Sunday, March 2, 2025

An Unpredictable Night: My 2024 Oscars Predictions

All right, y'all, let's get down to it. I've been writing about the films of 2024 basically the entire weekend, so it's time to bang out my usual Oscar predix. I'm not expecting to do very well, as this is probably the toughest year to predict in recent memory. I think there's really only a couple true locks in all the major categories and while there are certainly favorites in the rest, most of them are true toss-ups. So this should be wild. Let's get it on.

Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

This *should* be a lock—my predicted winner Zoe Saldaña has won just about every precursor imaginable. However, her co-star Karla Sofía Gascón's recently unearthed racist tweets have doomed Emilia Pérez in pretty much every other category, and it wouldn't shock me to see Saldaña ultimately lose as well. But she has such a huge lead that she's likely safe. If an upset were to occur, Grande would likely benefit, with Rossellini as a darkhorse (even though she's in the movie for like five minutes and only has one memorable scene). I don't think anyone but Saldaña will win, but you never know with this particular ceremony. (P.S. This is a very weak year in this category.)

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Barbaro, 2) Jones, 3) Saldaña, 4) Grande, 5) Rossellini

Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

The one guarantee tonight is that Kieran Culkin will win this category—he's won even more precursors than Saldaña (probably; I haven't actually done the research on that). He's a very deserving winner even though he's won countless awards for playing basically the same character in Succession. (No knock, though—Roman Roy is an incredible TV character.) This is a very strong field and I wouldn't be mad if any of the other nominees won. It's great to see Strong (Culkin's Succession co-star) nominated for his maniacally dedicated work, and Norton and Pearce are longtime favorites getting recognized for really great work. Borisov was new to me but Anora doesn't work without him.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Pearce, 2) Culkin, 3) Norton, 4) Strong, 5) Borisov

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Okay, well, now I'm not enjoying this now that I have to make an actually difficult decision. This will come down to Madison and Moore, and I absolutely adore both performances. Both have won their share of precursors, but Demi Moore has won more of the ones that matter, and she has the stronger narrative with this being her first Oscar nomination in a 40+ year film career (versus Madison's still-nascent career). I'll be firmly rooting for Moore, although I'd be happy for Madison were she to win. Or darkhorse Torres, who was excellent as well. There are no scenarios where Erivo or Gascón win.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Moore, 2) Madison, 3) Torres, 4) Erivo, 5) Gascón

Best Actor
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

There's a growing contingent of prognosticators predicting Chalamet to win this, and I must confess I don't really get it. Yes, he is able to uncannily replicate Dylan's voice and guitar during the (many) musical numbers, but when he has to actually act as Dylan, the man, it's merely passable cosplay. And I recognize that there is some sort of AI controversy surrounding The Brutalist's Hungarian dialogue, but... come the fuck on. I'm about as anti-AI as you can get but I just can't be bothered by that shit. Adrien Brody is absolutely phenomenal in The Brutalist and is completely deserving of a second Oscar. But this is a heart-over-head pick and I'm more than prepared to be wrong here.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Brody, 2) Fiennes, 3) Domingo, 4) Stan, 5) Chalamet

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
James Mangold and Jay Cocks – A Complete Unknown
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys
Peter Straughan – Conclave

This is the only other real lock of the major categories after Culkin—Peter Straughan should win this in a possible precursor for a Conclave Best Picture upset. Although none are particularly likely, there are probably more scenarios for Straughan losing than Culkin. If tonight is, for some reason, an A Complete Unknown night, Mangold and Cocks (elite law firm/porn star duo name) would benefit. And Nickel Boys likely has more passionate advocates than Conclave and could potentially emerge as the Benitez of the night's proceedings. (Inside Conclave joke, zing!) The Perez and Sing Sing scripts have no shot.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Straughan, 2) Bentley and Kwedar, 3) Ross and Barnes, 4) Mangold and Cocks, 5) Audiard

Best Original Screenplay
Sean Baker – Anora
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David – September 5
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Although I wouldn't say it's a true lock, I fully expect Sean Baker to win his first Oscar—but maybe not his last tonight—for his Anora script. Although it won the Palme d'Or, Anora nevertheless entered Oscar season as somewhat as an afterthought before really coming on in the last month or so. And Baker has by all accounts impressed voters and audiences at each subsequent award he and his film have won. He's a personal favorite and I'll be heartily rooting for him tonight. If there's a spoiler it would likely be Eisenberg (another personal favorite). I'd absolutely love a Fargeat win but it seems like a (very) longshot along with Corbet and Fastvold. The September 5 team has no shot—although the film was very well written. Do note that a Baker loss here could be a disastrous signal for Anora's Best Picture chances.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Baker, 2) Fargeat, 3) Eisenberg, 4) Binder, Fehlbaum, and David, 5) Corbet and Fastvold

Best Director
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

There are only two real contenders here: Baker and Corbet. Corbet has the Globe and the BAFTA while Baker has the all-important DGA (plus, implicitly, the PGA and WGA). Corbet had the early momentum but recent developments have made this Sean Baker's award to lose. I don't think he will. I've been a huge fan since The Florida Project (one of my favorite films of the past decade) and am glad to see him finally getting recognition from major awards bodies. That said, The Brutalist is incredible and I'll be quite happy for Corbet were he to pull off the "upset." (And he'd actually get my vote!) Don't see this category going down any other way, but a Fargeat win would be absolutely epic (and deserving). Again, as mentioned above, a Baker loss here bodes very poorly for Anora in Best Picture.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) Corbet, 2) Fargeat, 3) Baker, 4) Mangold, 5) Audiard

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Not all that long ago, I was sure that tonight would be The Brutalist's night. It won a trio of major categories at the Golden Globes (Actor, Director, and Motion Picture – Drama) and just had that air of prestige that often does well with the Academy. (Is that coding for "post-Holocaust epic"? Perhaps.) But other than those Globes wins, The Brutalist has mostly fallen by the wayside as two new contenders emerged: Anora and Conclave.

Clear frontrunner Anora has really come on strong of late, winning the big DGA, PGA, and WGA prizes in recent weeks. However, the one guild award it didn't win was the SAG, which Conclave picked up in a mild upset, complicating the Best Picture race. But I think the SAG win, impressive as it was, might've been too little, too late for a film most seem to like rather than love. I think more voters loved Anora, which helps a lot in the Academy's preferential ballot system. So I think Anora takes the big prize of the night—which would be no surprise at all if Baker were to win both Original Screenplay and Director.

At this point, I usually like to wax a bit poetic about the "big picture" and "what's at stake," ask "What would an Anora (or Conclave) win mean?" I'll give it my best shot, but this year seems similar to, say, 2021 or 2022 in that there's not a ton at stake. As great as Anora is (ditto The Brutalist) and as very good as Conclave is, I wouldn't see a win by either as anything truly notable or as presaging some new direction or trend in US cinema. Films that won the Palme d'Or like Anora did rarely win the Oscar—but Parasite did just that five years ago. It's also an independent film, which rarely win Best Picture—but Nomadland and CODA also did in the two years linked above. And Conclave? Conclave would be like every other good but not great prestige drama to win this category (for any number of recent examples, look at the Best Picture winners of the 2010s).

So, yeah, I like both movies and wouldn't get too bent out of shape were either to win (although I do definitely prefer Anora). At least there's a good amount of drama/unpredictability in the major categories, which isn't always the case. (See: last year.) And nothing that would really piss me off, thankfully. (Emilia Pérez sweep incoming!) Tonight should be an enjoyable, if ultimately not too consequential, ceremony. I'm just fine with that.

My Non-Existent Ballot: 1) The Substance, 2) Anora, 3) The Brutalist, 4) Dune: Part Two, 5) I'm Still Here, 6) Conclave, 7) Nickel Boys, 8) A Complete Unknown, 9) Wicked, 10) Emilia Pérez

As usual, we'll go LIGHTNING ROUND for the remaining categories.

Best International Feature Film
I'm Still Here (Brazil) – directed by Walter Salles
This has long been Emilia Pérez's award to lose, but I think the Gascón controversy—along with the fact that this is a very bad movie!—allows a surging, and excellent, I'm Not Here to swoop in.
My Non-Existent Vote: I'm Still Here

Best Animated Feature Film
The Wild Robot  – directed by Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
Flow has a real shot here (it's also nominated for Best International Feature) and it would not surprise me at all if it wins here. But I'm going with the favorite.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Documentary Feature
No Other Land – directed by Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, and Yuval Abraham
This one seems to be between No Other Land and Porcelain War, which are both about very timely topics (Israel/Palestine, Ukrainian War). Going with the favorite here as well.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

Best Cinematography
Lol Crawley – The Brutalist
Crawley is a big favorite and deservingly so for creating some of the most memorable images of the year (we've all seen the upside-down Statue of Liberty). Nosferatu and Dune are deserving longshots.
My Non-Existent Vote: Crawley

Best Editing
Nick Emerson – Conclave
For some reason the ACE Eddie awards aren't for another couple weeks, which makes this category tougher to predict. Emerson seems to be the favorite for the well-put-together Conclave.
My Non-Existent Vote: Dávid Jancsó – The Brutalist

Best Original Score
Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Blumberg is a sizeable favorite for his excellent Brutalist score, but I wonder if there's a "more is better" thing going on here, as Bertelmann's work is superior.
My Non-Existent Vote: Volker Bertelmann – Conclave

Best Original Song
"El Mal" – Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard (from Emilia Pérez)
The Emilia Pérez songs are mostly awful but this one is at least tolerable. But there is a very realistic possibility that Pérez misses out here due to Gascón and Diane fucking Warren wins her first Oscar.
My Non-Existent Vote: "Like a Bird" – Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada (from Sing Sing)

Best Sound
Tod Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, David Giammarco – A Complete Unknown
Dune seems to be the favorite, but the first one won this category and Unknown and Wicked are very well regarded. Dune won the sound editors guild award, while Unknown one the sound mixing award.
My Non-Existent Vote: Maitland, Sylvester, Caplan, Massey, and Giammarco

Best Visual Effects
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer – Dune: Part Two
Dune is a huge favorite here, and deservingly so—it's in another class entirely than the other nominees (although Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' effects were quite good). Wicked looked like total shit.
My Non-Existent Vote: Lambert, James, Salcombe, and Nefzer

Best Production Design
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales – Wicked
I did not at all like Wicked but will concede that the set designs were pretty good. (Unlike the visual effects!) The other nominees were also strong, especially Nosferatu.
My Non-Existent Vote: Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerová – Nosferatu

Best Costume Design
Paul Tazewell – Wicked
This might be the lock of the night. Wicked certainly has the "most" costumes, which is probably doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Not a super strong field overall (no Anora, Brutalist, Furiosa?).
My Non-Existent Vote: Linda Muir – Nosferatu

Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli – The Substance
Okay, the one thing that might piss me off is if The Substance lost here—the work of this team is just so integral to the movie. The rest of the nominees are all solid, but this has to be The Substance.
My Non-Existent Vote: Persin, Guillon, and Scarselli

Best Live Action Short
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek
This was a really strong crop of live action shorts this year, but I was a bit surprised to see Silent as the favorite per prognosticators and oddsmakers. It was the least impactful to me. A Lien also has a shot.
My Non-Existent Vote: The Last Ranger – Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw

Best Animated Short
Wander to Wonder – Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
Conversely, the animated shorts were quite disappointing this year. They were mostly trite, boring, or weird. Wander (weird) is at least different enough to distinguish itself from the rest.
My Non-Existent Vote: Wander to Wonder

Best Documentary Short
I Am Ready, Warden – Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
*Checks internet.* Okay then, going with this one. As always, you'd have to pay me a significant sum of money to sit through these.
My Non-Existent Vote: Abstain (I have not seen any of the nominees)

This is a strange year in the Oscar predicting game. I actually feel more confident in most of the down-ballot categories than the major ones. Last year, I got 17/23 with just one major category miss. I don't feel at all confident that I can beat or even tie that number this year. As far as what I'll be rooting for, Demi Moore and Sean Baker are at the top of my list, as well as an I'm Still Here upset over Emilia Pérez in International Feature. Oh, and an out-of-nowhere win for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for the Challengers score. (How was that not nominated??) Happy Oscar night, y'all!

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Bee-Keeping It Real in a Down Year: My 2024 Fake Oscars

I'll begin my usual preamble with some bad news: 2024 was a weaker year in cinema than 2023 in just about every respect. For starters, after three straight years of growth following the pandemic-stricken 2020, the domestic box office was down compared to the previous year.

And when you look at the highest-grossing movies, it makes sense. In the top 10, you've got a whopping 9(!) sequels, many of which no one asked for or needed. That includes #1 Inside Out 2, which I didn't even bother seeing even though I'd heard mostly good things—the first one did exactly what it needed and a sequel just seemed entirely unnecessary. (This exact same thing goes for Moana 2.) Then you've got a couple fourth entries in kids' franchises, two legacyquels that were actually fairly decent, a third and ever-more-irritating Deadpool movie, a fun but frivolous Godzilla franchise entry, and the second Dune flick. The lone non-sequel was Wicked, which is only based on one of the most, ahem, popular Broadway musicals of all time. This crop of blockbusters pales in comparison to 2023's, which was led by the Barbenheimer juggernaut.

I'd also say 2024's slate of Oscar nominees is weaker than 2023's. For one, there isn't even a no-doubt frontrunner as I write this about two weeks before the ceremony. (Update: This is still true the night before the ceremony.) It seems like Anora is the Best Picture favorite right now, but that's only a recent development in what has been a very uncertain race thus far. It'd make a fine winner (I'm a big fan!) but would likely be forgotten in a couple years like, well, like just about every Best Picture winner besides Oppenheimer, Parasite, and Moonlight in the past 15 or so years. Films like The Brutalist and The Substance might've held their own in last year's field, but I think that's about it. And this year's field also has once-frontrunner Emilia Pérez, which is one of the worst Best Picture nominees of the century.

So, yeah, 2024 was somewhat of a down year in cinema. But there's hope! This palpable downturn in quality films is likely just fallout from the 2023 WGA strike, which hampered and/or delayed countless promising projects. With that well in the rearview now, hopefully 2025 will be a big bounce-back year, both for the box office and Oscars slate. Fingers crossed.

But down year or not, there's still plenty worth celebrating from 2024 in the world of cinema. As usual, I'm here to share my favorite movies and performances with you. Below, you'll find a few of the bigger hits of the year—but even more outstanding popcorn flicks that didn't quite bring in the beaucoup bucks for whatever reason. You'll also see a few Oscar nominees—but also some prestige pictures that didn't resonate as much with awards bodies. As always, my favorites feature both popcorn and prestige, but are generally box-office and awards-show agnostic. I like what I like; sometimes it lines up with the masses and the critics, sometimes it doesn't.

But enough preamble (man, they keep getting longer over the years)—let's get to the awards. We'll start like the real Oscars usually do, with the supporting categories. All nominees are listed in alphabetical order until we get to Best Picture.

Gold = winner
^ = Oscar nominee

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Instigators
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain^
Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Edward Norton  – A Complete Unknown^
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist^
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Honorable mentions: Austin Amelio – Hit Man, Yura Borisov – Anora^, William Dafoe – Nosferatu, Adam Pearson – A Different Man, Sean San Jose – Sing Sing

Oscar voters did a pretty good job here, likely category fraud aside (more below). Three nominees made my field, another was an HM, and Strong made my longlist (very good but I'm generally tougher on performances based on real people). Lots of other good stuff in the HMs—Amelio might've been my favorite performance in Hit Man, Pearson stole the show every time he was on screen in Different, and San Jose more than held his own against Colman Domingo in Sing Sing. Dafoe was the closest to making my field—as soon as he showed up in Nosferatu I basically did the Leo in OUATIH meme. Let's start my field with a name that was nowhere near any Oscar shortlists.

  • That's right, Casey Affleck in the just-fine Apple TV streamer The Instigators snagged a nom here. He gave maybe the funniest performance of the year with absolute expert timing and delivery—especially impressive given his joke-a-minute pace. But there's also a strong element of pathos, of world-weariness, in his performance. Manchester by the Sea this is not, but he might actually out-Masshole his brother here. He and Hong Chau really elevate an otherwise middling streamer into something very much worth watching.
  • The category fraud comment above was clearly in reference to Kieran Culkin, who is basically a co-lead in Pain with writer/director Jesse Eisenberg. But I'm slotting him here because 1) the Oscars did, and 2) the story is very clearly told from Eisenberg's POV. Controversy aside, his performance is incredible—hilarious and nervy and poignant—even if it's somewhat a remix of his work on Succession. That's no slight—Roman Roy is one of the great TV characters of this century. Culkin has the Oscar sewn up and is a definite contender here.
  • Furiosa didn't seem to click much at all with audiences, and it was definitely received much more coldly by critics than its predecessor. That's a shame, because it's still a pretty great movie even if it's (as expected) a notch or two below Fury Road. It's at least worth watching for Chris Hemsworth as Dementus, maybe the best villain in the whole Mad Max saga. He's a great example of the "villain is the hero of their own story" paradigm and shows surprising dramatic depth amidst all the bellowing and pillaging. His death scene is one of my favorite scenes of the year—he's incredible in it. "Do you have it in you to make it epic?"
  • Edward Norton was the last name to make my field (it was so close between him and Dafoe) for his tender, wounded, unshowy work as Pete Seeger in Unknown. His Seeger is a man who doesn't know his time has passed him by but he still keeps fighting for his values. It's the best performance in a movie that featured a little too much playacting for my liking. He's long been one of my favorite screen presences (shoutout to Kingdom of Heaven director's cut!) and I hope this role gets him back in Hollywood's good graces.
  • Speaking of veteran's getting their due, somehow this is Guy Pearce's first Oscar nomination. He's had at least a half-dozen awards-worthy performances since L.A. Confidential (The Rover is a personal favorite) but his performance as a metaphorical hammer of capitalism in the epic The Brutalist finally put him over the top. His role demands that he dominates the screen every time he's on it and he does so with magnetic ferocity and a twisted empathy. It's stellar work and, again, hopefully just the start of more Oscar-recognized roles.

While Culkin will almost certainly take home the statue on Oscar Sunday, he has to cede the spotlight here to Dementus himself, Chris Hemsworth. I think part of the reason he takes the win here is the unexpected greatness of the performance. While greatness can be expected from the other four nominees (a former Oscar winner, an about-to-be Oscar winner, and two vets with now five Oscar noms between them), Hemsworth had only shown flashes of greatness thus far in his career—he's come a long way from the first Thor movie. And the role of Dementus could have been capably filled by, say, Kevin Durand (no shade!)—and yet Hemsworth had it in him to make it epic and take the fake statue here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adria Arjona – Hit Man
Hong Chau – The Instigators
Katy O'Brian – Love Lies Bleeding
Brigette Lundy-Paine* – I Saw the TV Glow
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
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Honorable mentions: Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown^, Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown, Felicity Jones – The Brutalist^, AnnaSophia Robb – Rebel Ridge, Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez^

I seem to have a tough time filling this category just about every year. But I think the reasons for that are fairly clear. One is institutionalized sexism in the acting industry—there are simply more male character actors than female, and there are more, and meatier, supporting roles for men than women. But the other reason is that I just tend to see more male-skewing movies, making it less likely that I'd see that many great female supporting performances. That's one reason the Oscars actually *are* important—see the three nominees in my HMs. (Just didn't see it with Rossellini and her 5 minutes of screentime, and Wicked was decidedly Not For Me.) That said, the actual Oscar nominees were all beat out by performances from less-heralded movies, including a couple from streamers.

  • I was passingly familiar with Adria Arjona prior to Hit Man, mostly from the rather underappreciated Michael Bay Net Flick 6 Underground. But she hadn't been given a ton to do in many of her previous roles aside from "be hot." Don't get me wrong—she absolutely does that *very well* in Hit Man. But she's also able to take the "abused wife" stock character and subvert the stereotype and make it her own. She also more than holds her own against Glen Powell's nuclear-grade movie star charisma—they have some absolutely incendiary scenes together, especially the Notes app scene, which is easily one of the best scenes of the year.
  • Like Casey Affleck above, Hong Chau rose above the material around her in The Instigators. Her no-nonsense psychiatrist to Matt Damon's character is a great comedic foil to Affleck's character (they have some absolutely hilarious interactions) and somewhat grounds the movie. If not for a very lackadaisical script and straight-to-streamer mindset, this could've been one of the best comedies of the year. Like Arjona above, she's here in large part due to a single scene, the one in which she's both operating on and therapizing Matt Damon. She takes no bullshit from either Damon or Affleck and dishes as much as she takes. Really fun performance.
  • Katy O'Brian was the final name to make my field here, narrowly beating out Barbaro, Jones, and Robb, who all at various points were in the field. Barbaro's Joan Baez was riveting and one of the best parts of Unknown, while Jones delivered some very good Capital A Acting, which typically doesn't do all that well in this space. I quite liked Robb's perky yet pained southern lawyer, but O'Brian's criminal lesbian bodybuilder was just too undeniable—and in basically her feature debut, no less. Come for her scenes with Kristen Stewart, stay for her mid-competition freakout. This was a star-making performance, and we'll be hearing more from O'Brian soon.
  • I'm still wrapping my head around I Saw the TV Glow as a whole, but one thing that's clear is that Brigette Lundy-Paine's performance is absolutely massive. Her transformation from a fairly normal (a little weird but well meaning) teenager to unhinged and haunted adult is as fascinating as it is impressive. Her mid-movie monologue is one of the most captivating and memorable scenes of the year, one that stuck with me long past the final credits. I'm still not sure if Glow "works" (or whether that matters) but I know the whole thing would fall apart without a performance of the caliber of Lundy-Paine's. (*Note: I found out during research that Lundy-Paine now goes by Jack Maven and uses they/them pronouns. But the performance was as Lundy-Paine so that's how I've referred to them here.)
  • That leaves us with the actress that was easily closest to earning an actual Oscar nomination, Margaret Qualley. She very well could have finished sixth in the actual voting for nominees. But she easily made my field here, as The Substance (one of my favorites of the year) flat-out doesn't work without her vacuous yet vital work opposite Demi Moore. She has kind of an un-acting thing going on—she's largely expressionless in many scenes but is still able to communicate a fervent hunger for pleasure, for success, for life. It's also a very fearlessly physical performance—Fargeat demanded a lot from her actresses. I'm more than impressed that the Academy actually nominated Moore, but Qualley deserved a nomination alongside her.

If this was a somewhat tough field to put together, it was also tough to call, especially with such a wide range of femininity represented among the nominees. Arjona, Lundy-Paine, and Qualley all merited serious consideration. It came down to Qualley and Lundy-Paine, two nominees that represent vastly different definitions of femininity. Ultimately, Brigette Lundy-Paine took the fake statue it in a nailbiter. That monologue, my god—absolutely vital, thrilling work. Sometimes one scene is all it takes, which just about every nominee here can attest to.

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist^
Daniel Craig – Queer
David Dastmalchian – Late Night with the Devil
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave^
Josh O’Connor – Challengers
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Honorable mentions: Timothée Chalamet – Dune: Part Two, Colman Domingo – Sing Sing^, Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain, Aaron Pierre – Rebel Ridge, Sebastian Stan – A Different Man

Between my nominees and HMs, we've got all five Oscar nominees represented. Brody, Fiennes, and Chalamet all have a shot to win the statue, although Chalamet was absolutely nominated for the wrong performance, if I may say so. His Dylan vocals are absolutely incredible, but his non-musical performance is mostly just Dylan cosplay. I did find Stan's Trump to be a strong performance, but it's nowhere near as good as his work in A Different Man. Eisenberg was nominated for his A Real Pain script, but he was also worthy as an actor—there's a group dinner scene that might very well be the best-acted scene of the year. (He just didn't ask himself to do much more than that, though.) And Pierre was a knockout in Ridge and could easily wind up back here as a nominee very soon. But on to the five that made my field.

  • Adrien Brody is the odds-on Oscar favorite, and for good reason—he's an absolute marvel as the center of the 3+ hour postwar American epic that is The Brutalist. He'd mostly been slumming in DTV projects the past several years, having seemingly falling out of favor in Hollywood years after becoming the youngest-ever Best Actor winner for The Pianist (which I still haven't seen) in 2002. But the role of László Tóth feels like only a role he could have played, and one that seems primed to win him a second Oscar. His Tóth is a creation of pure pain, ego, and willpower, as fully realized a character as Cate Blanchett's Lydia Tárr to where you leave the theater not quite sure if they were a movie character or historical figure. There is almost no higher compliment you can give to an acting performance than that.
  • Next up is Daniel Craig, who did play a historical figure—or at least a fictionalized version of one. In Queer, Luca Guadagnino's second absolute banger of 2024 after Challengers, Craig plays William Lee (aka William S. Burroughs), a bisexual, drug-addicted, likely wife murderer bumming around 1950s Mexico City. It's about as far removed from James Bond as possible (but not so far removed from Benoit Blanc). Craig easily disappears into the role, utterly magnetic as he stalks his next lover, gets violently drunk, fully blows a dude, and hallucinates on jungle plants. It's a bold performance, and one that I hope sets the stage for a fascinating post-Bond career.
  • There are always some surprise names in my Fake Oscars, but I think David Dastmalchian might be one of the biggest surprises in the history of these blog posts. He's a career character actor who finally got a leading role in a Shudder exclusive in which he plays fictitious late-night host Jack Delroy, who may or may not have helped summon the devil on live TV... and it's easily one of the best performances of the year. He's in just about every frame and expertly balances his on-camera persona with the "real" Jack Delroy backstage. He's funny, charming, tormented, and then unhinged—a performance that signals this man is ready for more leading roles.
  • And then there's Ralph Fiennes, who may actually be my favorite working actor today—he elevates everything he's in and is just so versatile. He actually won this category back in 2016 (the second-ever Fake Oscars!) for playing a character who couldn't be much different than Conclave's Cardinal Lawrence. His Harry Hawkes in A Bigger Splash is all cocaine and (mostly) false bravado, a horny, sun-baked rolling stone—and he's just marvelous. But his Cardinal Lawrence might be just as impressive, even if it's much more intensely internal work—Fiennes is a master of subtle facial tics and body language. (Note that he was also very good in The Return last year and, oh yeah, hangs full dong.)
  • The final name in my field was Josh O'Connor, a new-to-me name who barely fought off strong, ahem, challenges from Domingo, Pierre, and Stan. (His co-star, Mike Faist, made my longlist.) But his perfectly named (for a tennis player) Patrick Zweig was one of my favorite parts of one of my favorite movies of the year, Challengers. (You *will* be hearing more about this movie.) Zweig is an irresistible and not-quite-irredeemable dirtbag who's only slightly better at manipulating people than he is at tennis. O'Conner has an obvious swagger and smoldering charisma who brings out the best in his co-stars, Faist and an absolutely scintillating Zendaya (more on her later for sure). I'm eager to see more from this intriguing talent.

Craig, Dastmalchian, and O'Connor were all very good but a cut below Brody and Fiennes—looks like the Oscar cream rises to the top. And as much as I love Fiennes and dug his work in Conclave, he won't earn his second Fake Oscar this year as Adrien Brody's work is just too transcendent in The Brutalist. It's great to see one of Hollywood's most obvious top talents get back to the top of the mountain. Hopefully he stays there this time.

BEST ACTRESS
Willa Fitzgerald – Strange Darling
Mikey Madison – Anora^
Demi Moore – The Substance^
Fernanda Torres – I'm Still Here^
Zendeya – Challengers
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Honorable mentions: Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders, Lily-Rose Depp – Nosferatu, Kirsten Dunst – Civil War, Naomi Scott – Smile 2, Kristen Stewart – Love Lies Bleeding

Like Best Supporting Actor, we have three nominees in common with the real thing. Missing are Erivo and Gascón, neither of whom even made my longlist as I greatly disliked both of their movies. (Erivo was better than Gascón, although neither were the problem with their movies.) But we do have what seems to be the top three contenders (could see any of them winning the statue), as well as a slew of nominees from horror movies in both the nominees and the HMs. I've long championed horror flicks in this space, especially their actresses (shoutout to Toni Colette in 2018!), while the Oscars are finally catching up this year by nominating Moore. Also in the HMs are some great earlier-year performances from Comer, Dunst, and Stewart. This is a pretty strong field overall. Let's dive in.

  • The heretofore-unknown-to-me Willa Fitzgerald was the final inclusion in the field, just making it over fellow scream queens Depp and Scott. They both give wrenching, physical performances and were very close to making the field, but Fitzgerald's versatility won me over. What you think you know about her character changes from sequence to sequence (Darling is broken up into five parts that unfold non-chronologically) and Fitzgerald effortlessly slides from one facet of her personality to another like a cinematic chameleon. Moore's surprise nomination was a great start, but I hope we see more horror actresses like Fitzgerald, Depp, and Scott nominated in the future.
  • I think—think—Best Actress will come down to Madison and Moore, but I absolutely know (spoilers!) they they are my top two contenders here. A performer from each of Sean Baker's previous two movies has won a Fake Oscar: Willem Dafoe won Best Supporting Actor for The Florida Project back in 2017, and Simon Rex won Best Actor for Red Rocket in 2021Mikey Madison could absolutely continue that streak this year for her fiery, aching, indelible Ani in Anora. In a very similar way to Bria Vinaite in Florida, Madison simply melts into the role of a Brighton Beach stripper who gets tangled up in love and fortune with the son of a Russian oligarch. She's won a ton of precursors and could very well win the Oscar—and the Fake Oscar, something that hasn't actually happened yet.
  • Madison's main competition is, unbelievably if you've seen the movie, Hollywood legend Demi Moore for her physically and emotionally baring work in The Substance. That's right, the goopiest, most bonkers body horror movie of the year is nominated for not one but several major Oscars. I knew Moore would be in this field the moment I walked out of the theater (completely stunned, it must be said), but I didn't think she had much of a shot at a real Oscar nom. So very happy to be proven wrong! She's absolutely deserving—she takes every comment about her looks or body over the years and channels them into a fearless, cathartic performance as Elisabeth. She's nothing short of a revelation and her win would bring the house down on Oscar Sunday.
  • The other real-life Oscar nominee to make my field was Fernanda Torres. She was also the final acting nominee I needed to see, only having watched I'm Still Here the Thursday before the Oscars. (A five-day bachelor party in Nashville takes away a lot of movie-watching time.) But she was an easy, if late, inclusion here for her unadorned, finely calibrated turn as a Brazilian activist, wife, and victim who must stay strong for her family after her husband is kidnapped and murdered by agents of the military-controlled government. What could easily have been a histrionic, Oscar-baity performance was instead quiet, studied—but still heart-breaking—work. She's a darkhorse contender for the Oscar for sure.
  • I'll be honest—I didn't really get Zendaya before Challengers. I'd never heard any of her music, never seen Euphoria. Thought she was fun as MJ in the Tom Holland Spider-Mans and decent as Chani in the Dune movies. But then I saw her as Tashi Duncan and I *got it*. And how! She positively emanates unbridled sex appeal—which is, by the way, completely necessary for the role. But more than that, for every smoldering look she gives, she serves up (zing!) just as many of disappointment, disdain, loathing as she navigates her broken career and marriage. It's the most full-fledged performance I've yet seen from her—and, hopefully, a beacon of what is still to come.

Of all the categories in this post, this one was by far the toughest to decide. I love all the scream queens, and after I walked out of Challengers I was sure Zendaya would win this. But Madison and Moore were a definite cut above the rest, both of whom are more than deserving and give better performances than some past winners here. It was agonizing, but Baker's streak has come to an end: Demi Moore was just too raw, too genuine, too iconic to lose here. I'll be happy for either leading lady at the Oscars, but I'll be pulling for Moore just a bit, well, more.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Sean Baker – Anora^
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain^
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance^
Justin Kuritzkes – Challengers
Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow
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Honorable mentions: Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist^, Justin Kuritzkes – Queer, Richard Linklater and Glen Powell – Hit Man, JT Mollner – Strange Darling, Jeremy Saulnier – Rebel Ridge

As is tradition, just the one screenplay category this year—and it might as well be called Best Original Screenplay since the only one that is even kind of an adaptation is Queer. We've got 4/5 Best Original Screenplay nominees in my field/HMs, and September5 made my longlist. The only Best Adapted nominee that made my longlist was Conclave. A Complete Unknown was a disappointingly standard biopic, the strength of Sing Sing wasn't the script, Emilia Pérez is an actively bad script, and I haven't yet seen Nickel Boys, but it does not seem like the kind of film that would crack this list. (Update: It did not. Very good but not because of writing.) Elsewhere in the HMs you've got a couple excellent streamers (Rebel Ridge and Hit Man) plus the clever Strange Darling. But let's get to the actual nominees.

  • Sean Baker earned screenplay nominations for both The Florida Project and Red Rocket but didn't win either (losing to Jordan Peele for Get Out and Mike Mills for C'mon C'mon). He's obviously an incredible screenwriter, but his films often have an improvised feel that makes them feel less "written." There are large stretches of Anora that have that improvised quality, but it's much more structured than Florida or Rocket and, thus, feels more "written." Baker creates some amazing characters and situations (that kidnapping scene especially) and is the favorite for the Oscar right now—and he's a big contender here as well.
  • A Real Pain was a bit of a revelation for me. Not because it's one of the best or my favorite films of the year (it's not, although it is very good), but because it showed just how talented Jesse Eisenberg really is. I've always enjoyed his screen presence, even if he largely plays variations on the same character, whether in legitimately great films like Adventureland and The Social Network or popcorn fare like Zombieland and Now You See Me. He plays a very similar character in Pain, but his writing allows him to unlock parts of himself as a performer that I've rarely seen (that group dinner scene) and paved the way for Culkin to win an Oscar. Eisenberg himself won't win an Oscar on Sunday, but he almost certainly will someday, whether as a performer or writer.
  • Speaking of revelations, then there's Coralie Fargeat. I had seen and quite liked her previous feature, 2017's Revenge, but The Substance—another visceral, female-centered horror-adjacent trip—was a massive step up in just about every conceivable way. Starting with her script, which creates a not-quite-real world very similar to ours and populates it with vividly drawn caricatures that mostly don't feel like real people with the obvious exception of Moore's Elisabeth. The script is as smart and layered as it is unsubtle and darkly hilarious. It might just get my real Oscar vote if I had one just for its sheer audacity.
  • But that's just because the next two writers weren't even nominated. Justin Kuritzkes seemed to have been hanging on the fringes of a nomination but wound up missing out. Which is a shame, as Challengers is one of the best scripts of the year and one of the best feature debuts in recent memory. It's sexy, it's thorny, it's smart, and it's a helluva lot of fun. Who would have thought that a love triangle set in the world of competitive tennis would also be an insightful rumination on—hold up, let me quote my Letterboxd review—"the fires that burn inside each of us. The fires that move us, compel us, and sometimes burn us—in competition, in the bedroom, in life." All that *plus* the dude wrote Queer for Luca as well. What a year for them both.
  • When I first walked out of Jane Schoenbrun's I Saw the TV Glow, I wasn't sure whether I "got" it. Whether it "worked," plot-wise, character-wise. Then I watched it again recently and realized whether you "get" it or whether it "works" doesn't matter at all. I don't necessarily—but kind of do?—mean to compare it to Mulholland Drive, but Glow is more about vibes, ideas, feelings, who cares whether the events of the movie make logical sense. It's designed to slip into those deep, dark crevasses of your brain and fuck with what it finds there. But it's also warmly humanistic and shows great affection for its influences (everything from Buffy and Pete & Pete to '90s indie rock and, yes, Twin Peaks). It's remarkable work and I'm beyond intrigued to see what they have in store next.

These are all really excellent scripts, but this category was the easiest call so far—game, set, match Justin Kuritzkes. He's now the second writer to win a screenplay award for a Luca film here, after James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name in 2017 (in Adapted Screenplay back when I did two separate categories). Baker is now 0-3 in this category (he'll have to settle for the Director/Picture wins for Florida) but will almost certainly be back. I could also see the other three nominees returning someday as well. Really strong group overall!

BEST DIRECTOR
Mike Cheslik – Hundreds of Beavers
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist^
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance^
Luca Guadagnino – Challengers
Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow
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Honorable mentions: Sean Baker – Anora^, Luca Guadagnino – Queer, George Miller – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys, Walter Salles – I'm Still Here

Like most categories, there's a decent crossover with the actual Oscar nominees—two in the field and one in the HMs (it really hurt to leave Baker out). If you've been paying attention, it should be no surprise that Audiard and Mangold missed out. Besides Baker in the HMs, you've got a second Luca sighting (again: what a year), a more-than-worthy follow-up to Fury Road from Miller, and the directors of two critical darlings who I'm surprised didn't get more Oscar buzz. But on to my nominees, starting with easily the most unexpected name in the field.

  • If you haven't seen Hundreds of Beavers, do yourself a favor and check it out right away. (It's on Amazon Prime and Tubi.) Not only is it, by far, the funniest movie of the year—it's a screwball blend of The Revenant, Looney Tunes–esque slapstick comedy, and Super Mario games—but it is, and I'm only slightly exaggerating here, a cinematic achievement on par with the Avatar movies. Made with a budget of only about $150,000, it's endlessly inventive, a true showcase of the magic of moviemaking—just see it to see what I mean. Massive respect to director Mike Cheslik, who kicked Baker, a personal favorite, to the HMs. I obviously can't wait to see what he does next, even if I strangely hope he doesn't get a bigger budget.
  • What Brady Corbet accomplished with The Brutalist is actually a similarly impressive achievement, albeit on a slightly higher scale. His budget was about $9.6M—while that's nowhere near $150k, it's still absolutely miniscule for most wide releases, much less a 3+ hour epic like The Brutalist. And it was shot in just one month! Just absolute mastery of his craft. I saw and liked his previous feature, 2018's Vox Lux, but like Fargeat, this was an incredible evolution for Corbet. He seems to have fallen slightly behind Baker in the Best Director race, but no one would be surprised if it was Corbet's name that's called out tomorrow night.
  • I covered Coralie Fargeat as a writer above, but now let's talk about her direction. Like her script, it's often remarkably unsubtle—that Dennis Quaid shrimp scene immediately comes to mind here—but that's kind of the point. The world—and Hollywood specifically—is remarkably unsubtle about how it treats women, so Fargeat takes the same approach in her movie. That approach allows her to be as outré or gauche as she wants—which is never more apparent than in the Monstro Elisasue segment in the third act, truly one of the most brazen and bonkers set pieces in any movie ever, much less a Best Picture nominee. It makes me giddy to no end that The Substance got as many nominations as it did.
  • Luca Guadagnino has only one Oscar nomination, but it's not even for Best Director (it's a Best Picture nom for Call Me by Your Name). There's no such injustice in this space: he now has three nominations for CMBYN, Suspiria, and, now Challengers. (And it should probably be four—it took me a second viewing to really come around on A Bigger Splash.) Between Challengers and Queer, I just don't think there's another director working on the same level as Luca right now—he gets the most out of his outstanding casts, he freely takes filmmaking risks (e.g., the tennis editing), and always—always—has sensational music in his films. (Reznor/Ross would be a shoo-in for Best Score if I still did that category.) There's just no one doing it like Luca right now.
  • Like Fargeat above, Jane Schoenbrun also gets the double nod for Screenplay and Director. And like Fargeat they also create their own slightly off-kilter cinematic world—the setting is identifiable as "the suburbs," but the details are just... off somehow. And like Guadagnino, Schoenbrun is really firing on all cylinders here—getting *that* performance out of Lundy-Paine, putting together *that* soundtrack, and creating several unforgettable images (the burning TV, Smith sticking head into his TV, *that* shot in the bathroom at the end). Impressive, impressive stuff, and I'm eager to delve both backward and forward into their work.

This is another really strong field (duh, I put it together) but the final choice was actually pretty easy for me: this is (spoilers) the year of Challengers, so Luca Guadagnino his first-ever Fake Oscar after losses to Baker in 2017 and Ari Aster in 2018. It probably won't be his last—his aesthetic is just that much in my cinematic wheelhouse. He could be a contender as soon as this year, as his next project—an academia-set thriller starring Julia Roberts, Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, and, of course, Michael Stuhlbarg—sounds entirely up my alley.

BEST PICTURE
1. Challengers | Letterboxd Reviews
2. The Beekeeper | Letterboxd Reviews
3. The Substance^ | Letterboxd Review
4. I Saw the TV Glow | Letterboxd Reviews
5. Anora^ | Letterboxd Review
6. Queer Letterboxd Review
7. The Brutalist^ | Letterboxd Review
8. Hundreds of Beavers | Letterboxd Review
9. Late Night with the Devil | Letterboxd Review
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | Letterboxd Review
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Honorable mentions (in order): The Shadow StraysBad Boys: Ride or DieRebel RidgeThe Fall GuyDune: Part Two^

Just three actual Oscar nominees this year (plus Dune in the HMs)—way down from a combined eight last year. That was an unusually strong year, though—as I mentioned way back at the beginning, this was definitely a weaker movie year overall. Not that it's a bad year for movies—I don't think there's such a thing—it's just not an all-timer like last year.

But as you can tell from my #2 above (and the HMs), there's one area where 2024 was a great year: action movies. Yep, you read that right: The Beekeeper is my second-favorite movie of the year. In fact, it spent almost the entire year in the #1 spot (it came out in January) before a recent second viewing of Challengers finally knocked it off its perch.

While it may not be my Best Picture, it *is* the most purely entertaining movie I've seen in a long time, a perfect 5-star rating right out of the gate. I've always been a fan of Statham (Wrath of Man was my Best Picture in 2021), but even then I wasn't quite ready for The Beekeeper. The premise sounds typical of a post-awards January dump: there's a secret group of government operatives called the Beekeepers, and Statham is a former agent gone rogue. But it walks an absolutely perfect line between self-seriousness and parody—even after two viewings I can't tell whether they knew what kind of movie they were making.

But I don't care because the result is absolutely amazing. I saw a Saturday matinee with a few friends and we were just GUFFAWING almost the entire runtime, from the ludicrous suicide that kicks things off to the cop calling someone a "dog fucker" to all the glorious fights and kills to the insane reveal of who the antagonist actually is to, yes, all the bee puns. There have been very few movies I've straight up enjoyed more than The Beekeeper in recent years. As you can probably ascertain, I've positively *turgid* at the recent news that Timo fucking Tjahjanto (he made my Best Director longlist for The Shadow Strays) will be directing the sequel. Best Picture 2025 (or 2026)?

And with that I'll call it a wrap. This is somehow almost as long as last year, when I had a few bonus categories at the end. If you're interested, here's a link to my full, (loosely) ranked list of every 2024 film I've seen. (Add me if you're on there!) Next up is my usual Oscar predix. This is as tough a year to predict as I can remember, so wish me luck! Thank you, as always, for reading.

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

2025 Oscar Nominations Predictions

It's a little later than expected, as the nominations announcement was delayed by a week due to the L.A. wildfires, but Oscar nominations morning is finally almost here. At least the delay gave him time to do a bit more research, as I was able to catch up with The Brutalist, which seems to be the Best Picture frontrunner at the moment, as well as next year's Best Picture winner, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera. (Only half-kidding.) The Brutalist is definitely a different—and not as strong—frontrunner than Oppenheimer was at this time last year, and may of the top categories seem more unsettled in what seems to be seen as a much weaker year for cinema than 2023 was. I'm not sure I agree with that sentiment, but I will say that the Best Picture slate probably won't be as strong as last year's group. With that in mind, let's try to piece together what the top eight categories might look like in the morning, with the nominees listed in presumed order of likelihood. I think I got 40/45 last year, which I can't imagine equaling this year, much less topping, but let's give it a whirl!

* = haven't seen it
^ = early winner prediction

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Peter Straughan – Conclave^
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez*
James Mangold and Jay Cocks – A Complete Unknown
Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox – Wicked
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys*
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Other contenders:
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing*
Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega – I’m Still Here*
Jon Spaihts – Dune: Part Two

To me, it looks like the top three are locks, with the next three fighting for the final two spots. Conclave and, apparently, Emilia Perez figure to be among the most-nominated films, with A Complete Unknown not too far behind. They seem like pretty safe bets, which means another movie likely to be nominated, Wicked, will be duking it out with several smaller films. As Academy membership continues to grow and diversify, their voting tendencies get harder and harder to predict, with seemingly more room for indies like Nickel Boys and Sing Sing (and potentially I'm Still Here), while nominations for box office smashes like Wicked can no longer be seen as a sure thing. (And, I mean, it's an adaptation of half a musical that was itself adapted from a book.) But the box office still drives Hollywood, so I think only one of the smaller films breaks through. Let's go with Nickel Boys, which seems to have more momentum, for now, but I wouldn't be surprised by any combination of those three films, or even I'm Still Here sneaking in.

Wishful thinking: Justin Kuritzkes – Queer, Nico Lathouris and George Miller – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist^
Sean Baker – Anora
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Justin Kuritzkes – Challengers
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Other contenders: 
Mike Leigh – Hard Truths*
Tim Fehlbaum and Moritz S. Binder – September 5*
Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine Is Light*

If this is the actual field, I'd be incredibly happy—these are all among my favorite movies of the year. I've long been a fan of Sean Baker, who should finally get his first nomination (still can't believe he wasn't nominated for *anything* for The Florida Project). Faraget wasn't new to me—I quite liked Revenge, but The Substance was a massive level up. I'm obviously more familiar with Eisenberg's work as an actor, but A Real Pain is excellent and he has a promising career ahead of him as a writer/director. The Brutalist is a massive achievement, but comparatively less due to its script, although it would make a fine winner. Those four seem like locks, and the fifth nominee could be any of the other four listed (or something cool I don't even know about). I'm going more with my heart than my head in Challengers (probably the best movie of 2024 of those I've seen so far), but it has a real shot and I just don't know which of the other contenders has the best shot, having not seen any of them. Preparing to be minorly disappointed if Challengers misses out, but I'm sure the others are all great.

Wishful thinking: Jeremy Saulnier – Rebel Ridge, Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez*^
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl*
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Other contenders: 
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez*

If you read the tea leaves (i.e., follow the precursor awards and read Oscar blogs), you can usually predict 4/5 nominees in these major categories pretty reliably. That's why I'm always saying something like "Pretty confident in the top four" or "The top four seem like locks." I say this now because, yeah, the top four seem like very likely nominees. Saldana basically already has this award won, Grande has been nominated for just about every precursor you could think of, Rossellini and is a beloved veteran "due" for her first nomination (even though she's in the movie for about 5 minutes total), and Jones is a previous nominee in the Best Picture frontrunner. If my logic is right (it may not be!), that leaves one nomination left between what is looking more and more like Curtis and Qualley. Curtis is probably one of the worst recent acting award winners but she's very well liked, while Qualley is a rising star whose movie seems to be surging of late. I'll be rooting for Qualley but I have a feeling it'll be Curtis snagging the nom instead.

Wishful thinking: Brigette Lundy-Paine – I Saw the TV Glow, Adria Arjona – Hit Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain^
Yura Borisov – Anora
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice*
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Other contenders: 
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing*
Stanley Tucci – Conclave
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

Of all the categories so far, I feel most confident in this one. Like Saldaña, Culkin has this category all but in the bag for his first major role after Succession. (He's fantastic.) The relatively unknown Borisov is a key cog in what makes Anora work and should snag a nom. Pearce delivers a perhaps career-best performance in The Brutalist and should secure his first-ever nomination. Norton was my favorite part of the just-okay Unknown and should pick up his fourth-ever nom. Joining those four should be Strong, like Culkin for his first major post-Succession role, although his Trump-centric film might be a tough sell as he does his best to burn our country down here in 2025. If anyone were to play spoiler, it would likely be Maclin, who was partially the real-life inspiration for his film. Tucci and Washington both once seemed like surefire nominees but seem more like also-rans now.

Wishful thinking: Chris Hemsworth - Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Casey Affleck – The Instigators

BEST ACTRESS
Demi Moore – The Substance^
Mikey Madison – Anora
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pérez*
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths*
---
Other contenders: 
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here*
Angelina Jolie – Maria*
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl*
Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl*

Say it with me: four "locks" and a "who knows?" The statue appears to be Moore's to lose at this point after her showstopping acceptance speech at the Golden Globes—which is just insane given that she's in one of the gnarliest horror movies of the year. (She'd be totally deserving.) Once upon a time Madison was anointed as the future winner, but she'd be a worthy runner up—and someone who may return someday. Erivo is deserving of a nomination even if I didn't care for her movie (decidedly NOT a musical fan). I also don't hear good things about Emilia Pérez, but it's looking like I'll get to find out for myself. Joy. The final nomination is seemingly coming down to Jean-Baptiste or Torres, as megastars Jolie and Kidman have fallen by the wayside. This is a true coinflip, but I'm going with Jean-Baptiste, whose performance is supposedly a knockout in a movie that is likely more widely seen.

Wishful thinking: Zendeya – Challengers, Willa Fitzgerald – Strange Darling

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist^
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing*
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice*
---
Other contenders: 
Daniel Craig – Queer
Hugh Grant – Heretic*
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

This category is remarkably similar to Best Actress—clear frontrunner, three other near-locks, tough call for the fifth spot, some big names as also-rans. Here, we have Brody looking like a good bet for his second Oscar—and first nomination since that win in 2003. Chalamet's Bob Dylan impression (he's much better as a singer than an actor in the role) will be battling with Fiennes scheming cardinal (he's great) and Colman's acclaimed turn for second place. That would seem to leave one spot for either Stan or Craig (it would be great to see Grant nominated for another horror movie and Eisenberg is quite good, but neither seem to have much of a shot). I've only seen Craig's film, and he's excellent in it, but neither he nor the film seem to have much buzz, whereas I've been hearing a lot about Stan and his movie (for probably obvious reasons). So I'll go with him over Craig for that final spot—and he's more than deserving, from what I hear. I may have to see for myself soon.

Wishful thinking: David Dastmalchian – Late Night with the Devil, Aaron Pierre – Rebel Ridge

BEST DIRECTOR
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist^
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez*
Sean Baker – Anora
Edward Berger – Conclave
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
---
Other contenders: 
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light*
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two
Jon M. Chu – Wicked

This has become the toughest major category to predict, as the director's branch has a penchant for going a bit wild card, especially with international nominees. I've got three of them in the field—Audiard, who is almost assured a nomination; Berger, who seems safe for his next project after the well-regarded All Quiet on the Western Front remake; and Fargeat, who figures to be in a battle with Mangold for the fifth slot. Two other Americans, frontrunner Corbet and Baker, seem like locks. (Corbet would get my vote here, but I'd vote for Baker over him in Original Screenplay.) Fargeat vs. Mangold almost seems like a referendum of new Academy vs. old Academy. I have Fargeat and new Academy winning that battle, but the old Academy still surprises me sometimes (Curtis's Best Supporting Actress win a couple years ago comes to mind.) That said, true out-of-left-field nominees are always possible here, so keep an eye on Kapadia.

Wishful thinking: Luca Guadagnino – Challengers/Queer, Jane Schoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow

BEST PICTURE
The Brutalist^
Conclave
Emilia Pérez*
Anora
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
The Substance
A Real Pain
Sing Sing*
---
Other contenders: 
Nickel Boys*
All We Imagine as Light*
September 5*

Last year I actually got all 10 predicted nominees correct. I'm not expecting to repeat that, but I feel pretty good about the first nine here, with everything through Dune more or less a lock, and The Substance and A Real Pain are looking really good, too. Those would make a decent field, although like I said above not quite as strong as last year's, which had really only Maestro as a quasi–weak link. Frontrunner Brutalist, Anora, Substance, and Dune are all varying degrees of great, while Conclave and Pain are both very good themselves. Unknown was merely fine. I did not care for Wicked and am not holding out any hope I'll like Pérez. Fairly solid overall; there have definitely been worse Best Picture slates (I'm looking at you, 2021). Oh, and I haven't forgotten about the tenth nominee, which seems to be between Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. I obviously haven't seen either (hear good things!) and it seems to be a true toss-up. Going with Sing Sing due to seeing it on more predictions lists. I'm sure I'll wind up seeing both to be able to say which is actually more deserving.

Wishful thinking: ChallengersQueerFuriosa: A Mad Max Saga, Rebel Ridge

It's just after 10:00 p.m. here in Arizona, which is quite early for this post—it's usually not done until after midnight. Progress! Tomorrow morning, I'll mainly be rooting for Challengers to get nominated for anything (it seems to have a great shot in Best Score). My true #1 of last year, The Beekeeper, will obviously be rudely shut out. I'll write more about those two and more in my annual Fake Oscars in the next few weeks. For now, my number to beat from last year is 40/45, which I doubt happens. I'll be happy with 38/45 or so. We'll find out in eight hours or so! Thanks for reading in the meantime.

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Algorithmic Echo Chamber?: My Favorite 2024 Music

As is tradition, I'll open my usual year-end music blog post with a quick glance back at the major trend(s) in my music listening habits this year. Last year, the major theme was underwhelming releases by some of my all-time favorite artists. That doesn't really apply this year, as not too many of my all-timers released new albums. Less Than Jake (yes, really) put out an EP that I dug quite a bit, and the new Decemberists album was pretty solid. Spoilers: Kendrick Lamar's new album was outstanding. None of the other albums in contention for AOTY were from longtime favorites, though (although a few of them could certainly end up as such in a few years).

No, the major trend this year was somewhat in the opposite direction: the number of "new-to-me" artists in this space is WAY down. Last year, artists like Joy Oladokun, Noah Kahan, The Beaches, Bully, and Hot Mulligan appeared here, with the latter a major contender for both AOTY and SOTY. This year, there are no new-to-me contenders in either of those categories, with only a meager handful sprinkled in the other categories. If I tried to do a Best New (To Me) Artist category (great idea in any other year!), I don't think I'd really be able to fill it. And, besides, the winner would clearly be Chappell Roan... whose album actually came out in 2023. (Not that stopped the Grammys from nominating her for Best New Artist. Forever the worst major pop culture awards body.)

So what does this mean? Am I finally, actually, irrefutably too old for new music (like I first thought back in 2017)? Maybe. Or is there just less good new music being released these days? Possibly, but I doubt it. No, I suspect there are two main culprits: 1) Spotify algorithms, and 2) my avenues for discovering new music have become more and more limited.

I do almost all of my music listening on Spotify, and instead of listening to tons of new and cool and hip artists, I instead listened to a lot of... well, a lot of what I listened to. According to my Last.FM (yep, I still keep up with mine in the year of our lord 2024), three of my top five artists were Waxahatchee, Maggie Rogers, and Kacey Musgraves. And I'm pretty sure the reason for that is simple (and somewhat concerning): they all kinda sorta sound a bit similar, and Spotify's algorithm likely played the other two after I finished listening to one of them, like some ouroboros of country/folk/pop–tinged singer-songwriters. I suspect that's also why there's so much Alkaline Trio/Laura Jane Grace/The Menzingers on there as well. Spotify is just one big ol' echo chamber now, isn't it?

Not only are my listening habits being influenced by goddamn Al Gore rhythms, but they are also decidedly NOT being influenced by real people like they used to be. Five or ten years ago, I would have had a much larger network of real-life friends to trade music recs with as well as plenty of reliable means to find new music recs online. By now, both of those wells have mostly dried up, unfortunately. I still have almost all the same friends (I think), but music doesn't come up as often in conversation now that we're in our 30s and 40s, and our tastes have probably diverged anyway. I'll still trade the occasional rec with my brother or fiancée (life developments!), but that's about it. (And my tastes don't 100%—or even 50%—align with theirs either.)

Online, the old reliables used to be the AV Club or Grantland. I've never found any kind of adequate replacement for those two once stalwart pop culture sites. (Never been a Pitchfork or Ringer guy.) I still do keep up with some of my favorite music writers from those days (especially Steven Hyden, my spirit animal), but the rapid deterioration of Twitter has made that exponentially more difficult. One thing I usually do toward the end of the year is scour all the big year-end lists (yes, including Pitchfork), and I did find a ton of promising new-to-me artists: Good Looks, Trace Mountains, Liquid Mike, CLIFFDIVER, Wishy. But I haven't yet spent enough time with those albums and artists to include them in this blog post.

So I guess my music goal in 2025 is less to be less reliant on algorithms (and maybe get away from Spotify entirely—yikes) and more actively seek out new music from real people, whether they be IRL or online. Sounds like a good plan to me! Anyway, that preamble was way longer than usual, so let's get into the actual music I dug the most in 2024, shall we?

* = saw live this year

Best Punk (or Punk-Adjacent) Album
Aaron West and the Roaring Twenties – In Lieu of Flowers
Alkaline Trio* – Blood, Hair, and Eyeballs
Amyl and The Sniffers – Cartoon Darkness
Frank Turner – Undefeated
Laura Jane Grace – Hole in My Head
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Also enjoyed: DEADLETTER – Hysterical Strength, Less Than Jake – Uncharted

Last year was an embarrassment of riches for fans of punk (or punk-adjacent) music. This year, not so much. I had a somewhat hard time filling this category, and there's certainly nothing here that's as good as the Hot Mulligan or Sincere Engineer records from last year. There's also not much that's truly "punk" here—DEADLETTER (h/t to the baseball writer Keith Law's newsletter) is more post-punk, LTJ is ska, Aaron West is more emo/folk (albeit certainly punk tinged), and Frank Turner has definitely softened a ton since his punkier days. (The rest seem to fit the bill, though.) But genres aren't super important, and these artists all fit well enough under the same umbrella, so let's dive in.

  • We'll do a quick alphabetical lightning round before the winner. I'd listened to Aaron West a bit before this year, and I've enjoyed getting to know The Wonder Years better in recent years, but this was the first Aaron West album I've really listened to—and it's pretty great! Lush arrangements (love the strings and steel guitar), strong songwriting, and Campbell's typical committed vocals. "Roman Candles" and, especially, the title track are absolute standouts.
  • I don't think an ALK3 album has truly grabbed me since probably 2008's Agony & Irony... and that trend continues this year. Like their previous several albums, there's plenty to like here (the title track and "Versions of You" are great) but the album as a whole isn't particularly memorable. But in a relatively weak year for this category, this one sneaks into the field.
  • Amyl and The Sniffers is basically a new-to-me band this year. I met up with a cousin of mine last year sometime and he mentioned this band, so I think I gave them a cursory listen or two at the time. Well, Al Gore and His Rhythms must've been paying attention and served up their feisty new album on Spotify. It's mostly snarling vocals and guitars and raucous percussion ("Jerkin'," "Chewing Gum") but they can hit a nice groove as well ("Big Dreams"). Hella fun stuff!
  • Turner's album also likely wouldn't have made the field in a stronger year—and it probably barely belongs here anyway. It's very strummy with plenty of ballads, and even the upbeat numbers are more like powerpop. But he still gets lumped in with the punks sometimes, so I'm slotting him here. His new one isn't quite on the level of 2022's FTHC, but tracks like "Letters" and "No Thank You for the Music" are very good.

That brings us to the easy winner here, Laura Jane Grace and her exuberant yet introspective new album, Hole in My Head. There are buoyant, retro-punk jams like the title track, "I'm Not a Cop," and "Punk Rock in Basements" combined with acoustic strummers like "Dysphoria Hoodie," "Cuffing Season," and "Mercenary." You've gotta love an album that fits ACAB screeds, Red Hot Chili Peppers references, George Harrison riffs, and gender dysmorphia into just 25 minutes. It feels a lot like the latter (post-transition) Against Me! albums, which is some of Grace's best material. I fell off a bit with her after that, but I plan on checking out her previous two solo albums more in depth now. And, obviously, whatever comes next.

Best Indie Pop/Rock Album
Charly Bliss – Forever
Japandroids – Fate & Alcohol
Los Campesinos! – All Hell
Sammy Rae & The Friends* – Something For Everybody
Sleater-Kinney – Little Rope
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Also enjoyed: Beabadoobee – This Is How Tomorrow Moves, The Decemberists* – As It Ever Was, So It Will Be Again

More fun with genres! This category is mostly just what doesn't obviously fit into either of the other two genre categories—no punk leanings here (although Japandroids and Sleater-Kinney are close), and these are all groups that don't fit neatly into the singer-songwriter category. But they all definitely fit under the ever-nebulous "indie" umbrella, so we're going with it. Again, I'll try to keep the non-winner write-ups relatively brief and go alphabetical.

  • I was lucky enough to see Japandroids live when they were touring for Celebration Rock at a pretty small venue in Tempe many years ago. Nothing they did before or since reached the highs of that epic opus (my #2 of 2012), but their final album tries is damnedest. Lead single "Chicago" had my hopes through the roof, and while the album as a whole didn't quite live up to that promise, it's probably right on the level of their previous album, 2017's Near to the Wild Heart of Life (AOTY HM that year, about where this one will land).
  • I think I would probably count Los Campesinos! as a new-to-me artist in 2024. I had certainly heard of the Welsh indie/rock/emo band previously, but I'm not sure I'd ever listened to more than a handful of songs here and there. Then I think I spotted them in my Release Radar Spotify playlist and gave their new album a whirl—and I dug it quite a bit. It's a little bit Arcade Fire, a little bit Coheed and Cambria, a little bit, I dunno, Tigers Jaw? It's an album—and group—I need to spend more time with, which I very much look forward to.
  • I first encountered Sammy Rae & The Friends in 2022 thanks to my then-girlfriend (now-fiancée), back when they were only putting out singles/EPs. Despite that, they will won their category that year. Their full-length debut didn't quite manage the same feat this year. Don't get me wrong, it's a great record, but I think I have a hard time thinking about it like an album since it was mostly released as singles beforehand (which seems to be their MO), and it also doesn't quite *feel* like an album to me either (the songs and styles are so disparate). But it's got a couple of my favorite songs of the year ("Thieves" and "Coming Home Song") and will figure in the AOTY race anyway.
  • The same old girlfriend that introduced me to Japandroids also introduced me to Sleater-Kinney. Well, that's not technically accurate—I knew of the band because of this all-time great SNL sketch, but I'd never actually listened to them before. They obviously rule. They're now down to a duo and this record is no Dig Me Out or All Hands on the Bad One, but Carrie Brownstein and Corin Tucker still totally wail. Especially on the first five tracks, with "Hunt You Down" as the true highlight of the album.

It seems fitting that Charly Bliss would have one of my favorite albums this year, as I first encountered them in 2017 by scouring year-end lists like I described above. And just like this year, back in 2017 I was complaining about not finding enough good new-to-me artists that year. Well, just two years later they had my #2 album that year with the outstanding Young Enough. It look them five years to put out another album, but Forever is just as good—if not better—than Young Enough. I will (spoiler alert) have more to say about it below, but for now suffice to say that it was an easy winner in this category with its bouncy riffs, sleek production, and Eva Hendricks' indelible lyrics and vocals.

Best Singer-Songwriter Album
Kacey Musgraves – Deeper Well
Katie Pruitt – Mantras
Maggie Rogers – Don't Forget Me
MJ Lenderman – Manning Fireworks
Waxahatchee* – Tigers Blood
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Johnny Blue Skies – Passage Du Desir, Katie Gavin – What a Relief, Soccer Mommy – Evergreen, Zach Bryan – The Great American Bar Scene

As mentioned in the intro, this is the "genre" I listened to most this year. Waxahatchee was by far my most-listened artist, and Rogers and Musgraves weren't too far behind. Some of this was due to Spotify algorithms, sure, but the artists here are all exceedingly pleasant listens that were very easy to throw on sitting at my computer working in the afternoons. Which is probably how/when I listen to music the most these days (that and on the elliptical at the gym). Mostly gone are the days of listening to music while driving around—I work from home (so no commute) and on the short drives to the store or gym or wherever, I usually listen to sports or FM radio. These albums would be great driving music, though. On to the blurbs.

  • I've always been a bit of a fan of Kacey Musgraves, one of the biggest names (if not the biggest) to appear in this year's post. I don't think I listened to her first album much, but I enjoyed Pageant Material, and "High Horse" from Golden Hour made an appearance here in 2018. Star-Crossed never grabbed me a few years ago, but Deeper Well absolutely did this year. She just seems like she's at the heights of her powers on this record, and tracks like "Cardinal," the title track, and "The Architect" received a lot of spins for sure.
  • Katie Pruitt also has one previous appearance here, an HM shoutout in 2020 for Expectations. I had high hopes for her follow-up after hearing "White Lies, White Jesus, and You" earlier in the year—such great songwriting, plus a killer guitar riff. I wasn't quite as wowed by the album overall, but there were enough strong songs like "All My Friends" and "Worst Case Scenario" to get a nomination here.
  • The Maggie Rogers (HMs appearances in 2019 and 2022) record *is* an example of an album that lived up to the promise of an early single. That single was "So Sick of Dreaming," easily one of my favorite songs of the year. I'll have more to say about it later (spoilers), but the album itself could have easily won this category. It feels like it should have been a huge breakout for Rogers, a songwriter's showcase with scorchers like "Drunk," "The Kill," and "On & On & On" that should've made her as big as Musgraves. Maybe her next album? It'll at least be eagerly anticipated by me, if no one else.
  • The much-beloved MJ Lenderman album was actually my last inclusion here—I'm just not quite as enamored by his slacker-poet aesthetic as most seem to be. But I wound up including it largely on the strength of two songs: the sardonic himbo takedown "Wristwatch" and omnipresent-in-indie-circles "She's Leaving You." The fact that he features on SOTY contender "Right Back to It" with Waxahatchee doesn't hurt matters, either. I very much doubt I'll revisit the album as a whole, but those two songs will have some staying power, and I'm at least intrigued by what he does next.

Speaking of Waxahatchee, it was going to be damn near impossible for anyone to top her for her follow-up to 2020's tour de force, Saint Cloud, which is probably the album of the decade as we near the halfway point of the 2020s. Tiger's Blood is, of course, not quite on that level (almost nothing is!), but it's still an AOTY contender and the winner here, with the Maggie Rogers record not all that far behind (and then a big gap before the other three). It also plays *great* live—that was probably my favorite concert of the year. Now, let's see if Katie Crutchfield has another masterpiece in her. (There's a strong possibility that she does.)

Song of the Year
"Back There Now" – Charly Bliss
"Coming Home Song" – Sammy Rae & The Friends*
"In Lieu of Flowers" – Aaron West and the Roaring Twenties
"Punk Rock in Basements" – Laura Jane Grace
"So Sick of Dreaming" – Maggie Rogers
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Honorable mentions: "Bored" – Waxahatchee*, "Chicago" – Japandroids, "Obsessed" – Olivia Rodrigo, "Starburned and Unkissed" – Caroline Polachek, "Swear to God That I'm (FINE)" – Winona Fighter

This was a tough field to narrow down to five, with not much of a gap at all between the final 2-3 songs in the field and most of the HMs. The Japandroids, Rodrigo, and Waxahatchee songs were all in the #4 or #5 spot at one point before I settled on the final field. Before I get to the blurbs, I wanted to give a special shoutout to what is probably the best band name I've heard in a while: Winona Fighter. They're a new pop-punk band out of Nashville with a female vocalist (I've got a type) whose upcoming debut in February is probably already the frontrunner for 2025 AOTY. They rule. Anyway, back to 2024.

  • Charly Bliss was always going to have a nominee here, and I almost went with "Nineteen," a ballad (with a sweet sax solo) that feels like a companion piece to the Young Enough title track, which almost won SOTY back in 2019. Instead, I went with what the youths would describe as a "bop" in "Back There Now," which is actually the track right before "Nineteen." It's got a bubbly, video-gamey synth line, cheer-squad vocals, and is absolutely irresistible—just like the album as a whole.
  • Sammy Rae lands a nomination here for the second time in three years. I think "For the Time Being" is the better song, but "Coming Home Song" has maybe the best chorus she's ever written. She's maybe my favorite *singer* right now, and this is just a perfect showcase for her powerful, elastic voice. I think she turns the word "falling" into about 10 syllabus and it's just fantastic. Really great live song, too, complete with crowd participation reminiscent of a Ben Folds Five concert (he was obviously not the first to do that). Looking forward to the next time she comes to town, and to whatever she does next—be it 17 more singles or another actual album.
  • A True Fact™ about me: Adding horns to just about anything makes it better. (I mean, see above.) So if you take The Wonder Years' Dan Campbell's emo-folk side project that already has keys *and* steel guitar, and then add horns? Yep, that shit rules. That's never more apparent than the title track to their latest album, which has one of the most epic horn lines since the heyday of 3rd-wave ska, plus just a massive, soaring chorus. This was the #2 here and one I feel I'll keep returning to as the decade goes on.
  • As mentioned above, I went back and forth between several tracks for the final slot or two here, and this slight-seeming (2:09) track from Grace wound up being the final nominee in this field. It doesn't have the epic classic rock chorus of the Japandroids track or the "shoot this directly into my veins" quality of the Rodrigo track, but what it does have is an irrepressible riff, handclap percussion, boisterous chorus, an a "Whoa-oh-oh" outro. What more do you need? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. The most purely fun song of the year.

Have you ever heard a song for the first time and were like, "Oh yeah, that's obviously one of my favorite songs"? That was my reaction to hearing "So Sick of Dreaming" by Maggie Rogers for the first time. More specifically, I felt like the Jewish record producers hearing "Walk Hard" for the first time. Like I said above, I definitely liked Rogers before this, but this song—and album—just seemed so... assured and attuned to my taste that it landed like she'd been a longtime favorite. (Which she very much might prove to be!) But in a category dominated by awesome choruses, hers was the best—by far. I don't watch a ton of music videos anymore (who does?), but I wish there was a real one for this song.

If you'd like a playlist or two of the rest of my favorite songs of the year, click the Spotify links below:

Album of the Year
1. Charly Bliss – Forever
2. Waxahatchee* – Tigers' Blood
3. Maggie Rogers – Don't Forget Me
4. Sammy Rae & The Friends* – Something for Everybody
5. Laura Jane Grace – Hole in My Head
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Honorable mentions:
6. Kendrick Lamar – GNX
7. Aaron West and the Roaring Twenties – In Lieu of Flowers
8. Kacey Musgraves – Deeper Well
9. Various Artists – I Saw the TV Glow (Original Motion Picture Soundtrack)
10. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Challengers (Original Motion Picture Score)

No blurbs for each individual album—I've said enough about them above already. But I did want to touch on some of the HMs before wrapping things up. The new Kendrick album was *thisclose* to cracking the top 5, but it came out too late in the year for me to really spend enough time with it. But after the first several listens, it seems like it might be his best since To Pimp a Butterfly, only my #1 album of 2015 and the decade as a whole. It seems like his feud with Drake got him back on his A-game (Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers had its moments but was a bit of a misstep, to me). The mid-album run of "reincarnated"/"tv off"/"dodger blue" is as good as anything in his discography. When I look back in a few years, I'll likely look like a dumbass for not including it in the AOTY noms, but this is where it wound up here just about a month after its release.

This past year was also a great year for movie music. Challengers, the latest collaboration between Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross and Luca Guadagnino, is maybe the duo's best since their seismic (Oscar winning and top-10 of the decade) soundtrack for The Social Network. It's tense, throbbing, constantly on the verge of explosion... just like the, uh... the relationship between the three leads in the movie. Not any part of my anatomy whilst watching said movie. Anyway, Ross/Reznor made the Oscar shortlist for Best Original Score *and* Original Song for credits closer "Compress/Repress" and would be easy winners for both categories if they existed in my Fake Oscars. But they do not so I'll honor them here.

Remember when movie soundtracks used to be events unto themselves? I vividly remember rocking out in nu metal bliss to the Dracula 2000 and Queen of the Damned soundtracks, even if I couldn't tell you a thing about the movies themselves. Event soundtracks were a thing even as recently as the Hunger Games movies, but the practice seems to have fallen out of favor recently. We used to be a country! But Jane Schoenbrun revived the trend for her excellent second feature. It's full of moody, ethereal jams from indie It Girls like Phoebe Bridgers, Caroline Polachek (SOTY HM!), Frances Quinlan (of Hop Along), Jay Som, etc., that would've caused riots in whatever the Gen Z equivalent of Hot Topic would be. I mean, there's a cover of "Anthems for a Seventeen Year-Old Girl" for chrissakes. I hope this practice comes back!

I wanted to end by saying that the AOTY call between Charly Bliss and Waxahatchee was razor-close. I had the Waxahatchee record atop my list for most of the year, but wound up switching to Charly Bliss as I was putting this post together. The highs of Forever were just a bit higher than the highs of Tiger's Blood, which tends to stay in a certain gear for most of its runtime, whereas Forever covers more sonic territory. And nothing beats that "Back There Now"/"Nineteen" double-whammy at tracks 3-4. I'll be forever bummed that I missed them when they played the Rebel Lounge back in October (had a stupid final project due for a class in my Instructional Design grad cert program).

All that said, it doesn't seem like either album—or the year in general—will go down in my personal annals. Both albums feel more like Hall of Very Good than truly Hall of Fame–type albums. And you know what? You don't always get a true HOF album every year. So this year feels more like 2019 and 2021—a lot of very good music, yes, but nothing truly transcendent that will resonate into the next decade and beyond. Unless, of course, Kendrick proves me wrong (would not be surprised at all) or some heretofore unheard-of artist like Chappell Roan has already released 2024's true AOTY. Which is exactly why I keep listenin' to music and writin' up these blog posts.

And I hope anyone reading this also keeps listenin' and keeps readin' what I write. Here's hoping that 2025 is better than 2024, at least musically-speaking. (There's almost no way it will be a good year otherwise for obvious reasons.) Happy New Year, y'all!