't know which is the biggest travesty—Oldman over Lindo or Fincher over Lee. (It's probably still Lindo over Oldman.) This is one of the things I dislike most about the Oscars—it makes me have irrational negativity toward perfectly decent films like The King's Speech, Green Book (it's not that bad!), and, now, Mank. But watching stolid, perfunctory awards bait consistently get industry accolades over much more accomplished, dynamic films like The Social Network, Roma, and, now, Da 5 Bloods is just infuriating. (I also hate that I have to lump in Fincher with *checks notes* Tom Hooper and Peter Farrelly.) Anyway, Bloods is even better than BlacKkKlansman, the Black war/heist movie we didn't know we needed, as visceral as it is vital. Keep 'em coming, Spike. (Until his next one, I might have to revisit Miracle at St. Anna, which Bloods reminded me of.)
• I can see why Christopher Nolan wasn't nominated for Tenet. His latest would-be blockbuster is somewhat louder and definitely dumber than than headier fare like Inception, easily the closest comparison in Nolan's oeuvre. But 2020 needed a loud, dumb blockbuster more than any other year on record, and Nolan delivered one of the finest examples of the form, one of the best popcorn movies in years in Tenet. It's much derided script deserves most of the flak it has gotten, but the line "Don't try to understand it. Feel it" couldn't be more apt. If you're overanalyzing Tenet's plot or bemoaning it's expository dialogue and not just taking in the spectacle... maybe you're just doing movies wrong. Now, maybe it's just because Tenet was the first movie I saw in theaters during the pandemic that I loved it as much as I did... but I had a huge, stupid grin on my face the entire run time—I think partially *because* of how loud and dumb it was. Like I mentioned above, I even went back for a second dose of inverted bullets, temporal pincer movements, and John David Washington and Robert Pattinson just living it up. Tenet is just a rip-roaring good time at the cinema, and I'm glad I got to experience it in a theater last year.
• The next two nominees are basically the exact opposite of Tenet's loud and dumb aesthetic—both Best Picture winner Nomadland and Minari are quiet, contemplative films meant to be seen on a random Wednesday afternoon with a theater full of polite olds. (I did actually see both in theaters, albeit at nighttime.) Of the two, I agree with the Academy that Nomadland and Chloé Zhao were the Best Picture and Director of 2020, respectively. That's now two years in a row where I agreed with the Oscar Director/Picture winners (of the actual nominees, that is). I haven't seen either of Zhao's first two features, but I was blown away by Nomadland—its rich quietude, its freespirited pacing, it's gorgeous cinematography (robbed at the Oscars, by the way), its sense of time and place. (No, I do not give a single shit about its drummed-up Amazon "controversy".) I have absolutely *no* idea how Zhao's aesthetic will translate to the MCU, but I know I'm excited to find out.
• Lee Isaac Chung's Minari was another awards-season film I didn't expect to like as much as I did. It looked somewhat... Sundance-y from the trailer, a subcategory of indie film that's generally not for me—simple, sentimental, slice-of-life. That's not to say that there isn't a charming simplicity about Chung's filmmaking style, or that Minari lacks sentimentality, or that this peek into a very specific time/culture/place wasn't worthwhile. But Chung resists going overboard on charm (which can be easy to do when child actors are involved), favors ambiguity over sentimentality, and paints a much more vivid picture than the typical slice-of-life movie. It's an exceedingly personal movie, but not so much so that it's not accessible or relatable. Minari is a remarkable achievement by a filmmaker who was all but set to quit the film industry. I'm glad he decided to give it one last shot, and we're all better off that he was able to get this made. I'm interested to see what he does next—perhaps he'll join Zhao in the MCU, or go to the rival DCEU? </saracasm>
• My final nominee came down to two women for the two very related films mentioned above—Fennell for Promising Young Woman and Green for The Assistant. This was maximal vs. minimal, showy vs. subtle, stylized vs. austere. I know that in filmmaking "more" doesn't always mean better—"more" acted, "more" edited, "more" directed. But in this case, I decided to go with that "more" and include Emerald Fennell in my field. I didn't necessarily love every decision she made or agree with every song choice, but I found her overall approach fascinating—the pop sensibility, the ethical murkiness, the audacious unsubtlety. Her approach certainly isn't for everyone, but it mostly worked for me, and I respect her willingness to be so polarizing. I'm curious to see how her aesthetic changes—if her aesthetic changes—as her career moves forward. Her next project will be well worth checking out, whatever it winds up being. (Please not, like, another Harley Quinn movie or something.)

This category was actually a fairly easy call for me. The only two nominees I really considered here were Lee and Zhao, and I had Chloé Zhao winning even before the Oscars. (Actually, pretty much everything besides Director and Picture was written before the ceremony. Just ran out of time!) Nomadland might not have been my #1 movie of the year (spoilers for below), but it would have got my vote for Best Picture anyway, and Zhao was head and shoulders above her peers this year.

Best Picture

Unlike the real Oscars, we'll actually end with Best Picture. (God, that was such a bizarre, miscalculated end to the ceremony that I will probably write something about someday.) As I've said my piece about most of these movies above, I'm just going to count down my top 10 (because 8 is a dumb number) to my #1 movie of 2020. I'll include a link to my Letterboxd review(s) of each movie if you want more of my (brief) thoughts.

10) The Assistant (Letterboxd review)

9) Promising Young Woman^ (Letterboxd review)

8) Sound of Metal^ (Letterboxd review)

7) Soul (Letterboxd review)

6) Minari^ (Letterboxd review)

5) Nomadland* (Letterboxd review)

4) Da 5 Bloods (Letterboxd review)

3) The Trial of the Chicago 7^ (Letterboxd reviews)

2) Palm Springs (Letterboxd reviews)

1) Tenet (Letterboxd reviews)

So there you have it. Neither of my top two were exactly Oscar fare (although Tenet did win Best Visual Effects). But Tenet was the only movie to make me brave the pandemic not once, but twice—it's the perfect popcorn movie in a year that truly needed one. And Palm Springs was the perfect comfort movie to watch at home curled up on your couch. They both made a terrible year infinitely more bearable—as did most of the rest of the movies I watched last year, even the bad ones. You can check out the complete pandemic cinema list, along with micro reviews, on Letterboxd.

I'm thankful for movies, and for you reading, whoever you are. I hope you found something in cinema that helped you get through 2020 like I did. Now, let's see what 2021 has in store.

No Dramatics: My 2021 Oscars Predictions

In the past two years, we've seen perhaps the worst Best Picture winner since Crash, and the most surprising—and satisfying—Best Picture winner since Moonlight. (Neither of which I actually predicted, for those following along at home.) This year, I'm not expecting anything nearly so dramatic. Most of the major categories seem either decided or between acceptable options—and the Best Picture category is refreshingly free of turds in the punch bowl. This year's dookiest entry—Mank—makes Green Book and Jojo Rabbit look like... well, not Citizen Kane, but, I dunno, something inoffensive like Me and Orson Welles. I don't think there's anything that could happen at this year's ceremony that would make me as apoplectic as The King's Speech beating The Social Network or Green Book beating Roma. Even an out-of-nowhere Mank win would get no more than a bemused shrug from me. So let's see what AMPAS has in store for us this year, starting, as is tradition, with the supporting performances.

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

Early on during awards season, this award looked first Seyfried's then Bakalova's to lose. But Youn Yuh-jung seems to have this one in the bag after National Board of Review, BAFTA, and SAG wins. (The Golden Globes winner, Jodie Foster, wasn't even nominated here.) Youn delivers a marvelous performance in a different league than most of the other nominees—only Colman's comes close, and I'd still give my non-existent vote to Youn (duh, see below). Glad to see that the astounding amount of talented South Korean filmmakers and actors are finally starting to get Academy recognition.

My Non-Existent Vote: Youn

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami...

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

This one is even more settled than Supporting Actress—Daniel Kaluuya has won more precursors than Youn, adding the Golden Globes to the trifecta Youn won. Kaluuya, a previous Best Actor nominee for Get Out, delivers a fiery performance as slain Black Panther Fred Hampton in Judas, which apparently did not have a lead actor (Stanfield's nomination here is laughable; he's the clear lead). Odom and Cohen also made my fake Oscars (post forthcoming) field, and Raci gave an unflashy but memorable performance worthy of a nomination. But all will be applauding for Kaluuya come tonight.

My Non-Existent Vote: Kaluuya

Best Actress

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Ah, finally a category with some drama! There's a case to be made, I think, for every nominee but Kirby (the standard "happy to be nominated" nominee). Day made a splash with her surprise upset at the Golden Globes; I don't think you can count her completely out, but she hasn't won any other precursor, so she's probably still somewhat of a longshot. You can never count out McDormand, a two-time winner here (who also won the BAFTA this year) and the anchor of the Best Picture frontrunner; I absolutely would not be surprised to hear her named called tonight. But I think this is between Mulligan and Davis. Mulligan has the National Board of Review; Davis has the more important SAG. This race is really too close to call, but Carey Mulligan hasn't won before, while previous winner Davis has so little screentime, so I'm going with her as the most likely winner. Absolutely nothing would surprise me in this category, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Mulligan

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Gary Oldman – Mank

Steven Yeun – Minari

I was going to call this the biggest lock of the night for Chadwick Boseman (R.I.P.) and his searing performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. But I'm starting to hear rumblings that Hopkins (very good in a film I liked a lot more than I expected) and maybe even Ahmed (who'd get my vote) could upset here. I don't think it'll happen, but the door is apparently at least cracked open a little. First-time nominee Yeun (sensational) and Mank himself round out the field and have no shot of winning. Replace Oldman with the egregiously robbed Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods and this would have been the strongest Best Actor field in recent memory.

My Non-Existent Vote: Ahmed

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sacha Baron Cohen, et al. – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller – The Father

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

Kemp Powers – One Night in Miami...

Ramin Bahrani – The White Tiger

This is the other major category that doesn't seem quite settled yet. I don't think any of these nominees can quite be counted out, although I admit I'd be surprised to see Miami... or Tiger win here. (Although both are excellent and would get no protest from me.) Of the remaining three, Borat actually won the WGA, and Father won the BAFTA. Nomadland hasn't really won any major precursors (just the Critic's Choice), but the Academy is its own beast, and I could easily see Nomadland becoming the big winner of the night, so I'm going with Chloé Zhao here—but this is my least confident choice in the major categories. Watch out for Borat or Father here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Bahrani

Best Original Screenplay

Will Berson and Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

Abraham Marder and Darius Marder – Sound of Metal

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

This one seems all but sewn up—Emerald Fennell should win an Oscar for her debut feature. (Fuck me, right?) Promising Young Woman is bold, it's topical, and it's exceedingly original (which is, I mean, in the name of this category). There are a few spoiler options: Judas is also bold and topical, Minari is lovely with a backstory that's easy to root for, and Chicago is Sorkin, a previous winner. I don't think Metal has much of a shot (and it's a better premise than actual screenplay). But I wouldn't count on an upset here; Fennell should take the statue as the first female winner since Diablo Cody.

My Non-Existent Vote: Fennell

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

David Fincher – Mank

Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

I'll be honest—I don't know what Fincher and Vinterberg are doing here. Vinterberg will be a random curio you'll come across on Wikipedia in a few years like Benh Zeitlin or Paweł Pawlikowski (only true Oscar heads will remember what they were nominated for), and absolutely no one will think about Mank ever again after the ceremony. Of the three top contenders, Fennell probably has no real shot with voters thinking Original Screenplay is enough, and Minari probably doesn't have enough top-category ooomph to put Chung over the top. So Chloé Zhao, who has only won the BAFTA, Globe, and DGA, is a near lock to take home the Oscar as widely predicted—and deservingly so.

My Non-Existent Vote: Zhao

Best Picture

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

You can probably cross Father, Judas, Mank, and Metal off your list—none of them has any real shot. But if the impossible happened, I wouldn't be mad if any of them won—even Mank, which is still a Well-Made Picture, and its worst sin is that it's kind of boring. I also don't think we'll hear Woman's or Chicago's names called at the end of the night—but, again, nothing would surprise me and I'd be fine if either of them were the big winner (especially Chicago, which is actually my favorite of this year's Best Picture nominees—although I'd still vote for Nomadland, if that makes sense). I think this'll come down to Minari and Nomadland, though. Honestly—and keep in mind that both of these films are in my 2020 top-10—these are two minor-key indie films that I don't think will exactly go down in the annals, Oscar win or no. They're of a piece with 2019's Roma—an outstanding work of an auteur at the peak of their powers, but without any real lasting cultural footprint. Like Roma, Minari is too personal and small in scale, and Nomadland is full of gorgeous compositions but might be too... artsy? to really grab the zeitgeist. And the Amazon faux-controversy might be making headlines right now, but it will quickly be forgotten. But it is the clear-cut favorite right now, so I think it's safe to say that Nomadland will be taking home the top prize at tonight's ceremony. It would be a deserving winner, but I can't say with confidence that we'll be looking back on it in, say, 2025 as any kind of cultural touchstone. And that's okay—at least it's not reductive bullshit, and there's no all-timer in this year's field. Not every year is going to have a Hall of Famer, and I'll settle for a Hall of Very Good over a potential debacle any year.

My Non-Existent Vote: Nomadland

Now, it's time for the LIGHTNING ROUND for the rest of the categories.

Best International Feature Film

Another Round (Denmark) – Thomas Vinterberg

This is the only nominee I've seen, although I've heard good things about the others. But this is the only one with a major category nominee (Best Director), so it seems like a pretty safe bet here.

My Non-Existent Vote: Another Round

Best Animated Film

Soul – Pete Docter and Dana Murray

This is also the only film in this category I've seen. It's foolish to bet against Pixar here, but I do get the feeling that Wolfwalkers has a legitimate shot. I just can't pull the trigger, though.

My Non-Existent Vote: Soul

Best Documentary Feature

My Octopus Teacher – Pippa Ehrlich, Craig Foster, and James Reed

If you think I've seen any of these, you haven't been reading very closely in all the years I've been doing this (since 2010 on this blog). This seems to be the frontrunner, so let's go with it.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Short

Do Not Split – Charlotte Cook and Anders Hammer

Yeah, no, I didn't see any of these either. (You'd have to pay me so much money.) There doesn't seem to be any kind of consensus on this category amongst prognosticators, so this is a total guess.

My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Animated Short

If Anything Happens I Love You – Michael Govier and Will McCormack

This was the clear best of the bunch—the most poignant and taking on the most vital subject matter. Thankfully, the Pixar nominee (Burrow) was such a nothingburger that it doesn't seem to have a shot.

My Non-Existent Vote: If Anything Happens I Love You

Best Live Action Short

Two Distant Strangers – Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe

This was an *outstanding* field this year—any would be a deserving winner. But this timely, well made, and entertaining time-loop dark comedy is easily the frontrunner here. Watch it on Netflix.

My Non-Existent Vote: Two Distant Strangers

Best Original Score

Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste – Soul

Also nominated for Mank, Reznor and Ross seem like a pretty good bet for a second Oscar. Add Batiste's jazzy contributions and Soul is one of the easier calls on the board.

My Non-Existent Vote: Reznor, Ross, and Batiste

Best Original Song

"Speak Now" – Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr. (from One Night in Miami...)

I *really* want to pull the trigger on "Husavik"—the only nominee that's not just an end-credits number—but I can't see Eurovision (underrated!) beating out Miami..., so I'll go with the prestige picture here.

My Non-Existent Vote: "Husavik" – Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus, and Savan Kotecha (from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)

Best Cinematography

Joshua James Richards – Nomadland

This is an easy call—not only is Nomadland gorgeous, but it's a weak group of nominees. News of the World is second-best, Mank has the B&W novelty factor, and Judas and Chicago are nothing special.

My Non-Existent Vote: Richards

Best Editing

Alan Baumgarten – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Really, any film but Woman could win this—Nomadland could pick up a bunch of awards, Metal has a lot of support, and Father might be the best of the bunch—but let's go with the ACE Eddie winner.

My Non-Existent Vote: Yorgos Lamprinos – The Father

Best Production Design

Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale – Mank

Hey, Mank might actually win an award! It'd be deserving in this category for its grand, detailed sets—including a recreation of Hearst Castle. Impressive stuff.

My Non-Existent Vote: Burt and Pascale

Best Costume Design

Ann Roth – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank is the only nominee other than Rainey with a major category nominee, and it won't win any of them, making Roth the clear favorite here. This might be the lock of the night.

My Non-Existent Vote: Alexandra Byrne – Emma.

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Or is this the lock of the night? Expect Rainey to sweep these two oft-linked categories—it's a high-profile film where costumes/fashion are an important part.

My Non-Existent Vote: Lopez-Rivera, Neal, and Wilson

Best Sound

Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés, and Michelle Couttolenc – Sound of Metal

Okay, okay, okay—THIS is actually the lock of the night. A film where sound is THE key element, and "sound" is even in the title? Sound of Metal is the surefire winner this newly merged category.

My Non-Existent Vote: Baksht, Becker, Bladh, Cortés, and Couttolenc 

Best Visual Effects

Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee, and Andrew Lockley – Tenet

Tenet is an overwhelming favorite here for its impressive and memorable VFX. It would be the third Christopher Nolan movie to win here (after Inception and Interstellar).

My Non-Existent Vote: Fisher, Jackson, Lee and Lockley

I did incredibly well last year, call 20/24 winners. Unfortunately, I missed on the top two categories—afraid the Academy wouldn't go for Parasite, I called Sam Mendes and 1917 for Director and Picture. Oh well—I was more than happy with the result. I don't think I'll equal that total this year, with four categories I'm unsure of and at least 1-2 surprises. I'd settle for 18/23 (one fewer category!) and 6/8 of the major categories. There's less than five hours to go. I guess I should get to finishing my fake Oscars post! Let's see if I can get it in under the wire.

2021 Oscar Nominations Predictions

 

As if this last year hasn't been strange enough, now we get the Oscar nominations in March. That means I get to make my nomination predictions and fill out my March Madness bracket in the same week... what a time to be alive. That also means it's been over a year since Parasite's upset win at last year's Oscars—perhaps the last truly good thing to happen in the world before COVID hit. The intervening year (-plus) in cinema has been an interesting one, with almost no one seeing movies in theaters (I saw Tenet twice over the summer and just a couple things so far this year) and everyone mostly watching films from their couch. No one really knows what kind of effect, if any, that will have on this year's Oscar field. So my annual predictions on the eve of nomination morning are even more poorly informed than usual. I did pretty well last year—38/44—but I don't think I'll come close to that this year. Let's start, as usual, with the screenplay categories and go from there. (Nominees are listed in approximate order of likelihood.)

^ = early winner prediction

* = haven't seen it

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland^

Ruben Santiago-Hudson – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Kemp Powers – One Night in Miami...

Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton – The Father*

Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern & Nina Pedrad – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

---

Other contenders:

Jonathan Raymond and Kelly Reichardt – First Cow

M.B. Traven, Rory Haines, and Sohrab Noshirvani – The Mauritanian*

Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies – News of the World*

There are always surprises on nomination morning, but I'm not expecting anything crazy here. The biggest surprise I can think of would be Borat missing out... but would that really be that shocking? Zhao, Santiago-Hudson, and Powers are all sure things, and Zeller and Hampton seem very likely as well for a film I haven't yet seen (and, honestly, would only watch if it were nominated). Borat seems solid for the fifth slot, especially with Cohen also likely to be nominated in Supporting Actor for a different film. But if voters elect to pass on it, it could be any of the other three (or something really cool that I don't even know about). First Cow was a critical darling, Maritanian is super topical, and News of the World is a Tom Hanks western, so all are strong contenders.

Wishful thinking: Leigh Whannell – The Invisible Man

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7^

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari*

Jack Fincher – Mank

Will Berson and Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah

---

Other contenders: 

Pete Docter, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers – Soul

Darius Marder and Abraham Marder – Sound of Metal

Andy Siara – Palm Springs

This category almost always has a surprise or two, and I'm expecting chaos here in the morning. I *think* the first three are locks, and I have a hard time seeing the Academy—changing although it is—skipping over a film like Mank, written by David Fincher's deceased father. And Judas seems to be coming on incredibly strong here late in this delayed Oscar season, so I think it sneaks in as the fifth nominee. But Pixar can never be counted out in this category, and Sound of Metal is very well regarded (for a reason: it's very good). I almost wouldn't care about the rest of the nominees if Palm Springs, one of my favorites of last year, got nominated, but I'm not holding my breath.

Wishful thinking: 

Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Kitty Green – The Assistant, Quentin Dupieux – Deerskin, Thomas Vinterberg and Tobias Lindholm – Another Round

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Olivia Colman – The Father*^

Youn Yuh-jung – Minari*

Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian*

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy*

---

Other contenders:

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Helena Zengel – News of the World*

This is the toughest category of them all to predict—and I've seen almost none of the contenders. I think—let's make that another *think*—Colman and Youn are locks, but after that, who knows. Foster seems to be coming on strong after a surprise Golden Globes win, so she seems like a safe bet. At one point or another in the race, Seyfried, Close, and Bakalova could all have been considered the frontrunner, but now it wouldn't surprise if any of the three missed out. I think it'll be Bakalova, whose Globes loss might have been a foreboding sign. Close—whose movie I have absolutely no interest in watching—is a sentimental favorite and could even win this thing, and Seyfried would be a deserving first-time nominee for a film I liked but didn't love. But watch out for Zengel—child actresses always do well in this category

Wishful thinking: Elizabeth Debicki – Tenet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah^

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami...

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Alan Kim – Minari*

---

Other contenders:

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Jared Leto – The Little Things

I'm not expecting a ton of craziness here. Kaluuya is the presumed frontrunner after his Globes win, Cohen is his potential foil, and Odom playing Sam Cooke on the heels of Hamilton are the easy top three. Boseman seems a good bet for two posthumous nominations, and he might wind up being the only major nom for Bloods (his role was too small for my tastes and wouldn't get my vote, though). The final nomination is totally up for grabs, however. Raci's performance is well regarded (although too subdued for my tastes), and Jared Leto somehow keeps getting nominated for things, so he wouldn't be a surprise. But Minari seems to have a ton of momentum, so I think the final slot will go to its child star. (I'll be seeing the film this week, which I'm really looking forward to.)

Wishful thinking: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Michael Stuhlbarg – Shirley

BEST ACTRESS

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman^

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman*

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday*

---

Other contenders:

Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy*

Rosamund Pike – I Care A Lot*

I don't see much room for any drama here. Mulligan, McDormand, and Davis are all locked in as the three main contenders. Mulligan is solidly the frontrunner right now, and I think McDormand more than Davis looms as the top threat. (She would be a supporting performance on my non-existent ballot.) Kirby seems likely to be in the field for a film I'm looking forward to watching, and Day's Globes upset seems to have put her in the driver's seat for the final nomination. Pike was another surprising Globes winner, but I don't see her cracking this field. Ditto Adams for a movie that wasn't well reviewed, although she's always a threat and has as ton of goodwill built up for not having won a statue yet. (She'll get there sooner rather than later, though.)

Wishful thinking: Julia Garner – The Assistant, Elisabeth Moss – The Invisible Man/Shirley

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom^

Anthony Hopkins – The Father*

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Steven Yeun – Minari*

Gary Oldman – Mank

---

Other contenders:

Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian*

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

This is another field that seems pretty set. Boseman is practically a sure thing for a posthumous win—the only major category that seems to have its winner set at this early stage. Hopkins basically can't be *not* nominated, so he'll be in the field for Still Alice 2.0 (he says, without having seen the film). I don't see Riz Ahmed missing out for a sensational performance as a deaf metal drummer, and Yuen seems to have a solid hold on a nomination for Minari. And then there's recent winner Oldman for playing Mank in Mank. But the buzz has died down considerably for the film as a whole, so if anyone were to miss out among the top contenders, it might be him (or Yeun, honestly). There was a time when Lindo seemed like a surefire nominee, and I'm really hoping against hope that he sneaks in. But if he's not the party crasher, it seems like it will be Rahim.

Wishful thinking: Jean Dujardin – Deerskin, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami..., Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland^

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Lee Isaac Chung– Minari*

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

David Fincher – Mank

---

Other contenders:

Regina King – One Night in Miami…

Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah

There seems to be six major contenders for five slots. (I don't have Shaka King as a major contender, although he could certainly make the field.) Zhao and Sorkin are 100% in, and I think Zhao will be the eventual (and incredibly deserving) winner. I might be predicting slightly too much love for Minari overall, but I don't think I'm going out on a limb here with predicting Chung to make the field. So it will come down to Fennell, Fincher, and Regina King for the final two spots. As I mentioned above, the Academy membership is very much changing, but is three female nominees (and two women of color) asking too much? I cynically think it might be, so I have Regina King missing out in favor of Fennell or Fincher. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though, especially if Fincher—actually one of my favorite directors, but I found Mank to be rather inert—surprisingly misses the cut.

Wishful thinking: Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Kitty Green – The Assistant

BEST PICTURE

Nomadland^

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Promising Young Woman

Minari*

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

One Night in Miami…

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

The Father*

---

Other contenders:

Sound of Metal

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Da 5 Bloods

News of the World*

The Best Picture field was expanded from 5 to up to 10 in 2009. The full 10 films were nominated the first two years in 2009 and 2010; since then, either 8 or 9 films have been nominated each year. There have been 6 years when 9 films were nominated, so the safe bet is to expect the same this year—and that seems to fit the list of nominees. I'm pretty positive we'll see the first 8 garner noms, with The Father taking the last one on the back of its likely acting noms. But any of the other four could sneak in: Metal is the requisite indie darling, Borat is incredibly topical, Bloods was once a frontrunner here, and News might have made it on box office returns in a normal year. Not expecting a ton of wildness here, but you never know.

Wishful thinking: Tenet, Palm Springs, Soul, The Assistant

All right... banged this out just under the wire. I'm going to sleep off these beers and see how I did later in the morning—no waking up early on a cold January morning for me. Very much looking forward to the ceremony, as there doesn't seem to be a true turd in the punch bowl (e.g. Green Book, Jojo Rabbit) this year, to me. Thanks for reading, if you read this!

That's What I Wanted: My Favorite 2020 Albums

As I was putting this list together, I noticed an unmistakable trend in how my musical taste has evolved over the past few years. Back in 2017, just 3 out of my top 10 albums were by female artists. In 2018, I didn't have my standard top-10 albums list, but I did list my top songs, and 5 out of my top 10 songs that year were by female artists. Then last year, 7 out of my top 10 albums (and 10 of my top 20) were by female artists, including my top 5. Those numbers grew this year: each of my top 8 albums are by female artists, as are 14 out of my top 20. I can't think of a single logical reason for this. I remember my my dad went through a little bit of a Lilith Fair phase in the late '90s, when he was a little bit older than I am right now. Like father, like son? Or maybe it's more obvious than that: women are simply putting out better music right now. I'm not gonna say its NOT that. Whatever the reason, I'm not mad about it. This year has been the latest in a long line of shitty years (at least four in a row by my count; hmmm, wonder why?), but it's been a fantastic year for music, rivaling 2018 for the strongest in recent memory. So without further ado, here are my favorite albums by the women (and men) who made 2020 a memorable year in music.

Honorable Mentions (in alphabetical order):

Beach Slang – The Deadbeat Bang of Heartbreak City

Diet Cig – Do You Wonder About Me?

Drive-By Truckers – The Unraveling/The New OK

Frances Quinlan – Likewise

The Front Bottoms – In Sickness & In Flames

Katie Pruitt – Expectations

The Killers – Imploding the Mirage

Lydia Loveless – Daughter

Phoebe Bridgers – Punisher

Sløtface – Sorry for the late reply

10) Sturgill Simpson – Cuttin' Grass (Vols. 1 and 2)

Best Tracks: "Life Ain't Fair and the World Is Mean," "Long White Line," "Oh Sarah," "Keep It Between the Lines"

I don't know what teenage John would be more surprised to see on this list: such a preponderance of female artists or a bluegrass album. (Technically two bluegrass albums.) Even though teenage John listened to a super macho nü metal diet of Linkin Park, Limp Bizkit, and Papa Roach, he might be more surprised to see the bluegrass. But Sturgill Simpson's two albums of bluegrass versions of his songs is that good. Simpson's country sound has always put an idiosyncratic spin on the conventions of the genre—lyrical content, song structure, instrumentation. (The album title Metamodern Sounds in Country Music is apt.) But on these records, Simpson sounds like an old hand at bluegrass, and his songs sounds like genre standards. Or maybe I just need to check out more bluegrass. (Although I'm not unfamiliar with the genre, as I love this album and its all-time album cover.) Either way, this is just a super fun listen, at once easygoing and invigorating and perfect for any number of moods—and we've all gone through any number of moods here in twenty-twenty. If "musicians touring" and "live music" were things this year, I would have 100% gone to a Sturgill Simpson bluegrass show at (probably) the Van Buren and had a blast. Maybe in 2021, maybe in 2021 (he repeats into oblivion).

9) Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit – Reunions

Best tracks: "Dreamsicle," "Only Children," "Overseas," "Be Afraid"

Jason Isbell's follow-up to 2017's phenomenal The Nashville Sound (my #4 that year) doesn't quite reach the same lofty heights as its predecessor, but that's more a function of Nashville's near perfection than any commentary on the quality of Reunions. Don't get me wrong—this is an outstanding album. The more personal, introspective songwriting here ("Children, "Letting You Go") might be even better than that on Nashville, and the musicianship is top notch, with the production and guitarwork at times reminding me of Dire Straits, one of my all-time favorite bands. (Isbell apparently covered "Brothers In Arms" on his last tour, which, kill me now.) Just listen to the opening riff on "Running with Our Eyes Closed"—it's pure fucking Mark Knopfler. Overall, Reunions has a very timeless feel, whereas Nashville, with its more outward-looking, political themes (which aren't entirely absent here, to be sure) felt more immediate and of its time. I wonder which will age better. I know I haven't tired of going back to Nashville yet; we'll see if Reunions has the same staying power. If only I could hear some of these songs live to further burn them into my mind...

8) Best Coast – Always Tomorrow

Best Tracks: "Different Light," "Everything Has Changed," "For the First Time," "Master of My Own Mind"

Sturgill Simpson has a song called "Turtles All the Way Down" (which is included on Cuttin' Grass!). Well, from here it's women all the way down. As I mentioned above, my top 8 albums of the year are all by female artists, which is pretty remarkable. We'll start with Best Coast, whose last full length—2015's California Nights—also cracked my top-10 that year (the top 5, in fact). Their latest isn't quite the near-masterpiece as their last one, but it's another addictive dose of Bethany Cosentino's cynical-yet-hopeful musings brilliantly bathed in Bobb Bruno's sunshiny, pristine production. (I like alliteration, okay?) This is just a righteous collection of earworms, led by "For the First Time," the most delightfully dreamy song in the band's catalogue, an upbeat, poppy little gem that shines brighter than just about anything else here in 2020. I was looking forward to hearing it live earlier in the year... but, alas, the show was in late March and was the very first (of several) COVID cancellations. Maybe we will get live music back sometime in 2021?

7) Margo Price – That's How Rumors Get Started

Best Tracks: "That's How Rumors Get Started," "Letting Me Down," "Twinkle Twinkle," "Stone Me"

Margo Price first grabbed my attention with a Tom Petty reference on the title track of 2017's All American Made. It's pretty much impossible to make a better first impression than that. I liked that album a good deal, but Rumors is on another level. "Stone Me" was one of the first singles that really grabbed me in 2020 and has some of my favorite lyrics of the year: "Call me a bitch, then call me baby / You don't know me / You don't own me / Yeah, that's no way to stone me." What a statement, and one that all the country goddesses of old who clearly inspired her would have put to music if they could during their era. But I think the best track here might be "Letting Me Down," an absolute jam where Price almost sounds like she's backed by the Heartbreakers themselves—are we sure that's not Campbell and Tench on this one? The rest of the album is more of the same—Price channeling those goddesses (Lynn, Wynette, Raitt, et al.) while her band puts a modern spin on a '70s classic/country rock sound. (Try to tell me you don't hear the Eagles on "Gone to Stay.") Inject this shit directly into my veins, please.

6) HAIM – Women in Music Pt. III

Best Tracks: "Los Angeles," "The Steps," "Gasoline," "Summer Girl"

Next up is the latest from the Haim sisters, who must not have listened to Spotify's CEO advice about musicians releasing music more frequently. (Uh, fuck that guy.) This is only the sisters' third album, after 2013's Days Are Gone (which made my top-10 that year) and 2017's Something to Tell You (which garnered an honorable mention but might crack the list proper if I redid it today). I still remember seeing them at the Crescent Ballroom when they were still getting their feet wet as a live act and now they're nominated for Album of the Year. Crazy. Anyway, Women in Music is another slick, soulful jukebox journey through various eras and styles, like the sisters went to town on a box of old vinyls from Mr. and Mrs. Haim's garage. The Stevie Nicks/Fleetwood Mac comparison is still as apt as ever, but there's also a decided '80s Cyndi Lauper/Wilson Phillips vibe on a lot of tracks, even some Sheryl Crow (100% "I've Been Down"). I generally dig acts that wear their influences on their sleeves, and HAIM fits that to a tee (shirt). But those influences are all gussied up in an ultramodern pop sensibility courtesy of producer Ariel Rechtshaid—who I just learned was once the lead singer of The Hippos, one of the dozens of SoCal ska bands I listened to as a youth. Could the next HAIM record be... a ska-punk album? I would definitely... pick it up.

5) Soccer Mommy – color theory

Best Tracks: "circle the drain," "crawling in my skin," "yellow is the color of her eyes," "lucy"

Like the Jason Isbell and Best Coast releases, my only quibble with the new Soccer Mommy album is that it isn't quite as good as its predecessor. I consider 2018's Clean to be one of the best albums of the previous decade, so it was always going to be tough to follow it up. But Sophie Allison was up to the task and very nearly equaled her landmark debut. Her follow-up is even more intimate than Clean from a lyrical standpoint, but the arrangements and production give color theory almost a removed kind of feel, like Allison is armoring her most personal songwriting yet behind a veneer of studio polish, creating a fascinating discord that just seems to fit 2020. The album also has probably the most 2020 song of 2020, "circle the drain": "Things feel that low sometimes / Even when everything is fine," right into the line that perfectly sums up this godawful year: "Hey, I've been falling apart these days." Haven't we all? The album as a whole isn't the easiest listen on this list, but it's one of the most vital and perhaps the most apt for this year. I can't even imagine what Allison has in store for her next album, but I know that I wait for it as eagerly as just about anything.

4) MisterWives – SUPERBLOOM

Best Tracks: "whywhywhy," "rock bottom," "decide to be happy," "SUPERBLOOM"

Changing tracks a bit, this MisterWives album is the catchiest damn thing I heard all year. Seriously, this album is more jam-packed than a jelly donut and has more bangers than a British breakfast. It's got jangly keys and smooth, sexy horns aplenty, backed by a crisp rhythm section and all topped by Mandy Lee's vivacious, honeyed vocals. I had heard of but not really heard this group before this year (truth be told, I was put off by their name, which is kind of bad), but if someone had told me they're like a poppier Naked and Famous (who also put out a solid album this year), I'd have been all over them. I dug into their other albums and they're just as hooky and infectious as SUPERBLOOM. (Hmmm, that's maybe not the best word choice here in 2020...) But nothing in the band's catalogue—or anything released this year, really—can touch "rock bottom," one of my three favorite songs of the year, in the catchiness category. It starts slow and deliberate before picking up on a propulsive rhythm, adding those keys and horns on the way to an absolutely MONSTER chorus that hits like a disco wrecking ball. Just an unbelievable jam. This album was a much-needed dose of energy and positivity in 2020.

3) Taylor Swift – folklore (and evermore)

Best Tracks: "the 1," "cardigan," "exile," "betty"

If we can revisit the teenage John question for a second, he'd surely be shocked to see the predominant pop star of the past decade or so on this list at all, much less ranked this highly. But Taylor Swift is as unassailable as she is unavoidable, and I long ago gave in and embraced my inner Swiftie, which teenage John would be horrified to learn. In the late '90s/TRL days, pop music (the boy bands, Britney/Christina, et al.) was the enemy. It was just so... manufactured. That's not to say Swift's music isn't manufactured—it most certainly is, and carefully so—but it's also important to point out that she write almost all her own songs, and there's a kind of try-hard earnestness about most of her music that actually really works. The most manufactured-sounding of her music (several regrettable lead singles, pretty much the entire Reputation album) is easily her worst. Which brings us to folklore (and its sister album, evermore, which I haven't listened to as much but still quite dig). It might be the "best" album of her career—the deepest lyrically, the most accomplished from a songcrafting standpoint, the most immaculately produced. The sensational "Teenage Love Triangle" ("cardigan"/"august"/"betty") is a microcosm of her career—at once girlish and mature, manufactured yet earnest. I have no problem saying this, teenage John be damned: Taylor Swift is really fucking good. Excited to see where she goes from here. (Also, what's with all the stylized lowercase song titles this year?)

2) The Beths – Jump Rope Gazers

Best Tracks: "I'm Not Getting Excited," "Dying to Believe," "Jump Rope Gazers," "Out of Sight"

This year was actually a pretty good year for new* discoveries. In the honorable mentions, Beach Slang, Diet Cig, Katie Pruitt, and Sløtface are all excellent new-to-me acts I got into in 2020. (* I'm sure I had heard a song or two from these acts before this year, but this is the first time I actively listened to them.) MisterWives cracked my top 5. But by far the most important new discovery this year was New Zealand indie pop/rock band The Beths. I vaguely recall seeing 2018's Future Me Hates Me on a few year-end lists, and I probably even gave it a listen or two. I'm not sure why it didn't make much of an impression, and their new one wasn't really on my radar this year. I think it might have been the baseball writer Keith Law who put it on my radar in one of his (excellent) periodic newsletters. I checked it out and was immediately hooked by the two opening tracks: the feisty, rollicking "I'm Not Getting Excited" and the joyous, monumentally catchy "Dying to Believe." But the best song of the album—and one of the best of the year—is the slower, more heartfelt title track. (The opening three tracks are as good of a three-track run as you'll hear this year.) "Jump Rope Gazers" didn't grab me right away like the first two tracks, but once it grabbed me, it it grabbed me HARD and refused to let go. In most years, this plaintive ballad would have been my #1 song. The guitarwork is beautiful, and singer Liz Stokes's impassioned, yearning vocals are just heartrending. I don't know how this band can follow up this record, but I can't wait to see them try.

1) Waxahatchee – Saint Cloud

Best Tracks: "Can't Do Much," "Fire," "Lilacs," "War"

Most years, if you're lucky, you find one album that immediately enters your personal pantheon, one that you know you'll revisit again and again and again over the years. It's the first album you'll think about when you think of that year, towering over the rest of the music released that year. No disrespect to the other albums on this list, but for 2020, that album is Waxahatchee's Saint Cloud. It's far and away the best album on this list, and the most important to me. I was familiar with Waxahatchee, Katie Crutchfield's once solo project and now band, prior to this year and had enjoyed several of her songs/albums. So her new album was definitely on my radar (Steven Hyden hyping it up on Twitter didn't hurt either). But I wasn't adequately prepared for just how incredible this album would be. Saint Cloud features Crutchfield's typically confessional songwriting, but is another step forward after 2017's Out In the Storm sound-wise, with a fuller, richer sound that that album and, especially, her more rough-hewn earlier albums. It's a (mostly) sunny, twangy trip through the backcountry, capturing a carefree Americana sound that serves as accompaniment to Crutchfield's wry observations and struggles with sobriety and self-doubt. Her masterful lyrics range from the devastatingly simple ("And the lilacs drank the water / And the lilacs die / And the lilacs drank the water / Marking in the slow, slow, slow passing of time" on "Lilacs" to figuratively clever ("In my loneliness, I'm locked in a room / When you see me, I'm honey on a spoon" on "Can't Do Much"). But the centerpiece of the album (to me anyway) and what might very well be the song of the decade (yes, just one year in) is "Fire." I've already listened to it more this in year than any song (but one) I've listened to total since 2005. It hit me like an emotional sledgehammer when I first heard it one afternoon working in my home office, and I probably listened to it 10-15 times that day, and several times a day for weeks thereafter. From the delicate opening keys to Crutchfield's croon of "That's what I wanted" to the gentle percussion to that transcendent moment a little over a minute in when the whole band kicks in, it's just a perfect fucking song. One of my sincerest regrets of this year was not getting able to see her perform this song live. That's really what I wanted. I hope I get the chance to in 2021.

Bonus: My Top 10 Songs of 2020 (roughly in order):

"Fire" – Waxahatchee

"Jump Rope Gazers" – The Beths

"rock bottom" – MisterWives

"Smokestack" – Alkaline Trio

"circle the drain" – Soccer Mommy

"For the First Time" – Best Coast

"Letting Me Down" – Margo Price

"Armageddon's Back in Town" – Drive-By Truckers

"Be Afraid" – Jason Isbell and The 400 Unit

"Kyoto" – Phoebe Bridgers

Here's a link if you want to check out a playlist of all my favorite songs of the year.

That's all for this year. As always, thanks for reading (if anyone is reading). I know 2021 will be a better year overall, even though I tend to doubt it'll be a better year for music. I guess we'll see!